|
@Searing, I am glad that Minnesota is doing so well.
I assume that around here (Texas) the auto sales are much lower since nonessential businesses are closed and you can't do real shopping anywhere apart from grocery stores.
I am working remotely (hate the darn thing), so no driving, same for two other adults in my household.
Called my auto insurance (they already said they they would be reimbursing me 20% for two months) and pretty much declared that we only drive one car (infrequently) out of three. A very nice lady asked "So, you are not driving to work?" After the affirmative answer she said that she would indicate recreational driving for all vehicles, reducing the cost another 14% or so for the remaining 4 mo.
Bottom line: Just ask. They seem to be ready to cooperate to a degree. With low accidents due to little driving, they still have a fat margin, I would think.
Still employed peeps might be accumulating the extra dough because of too few spending opportunities-could be an underlying cause of stock market and btc recently found buoyancy or even some giddiness.
|
|
|
|
Does TWTR "work" as a stock? Not really. It works as a service, maybe even works great, but as a stock i say that it was ho-hum so far (down from 7 years ago). Nobody, except VCs, made any significant long term money on TWTR. |
|
|
|
Cuomo ordered random antibody testing a while ago.
And now the results are in.
21.2% or 1.68 million of NYC residents have had the virus.
That is really interesting data. So we should assume about 250k deaths from this thing. Not sure how you extrapolated. It's not 21% in the country, just NY city. Another way to extrapolate: NY-9.8mil, 21% infected, 10K death related to this disease. Assuming linear projection of infection/death at 80% infected-40K projected death in NY. NY/USA=approx 1/33, hence 33X40=1.32mil in US alone by the time herd immunity (at 80%) is established, unless vaccine or effective medicine (not fake one's) comes. I suppose that at some point we are going to have more generalizable numbers, but it seems way too damned soon to extrapolate much of anything from that... For example, if we are testing for the presence of infection, then there would be questions about how long they have been infected, which might help determinations about how likely are they going to get sick down the road and then death rates. Of course, death rates have a lot to do with both age and overall health - such as the presence of heart disease, respiratory disease, diabetes and weight (perhaps overall fitness). Another part of testing would be antibodies testing versus just testing if members of the populace are infected, and then extrapolating from that about how likely they are to get reinfected.. of course with the passage of time short term and longer term.. such as 1-5 years down the road. Some things are just difficult to know without the passage of time, yet there are always going to be things that can be done based on what information is known and also to adapt from new information, as well as NOT fearing testing or even focusing on vulnerable populations whether nursing homes or prisoners (no one likes to have any sympathy regarding prisoners, yet there is both a government obligation towards anyone that is institutionalized and also would seem problematic to just leave them to their devices and then have them become 100% infected - and thereby testing the herd immunity theories). Well, it is their projection (21%) from 1300 antibody-tested grocery store shoppers (in NY and NY state) IF test results are accurate. Re percentages of co-morbidities, I don't think that it would differ much (more or less than 30-50%) between NY, LA, SF, Chicago, Houston, DallasFW. |
|
|
|
Cuomo ordered random antibody testing a while ago.
And now the results are in.
21.2% or 1.68 million of NYC residents have had the virus.
That is really interesting data. So we should assume about 250k deaths from this thing. Not sure how you extrapolated. It's not 21% in the country, just NY city. Another way to extrapolate: NY-9.8mil, 21% infected, 10K death related to this disease. Assuming linear projection of infection/death at 80% infected-40K projected death in NY. NY/USA=approx 1/33, hence 33X40=1.32mil in US alone by the time herd immunity (at 80%) is established, unless vaccine or effective medicine (not fake one's) comes. |
|
|
|
Covid-19 new treatment ready   good attempt, but it is already "not found for CV"...so far. semantics, semantics |
|
|
|
|
Premier league returns on May 9 (for training)...and LFC would have it's well deserved title (95-99% chance) when the season concludes by July 31.
Champions League (the rest of the matches) will be played in August.
Football world would go crazy!
|
|
|
|
Covid-19 May Give Libra Life..... nooooooo that would be the worst outcome |
|
|
|
By that image he meant that this Trezor was tampered with.
Not sure if you can simply erase it afterwards, then reinstall the firmware.
Re hodling-I start to think (as years go by) that I don't want to hodl forever.
When pressure to sell becomes unbearable-give yourself a present and sell, say, 1%.
Unfortunately, Deribit is not available in US, but Ledgerx is, so maybe enter into a long term option contracts to buy or sell a small part.
So, if it rises above or drops below certain number (that you choose), a small portion would be taken away in lieu of cash.
I am too old school to give btc to blockfi and/or celsius as I don't think that it is safe.
Practically, it seems that all of us should be planning to sell portions of our BTC at some point, whether we are selling for various products or for cash in order to hedge or other related reasons, there should be some plans to sell (which might merely include reallocations from time to time). In other words, planning to live forever is not a realistic plan, and holy bejesus, don't most of us want to attempt to profit somewhat from riches that we have been acquiring through our lives (including the bitcoin portion of that value)? Yeah, maybe we are able to generate plenty of less valuable forms of value that we would spend those other forms of value first within gresham's law principles, but it still seems that ONLY the minority of us (especially if we are participating in a thread like this) would fit into a kind of category that we would make a BTC lifetime plan that does not involve any cashing out any of our BTC or attempting to benefit on a personal level in some regards from the likely asymmetrical profits that bitcoin is likely to bring (and continue to bring) to our richie status. Well, masses of bitcoiners from 2011-2015 won't be able to successfully (without lots of slippage) sell a significant portion, unless the number of bitcoin users rises from 30-50 mil to 10X that number. It seems that btc is having some difficulties passing that chasm. Did you get hit in the head, Biodom? Holy fucking shit.  You are repeating the same nonsense that I heard so many times in 2015 and 2016 regarding the purported inability for BTC prices to be sustained above $1k. Yeah, of course there are going to be BTC hype cycles and even extremes in which the BTC goes up and then cannot be sustained UP, but that does not even mean that every BTC HODLer from 2011 to 2015 is waiting in the same kind of circumstances. Do you think our various UPs and downs between 2016 and today have not already caused various HODLers from those times to adjust their BTC holdings, and some of them can sell all the way up in small amount or even sell at various points that others are not selling. Sure some will time the top and others will just HODL through it. There remains all kinds of variation, and just sounds ridiculous to assert that somehow bitcoin prices cannot be sustained and that mouse trap buyers are not going to come with our better mouse trap. You, Biodom, seem to be talking as if bitcoin has reached some kind of level of maturity, and sure a lot of the bitcoin naysayers get on those kinds of little limitations in their imagination and their belief that bitcoin cannot do it again.... so yeah, you can play the pessimism game all that you like, and surely, I am NOT banking on BTC has to go to $300k or anything like that, but still I am not going to feel that I got screwed if the BTC price ends up topping off at $30k and then comes back down to $10k for a few years... but I don't even believe that such less stellar performances are really that feasible given the fundamentals and the power of some of the current and seemingly credible BTC price prediction models. Yeah, sure some people like to assert that too much weight is being given to stock to flow and all of that and there are too many 14 year olds waiting for a BTC payoff based on the BTC stock to flow model, and of course, there is some of that going on, also, but there is also strong as fuck fundamentals in bitcoin, and the way that it was built is an amazing kind of paradigm shifting concept (new asset) that largely reaches erroneous conclusions when trying to compare bitcoin to other asset classes. So, you can attempt to be as "practical" as you like with nonsense assertions that BTC prices cannot be sustained over certain amounts because everyone from 2011 to 2015 is wanting to get rich, and that is fucking nonsense to try to attribute too many similar motivations in order to paint some unsustainability picture, when still the world likely still has in the neighborhood of 1% bitcoin adoption at best, and yeah maybe various institutions and other richer persons in the west are hoarding more than their fair share of bitcoin, but that still does not mean that the masses (whether institutions, governments or individuals) are not going to continue to be gravitating into bitcoin for the next 10 to 50 years, and sure is likely better if you do not sell all of your BTC thinking that certain theoretical BTC price points are not sustainable.. because you have been told that earlier adopters are going to be cashing out.. blah blah blah... Relax...breathe-in and out. I am not selling, but I am also not waiting for pie in the sky numbers. Some people were making fun of those who might sell at 25-50K (saying that they would feel bad when btc is 1 or 5mil), that's all. It surely can go up, or it could crater. If you asked someone on Jan 1 whether he/she think that oil would be -38 at some point in April (less than four months later), you would probably have gotten funny looks. Regarding all those WO bros who are chomping at SELL (at above 100K)-my comment would be: hold your horses, we have been in what essentially looks like a 2.5 year bear market, if you count from the top. Unless we go over 20K, longer term bull market did not materialize yet. In addition, we are approaching halving at much lower RSI than before. I wouldn't be totally surprised if we go to either 3K or 10K here. |
|
|
|
By that image he meant that this Trezor was tampered with.
Not sure if you can simply erase it afterwards, then reinstall the firmware.
Re hodling-I start to think (as years go by) that I don't want to hodl forever.
When pressure to sell becomes unbearable-give yourself a present and sell, say, 1%.
Unfortunately, Deribit is not available in US, but Ledgerx is, so maybe enter into a long term option contracts to buy or sell a small part.
So, if it rises above or drops below certain number (that you choose), a small portion would be taken away in lieu of cash.
I am too old school to give btc to blockfi and/or celsius as I don't think that it is safe.
Practically, it seems that all of us should be planning to sell portions of our BTC at some point, whether we are selling for various products or for cash in order to hedge or other related reasons, there should be some plans to sell (which might merely include reallocations from time to time). In other words, planning to live forever is not a realistic plan, and holy bejesus, don't most of us want to attempt to profit somewhat from riches that we have been acquiring through our lives (including the bitcoin portion of that value)? Yeah, maybe we are able to generate plenty of less valuable forms of value that we would spend those other forms of value first within gresham's law principles, but it still seems that ONLY the minority of us (especially if we are participating in a thread like this) would fit into a kind of category that we would make a BTC lifetime plan that does not involve any cashing out any of our BTC or attempting to benefit on a personal level in some regards from the likely asymmetrical profits that bitcoin is likely to bring (and continue to bring) to our richie status. Well, masses of bitcoiners from 2011-2015 won't be able to successfully (without lots of slippage) sell a significant portion, unless the number of bitcoin users rises from 30-50 mil to 10X that number. It seems that btc is having some difficulties passing that chasm. |
|
|
|
A friend of mine consolidated all his UTXO's in one and DELIBERATELY destroyed two words in his seeds.
So he's locked out from his funds, until a decent computing power comes at his hands (some time in the future required).
AND in any case cannot spend the coins overnight.
hard fucking core...wow that is some next level HODL right there o7 don't worry, his GF captured those two (maybe more) on her cell phone. |
|
|
|
Yeah all you need do is lock it all up nice and safe in a hardware wallet and wait 10-15 years 
WARNING: DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME A friend of mine consolidated all his UTXO's in one and DELIBERATELY destroyed two words in his seeds. So he's locked out from his funds, until a decent computing power comes at his hands (some time in the future required). AND in any case cannot spend the coins overnight. EDIT: Added disclaimer due to JJG concern. I created a private key and deliberately deleted the first character. I will have to wait until quantum computing reaches the insane amount of calculations it would require to figure out what my private key is. I hope I am still alive by then. ^^^that is hilarious.  |
|
|
|
|
By that image he meant that this Trezor was tampered with, obviously.
Not sure if you can simply erase it afterwards, then reinstall the firmware.
Re hodling-I start to think (as years go by) that I don't want to hodl forever.
When pressure to sell becomes unbearable-give yourself a present and sell, say, 1%.
Unfortunately, Deribit is not available in US, but Ledgerx is, so maybe enter into a long term option contracts to buy or sell a small part.
So, if it rises above or drops below certain number (that you choose), a small portion would be taken away in lieu of cash.
I am too old school to give btc to blockfi and/or celsius as I don't think that it is safe.
|
|
|
|
Its raining again ot oh
Supertramp
It’s not rain, it’s the salty tears of oil investors wishing they’d bought bitcoin instead. Some hot heads who bought may oil yesterday at -38 (if it was possible) and sold today at 9 made like bandits, but there were only 9k contracts traded. I don't even know if you can buy something at -38? |
|
|
|
Yes the mobile phone is described in just about every sci-fi book. I even have a sci-fi book from the late 1800s about a guy who finds himself in the year2000, and they get quite a few things right, for example the mobile phone and credit cards. They also got a lot of things wrong, no prisons (criminality is treated and cured in hospitals), public kitchens and public washingplaces makes servants and the likes unnecessary and so on. It's quite a socialistic kind of future actually. But the smart phone I have never seen described, I mean it's not even a phone, just a screen that can do just about anything you want if you have the app. I don't see a principal difference. Physical form always changes, and i am not sure about the 80ies, but star trek next gen had ipad-like forms (PADDS) on which they could do essentially anything. the only difference from the current cell phone is slightly larger size. https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2016/09/how-star-trek-artists-imagined-the-ipad-23-years-ago/google search star trek ipad-there are many forms, some resembling a large cell phone. like this: https://mikecanex.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/picardorangepadd.jpg |
|
|
|
Trading fees from lowest to highest: Kraken<Coinbase Pro<Gemini, but not by much (0.10% lowest, 0.35% highest)
Not quite. Coinbase Pro maker trade fee is zero, if you do $50million USD volume in a 30-day period. yea, but only for market orders makers. I guarantee that you would slip (be carried by coinbase) by more than 0.15% (around $10) on a large market order. Was that just a typo? Trade fee will never go to zero for market orders. Fee can go to zero for market makers (limit orders). yea, you are right, maker fee could be zero, taker never zero, hence market order on pro would always have a fee. So BTC/Crypto is still following the stock market up down and sideways..hardly encouraging...especially with the BTC having https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-clock/ only 20 days away. This whole world from finance to crypto and pandemic is beyond black swan event(s) it seems. Well, interesting as hell if you like 'horror' movies I guess. I wonder what the next month of calamities will entail? So BTC/Crypto 'decouple' from the stock market already, streak marks on my underwear are becoming a common event damn it!  Maybe this is how approaching Singularity looks like. take me, im ready  My kid ways saying that if aliens would show up soon, then we are definitely in a sim. Too many things are happening in a short period of time. |
|
|
|
So BTC/Crypto is still following the stock market up down and sideways..hardly encouraging...especially with the BTC having https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-clock/ only 20 days away. This whole world from finance to crypto and pandemic is beyond black swan event(s) it seems. Well, interesting as hell if you like 'horror' movies I guess. I wonder what the next month of calamities will entail? So BTC/Crypto 'decouple' from the stock market already, streak marks on my underwear are becoming a common event damn it! Maybe this is how approaching Singularity looks like. |
|
|
|
Barrel of oil equivalent = 6.1178632×109 J
Antminer S17+ 70TH/s rated @ 40J/TH
6.1178632×109 J/bbl x 600 bbl = 3,670,717,926,540 J
3670717926540 J / 40J/TH = 91,767,948,163.5 TH
How many bitcoin can I mine in 91,767,948,163.5 TH?
The probability that any give hash will lead to a valid block is 1/(232D), where D is difficulty
currently D = 13,912,524,048,946
So, 91,767,948,163.5x1012H x 1/(23213,912,524,048,946)/Block
= 1.5357666489943172022545931579071 Blocks (currently 12.5BTC/Block)
= 19.197083112428965028182414473839 BTC
Wow. I thought it would have been much more.
We're killing the planet!!
We're about to mine BTC900/day so that's 46.8821223895886 barrels per day, that's probably less than heating costs for one bank Ummm? It looks like about 390 barrels per block if the above numbers are correct. Even after the halving, this won't change unless the difficulty goes up. If we mined on oil, that would be 56,160 barrels per day. I think the vast majority of bitcoin is mined on cheap renewable energy like hydro or thermal though. It's mined on electricity. Thank god for the law of conservation of energy. (or at least thank Gabrielle Emilie Le Tonnelier de Breteuil) right, but not all of oil heat producing (thermal) energy is being converted to electricity. Some is lost as heat. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
