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3761  Economy / Speculation / Re: [poll] What Percent of your Net Worth is in Bitcoin? And why? on: February 07, 2013, 01:36:31 AM
About 20-25%.

I'm long-term bullish on Bitcoin as a thing, but since it's still a foetal market, I know there's going to be all sorts of fluctuations on the way up, many of them severe.

So I keep enough Bitcoin (and fiat) in exchanges to profit from those fluctuations.

That said, I recognize that I might be too starstruck by the Bitcoin concept to properly determine its worth as an asset, so I haven't invested any more heavily than that - I prefer to put most of my savings into sectors that correspond to the things I'd like to buy with them eventually (e.g. I'm saving for a condo, don't want to lose buying power, so invest in REITs).

That strategy of saving for things in related products makes a lot of sense.  Too bad you're just trading paper that has a nonzero chance of being unwound in a nasty fashion.
3762  Economy / Speculation / Re: [poll] What Percent of your Net Worth is in Bitcoin? And why? on: February 06, 2013, 09:39:57 PM
The asset value of my house is enough negative to cancel out all other assets, lol.

You shouldn't have overpaid Wink.
3763  Economy / Speculation / Re: Breaking(unconfirmed): THE system is hacked?4000 US bank executive info leaked. on: February 06, 2013, 09:39:23 PM
There is no conclusive proof that the hacker was affiliated with anonymous.

You don't get how anonymous works do you?

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_(group)

Membership
It is impossible to 'join' Anonymous, as there is no leadership, no ranking, and no single means of communication. Anonymous is spread over many mediums and languages, with membership being achieved simply by wishing to join.

Get it now?
3764  Economy / Speculation / Re: Breaking(unconfirmed): THE system is hacked?4000 US bank executive info leaked. on: February 06, 2013, 09:36:59 PM
There is no conclusive proof that the hacker was affiliated with anonymous.

You don't get how anonymous works do you?
3765  Economy / Speculation / Re: [poll] What Percent of your Net Worth is in Bitcoin? And why? on: February 06, 2013, 08:53:58 PM
50+%, but about 90% of it came from bitcoin in the first place.

I am confused, I think you mean to say you bought around $2 ?  Or did bitcoin used to be 90% of your holdings?

He diversified his bitcoin profit, same as I have.
3766  Economy / Speculation / Re: [poll] What Percent of your Net Worth is in Bitcoin? And why? on: February 06, 2013, 06:47:10 PM
I have no idea how to calculate what percent my bitcoin holdings are because my net worth is negative.  Fucking student loans.
3767  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 06, 2013, 06:39:19 PM
From Antal Fekete at 24hgold:

Quote from: Antal Fekete
The Chinese are alive to the fact that escaped the silver bugs in the West, that you can derive a silver income from your pile of silver by covered short selling, even while retaining physical control of your silver hoard.

That's not income, just money you aren't losing. Besides, if silver decides to go up, then you lose your pile being short.

I think the implication is that if they short sell it to someone in the West while still holding the physical they can quite easily steal it as soon as the markets start to get volatile.  "Sorry,we are bankrupt".... what are you going to do, fly to China and kick some ass?
3768  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 05, 2013, 04:58:20 PM
What the fuck is that wall guy trying to do?

I don't know, but someone should buy it all up.

Is Loaded still around?


I think it may just vanish if the bulls could ram onto the wall, I am just getting a bit annoyed by the non-movement of the price, coz I know the bears most likely can't stir up enough panic to push the price down.

you will panic after weeks of down trend, and seeing every support lvl fall just because it had been slowly pecked at...

You seemed to know so much about how panic feels like that you must be constantly tormented by it, well, that kinda explain your long streak of failures.

Did you guys ever consider maybe Adam takes the opposite of his real position publicly?  For him to make money he needs others to take the other side of the bet.
3769  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: The MAX_BLOCK_SIZE fork on: February 05, 2013, 04:34:12 AM
probably something ot aim to have in place before 1.0 is released... and since were closing in on .8... Cheesy

We're only 2 minor releases away!!!.... from 0.10
3770  Economy / Speculation / Re: A Japanese Candlestick Analysis on: February 05, 2013, 02:32:48 AM
is that a serious quote? because i see the usefulness of TA but i still think astrology is complete bunk.

Western astrology (the shit in the newspapers) is incorrect because it does not consider precession.  It was accurate at the time it was translated from vedic astrology, but now it is off by an entire sign.  Proper vedic astrology actually lines up with the positions of planets and is quite helpful for understanding the energies currently influencing the world.  Anyway, if you want to debate this again, this is not the place.  I doubt much good will come out of it since last time we both just gave up, but if you want to create a thread to discuss it maybe some new perspectives will show up.

if you're not even correct about where the celestial bodies in question are (western astrology), then it's double-bunk. but even if you know (vedic astrology), you still have to identify a mechanism or reliable effect through which their positions influence the personalities, thoughts, or tendencies of people.

if you can show that, feel free to start a thread and we can discuss the question of validity. otherwise, the basic premise of astrology is groundless.

Like I said, I'm not getting into this again here.  We've had the exact same discussion before.  I know where you stand.
3771  Economy / Speculation / Re: Breaking(unconfirmed): THE system is hacked?4000 US bank executive info leaked. on: February 05, 2013, 01:31:50 AM
I liked this line:

Quote
In 2007 the estimated average daily value of funds transferred via Fedline products was 2.7 trillion (an estimated 537,000 payments daily, the average was over $5 million per transaction).

Won't it be nice when the Bitcoin network handles that kind of volume?  Wink

If you just consider transactions we're doing over 10% of that:

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions
3772  Economy / Speculation / Re: A more in-depth BTC/USD analysis... on: February 05, 2013, 01:26:47 AM
Personally, I'm planning to buy a large amount of BTC right away. But I'm actually going to transfer it all to my new MtGox and exchange accounts to sell and hold in the form of fiat,

I'm a little confused why you'ld do that.  Doesn't that cause you to incur exchange fees three times?  Buying, selling and then eventual re-buy?  Why not transfer fiat and just pay exchange fees once?

How do you transfer fiat to MtGox and other exchanges without paying more than the exchange fee?
3773  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Upgrading from 3.2 gives Segmentation fault on: February 04, 2013, 07:35:52 PM
Basically you are asking for support for a distro that the producer no longer supports.  Unless you want to compile and install the dependencies you need at the newer versions you are SOL.
3774  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Upgrading from 3.2 gives Segmentation fault on: February 04, 2013, 07:34:08 PM
See this is one problem with linux (the other being that distributions make their own tools that should be standardized; yum, apt-get, yast... etc), it's a big mess to update after service life ends and even before because of spaghetti dependencies on shit that never works as expected if you touch one straw... So my solution as a software developer is to upgrade versions of dependencies ONLY when it's really really necessary.

So basically latest bitcoin is useless to me here...

I actually have SuSE 11.2, so which version of bitcoin uses QT 4.5.3 or older?

Keeping your software up to date not only makes your life much easier, it makes your data much safer.  I would sign transactions by hand before I used a distro that old to hold a bitcoin wallet.  There are way too many known exploits for the code you are running.

Rolling releases and constant updates FTW.  I love Arch Smiley.
3775  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [ANN] cbitcoin 2.0 - A Bitcoin Library in C on: February 04, 2013, 07:27:36 PM
Hi GMD1987. Thanks for trying it out. I make all warnings into errors to help spot problems (warnings easily go unnoticed otherwise). I didn't get this since I'm using 64-bit. I'm assuming the correct way to suppress this would be to use "-Wno-pointer-to-int-cast" so I'll add this to the makefile now.

testCBNetworkCommunicator is sometimes problematic. I'm going to go through all the tests and run them with valgrind to detect any problems I've missed so far.

I don't think that code is doing what you think it is doing unless you are trying to do something very tricky.  If that is the case, you should document it with a few comments.

Do you really intend to convert the newly allocated pointer to an integer and then return it as a boolean?
3776  Economy / Speculation / Re: 'dat wall on: February 04, 2013, 07:17:49 PM
we can all guess who ultimately paid for that funky move

raises hand, lower head in shame
3777  Economy / Speculation / Re: A Japanese Candlestick Analysis on: February 04, 2013, 07:15:15 PM
is that a serious quote? because i see the usefulness of TA but i still think astrology is complete bunk.

Western astrology (the shit in the newspapers) is incorrect because it does not consider precession.  It was accurate at the time it was translated from vedic astrology, but now it is off by an entire sign.  Proper vedic astrology actually lines up with the positions of planets and is quite helpful for understanding the energies currently influencing the world.  Anyway, if you want to debate this again, this is not the place.  I doubt much good will come out of it since last time we both just gave up, but if you want to create a thread to discuss it maybe some new perspectives will show up.
3778  Economy / Speculation / Re: [poll] - The U.S. Dollar Collapse Is Accelerating on: February 04, 2013, 07:02:47 PM
Govs that issue debt in their own currencies (basically all modern economies) need to, over time, buy up most of their own bonds (with newly printed money) to drop rates on the debt to zero or nearly so, and then just print enough to cover ongoing fiscal deficits. So, yeah, fiat will continue to be devalued forever, but there's no inevitable exponential feedback loop (ie, an Argentina/Zimbabwe/Greece style bond crises) in there.

Think of it this way:
The US currently funds itself 2/3 through taxation, and 1/3 through debt issuance (which is mostly financed through QE; ie, direct bond buying). What would happen if the US just eliminated all taxation and funded itself ONLY through money printing? The money base would expand by about 20%/yr. Ok... 20% inflation forever. Again, no feedback loop mechanism. Just large, steady, inflation forever.

Edit: this collapses eventually as government slowly expands that 20% number, such that gov *becomes* the economy. But that's an entirely different issue than a debt/bond crises.

You just defined exactly how an exponential process works.

>>> a = 1
>>> for i in range(1, 50):
...     print a
...     a = a * 1.2
...
1
1.2
1.44
1.728
2.0736
2.48832
2.985984
3.5831808
4.29981696
5.159780352
6.1917364224
7.43008370688
8.91610044826
10.6993205379
12.8391846455
15.4070215746
18.4884258895
22.1861110674
26.6233332809
31.9479999371
38.3375999245
46.0051199094
55.2061438912
66.2473726695
79.4968472034
95.3962166441
114.475459973
137.370551967
164.844662361
197.813594833
237.3763138
284.85157656
341.821891872
410.186270246
492.223524295
590.668229154
708.801874985
850.562249982
1020.67469998
1224.80963997
1469.77156797
1763.72588156
2116.47105788
2539.76526945
3047.71832334
3657.26198801
4388.71438561
5266.45726273
6319.74871528

3779  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Experimental pre-0.8 builds for testing on: February 04, 2013, 06:34:31 AM
Dude, memory is way too cheap to put yourself through the torture of running a machine with 1 GB of ram.
Unless you're paying for a server such as a VPS.
In this case every MB of memory pushes the monthly cost up.

I keep getting crashes on my bitcoind install running an Electrum server.

From the debug log:
Code:
02/03/13 02:35:30 CTxMemPool::accept() : accepted a3fbde782d (poolsz 713)
02/03/13 02:35:31

************************
EXCEPTION: St9bad_alloc      
std::bad_alloc      
bitcoin in ThreadMessageHandler()      

This seems to happen every few days for me right now. Is there a memory leak that is causing eventual depletion?

bad_alloc.... do you have no swap?
3780  Economy / Speculation / Re: Would bitcoin be considered successful if it remains a niche market? on: February 02, 2013, 11:22:08 PM
I think Bitcoin will at best remain a niche currency. Because of exchange costs and exchange rate risk it can never compete directly against fiat-denominated e-payment schemes (credit cards etcetera).

However, if the block size limit issue can be solved (I was surprised there seems to be a significant group of people who want to keep the 1M limit for ever) bitcoin could be a relatively succesful niche currency. In that case 1BTC would be worth at least several hundred dollars.

How is a maximum of 0.6% exchange fee too high compared to credit cards?  Have you ever had a credit card merchant account?

Exchange rate risk will always be there, but merchants don't have to care since there are plenty of services that provide instant conversion.  Even with these services the fess are less than CC merchant fees.  However, if history is any indication, the exchange rate risk will continue to be less of a factor with time.

0.6% exchange fee means 1.2% round-trip (fiat to fiat). 1.2% is more than what most credit card processors take where I'm from. Debit cards are even cheaper at around 0.3% (Of course there are also subscription fees but they're peanuts if you have any kind of volume.)

what does that mean 1.2% round trip? Don't you just convert once at 0.6% from BTC to USD?

He means the customer buys the btc and the merchants sells them.  In reality, many transactions don't happen like that, but I was giving him the benefit of the doubt since I can make my point even with his overestimating assumption.
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