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3161  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 30, 2013, 08:38:13 AM
What part of "Wall Observer" am I CONSTANTLY misunderstanding? Smiley

Don't just observe the walls.  Be the walls.
3162  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 30, 2013, 08:33:40 AM
Things are moving...




Nothing gets by BearPig. This guy knows his stuff.

+1... ManBearPig is the wisest wizard
3163  Economy / Speculation / Re: New Forex Broker Offers Bitcoin Shorting via GOX on: April 30, 2013, 08:17:22 AM
http://forexmagnates.com/and-the-first-forex-broker-to-offer-bitcoin-trading-is/

What does this imply for the price?

How does an institution offer leveraged Bitcoin trading through another exchange?

I know bitcoinica did this and failed. Hoping someone can explain this.

Thanks

 Tongue


Down, down, then up, Up, UP.

3164  Economy / Speculation / Re: $1 Trillion Bitcoin on: April 30, 2013, 06:33:14 AM



I think it's inevitable that the value of all crypto-currencies combined will  far exceeed a 1 trillion dollar cap. Whether bitcoin does it will depend on how it fares against the competition over the next decade or two.

Please stay on topic.


I'd be interested to see the statistics for the adoption of domestic vs foreign children in the US.

If you really want to discuss adoption, please take it to the offtopic subforum and send me a pm. I regret mentioning that aspect of my life now since it has completely derailed this thread.

@OP

I think cryptopcurrencies are going to play a large role in the future of finances.  The keypairs and signing transactions part is exactly how digital banking has always worked, but now it is available to the masses instead of just the select few.  Bitcoin may or may not change the world, but I have no doubt that since the cat is now out of the bag cryptocurrencies will play a large roll in the future of economics.
3165  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today is gonna be madness! on: April 30, 2013, 06:25:16 AM
Where was this madness that I was promised?  Huh

Words are cheaper than bitcoins mate, when you see some posts here you'd think all of them are prophets Smiley

I'm here for the profits Tongue.
3166  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 30, 2013, 06:11:12 AM
yrral.net/arepo-2013-04-30.pdf
3167  Other / Off-topic / $1 Trillion Bitcoin on: April 30, 2013, 06:04:45 AM
If it does, I will finally be free from the stranglehold of student loans.  My parents promised to pay for my school, then blew all their money on the kids they adopted to fill the nest when I left.  I'm left with $20k in debt with an interest rate over 6%.  But, C'est la vie, I love my new brothers and sisters and wouldn't trade them for the world.

WTF !!???

Is this the new add on accessory ... kids from poor country's

Nope, they are all American kids.  There are plenty of abused kids right here at home who need help.  It took a lot to not add "you jackass" to that last sentence.  I really do care for my siblings, adopted or not.  I really don't mean any offense... I just consider them family.  I'm also intoxicated, so please keep that in mind before you get offeneded Tongue.
You and you're family are genuine humanitarians.



Thank you good sir.  I'm no saint, but I do find it hard ignore the suffering that surrounds me.

I just have to say that wasn't it your parents who adopted these kids?  Sure they are your brothers and sisters but it's not like you can really take credit for adopting them.

I just have to say you can go fuck yourself.  I have $20k in debt because my parents reneged on their promise to pay for school so they could adopt these children.  I have spent countless hours helping them to grow up.  They are my brothers and sisters.  Fuck you.

What have you ever done for the thousands of children who need a home?

Shithead.

Anyway, sorry for the outburst.  Can we get back on topic now?
3168  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 30, 2013, 05:54:19 AM
I can't figure out how to download that without getting a warning about malicious downloads.  If you email it to the address in my profile I'd be happy to throw it up somewhere without needing to figure out which download link is legit and which is an ad trying to get me to download malware.

testing it myself, it seems google chrome gives the 'this file may harm your computer' warning just because it is a pdf. i admit that i used a particularly ad-infested upload site -- if anyone knows of a better site, or has a server that can host the file for me, that would be helpful.

edit: is that what you were offering? i'm emailing it to you right now.
edit2: your email address appears hidden.

--arepo
Sorry, I thought it was public, I'll pm you.  I'd be happy to put it up somewhere less sketchy.
3169  Other / Off-topic / $1 Trillion Bitcoin on: April 30, 2013, 05:46:17 AM
If it does, I will finally be free from the stranglehold of student loans.  My parents promised to pay for my school, then blew all their money on the kids they adopted to fill the nest when I left.  I'm left with $20k in debt with an interest rate over 6%.  But, C'est la vie, I love my new brothers and sisters and wouldn't trade them for the world.

WTF !!???

Is this the new add on accessory ... kids from poor country's

Nope, they are all American kids.  There are plenty of abused kids right here at home who need help.  It took a lot to not add "you jackass" to that last sentence.  I really do care for my siblings, adopted or not.  I really don't mean any offense... I just consider them family.  I'm also intoxicated, so please keep that in mind before you get offeneded Tongue.
You and you're family are genuine humanitarians.



Thank you good sir.  I'm no saint, but I do find it hard ignore the suffering that surrounds me.
3170  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 30, 2013, 05:37:17 AM
Quote from: arepo
fractal analysis

with all this talk about fractal analysis, i haven't really explained much what the methods consist of. for this reason, and for reasons of transparency and accountability, i want to make the price report which i opened this thread with publicly available, as the projections and analysis it contains has expired some time ago. for anyone who wasn't involved and is curious to see its contents, i've uploaded it in pdf format for free download*: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Report [22 April 2013]

i just want to thank everyone who was involved again for supporting me in this project, and if i informed your profit, consider making a small donation to bitcoincharts, clarkmoody, and bitcoinity, as these are all services which i leverage intensely in my analysis.

--arepo

*please know that this is my own work and i do not permit profiteering off of it, only free dissemination and duplication.



I can't figure out how to download that without getting a warning about malicious downloads.  If you email it to the address in my profile I'd be happy to throw it up somewhere without needing to figure out which download link is legit and which is an ad trying to get me to download malware.
3171  Other / Off-topic / $1 Trillion Bitcoin on: April 30, 2013, 05:30:41 AM
If it does, I will finally be free from the stranglehold of student loans.  My parents promised to pay for my school, then blew all their money on the kids they adopted to fill the nest when I left.  I'm left with $20k in debt with an interest rate over 6%.  But, C'est la vie, I love my new brothers and sisters and wouldn't trade them for the world.

WTF !!???

Is this the new add on accessory ... kids from poor country's

Nope, they are all American kids.  There are plenty of abused kids right here at home who need help.  It took a lot to not add "you jackass" to that last sentence.  I really do care for my siblings, adopted or not.  I really don't mean any offense... I just consider them family.  I'm also intoxicated, so please keep that in mind before you get offeneded Tongue.
3172  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: April 30, 2013, 05:26:52 AM
everyone ready for the next leg up? breakout in three... two... one...

Ready !  Cheesy
That's probably a really bad sign ! Capitualtion ... what the heck ... I was just cmpletely wrong ...

BTW, what are you basing this latest prediction on ?

alcohol and greed Wink [notice the complete lack of substance or technical defense of the claim]

i was inebriated and shouldn't have really been on the forums or daytrading at all  Cheesy my bad.

passed out and sobered up, and what we're seeing now is a manifestation of this pattern:

it's hard to say, but some fractal analysis suggests that we're going to see a quick rise to about the last high ($165), a sudden correction, and then consolidation in that range for at least the short-term.

im working on making fractal analysis more rigorous (specifically, more precise) because clearly we fell a little short of my target $165, but i think it's very powerful that i was able to predict the 'shape' of the price so accurately. this was to be a second test of the fractal hypothesis and i think the result can be described as: "plausible". not evidenced explicitly, yet, but i'm excited to do more work on it.

Which way to break, up or down? 



I'm saying up  Wink

as for your question, the market seems balanced right now (indicators neutral). $120 held as anticipated and i doubt we're going to see sub-$120 coins any time soon. extending the above hypothesis, i do anticipate a consolidation period in this range ($120-$150) for about another 12 hours, at least, and then perhaps some serious price movement. unless things suddenly start looking bearish (large dump, etc), that breakout should be up, because sideways is very bullish for bitcoin at this moment.

what do you guys think?

--arepo

Sounds about right to me.
3173  Other / Off-topic / $1 Trillion Bitcoin (Adoption Discussion) on: April 30, 2013, 05:18:00 AM
If it does, I will finally be free from the stranglehold of student loans.  My parents promised to pay for my school, then blew all their money on the kids they adopted to fill the nest when I left.  I'm left with $20k in debt with an interest rate over 6%.  But, C'est la vie, I love my new brothers and sisters and wouldn't trade them for the world.
3174  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTCE seems ridiculously cheap. on: April 30, 2013, 05:13:16 AM
BTCE is selling Bitcoin for a lot less than MtGox.  In fact, for less than the buy order I have outstanding at MtGox.   Were it not for the old "If it looks too goood to be true, it is too good to be true." saying, I'd cancel the MtGox order and get 100 or so Bitcoin on BTCE.

This forum is full of people who are natural arbitrageurs.  How come this discrepancy exists?

Fiat's a bitch to move.
3175  Economy / Economics / Re: Western Union - First Large Corporation To Be Killed By Bitcoin on: April 30, 2013, 03:55:17 AM
Western Union is  looking too archaic to survive the rise of Bitcoin.

I mean, the first real-world killer app of Bitcoin is for overseas workers to send remittances back to their families without obsolete companies like Western Union stealing a large chunk of it in what amounts to an unfair tax.

What can Western Union do?
1) Adopt bitcoin and lose revenue
2) Ignore bitcoin and be made irrelevant
3) Fight bitcoin and lose

Western Union is in the living dead, the first bitcoin zombie!

or

4) change their business model

At some point (this will be the signal that we've achieved 'adoption' and that bitcoin will never fail) one of the big-boys (payment processors) will jump on the bitcoin bandwagon. . . It would be great if it were Western Union. They could retool their entire network to use bitcoins on the backend while at the same time reducing equipment costs and increasing profits (nobody is going to bat an eyelash at paying their standard fees for moving fiat to btc or vice versa). It would also open a new line of business for them when integrating bitcoin into their billpay and other features.

The block-chain would effectively replace their own server costs for actually conducting transactions. Maybe they could slightly lower their feels across the board and be even more competitive on price (due to btc transfers being so cheap to conduct). If they also offered wallet services they would eventually cross the line from being a payment processor into effectively being the largest bank in the world (at some point) and almost immediately the largest exchange.

One of the payment processors will do this eventually... but it's up to them to decide who.


Just be careful with that bolded part.  When we achieve 'adoption' is exactly when we will see the largest correction in bitcoin history.  After the masses ride through the one last boot shaking crash, we can finally have some semblance of stability.
3176  Economy / Economics / Re: Who ACTUALLY knows what they're talking about here? on: April 30, 2013, 03:51:05 AM
If you claim to have credentials in understanding virtual currency than what would you have studied?  Second life or World of Warcraft?  Bitcoin is a whole new world and let's face it, as a speculation vehicle the price is dependent on faith and news right now.  People still aren't able to predict weather and they have more to work with than Bitcoin speculators do.

Come to think of it mudflation might actually be the best thing to have studied when it comes to bitcoin.

The problems that the most educated 'economists' seem to have when it comes to bitcoin are many, I'll just point out a couple that frustrate me to no end.

1. DEFLATION IS BAD. This is based on not understanding that all the economic 'laws' and principles they've learned have been only been proven in an inflationary (debt based) currency. They will not always apply inversely with an deflationary currency. It doesn't completely invalidate these effects and in most cases something that somewhat resembles the inverse may probably applies, but there will be important differences.

2. OMG HOARDING. This comes from not really understanding the lack of a causal relationship between deflation of a deflationary currency and economic contraction. Causally this link simply isn't there. It's is however causally linked when we're talking about fiat (or any debt based currency).

3-8. The next 5 points I won't really go into, but they all involve not understanding that a deflationary currency will require much more agility on the part of financial institutions and businesses in general. This is by design. Bitcoin is much much faster than the existing banking system and we see evidence of this in how business is conducted with bitcoin (stocks dividends being paid on a weekly basis). The common mistake is a free market won't be able to compensate for this and business in general will breakdown.

To this silliness I say "pfft", I don't care if a business or even a sector of business goes out of business... the void will swiftly be filled by newer and more agile entities who will want to provide those missing goods and services. Sure it may ruin some people, but on average and over time things will get better for everyone.

9. BITCOIN WILL FAIL BECAUSE... I can't even really explain this one, but latching onto one issue and claiming it will kill bitcoin is just stupid in the extreme... in anything we should evaluate the good and the bad and weigh them against each other. My response is, "hey your agenda is showing'. I chalk this one up to fear mostly... and a clinging to old ideas rather than evaluating bitcoin for what it is... rather than 'what it could do' (which is kill financial institutions as we know them - end monetary oppression on a global scale - etc).



There was a good deal of understanding of deflation in historical economics.  Just not in recent times.  See, for example, Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations for a great discussion of the effects of technological progress on an economy. (hint: deflation and long term the only people who gain are landowners... capitalists see a short term jump in profits, laborers see the demand for labor, and thus their wages, drop).
3177  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Best way to get real $$ for Bitcoins? on: April 30, 2013, 03:38:26 AM
bitcoin is real $$

This.  Also, this thread probably belongs here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=8.0
3178  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today is gonna be madness! on: April 30, 2013, 03:26:12 AM
volumes have been extremely LOW.
$2 purchases swing the market a million dollars either way. strange

False

Buying Bitcoin
Amount to spend in USD: $2
Estimated purchase: ฿0.01474313
Slippage: ฿0.0000000

in fact, a million USD would get you ฿7228.77413498
Slippage: ฿136.08077738

and would only take us up $5

i wasn't referring to slippage necessarily.
i was referring to the .01/.02 orders that get executed either direction as a buy or sell just to get the price to change

Those only alter the difference between weighted moving averages (which neutralize such manipulation attempts) and other forms of moving average.  It's because bitcoin has so many inexperienced traders that it has any influence at all.
3179  Economy / Speculation / Re: I think it's time for me to move on on: April 30, 2013, 03:17:23 AM
I always knew you had a bunch of coin invested, otherwise there would be no point in you spending so much time trolling. Who will take over as lead troll on the forum now? It will seem like a piece missing if there's no one there to put us in our place.

Down with bitcoin!
3180  Economy / Speculation / Re: I think it's time for me to move on on: April 30, 2013, 03:15:24 AM
Dude.... quit giving a fuck about your community persona.  Worry about yourself, and post what you think.  Not what you think we want.
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