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3781  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Positive Bitcoin write-up on Zerohedge on: February 02, 2013, 11:20:49 PM
I don't know. Maybe you're right. At this stage I think it's a moot point though -- why destroy Bitcoin when you can control it? And why advertise your power and risk losing everything?
Because you can't print bitcoins at will like with fiat money. They want to protect their power to print money at will and defend their privileges. Destroying bitcoin does this and about losing... what, some millions of $? They have hundreds of billions!

Note that while controlling the majority of the Bitcoin network does not allow you to print Bitcoin, it allows you to raise fees arbitrarily. For example, you could stop processing transactions with a fee lower than 1 BTC.

So the evil master plan would go like this:
1. Invest in enough computing power to control the majority of the network, you control the blockchain now.
2. Stop integrating blocks mined by others in the blockchain.
2.5 Bitcoin is patched, other miners continue on their own chain.
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3. Stop including transactions with a fee less than X, forcing users to give larger fees.
4. Earn lots of transaction fees.
5. Invest transaction fees into more computing power in order to keep the majority.
6. The other miners will starve one by one as they won't be able to earn anything anymore.
7. BitGovcoin is now a monopoly which you own.
8. Bitcoin is still happily chugging along.
3782  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Positive Bitcoin write-up on Zerohedge on: February 02, 2013, 11:17:33 PM
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I think they would fail even if they attempted it
That is the problem. If they attempt they will of course succeed, since it is not hard at all.

You're welcome to your opinion.
3783  Economy / Speculation / Re: A Japanese Candlestick Analysis on: February 02, 2013, 11:14:55 PM
Because I'm guessing most traders live in time zones other than UTC. I imagine the majority are more US based. An analysis of market activity by time could show when most trading occurs. So the "trading day" so to speak probably doesn't coincide with UTC.
you made a assumption the data you see is on your time zone

No I never assumed that.

I guess my point is that using UTC as the timezone to determine the candles is kind of arbitrary but if that's what all the technical traders use and the technique relies on following the same patterns as other technical traders (the self fulfilling prophecy effect) then that's the best time zone to use. But I was wondering if you used a different time zone (e.g UTC+6 or something) then the candles might show a different pattern and those might provide better insights into how the market is going to move as that timezone might align more closely with the activity of the largest number of traders. 



Sure, there will be some differences.  The data is all available if you want to look at it.  It's just that most of the tools built by the community have standardized on UTC since all timezones are defined as an offset from UTC.

Yeah, I'm just interested from a theoretical point of view. Trying to understand how this type of analysis works and if it works why does it work. Sometimes seems more like astrology more than anything that has any rational basis. I'm not an active trader, more a buy and hold most/spend some type of bitcoin user.

"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"- JP Morgan
3784  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: February 02, 2013, 11:13:22 PM
I see $0.5 probability in 2014 higher than $100.

At that time, bitcoin blockchain will become totally unusable by regular user - only via centralized services like walletbit or whatever - which can be scam or shut down.

Roll Eyes  I'm not going to debate that with you again.  Have you still not tried the prerelease for 0.8?

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By that time I also see high odds of first serious legal impact with governments which may destroy most of centralized services and cash-out points.

Let's hope so.  Every other thing they have banned goes up in market value after it is illegal.

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And at that time most of holded bitcoins will be sold out on market in exchange to ASICs.

I really doubt most of the bitcoins are held by miners at the point.

You seem to view bitcoin as a circle jerk.  Unfortunately for your profits, you are wrong and bitcoin is more and more widely used throughout the world for a wider and wider range of uses.
3785  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Live debate tonight 7PM GMT - Gavin Andresen will be there on: February 02, 2013, 11:08:27 PM
direct democracy won't scale, but like everything else, there will be a technological solution. We just haven't developed him yet.

the technological solution is called liquid democracy and liquid feedback.

But democracy can be terrible if you're in the minority and the majority decides to trample on your rights.

Back then in anarchistic Spain (good doku), there were general assemblies, and the results of discussions were seen as merely recommendations. I.e., democracy without an executive branch.

Interesting, but we need a decentralized liquidfeedback because right now the server admin can cheat if they can figure out who doesn't double check their votes later.
3786  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Positive Bitcoin write-up on Zerohedge on: February 02, 2013, 10:49:40 PM
Don't they spend hundreds of billions in military each year?

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all you got out of it was some bitcoins that cost you more to produce than the average miner.
Lol. What is not clear "their aim is to destroy bitcoin, not profit"

It's perfectly clear, and as the beginning of that sentence stated, I think they would fail even if they attempted it.  Way to take things out of context and then argue with a point that wasn't made.
3787  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: February 02, 2013, 10:37:00 PM
Besides, I don't joke about <$2 call.

It has some probability. It's a double zigzag correction with impulsive wave C below $2 in 2014.

And $100 has some probability in 2014... but what about the next 11 months?
3788  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: February 02, 2013, 10:34:28 PM
In absolute value I don't go deeper than bullish people around go higher.

$50
$100
$1000
$100500

lol. Level of bulls greed is too high here. I just calm it down to show opposite side =)

Did you saw how few days ago in Bitfinex people borrowed USD offers 9001% a year? That was funny =)

Pigs will get slaughtered.

I agree with you there, but irrational bearishness will not succeed in talking down the bulls.  You have to give sane targets to be taken seriously no matter which side you're betting on.
3789  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: need help recovering a wallet.dat off a corrupt vmdk file on: February 02, 2013, 10:33:44 PM
Even if your raid looks fine, I would let the raid controller do a complete verify and check the SMART status of each disk. Maybe the controller had already resynced after an error appeared.
Are you by any chance over-allocating resources? Maybe your vm-storage ran out of disk space and when your vm requested swap it blew up.
Or, if you are using network storage (NFS, iSCSI, FC) the connection went away; which is essentially just like a disappearing drive. The OS will panic and the disks will be in an inconsistent state.
If you find a vswp file, try renaming it, booting and re-renaming it again.
You did not backup your vm's to another storage, right?

Also, I don't think you need to mount a drive to run that python tool which tries to recover keys. If you succeed mounting the partitions however, you can simply copy your wallet. The python tool only dumps the keys it can find if I remember correctly (it's somewhat like a brute-force search).

I only meant to set up the loopback to run the tool on in case it wanted an actual block device instead of a file.  You are right there is no need to mount it.
3790  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: February 02, 2013, 10:29:03 PM
haha :lolgraph:

I could agree with some bearish sentiment in the short term, but lucif always goes overboard.

Lucif anticipated the dip on the 24'th.  Calling the top is the hardest!

Nice top Roll Eyes

3791  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-01-30 Is Bitcoin Sharia Compliant? on: February 02, 2013, 10:17:19 PM
What is Sauron opinion about bitcoin???

He's all about centralized control, so I'd say not positive.
3792  Economy / Speculation / Re: [poll] - The U.S. Dollar Collapse Is Accelerating on: February 02, 2013, 10:15:14 PM

No the CAD is not doomed because Canada is a gold producer and mining for gold, silver etc., in Canada will boom. Here in Northern BC it is not uncommon for example for a contractor that used to service the lumber industry (US housing market) turn to service the mining industry instead.

Furthermore because of Canada's cold climate, I strongly suspect that Canada is also a net exporter of Bitcoins.

I'm jealous.  I loved the brief time I spent northern BC a few summers back.
3793  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: February 02, 2013, 10:13:33 PM
haha :lolgraph:

I could agree with some bearish sentiment in the short term, but lucif always goes overboard.
3794  Economy / Speculation / Re: A Japanese Candlestick Analysis on: February 02, 2013, 10:03:12 PM
Because I'm guessing most traders live in time zones other than UTC. I imagine the majority are more US based. An analysis of market activity by time could show when most trading occurs. So the "trading day" so to speak probably doesn't coincide with UTC.
you made a assumption the data you see is on your time zone

No I never assumed that.

I guess my point is that using UTC as the timezone to determine the candles is kind of arbitrary but if that's what all the technical traders use and the technique relies on following the same patterns as other technical traders (the self fulfilling prophecy effect) then that's the best time zone to use. But I was wondering if you used a different time zone (e.g UTC+6 or something) then the candles might show a different pattern and those might provide better insights into how the market is going to move as that timezone might align more closely with the activity of the largest number of traders. 



Sure, there will be some differences.  The data is all available if you want to look at it.  It's just that most of the tools built by the community have standardized on UTC since all timezones are defined as an offset from UTC.
3795  Economy / Speculation / Re: [poll] - The U.S. Dollar Collapse Is Accelerating on: February 02, 2013, 09:29:00 PM
The problem is debt.  I think we can all agree on that.

Inflation: There is not exit this way.  Debt gets cheaper to maintain, saving is stupid, people continue to leverage up and buy real assets and stocks since they have negative incentive to save.

Deflation: There is a door here, but it won't be pretty.  We need to remove the bad actors by bankrupting them.  Lessons can be learned, and behaviour will improve.

But really neither direction will work so long as the government guarantees loans.  Banks will continue make bad loans because the government removes all the risk.  If you could borrow at 0.25% and lend at 4-6% with guaranteed repayment, how much money would you borrow and then lend?
3796  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [Avalon ASIC] Batch #2 pre-Sale Thread on: February 02, 2013, 09:08:09 PM
When can I order? It would have been good to let people know to sign up for a wallet bit account first and open the store to let people get the WordPress account. I imagine things would have went much smoother.

People had several days notice regarding Batch 2 orders and the time was even pushed back a couple of days.  It was also known that WalletBit was going to be the payment processor.

There's a lot to be critical of regarding how Batch 2 ordering actually went, but lack of notice about the sale time and who the payment processor was aren't among those things.

I think the complaint is that there was no mention of needing either of these accounts.  For example, I don't need an account with bit-pay unless I'm a merchant.
3797  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-01-30 Is Bitcoin Sharia Compliant? on: February 02, 2013, 07:12:35 PM
Anti-religionists are just as hateful as the religionists they rail against.

Sounds like a clever comment but but I don't accept the presumption that either side are in essence hateful.  My impression from too many years following youtube theist v. atheist 'debates' is that where theists are angry they tend to talk of atheists as being evil, falsely (in almost all instances) accusing them of wanting to restrict their freedoms to practice religion.  Whereas atheist anger I think more generally is as a result of frustrations arising out of false accusations, of rewriting history and a failure to understand that demanding secular public institutions protects everyone equally.

Please don't lump all who claim to believe in God together.  People can call anything God and worship it.  That doesn't mean they have true religion or speak for all believers.  Don't take what the loudest say as what the majority thinks.

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There are many problems with any religious organization, but all of the sacred texts contain wisdom.
Indeed they do but the wisdom of the reader is a prerequisite to extracting the 'good bits'.  A religious leader/manipulator can also extract the bits that suit his needs just as a rose-tinted believer only sees the bits that support their world view.  More to the point a reader with the wisdom to spot the wise bits doesn't need the 'sacred texts' - I'd venture to say he/she is equally likely to enhance his/her wisdom from reading Shakespere than any sacred text!

That's my point... The problem is not the texts or faith itself, it is the human controlled organizations that use if for their own benefit.

As for wisdom per page, you may be right comparing the bible to shakespere, but the yoga sutras will crush any text in wisdom per word (the entire text is roughly 196 sentences and even just the first chapter will provide you with plenty to ponder for the next 10 years).

DISCLAIMER: the link above is just one single translation to English of an ancient text originally passed orally in Sanskrit.  Please use reason and explore other translations before you take things too seriously.
3798  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-01-30 Is Bitcoin Sharia Compliant? on: February 02, 2013, 06:59:31 PM
Anti-religionists are just as hateful as the religionists they rail against.
One of the most hateful actions of all is to threaten a child into believing a lie. How long would religions survive if they couldn't bully children into compliance?

When I left home and went to college, I did not believe in God.  After I started practicing yoga, I had some extraordinary experiences that led me to gain faith.  Since then I have studied the majority of the world's religions very intensely out of my own desire for self improvement.  I have a much better life because of these experiences, and threats were not a part of it.  That said, you have to apply reason to the texts or you will fail to understand.  English texts especially are so far from the original that sometimes the original meaning is lost.

When I have children, they will be exposed to all religions and will be taught to read them critically in the context of how they came to us from prophet to writer to council of trent(at least for the christian bible), to translator, to translator, to translator, and finally in our hands.

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There are many problems with any religious organization, but all of the sacred texts contain wisdom.
Every scam surrounds the central lie with camouflaged truths, otherwise they aren't believable.

I don't find scamming in the texts, just things that can be misinterpreted.  It is the organizations that tell you how to interpret it where the problem lies.
3799  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-01-30 Is Bitcoin Sharia Compliant? on: February 02, 2013, 06:16:44 PM
Actually no, it isn't exactly an important question  Cheesy

Maybe not to you, but the world is bigger than you.  It is a very important question to many millions of people.

Anti-religionists are just as hateful as the religionists they rail against.

There are many problems with any religious organization, but all of the sacred texts contain wisdom.
3800  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where do you think we are in the bubble? on: February 02, 2013, 06:00:42 PM

If the past is any indicator of how this market works, that leveling off will occur by overshooting the level-off point by a large margin, then undershooting it by a large margin, then bouncing around a few times before quieting down.

+1 that; BTC finds actual market price via wild swings. Hopefully, these swings would get milder with time, but for now we'll definitely overshoot.

All Data Log



No bubble here..

Look, swings already get a lot milder, I dont see an overshoot yet...

I'm a bit desperate, when do the BTC community will understand that log (%) scale charts are much more appropriate !  o.O

Been there, done that.  Log charts were all the rage in 2011.

Ah, but we have a longer history to put on those log charts, and doesn't it look nice, the curve is smoothing out, to me it looks like the price will stabilize somewhere between 30-100 USD per BTC.


I agree that is a reasonable target range, although I think (or maybe just hope) we will be a $20 long enough to pick up a few more BTC.
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