i have not checked all your prices and their durations but i am skeptical because you have mistakes. for example how are you saying from $2500 to $5000 was "not yet 2 months"!
first time bitcoin price reached $2500 it was 2017-5-24 which is exactly 4 months ago.
I'm not interested in the first time we hit $2500 (the ceiling), but the last time (the floor), providing a much more robust estimate of true doubling time. On Bitstamp this was July 26. Today is Sept 24. My 2 month estimate was off by 2 days. $1000 was also reached on 2017-1-1 which makes it nearly 6 months (7 days short) to $2500 but you said "4 months".
The last time it was $1000 was March 27 and $2500 was July 26. So my 4 month estimate is off by only one day. Cut a brother some slack?  |
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Let's project.
Average "permanent" doubling time over the last 5 years is just over 6 months. This includes a 2 year doubling from $100 to $250 in 2013 to 2015.
Price has remained above $2500 since: July 2017 (May still be tested.)
Will remain above $5000: Jan 2018
$10,000: July 2018
$20,000: Jan 2019
$40,000: July 2019
$80,000: Jan 2020
To be conservative, if average doubling time doubles to 1 year instead (which seems silly considering the doubling trend has been halving the last couple years), then:
Price will remain above $5000: July 2018
$10,000: July 2019
$20,000: July 2020
$40,000: July 2021
$80,000: July 2022
And if we project the longest doubling time of 2 years henceforth:
Price will remain above $5000: July 2019
$10,000: July 2021
$20,000: July 2023
$40,000: July 2025
$80,000: July 2027
Frankly, I'd be happy with any of these scenarios.
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In the last 5 years, Bitcoin has "permanently" doubled 9 times, from $5 to $2500. This includes a 2 year bear market. If it doubles 9 more times in 5 years, that would put us right around $1,300,000. If we are a little more conservative and say the doubling rate halves, so only 4 or 5 more doublings, that would bring us down to only $40,000 or $80,000. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2203360.0 |
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Doubling times might be another way to look at it...
Approximate time to "permanently" double:
from $5 to last time it ever dipped below $10: 7 months
$10 to $25: 4 months
$25 to $50: 2 months
$50 to $100: 6 months
$100 to $250: 2 years (!)
$250 to $500: 10 months
$500 to $1000: 8 months
$1000 to $2500: 4 months
$2500 to $5000: (not yet: 2 months and counting...)
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Talk about an exponential time series... Personally, I think Bitcoin owes $3xxx at least another month or two before waving goodbye forever.
Nice with the words right there and you are predicting that bitcoin will be bye bye after only two months? where is your proof saying such FUD on this forum, you yourself are talking about the price of bitcoin on the many years right now and you are thinking that bitcoin's going to end that way? well I will tell you that bitcoin's price on the upcoming 3 years will be $100,000 mark value and nothing can stop it, but the fake news that have been rising recently have ruining the bitcoin's value and as of now the value is at $3600 and resisting to go up for now. Before waving goodbye to $3xxx forever! Bitcoin itself is here to stay. |
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Here's some healthy price perspective for you... Approximate time BTC price has been between: 0-$1000: 8 years $1000-2000: 5 months $2000-3000: 11 weeks $3000-4000: 26 days (or only 16 days leading up to Sept 1 ATH, pre-"China FUD") $4000-5000: 37 days Talk about an exponential time series... Personally, I think Bitcoin owes $3xxx at least another month or two before waving goodbye forever. Edit: quoting my post below: Doubling times might be another way to look at it... Approximate time to "permanently" double: from $5 to last time it ever dipped below $10: 7 months $10 to $25: 4 months $25 to $50: 2 months $50 to $100: 6 months $100 to $250: 2 years (!) $250 to $500: 10 months $500 to $1000: 8 months $1000 to $2500: 4 months $2500 to $5000: (not yet: 2 months and counting...) Edit: quoting my plot below: The last 10 floor to floor Bitcoin doublings since Nov 2012, now in more precise graphical form on a log-linear plot using Bitstamp pricing. I arbitrarily chose base 5 because it fits this plot well. Base 2 would have the same number of doublings. Average doubling time: 6 months Shortest doubling time: 1 month ($20 to $40) Longest doubling time: 18 months ($80 to $160) The Mt Gox bubble is clearly disruptive to trend. Since recovery, doubling times have only accelerated. This kind of hyperbolic growth is typical of a technological singularity. Think color tv, mobile phones, or the Internet. At this scale, it's really hard to see the recent hardfork and China FUD having much of an impact at all.  |
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As Bitcoin matures, seeing these corrections is like watching an over-tired child cry. Just gotta let it all out, spasm after spasm, the sooner and harder the better.
Strangely relaxing to watch. Because we all know how we feel after a good cry.
Euphoric.
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I don't know Why but i Just want to make same ATH guess like last time Rules ....: the one with the right date of ATH gets .25 btc paid directly (UTC time) (closest to ATH.....) I look to Every page in here from now When a date is picked first iT cannot been taken again ( 1st =1st) Another .25 btc is rewarded for ho makes best of technical analyse of the time When we strike ATH.... and Why iT happens at that time..... So This .25 also only to been payed 1 time .... and not 2 times te same explanation.... (1st =1st) Both answers to win must been inside before 20-09-2017 Goodluck to the ones that like This  ATH Nov 25. $5000 is a high bar to hit, it may take some time. Black Friday might put people in the mood and with US stock exchanges closed, might be time for another crypto rally, mirroring 2013. |
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I am ready to get in the game, but when will be a good time to make my first purchase?
Today. The answer is always today. Everyone who has ever bought and held bitcoin for any appreciable time has profited. Even those who bought in at 2013 all time highs have profited. At least those smart enough to keep their coins in their own wallets who didn't get goxxed, binfinexed, etc. Dollar cost average in thirds if you must, if you're nervous about short term fluctuations. Doesn't really matter long term. I know so many who never bought in because they thought $300 was too much. Then $600. Then $1000, no way it can go higher than $1200. They could have quintupled, tripled, doubled, grown their investments already if only they had bought in TODAY. This isn't a game though. It's the future. Don't spend more than you can afford to lose. HODL! Don't trade. Use cold storage. The usual advice... |
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As Bitcoin gains in both value and credibility as a viable long-term hedge/investment/currency, what is your current net worth tolerance?
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With support from some of the world’s largest bitcoin mining pools, it is evident SegWit is the only solution with a legitimate chance of activating on the network. Over 800 out of the latest 1,000 network blocks were mined through pools running the Bitcoin Core client. Moreover, 78.52% of the network’s hashrate belongs to pools running Bitcoin Core. Unlimited is not a bad scaling solution by any means, but SegWit is superior in all regards, according to the statistics. https://themerkle.com/bitcoin-segwit-activation-is-only-a-matter-of-time/ |
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Come on everybody, time for some celebratory Haiku...
Oh joyous teacup
May your handle be short-lived!
Willy is so proud
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If such a world will come into existence I would rather be dead and long gone  +1 haha ...although some rather nice 3rd world agrarian countries might not even notice the apocalypse. Just get yourself some fertile land and a few farmhands. And trade your Bitcoin for a suitcase full of gold coins, Pippi Longstocking style... |
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It appears bsave.io was affected by Bitfinex hack and had 36% shaved off the balance in exchange for BFX.
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I've been invested in the arbitrage fund a couple months now. Transactions out are confirmed quickly with a healthy mandatory transaction fee and earnings are faithfully paid every day.
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Has anyone any experience with their arbitrage interest accounts? They are advertising 10-12%.
Arbitrage s scam 100%. One can maybe get 2% per month, MAX, everything above that is pure BS. They are advertising 10-12% APY = ~2% month. Seems reasonable. |
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Has anyone any experience with their arbitrage interest accounts? They are advertising 10-12%.
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Bought my first Bitcoin the day before Halloween 2013 for $200. The price had already doubled from when I decided to buy to when I finally executed. I seriously thought I'd already missed the party.
I remember being on a camping trip in Big Bend for Thanksgiving, no reception, and happened to catch a snippet of Wifi at park HQ: Price had leaped to just under $1000.
Holy crap, what to do? I panic bought of course. Bought all the way up to $1155.
By Christmas, $1000 coins were a thing of the past. I bought all the way down into early 2014. Life happened through 2015, and it wasn't until we broke $400 I started paying attention again.
Been buying all the way up.
Proud to say I've HODLed every last coin. Averaged in at $600.
Not until we break free and clear of $1200 and I achieve my own first doubling will this rally start to sink in for me.
And not until I witness another 5x doubling in no time at all will the excitement from those days really kick in!!
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Granted, this isn't meant to be very representative, but there does appear to be a bimodal (trimodal?) distribution, perhaps reflecting early-adopters happy with holding more than 50 but with newbies hesitant to invest more than ~30 at current prices. It's impossible to know people's entry points and initial investments, but I'm guessing this likely reflects entry points correlated with the major bubbles and news cycle.
I'm curious if people have been willing to stake more, in absolute terms, as the price has increased over time. In other words, were median early-adopters willing to shell out the equivalent of a several hundred bucks back in single digit days vs newbies being willing to shell out several grand at today's prices?
More votes!
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