THERE IS NO MAGIC

“Your trading methodology has to make sense for you even if it’s the opposite of what makes sense for other people. Choices made in developing your approach to trading should suit you personally to minimize internal conflict. Only then will you have the confidence to remain true to its development and its execution during tough times. The long-term advantage of developing your own system from scratch (rather than trading someone else’s system) assures you of high compatibility with your beliefs, personality, edges, and objectives. That compatibility becomes one of your sustainable edges. As Curtis Faith of Turtle fame noted: “It’s not about the system, it’s about the trader’s ability to execute the system.” – (Source: VanTharp.com)


LB and I have just wrapped up the final in our series on full time trading. For the most part they have been enjoyable except for one twat who complained that it was unprofessional of LB to not present when she was suffering from severe laryngitis. Presenting for the first time in years is an interesting thing as the expectations of those you present to also change over time.

This particular series could be summarised as all the mistakes I have made in trading and the solutions I have found such as they are. One of the things I have learnt over the past few decades is that there is no magic. Trading is a grinding profession where your central tenet is not to go broke waiting for the next big move. I think in part some attendees were waiting for the magic.

That point in the seminar where you do a grand reveal of your magic strategy that never has a losing trade which means you can quit your job tomorrow and start trading full time with nothing other than a credit card because CFD providers will now in their wisdom allow you to fund your account with credit and earn frequent flyer points.

Regrettably the field of investing has been tainted by endless shonks who have polluted the thinking of people before they even set foot in the market. Before writing this piece, I Googled trading bitcoin for a living and got 35,900,000 returns. Certainly not all of them relate to trading bitcoin or any other crypto full time but if even 10% do then then that’s a staggering 3.5 million  sites promising people that they can give up their day job and start trading overnight.

The central theme of these sorts of sites and it is not limited to cryptos is that you can trade full time with very limited capital. And you can do this because you will never have a losing trade. Your equity curve will be a linear trajectory that soars from the bottom left hand corner of the chart to infinity without ever breaking stride. I can understand why this sort of thing has permeated the thinking of new traders.

Whilst this sounds seductive it ignores many of the key realities of trading the foremost of which is that trading does not produce linear returns. We encounter a feature of equity curves called drawdown. All trading systems generate drawdowns – in a very general sense if you are a trend following you expect to have a drawdown of between 15% to 25% once per year. As an example, consider the equity curve below.

This is the equity curve of Dunn Capital a money manager that uses trend following as its basic tool. You see decades of outperformance punctuated by drawdowns. There is an inviolate relationship between performance and drawdown, if you are swinging fr the fences you need to expect to be struck out a lot. Irrespective of the trading system drawdown is a fact of life for traders – it can only be avoided by not trading. If someone tells you that their equity curve never draws down, then they are a liar. It really is that simple.

The implication for those seeking to trade full time is that your first drawdown will coincide with your move to full time trading. This is a natural feature of systems, they cut their losses and then let their profits run. There is a timing dislocation between these two events that results in the account value immediately slipping. The problem is that this occurs at a time when you are most economically and emotionally vulnerable, it is also a problem because most new traders are undercapitalised. They simply don’t have enough money because they have not thought their transitions through and they may or may not have been infected by the thinking that you can give up your day job and earn 100k a year on a bank of 50k. It is at this point in a seminar that I can see how people begin to sag because it begins to dawn on them that they need much more than think to survive as a trader.

However, I think they are missing the bigger picture since the move to full time trading does not have to be an all-in proposition. The move can occur gradually over time as your capital grows and you acquire more skill. And along the way your life begins to change in small but incremental amounts. You may even reach a point where you stop believe in magic and start believing in your own ability to slowly and inexorably change your own life.

Author: Chris Tate
Article reproduced with kind permission of the author.
Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/there-is-no-magic/ 


I end this piece with the quotes below:

“Just coming back from vacation where we’ve been doing a lot of hiking in the mountains, here’s an analogy. You’re standing on a peak of a mountain looking at an even higher peak. But to get there you first have to go down that small valley…no way around it!

It's the same in trading, so as long as the size of the drawdown is within your expectations, you can and should relax when you’re in a drawdown. It's just a necessity you have to endure to get those profits. So understanding and accepting Drawdowns as part of this business will make your life as a trader much easier!” – Marco Meyer (Source: Tradingeducators.com)

“Having said that drawdowns are still making me uncomfortable. I don't like them at all and each time I'm in a big one I'm having the same doubts and troubles most of you probably have too. But knowing that actually nothing is wrong helps a lot to make it through these times. Without that knowledge and understanding, you not only have the doubts but you allow them to win over, follow them and then probably stop trading at the worst time possible.” – Marco Meyer (Source: Tradingeducators.com)


www.tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets

That so much capital left the market? Market cap was $220 billion 3 weeks ago. Today, we are barely holding on to $125 billion market cap. How much lower can btc go in price? 3k, 2k, 1k?

I don't feel like it's dead, but I feel like it is a lot more vulnerable than it was prior to a month ago, and I am not certain about a recovery any time soon.

I really wonder when it has to do with the "Bear Market"  I even read in some articles that the bears have taken over the market, now my question is; Who are the bears? Is it the bounty hunters? Or Day-traders?

I would love to know this.

What to do now when things get worse every day, only hold will help us? Who is trying to survive in such a market? Your advice, friends!

I saw this article today: https://news.bitcoin.com/singapore-regulatory-framework-cryptocurrency-payment-services/ about paying with cryptocurrencies in Singapore.
The central bank has finalized the new regulatory framework for payment services and they have included cryptocurrencies.
I think this is the future of banking and something that all countries should start doing.
The plus of making this change in the financial system is that there will be less money laundering and terrorism financing risks in the crypto world which is good for normal people that have hope and invest in online coins but bad for the ones that use the online coins for the reasons mentioned before.

What do you think? Is it a good idea to introduce cryptocurrencies in the financial systems of the world's countries?

STRATEGIES TO INVEST IN A BEARISH MARKET

Cryptocurrency investment is one that is known with the ability to bring massive profits and returns. If properly analysis and risks are considered, an investment will always smile on every of his investments this has been difficult for investors as the cryptocurrency market has seen more than 70% price drop since december 2017 , thus the trend this year has been bearish. Its interesting to know that profits can be made in any market trends depending on your strategies and expertise.

Now what is a Bearish market ? This is simply when the people sell their holdings such that buyers are diminished at every time. When this is repeated , the tend is called bearish. The sellers are called Bears. 

Below are the Strategies to apply in a bearish Market.

1.Set Up Stop loss and Watch them closely : Stop-Loses and Targets are two of the most basic instruments that each and every cryptocurrency investor and trader needs to acquaint themselves with. Setting an order with a stop loss   is fundamentally like an electrical switch which guarantees that once the price set achieves a settled low point, a deal naturally happens. This guarantees that traders and investor don't make loss or bigger loss on their holdings. Its important to follow your trades after Setting a stop loss in case you will need to make advanced decision. 

2.Follow News :
It is basic for every cryptocurrency trader and investor to always follow the news especially for the sake of the cryptocurrencies they have invested in. Its good to follow steadily and closely through all social medias, Google News Alerts , RSS channels, and many more. This will help you to be updated with prices , latest development about the project and cryptocurrency community at large.

3.Understand the market trends and graph :
Traders and investors need to keenly observe and study the market trend and graph. In the past eight months, there has been slow and constant downfall with some little little uptrend in between the falls. Those that quickly observed this early would have known how to handle trade, investment and what more to expect as things unfold. So its necessary to compare past and present record to determine what might happen next and steps to take. This has proven to show high accuracy rate.

I hope this information helps everyone to be a better trader, investor and make more profits.

Thanks

I have been receiving BTC payments for writing since 2016 by my two main clients. Only odd amounts of work, but still always been paid in BTC. They have both stopped paying me in Bitcoin as they said the volatility is driving them up the wall using it, and have wanted to go back to PayPal :/

The volatility sucks. I am less bothered about the price but more want it to stop jumping over the place. This is one major issue with adoption.

We are in the 3K levels, We will rebounce or Bitcoin will die as faketoshi said?

I will never sell under 20k$, even if Bitcoin go to 100$ ...

The peoples who bought Bitcoin at 19k$, why you are selling them now ? You bought at 19k$ sell higher than that !

If you don't beleive at this technology do not buy anymore.

Hello, I saw a lot of holders today a new generations of holders. Like, Bought 6k$ to 7k$ amount or price of bitcoin. And they panic because they afraid to lose them more money on the crpyto so of course they will sell it immediately at the lower so that's why many of them always lose their money. What do you think?

'Do not panic' - when it comes to anything bear-related.
'It creates opportunities' - but first-time investors may become concerned when prices begin falling drastically

Any tips to offer people new to cryptocurrency?

Yes I truly believe in cryptocurrency. We all know that the basic aim of everyone for participating in any investment market is to earn profits and there is nothing wrong in that. But a person should have some realistic goals. You can invest in something blindly and then expect your money to be doubled in a week. You should research and study properly and take every decision wisely.

Hey guys!

Just interested if you still earn any money? The situation is so horrible that it's interesting to me if someone still feels good.
Maybe you mine or you continue to invest in something.

On the whole, how to survive now? Hold, trade, sell, invest, mine?

I am creating a money supply which distributes duration to addresses but need a way to verify each person has only one account

would you give your fingerprint or eye scan for a fair money supply?

see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time-based_currency

In the article "Dirty secret revealed in new bitcoin crash", the writer Jason Murphy says that "Bitcoin is supposed to be an expression of collective free will in a system controlled only by the incorruptible mathematics of cryptography. The currency collapse pattern suggests Bitcoin may not be so free after all" he said this because the prices maybe are being manipulated by bots or someone or some group. He explains that in moments when the markets are having stability and suddenly the prices fall that means manipulation.

What do you guys think? I think that maybe there is a little manipulation

full article: https://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/world-markets/dirty-secret-revealed-in-new-bitcoin-crash/news-story/18d203a429ee1cc145f79d3ada7e2086

Please read all steps carefully and

Let me know if I made any mistakes

and very sorry. Cause I can't add any picture for good attraction  

1. Make an effort not to Select The Wrong Exchange:

 Thus as the amount of altcoins hitting the market is growing exponentially, the amount of cryptocurrency trades that you can trade these money related structures on is furthermore increasing.The issue is that few out of each odd new trade is made proportional; new and untested trades could wind up being a terrible dream in the event they don't regard withdrawals or end up hard to reach at the wrong time.Start your crypto trading employment with long-standing, all around respected trades that assistance a wide number of formally settled electronic fiscal guidelines. While it may seem like you're leaving behind an open entryway by doing this, recall the ability to recoup cryptocurrencies from cloud, untrusted associations can be close by limitless.

2. Be focus on Bitcoin and always keep your eyes on it's movement:

 Most altcoins are pegged more eagerly to Bitcoin than Asian money related structures were to the USD in the midst of the Asian Budgetary Emergency. If Bitcoin esteem pump unquestionably, altcoins cost can go down as people endeavor to exit altcoins to ride the BTC benefits; on the other hand, if Bitcoin costs dump fundamentally, altcoin expenses can go down, also, as people exit altcoins to trade by and by into fiat. The best events for altcoin growth show up when Bitcoin exhibits normal growth or abatement, or remains stale in expense.

3. Never put all your investments tied up on one place:

 Expand. While the likelihood to acquire is extended with the proportion of money you put into a coin, the likelihood to lose more is in like manner intensified. Another way to deal with think of it as is to look at the cryptocurrency market all things considered; if you believe this is just the beginning, by then more than likely the entire market best of cryptocurrencies will increase. What are the chances that this market top addition will be completely controlled by one coin as opposed to being driven by various coins? The best way to deal with safely get the general growth of cryptocurrency is to upgrade and get the prizes of growth from different coins. Furthermore, fun fact — Between January 2016 and January 2018, Corgicoin has extended by sixty thousand x, and Verge has extended by thirteen thousand x. In the midst of a comparative period, Bitcoin has extended by thirty four x. While you would have turned out to be significant increments from Bitcoin, wandering into various coins could have landed you possibly greater ones.

4. Continuously gain knowledge from your oversights:-

Never perceive an aggregate loss. Constantly review the circumstance and endeavor to comprehend why it occurred. Recognize that encounter as favorable position for your best methodology, which will be better,because you are know more now than you knew as of now. We as a whole in all begin off as novices, and we have all lost cash all through trading data. I've lost a ton by offering at losses incited by dread. Nobody is immaculate, nobody wins each and every trade. Try not to enable the losses to debilitate you, in light of the way that truly they're upgrading you trader on the off chance that you gain from them.

5. Do whatever it takes not to Spend Too Much Time Trading:

This sounds uncommon, in any case it's absolutely conceivable to wind up making less preferred standpoint by relentlessly trading. New crypto traders can routinely wind up being so energetic about the modernized cash markets that they spend each waking minute watching regard changes and endeavoring to locate the ideal trade, at any rate doing in this manner can be absolutely devastating in a surge.You need to temper that fervor with quickness. The crypto markets are dynamic to the indicate that paying little personality whether you miss what seems similarly as one surprising chance to benefit, they'll be five or ten more down the line basically sitting tight for you. Trading while you're drained can incite doltish slips since you're expecting truly rather than dependably.

6. Try not to contribute indiscriminately:-

There are individuals in this world who may offer an evidently blocked individual two or three glasses in the event that they could profit. Those proportionate individuals play in the cryptocurrency markets and utilize every chance to abuse less-readied agents. They'll uncover to you what to purchase or accreditation certain coins will moon, just to fabricate the costs so they can exit. In setting of the exceedingly speculative nature of the cryptocurrency markets today, an exciting scientist will always do his or her own unprecedented examination with a legitimate concentration to perceive full duty regarding the potential undertaking result. Data beginning from even the best cash related expert is, total best circumstance, striking data, at any rate never an affirmation, so you can at present get seared.

7. Do whatever it takes not to be greedy:

Nobody whenever lost cash taking preference. As a coin grows, the unquenchability inside us grows near to it. On the off chance that a coin increment by 25%, why not exploit? In spite of whether objectives are set to half 60%, you ought to at any rate haul out a portion of the favorable position in movement up on the off chance that a coin doesn't achieve the objective. In the event that you hold up too long or endeavor to get out at a higher point, you threat losing advantage you suitably earned or regardless of changing that advantage into an accident. Start taking favorable circumstances and examining for reentry in the event that you need to keep getting potential points of interest.

8. Keep in mind to set stop losses in short term trading:

Continuously set stop losses in your short-term trade. This is imperative for a few reasons . The most evident is relieving your losses. In any case, more critically, you constrain yourself to settle on a point of worthy loss, and in light of the fact that you currently have a reference point, you can gauge your adequacy to keep or change for future trades. Once in a while, amid a market plunge, altcoins can fall, and stop losses can prompt benefit via consequently offering for fiat that you can use to return at lower costs.

9. attempt to keep away from panicness:

The altcoin scene is unbelievably unsafe. This can make a critical extent of feebleness in the focal point of an understudy trader, and that can without much of a stretch convey suppositions of panic and dread in your gut – which is the most exceedingly horrendous eager state to be in while trading.Similarly as trading while you're drained from contributing excessively essentialness watching the markets can be stunning, settling on trading choices since you're feeling panicky about your undertaking can be a frightful decision. While there's nothing out of request with confiding in your gut, never settle on a choice subject to panic and dread.

Don't forget to share your personal tips...

In this market, there are many people who are fear of missing out (FOMO). You always be patient. If you believe you have missed an opportunity, do not try to join if you are unsure. You can lose more than earn. Crypto is a 24/7/365 market. You can not catch every trade. If you miss one, do not worry - there's ALWAYS another trade.

There are few possible options from what I think.

1. Correction.
As we see on the stock market the prices of the stocks are in a correction phase, just the same as crypto's.

2. Where in the next cycle.


3. Manipulation.
There are bigger entities than we know that manipulate the crypto, but does that also mean they manipulate the stocks?

Take these assumption with a grain of salt. My plan is to buy more crypto's while they are on sale because I believe in option 2, and we are ATM at the anger stage. It would take at least a few months to see a bull-run if not years. Good luck with shorting the market my friends. 

People are scared and do see what is really happenning, this Dump is a large holder trying to push a bull run next monday when a player with trillons get onbord(swiss ETF) they will make a massive buy and price will bonce very high in the top starting a new bull run that will run all 2019, there is no other logic way to explain this market behaivor, I bet monday we will be in a bull run otherwise I am out of crypto b3cause I dont understand reality anymore.

There are two benefits to creating high demand for bitcoins. The first and obvious benefit is that you'll end up with a wealth of bitcoins. The second and more subtle benefit is that as demand outstrips supply, people will exchange local currency for bitcoins which will allow you to more easily exchange your bitcoins for local currency.