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3801  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Sony Pictures Pulls “The Interview” From Theaters on: December 24, 2014, 07:12:08 PM
So they will be showing the movie in roughly 200 theaters across the USA, down from the original 3000 that they planned. Nothing planned in Canada so far. This has been one big disaster after another for Sony. Especially since it will probably hit online for free any day or hour now.

They're doing a digital on-demand release as well through the major platforms. I agree, they're not going to be making the money they thought they would on this, but you could hardly ask for better publicity.
3802  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Sony Pictures Pulls “The Interview” From Theaters on: December 24, 2014, 06:53:47 PM
I didn't mean that they faked the hack, only that not releasing the movie might be a publicity stunt. Trying to make the best of the situation. But as you and others said, even doing that cost them and cinema chains a lot of reputation, so that doesn't seem the case. But I doubt North Korea was behind this. Too much of a convenient scapegoat.

The retaliation seems to be at North Korea. Internet was down for quite some time in Korea.

People are conveniently forgetting that piratebay fooled people into thinking their servers were in North Korea at one point, I.P addresses are extremely unreliable evidence because they can changed at a whim.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2030073/the-pirate-bay-admits-to-north-korean-hosting-hoax.html

Hell, just by buying a VPN I can make it look like I'm in Russia or Afghanistan and I'm not even a hacker! if hackers can make it look like they're from North Korea. What's to say it really is North Korea, it's wishful thinking from cold war fanatics who don't want things to end.

Oh and we all know how reliable intelligence agencies are when it comes to this kind of bullshit, considering they so certainly said it was all Saddam Hussein's fault 9/11 happened and they were 100% sure he had nuclear weaponry.

I agree with you. It's hard to take anything the government says seriously anymore. Credibility is a precious commodity, and once squandered, hard to regain.

On the other hand, the shoe fits on this one. I believe it was NK, but not because the US gov says so.
3803  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Elizabeth Warren and Nancy Pelosi are right on: December 24, 2014, 06:43:59 PM
Net neutrality makes these abuses illegal.

In essence, you mean you believe Obama will protect you from rising costs, when in fact he has been doing exactly the opposite.  More evidence.

No, in essence, I mean exactly what I said. Net neutrality will prohibit ISP-sponsored censorship by prohibiting extortion against those who can afford to pay.

And when net neutrality regulation ends up with ISPs merged into mega-telcoms and the mega-telcoms sleeping in bed with the government, then you will ask for more regulation to regulate to the regulators or some other endless set of excuses, always failing to recognize that the generative essence of the problem is THE IRON LAW of Political Economics[1].

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and never realizing you will get the same result every time.

Thus you are insane.

[1] In collectivized action the self interest incentives are misaligned with the global optimization.


All of your fear mongering is countered by the fact that net neutrality is the system we've had all along. But I bet you're right, keeping the system that's been in place since the beginning of the internet is the boogeyman.  Roll Eyes
3804  Other / Politics & Society / Re: How can the U.S. fix Detroit? on: December 23, 2014, 09:52:45 PM
We all know Detroit is the butt of all city jokes in the U.S. The place is in utter disrepair, the city is huge compared to the taxes it receives--so naturally bad things started to happen. Business and economic growth don't exactly thrive in a place declared by the FBI as the murder capital of the U.S. So in your opinion, what can fix Detroit? Other than Robocop of course.

Stop voting for the democrats.



Cuz everyone knows we're a few republicans away from Utopia?  Roll Eyes

I don't know about that. I know the democrats and the unions had a free ride for their ultimate Utopia for the past 50 years. It was called Detroit. We can all see the result. It is basic History 101.



I think trying to pin the failure of Detroit singularly on the Democrats is a case of over-simplification. There were far more factors that lead to the downfall of Detroit than the party in power, or the role of unions. (Two groups I am not fans of, btw... I'm not defending them.)
No democrats are pretty much the only thing to blame for detroits woes. Almost every other democrat run city/state is in horrible condition, however ones with a somewhat moderate balance of power (meaning that Republicans have enough representation in the legislature to avoid the dems cramming everything they want past them, sometimes have a GOP Governor/Mayer) are not as bad off. IL is another example of a heavily democratic state that is doing horribly (although not as bad as detroit as Unions have not been able to infiltrate IL as much)  

Clearly, correlation = causation. Disregard all the other factors, we've cracked the code!  With almost a handful of data points, I don't know how someone hasn't awarded you a Nobel prize for economics yet. Roll Eyes
3805  Other / Politics & Society / Re: CNN national poll: Rand Paul 13%, Bush 13%, Ryan 12%, Huckabee 10%, Christie 9% on: December 23, 2014, 09:35:45 PM
Rand Paul knocks out Marco Rubio like Ali over Foreman

Quote
Sen. Rand Paul, Kentucky Republican, has delivered a knock out punch against Sen. Marco Rubio to normalization of relations with Cuba to benefit the United States. The punch was as decisive as Muhammad Ali’s knock out of George Foreman in the Rumble in the Jungle 40 years ago. Mr. Rubio’s presidential ambitions are over.

The Florida senator’s implacable hatred of Fidel Castro and Cuba’s Communist regime has driven him to anti-democratic tirades and to a policy of Cuban ostracism that sneers at Presidents George Washington and Thomas Jefferson.  His child-like immaturity and conflicting loyalties between Cuba and the United States disqualify him for the White House.

Mr. Rubio is the son of Cuban immigrants who fled under the dictatorship of Fulgencia Batista.  He has apparently forgotten that as a U.S. citizen and senator, his sole allegiance is to the U.S. Constitution and to the general welfare of the people of the United States. If there is a conflict between Mr. Rubio’s sympathies for the Cuban people and the best interests of the United States, he is required to abandon the former in favor of the latter.

The United States forged an alliance with Joseph Stalin during World War II to advance the interests of the United States, not to advance the cause of human rights or democracy in the Soviet Union.



More...http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/dec/22/rand-paul-knocks-out-marco-rubio-like-ali-over-for/

The rest of that article is really enlightening and not just a puff piece on Rand. Great historical context is presented.

Article doesn't provide much Rand content at all. Much more of a diatribe against Rubio (not that he doesn't deserve it).
3806  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Elizabeth Warren and Nancy Pelosi are right on: December 23, 2014, 08:35:01 PM
Net neutrality makes these abuses illegal.

In essence, you mean you believe Obama will protect you from rising costs, when in fact he has been doing exactly the opposite.  More evidence.

No, in essence, I mean exactly what I said. Net neutrality will prohibit ISP-sponsored censorship by prohibiting extortion against those who can afford to pay.
3807  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Illinois Just Made it a Felony for Its Citizens to Record the Police on: December 23, 2014, 04:02:20 PM
Is it a good thing this didn't happen in Illinois?

http://thefreethoughtproject.com/cops-beat-man-7-month-pregnant-wife-deleted-video-survived-cloud/

icloud apparently saved the video before the officer deleted it from the device so the "shooter" managed to retrieve it.

Yep, inadmissible in court doesn't mean it isn't admissible in the court of public opinion. Live casting services are your best protection against abusive thieving cops trying to destroy your property to hide their crimes.

I was asking the question because if this was in Illinois, he could be charged with a felony?  The police could then go to his home and take him into custody.  What happens after that, who could say?

The police can (and will) charge you with anything. I would like to think that the DA has better sense than to try to pursue felony wire tapping charges against a guy who recorded a cop beating his pregnant wife to death. The optimist in me wants to believe that would bring a nightmare of public outrage.
3808  Economy / Economics / Re: The reason that crude oil price crashed on: December 23, 2014, 03:57:43 PM
Mate, I'm not saying they're "set" at all. It's a function of supply and demand. I'm referencing the financial trade papers on the topic, like WSJ or Bloomberg who report that there's an oversupply of oil brought on by the shale production in the US. (US oil production has doubled since 2008 due to fracking.) Traditionally, when there is an oversupply, OPEC cuts back to keep the price elevated, and although most of the OPEC members want to cut back, Saudi Arabia (the largest oil producer in the world) has announced they will not be cutting production due to price declines. This has caused the price of oil to drop to the lowest point in 5 years because it means the oversupply is not going to be addressed. Saudi Arabia is doing this intentionally because shale oil is expensive to produce, and the state-run Saudi oil companies can stomach losses longer than American firms, who have to answer to shareholders who have no will to absorb losses for a sustained period of time. As an added bonus, low oil prices hurt Iran, a regional rival politically and militarily.

Here's an article published a few days ago about the oil blinking contest between the US and Saudi Arabia:
(article can be found in jaysabi post above)

The Article only shows that others have also speculated on the intent of others.

We agree on the consequences of the action (non-action) which this author quotes someone saying is "a declaration of war".  Accusing the head of Saudi Arabia of declaring war by doing exactly nothing seems a bit extreme to me, but maybe I am alone in that?

I think you missed my point entirely, since all you did was aggravate it with an escalation of the violation rather than suggest that my point was not correct.

To be more clear:
You do not know the mind of another person without them telling you.  Therefore claiming intention, rather than consequence, is unduly invidious.
If you brought forth a quote of someone in charge of the decision saying why they were doing it, that would be one thing.  Instead you brought forward a (worse) example of someone else doing this transgression of invidiously assuming the intention without evidence of that intention.

Nor do you know the mind of another person even with them telling you either. Governments lie about their intentions and their actions all the time. It's true no one from Saudi Arabia has said this is what they're doing, and I'd be pretty surprised if they did since they're wholly dependent on the US militarily. The Kingdom is also dependent on high oil prices, since it is basically the country's only source of income. In seeing the consequences of what they're doing, I'm making an educated guess as to the intention. But I'll even walk it back and say it's likely not the primary driver of their actions, but the fact that prolonged low oil prices hurt shale producers and increases their future market share certainly does not go unnoticed by them, and they view it as a long term benefit. To say that it was the primary objective of their actions was overshooting on my part.
3809  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Elizabeth Warren and Nancy Pelosi are right on: December 22, 2014, 02:12:13 PM
RodeoX and jaysabi, I can not fathom how you can write so astutely in this thread, and yet have favored Obama's pleas to regulate net neutrality. How can you write the above and not understand the regulators are always captured by the regulated as matter of mathematical certainty as well as historical evidence?

The only way we will protect net neutrality is obscure the content with anonymity and so consumers can vote with their feet without fear of retribution from the State.

Only the free market works in the end, and anonymity is absolutely crucial to making it work. We don't have a free market, so you can't claim it doesn't work. We don't have it, because the technology hasn't been implemented to free up the market.

Always technological solutions (paradigm shifts) are the only real solutions. Politics is always a morass and entire waste of time.

We already have the system being proposed. The proposal is to keep it. If all the doom and gloom you're predicting hasn't happened yet, that's a pretty strong indication your fears are overblown. The internet will be less free and more expensive under a pay-lane scenario. We've already seen how big ISPs will throttle companies they are in negotiations with (Netflix/Comcast, Netflix/Verizon) in order to extort more money out of them. There's no doubt in my mind now that they've seen that it works, we'll see far more of it in a pay-lane system. Net neutrality makes these abuses illegal.
3810  Other / Politics & Society / Re: CNN national poll: Rand Paul 13%, Bush 13%, Ryan 12%, Huckabee 10%, Christie 9% on: December 17, 2014, 02:16:03 AM
The Courtship: How Rand Paul Became a 'Chamber Republican'
Quote
Rand Paul had screwed up, and he knew it.

It was June and the Kentucky senator was in Texas speaking to a group of tea-party activists when he got loose with his words. "Chamber of Commerce is fine, I was a member of the Chamber of Commerce," Paul told the state's Republican Liberty Caucus. "But a Chamber of Commerce Republican is not going to win a national election."

It was a bold statement for a Republican plotting his own path to presidency. Too bold, he and his advisers realized almost immediately. While Paul has nurtured an iconoclastic libertarian image—stomping across Washington in cowboy boots and jeans, casting himself as a rare Republican willing to go to Berkeley, say, or reach out to black voters—he has also methodically courted the power class here in Washington.

Slapping at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce was not part of that game plan. Instead, it represented a political low in his relationship with the nation's most powerful business lobby. But by the fall, Paul wasn't swiping at the business lobby anymore; he was starring in their television ads in four Senate races, including spots to air in crucial early presidential battlegrounds of Iowa and New Hampshire. How Paul recovered from that verbal stumble and resuscitated his relationship with the chamber says a lot about the balancing—some say contortionist—act he is attempting as he readies a White House run.

More...http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/the-courtship-how-rand-paul-became-a-chamber-republican-20141214

To me, this is a sad reminder that Rand Paul's image as a libertarian is just an image. He's the same as every other politician in DC. One who makes the connections with and concessions to special interests in order to be electable, and often to the detriment to the people he's supposed to serve: the public.

Rand was raised discussing issues and philosophy with his father, plus campaigning for national offices.

That's not "the same as every other politician in DC."  He grew up learning exactly what must be done in order to take the baton from his dad and carry it towards finish line.

More of the same isn't going to cut it.  He's a son of RP, not a clone.  If you can't accept that, you are Ready For Hillary.   Wink

Hillary? Ugh, gag me with a spoon. If you want libertarian values, you have to vote for a libertarian. Anyone the Republicans endorse is automatically disqualified for having the same old ties that will require him to make the same old concessions and be indebted to the same old special interests. Obama was an electable change from the same-old when he was a candidate too (the first time), and look how different he turned out to be. Rand is a better option that someone like Ted Cruz or Jeb Bush, but he's still not the best option if you're a libertarian. Gary Johnson will get my vote again.
3811  Other / Politics & Society / Re: FEC Petition to Allow More Parties in Presidential Debates on: December 16, 2014, 10:03:11 PM
Money party? There's already two of those. They kinda ruin everything to keep themselves in power.
3812  Economy / Economics / Re: The reason that crude oil price crashed on: December 16, 2014, 09:56:34 PM
The reason oil prices have come down is because OPEC has cut prices arbitrarily. They were artificially high to begin with. On average it costs an OPEC nation ~$30 to produce a barrel of crude. They're still making a shitload of profit.

It's not arbitrary at all, and it's not really OPEC, as many OPEC members would rather see higher prices for their own internal political reasons. The primary driver is Saudi Arabia, who is trying to crush the shale oil producers in the US (particularly, and to some extent Canada) where oil cannot be produced at profit for less than $80 a barrel. A sustained price below that point is intended to chase US firms out of the market, as they can't produce profits at this level, which in the long-run would be good for Saudi Arabia.

Prices aren't "set" in that way.  It is primarily a global auction market price, with some lesser side-deals.
What the OPEC countries do is set and publish production targets for themselves.  Sometimes they also violate these targets and release more oil than they say that they will behind the backs of the cartel partners.

To say what is "intended" by them is essentially a bizarre claim of mind-reading.  There may well be other intentions entirely, (such as maintaining the largess of their regime and thus forestalling a democratic revolt) and the effects on USA and Russia may be merely side effects and unintended consequences, or even simply not as big of a factor as other financial concerns of selling enough oil as they feel that they need to sell.

Not all effects of actions are controlled.  Even children know this the first time they accidentally break something.

Mate, I'm not saying they're "set" at all. It's a function of supply and demand. I'm referencing the financial trade papers on the topic, like WSJ or Bloomberg who report that there's an oversupply of oil brought on by the shale production in the US. (US oil production has doubled since 2008 due to fracking.) Traditionally, when there is an oversupply, OPEC cuts back to keep the price elevated, and although most of the OPEC members want to cut back, Saudi Arabia (the largest oil producer in the world) has announced they will not be cutting production due to price declines. This has caused the price of oil to drop to the lowest point in 5 years because it means the oversupply is not going to be addressed. Saudi Arabia is doing this intentionally because shale oil is expensive to produce, and the state-run Saudi oil companies can stomach losses longer than American firms, who have to answer to shareholders who have no will to absorb losses for a sustained period of time. As an added bonus, low oil prices hurt Iran, a regional rival politically and militarily.

Here's an article published a few days ago about the oil blinking contest between the US and Saudi Arabia:

In the high-stakes contest between the United States, the biggest shale oil producer, and Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil exporter, America has blinked first.

The OPEC refusal to cut production at its November meeting was widely seen as the declaration of a price war against booming U.S. shale oil producers, which had sent their country’s oil production soaring. Saudis had watched as their market share dropped precipitously in the world’s biggest oil-consuming nation, and they wanted to send a clear message across the global energy market that they weren’t about to back off.

Oil prices have been in freefall ever since. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, sank another 3 per cent Friday to $61.85 (U.S.) a barrel, while West Texas intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, dropped 3.6 per cent to $57.81, extending its slide from well over $100 a barrel in the summer.

If the global oil standoff pits the industry stalwart Saudi Arabia against the surging U.S. rival, other global players are coping with the pricing fallout, including Canada. Oil companies around the world are being forced to revisit their spending and production plans for 2015, and in the offices towers of downtown Calgary, those changes are already well under way.

Cenovus Energy Inc. this week slashed its capital budget by 15 per cent and signalled more to come. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. has said a quarter of its $8.6-billion (Canadian) budget is “flexible” and could be deferred if prices don’t recover. A growing number of smaller producers have cut budgets and dividends in a bid to conserve cash and ride out the storm.

More cutbacks are likely to follow in the weeks ahead, and expectations that Alberta could double oil sands production over the next decade are suddenly in doubt. After all, new oil sands projects on the drawing board have costs per barrel well above current market prices.

For Canada, future projects sidelined or scaled back will act as a drag on the national economy, which has for years benefited from heavy spending in the energy sector while other sectors such as manufacturing struggled. The case for the many new pipelines currently in various stages of planning will be weakened.

Analysts warn it could take many months – even a full year – before global oil supplies fall enough and demand catches up, so that prices recover somewhat.

The oil slump is expected to affect most quickly on production levels in the United States, where the shale boom has added four million barrels a day of supply in the past few years and prompted predictions that the country would become the world’s largest crude producer by 2016.

Already, the number of new shale drilling licences has dropped by 40 per cent, plans are being scaled back, and rigs are being pulled out of the field. With relatively short lead times from planning to production, analysts are cutting their expectations of supply growth for next year. As Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi predicted two weeks ago, the market is beginning to “stabilize itself.”

But it will take a while for the Saudi strategy to play out. American producers are still expected to continue to boost production through the first half of next year, although at a slower rate than 2014. Meanwhile, global demand growth is slowing. That will keep pressure on prices at least through the first half of 2015, unless OPEC does cut production or there is a sharp supply disruption caused by political upheaval.

Companies adjust

On Friday, the International Energy Agency shaved its forecast for 2015 demand by 230,000 barrels a day – the fourth time in five months that it has reduced its forecast – citing economic weakness in Russia and China. The Paris-based agency also raised its expectation for non-OPEC oil production in 2015, despite lower prices.

Oil companies are seeing their revenues nosedive, share prices sink, and capital market players grow wary about lending. State-owned companies are facing pressure to maintain the flow of revenue to government coffers even as their cash flow dries up. Capital discipline had been the mantra among major oil companies heading into 2014; retrenchment and focus on high-grade prospects will be the watch words as the year ends.

Even as U.S. producers respond, companies operating in high-cost, capital-intensive areas like Canada’s oil sands or Brazil’s offshore will defer and even cancel planned projects, although the impact on actual production will take longer to materialize.

It’s too early to call “mission accomplished” for the Saudis. The OPEC leader is playing a long game in order to preserve its oil market share by making life difficult for the high-cost oil producers, and its strategy is showing early signs of success.

The quick reaction time by some of the high-cost producers, notably the American shale oil drillers, is why one of the world’s foremost oilmen, Sadad Al-Husseini, the former executive vice-president of Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest oil and gas company, is becoming bullish on oil even as Brent prices sink to the low $60s.

“If you go down low enough, as we are now, you’ll get to the point where there is little investment, which is what we’re going through,” he said in an interview in Al Khobar, the Saudi city filled with Aramco employees in the country’s oil-rich Eastern Province. “You will force the excess out of the market and demand will take you back up. That is what is about to happen.”

‘Strength of the profit motive’

Mr. Al-Husseini, 67, worked at Aramco until his retirement in 2004 and was a member of its board and its management committee. During his Aramco career, he was instrumental in making 20 discoveries, including vast gas fields and the central Arabian and Red Sea oil fields. He is now president of Husseini Energy, an oil consultancy based in Bahrain that advises financial institutions and the oil services industry.

He admits he underestimated the “strength of the profit motive” that turned the United States into a shale oil powerhouse. Since 2010, U.S. shale oil production is up by three million barrels a day. But he feels confident that waning investment is already hitting production growth and that prices won’t fall much farther as the supply-demand balance tightens up.

“When prices come down 40 per cent, you’re not going to keep spending like there is no change,” he said. “My guess is that by the end of second quarter of 2015, there will be a returning confidence in oil. Does that mean it will go to $115? No, that was never a sustainable number. Could it go as high as $80, maybe $90? Sure.”

Unlike some of their more vulnerable OPEC partners like Venezuela and Nigeria, the Saudis can afford to be patient and wait for the market to recalibrate. But it too faces fiscal pressure as it spends heavily to diversify its economy and provide social benefits to a young population. The International Monetary Fund estimated early this year that Saudi Arabia needed an oil price of $89 (U.S.) a barrel to keep its budget out of the red, up from $80 in 2012.

U.S. shale oil is generally far more expensive to produce than Saudi oil, which has the lowest pumping costs in the world. Shale oil wells deplete rapidly, meaning a lot of them have to be drilled constantly to keep production intact.

The upshot? Shale oil output is much more sensitive to falling prices than Saudi oil, and the market is beginning to work its magic. Although the U.S. rig count remains well above the level of a year ago, it saw its biggest drop in two years this week and has declined in six of the past nine weeks. And it’s expected to drop sharply next year.

Estimates of break-even costs for new production in the three key shale basins – the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian – range from $60 to $70 a barrel. But there is wide discrepancy in the actual break-even costs for each well, and companies will focus spending on their best prospects.

“Balance sheets are going to force discipline,” said David Pursell, an analyst at Tudor Pickering & Holt Co. in Houston. “When we look at basin economics, there’s just a handful of core areas that make economic sense to continue to drill at even $70 crude. ... Companies will drop rig count very quick to stay within cash flow so they don’t see their balance sheets unravel. And they can unravel very quickly if they maintain the current activity level into 2015 at a much lower oil price.”

Most vulnerable are the smaller exploration and production (E&P) companies that have taken on debt as their spending outpaced their cash flow, and Mr. Pursell said the high-yield debt market on which they rely is already showing signs of nervousness. Companies like Range Resources Corp. and SandRidge Energy fall into that category.

The Tudor analyst sees the rig count dropping by nearly a third from the recent 1,600, but said it will still take several quarters before production growth slows. He predicts U.S. production will rise by 592,000 barrels a day next year and 226,000 in 2016, after growing by nearly one million barrels a day this year.

In a release Friday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration also indicated it will take time for the impact of lower prices to be felt in the supply picture. The EIA forecast that U.S. production will average 9.3 million barrels a day in 2015 – up from 8.6 million in 2014 and closing in on Saudi’s estimated 9.60 million daily output.

Mr. AL-Husseini is no fan of the theories that the decision by OPEC (read: Saudi Arabia) not to trim the cartel’s 30-million– barrel-a-day production quota at its November meeting in Vienna was a political act of war aimed at punishing Russia and Iran for their support of the al-Assad regime in Syria or aimed solely at choking off U.S. shale production.

He said it was a market decision designed to trim high-cost production wherever it lies, including Brazil’s offshore fields and Canada’s oil sands, to end the oil glut. An OPEC production cut would have only propped up prices, he noted, “subsidizing the high-cost oil at the expense of low-cost oil,” the latter being Saudi Arabia and Gulf allies such as Qatar.

Among the high-cost producers, there is no doubt that U.S. shale oil would be quickest to trim investment and thus output. Mr. Al-Husseini said that, even if oil prices were to remain fairly strong, the shale industry’s ability to deliver ever-higher production would not be assured. That’s because shale wells are short-lived creatures. His research says that shale oil (and natural gas) wells decline at a rate of 50 to 70 per cent a year, “requiring intense capacity replacement drilling.”

That means shale fields require more and more drilling to maintain production and that gets expensive. At the huge Eagle Ford shale field in southern Texas, some 4,500 new wells will have been drilled in 2014, of which 3,800 are required just to maintain production.

One major test for producers will be the degree to which they can squeeze costs out of the supply chain, thereby lowering their break-even price.

U.S. shale producers say they are doing just that. Houston-based EOG Resources Inc. has slashed the average well cost in North Dakota’s Bakken play to $8.7-million from $10.5-million two years ago. In the Eagle Ford, it reduced the number of days to drill a well to 12.5 from 22.7 in 2012.

Pioneer Natural Resources Co. said last week that it was still planning to pursue production growth of between 16 and 21 per cent next year, with its key assets in the West Texas Permian basin. Pioneer chief executive officer Scott Sheffield said the Saudis had “declared war on the U.S. oil and gas industry,” and the company is responding by driving down costs and re-evaluating its drilling program. He acknowledged that a sustained period of prices below $60 a barrel could force further cuts.

The oil sands challenge

But high-cost producers across the globe are facing similar challenges.

London-based oil economist Amrita Sen said Canada’s oil sands remains the world’s highest-cost production in terms of new projects, with the U.S. shale and the offshore in Mexico and Brazil not far behind.

Existing oil sands operations aren’t likely to be cut off any time soon. Analysts say currently producing projects have average per-barrel costs in the mid-$50s to mid-$60s, depending on the type of operation. “The advantage that oil sand producers have over, for example tight oil producers, is that they typically invest for the longer term as they rely on a steady stream of production over an extended period of time, making them less susceptible to temporary price fluctuations,” Ms. Sen said in a report this week.

Cenovus, for example, is slowing spending on longer-term projects that are still in early development stage, including Narrows Lake, Telephone Lake and Grand Rapids, while it continues to advance its Foster Creek and Christina Lake projects that are closer to completion. Under that capital plan, its production won’t be affected by today’s lower price until five years from now.

The same is true for most deep-water offshore fields, where companies may defer exploration or delay sanctioning new projects, but are unlikely to reverse course on those that are under development. Still, lower revenues will force an industry-wide cutback on activity.

Ms. Sen said the seeds of another cycle are now being planted. The current drop in prices will lead to lower-than-expected production in a few years, even as consumers increase consumption. U.S. gasoline demand is climbing at a rate well above its recent five-year average. And that classic supply-demand response could trigger a snap-back in prices in two or three years.

At the moment, though, “it’s hard to say anybody that relies on oil prices wins when prices are below $60 instead of $100 plus,” said R.J. Dukes, senior analyst with the Wood Mackenzie consultancy.

The oil slump is giving Canadians a long-awaited break at the pump, but is a worry for the country’s energy future. Since new oil sands projects are expected to have per-barrel costs of $80 or higher, they may no longer make sense, and the country may need to look to other sectors for new economic drivers.
3813  Economy / Economics / Re: When will the USA pay their debts, if ever? on: December 15, 2014, 08:26:20 PM
^
>prob'ly Randian liber
>complains about successful people succeeding

Get good, bro, and you'll be heard too Smiley

I'd settle for hearing others less.
3814  Economy / Economics / Re: The reason that crude oil price crashed on: December 15, 2014, 08:13:41 PM
The reason oil prices have come down is because OPEC has cut prices arbitrarily. They were artificially high to begin with. On average it costs an OPEC nation ~$30 to produce a barrel of crude. They're still making a shitload of profit.

It's not arbitrary at all, and it's not really OPEC, as many OPEC members would rather see higher prices for their own internal political reasons. The primary driver is Saudi Arabia, who is trying to crush the shale oil producers in the US (particularly, and to some extent Canada) where oil cannot be produced at profit for less than $80 a barrel. A sustained price below that point is intended to chase US firms out of the market, as they can't produce profits at this level, which in the long-run would be good for Saudi Arabia.
3815  Other / Politics & Society / FEC Petition to Allow More Parties in Presidential Debates on: December 15, 2014, 08:09:49 PM
TL:DR Today is the last day you can submit a comment on a petition before the FEC to require the Commission on Presidential Debates to open the debates up to more than just Democrats and Republicans.

Direct link to petition: http://sers.fec.gov/forces/addcomments.htm?pid=95988

---------------------------------------

Long Version:
If you didn't know, the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) is not a non-partisan entity. It is staffed entirely by Democrats and Republicans, and in what I'm sure is just a coincidence [/sarcasm], those are the only two parties ever invited to partake in the debates.

The two party system is strangling this country. There is an open comment period that ENDS TODAY by the FEC regarding allowing more parties to enter into the presidential debates. The CPD needs to hear from the public that we want more choices than the two we always get, in hopes that having more choices will force the parties to actually be responsive to voters, and not special interests. Even if you believe this is naive, having more choices will not hurt, as it will dilute the concentration of power the Democrats and Republicans have.

The Federal Election Commission is accepting comments until the end of TODAY on a proposed rule that would prohibit the Commission on Presidential Debates from requiring qualified candidates to achieve a polling threshold in order to participate in the presidential debates.

Comments are open until close-of-business today, and filing a "I support the petition" comment is easy, and VERY important.

>>INSTRUCTIONS<<
Click http://sers.fec.gov/fosers/;
Click "Submit Comments on Ongoing Rule makings";
Click "add comment" beside "REG 2014-06 Amendment of 11 C.F.R. 110.13(c)"; (the bottom of the two)
Scroll down and click "next";
Fill in your contact information and hit "next";
Type "I support the petition" or another message about opening the debates up to more parties and click "next";
Click "submit".
Make sure and click "submit" again until you get a "confirmation notice".

Please share the "Instructions" above to activist friends, since the number of comments, not just the substance of individual comments, will impact the decision of the FEC on its regulation of debates. Our America Initiative has submitted a substantive comment and thanks all libertarians for submitting their "support of the petition".

Thanks to anyone who helps.
3816  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is dead? 350$ :( on: December 15, 2014, 07:25:51 PM
It's amazing really isn't it, when people finally get the stability they've been bitching for all of a sudden Bitcoin is dead and isn't going anywhere, I can still freely trade and spend my Bitcoins and nothing is wrong with how the network works, so I don't think it's dead.

I agree with you. I much prefer a stable lower price than a wildly fluctuating price that is sometimes higher and sometimes lower. The most important function of a currency is a stable store of value. I crave predictability.
3817  Economy / Economics / Re: When will the USA pay their debts, if ever? on: December 15, 2014, 07:22:14 PM
With a democracy everyone's voice/opinion can be heard equally which promotes fairness.

In theory. Practice has a funny way of not following theory though. In America, your voice is heard much more equally if you have millions of dollars to spend on political ads.
3818  Other / Politics & Society / Re: CNN national poll: Rand Paul 13%, Bush 13%, Ryan 12%, Huckabee 10%, Christie 9% on: December 15, 2014, 07:14:35 PM
The Courtship: How Rand Paul Became a 'Chamber Republican'
Quote
Rand Paul had screwed up, and he knew it.

It was June and the Kentucky senator was in Texas speaking to a group of tea-party activists when he got loose with his words. "Chamber of Commerce is fine, I was a member of the Chamber of Commerce," Paul told the state's Republican Liberty Caucus. "But a Chamber of Commerce Republican is not going to win a national election."

It was a bold statement for a Republican plotting his own path to presidency. Too bold, he and his advisers realized almost immediately. While Paul has nurtured an iconoclastic libertarian image—stomping across Washington in cowboy boots and jeans, casting himself as a rare Republican willing to go to Berkeley, say, or reach out to black voters—he has also methodically courted the power class here in Washington.

Slapping at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce was not part of that game plan. Instead, it represented a political low in his relationship with the nation's most powerful business lobby. But by the fall, Paul wasn't swiping at the business lobby anymore; he was starring in their television ads in four Senate races, including spots to air in crucial early presidential battlegrounds of Iowa and New Hampshire. How Paul recovered from that verbal stumble and resuscitated his relationship with the chamber says a lot about the balancing—some say contortionist—act he is attempting as he readies a White House run.

More...http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/the-courtship-how-rand-paul-became-a-chamber-republican-20141214

To me, this is a sad reminder that Rand Paul's image as a libertarian is just an image. He's the same as every other politician in DC. One who makes the connections with and concessions to special interests in order to be electable, and often to the detriment to the people he's supposed to serve: the public.
3819  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Empire -- RSFSR under USSR -- Russian Federation on: December 15, 2014, 07:03:06 PM
I just don't find it credible that Russia wasn't calling the shots politically in the USSR. Do you have (respected) sources to substantiate such a claim? I studied US-Soviet relations during the Cold War in college, and asking me to believe the the Russian satellites were politically and militarily more important than Moscow is a great stretch, to put it politely.
3820  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Elizabeth Warren and Nancy Pelosi are right on: December 15, 2014, 06:53:21 PM
Both the Red and Blue team stand for the same thing, redistributing wealth from those that produce to those that do not. The only conflict between them is which parasitic aspect of society gets the spoils.
the GOP generally favor lower taxes which prevents income/assets from being redistributed. They tend to favor the free market as opposed to forcing people/businesses to act a certain way

This is the lie they need you to believe. Take a look around. Republicans block democratic tax cuts when it target the not-rich or when it's politically expedient. And there's nothing free market about the way the US economy runs. Whether it's health insurance, telecom, financial, medical, pharmaceutical etc. All the major industries are not free-market, and they're rigged to ensure the politically-connected are winners. The most abusive and easily identifiable instances of crony capitalism are in the defense industry. War is profitable.
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