For some time now I have been seeing the price of bitcoin fluctuate between $30k to $40k.If it is stable,I think it is possible to make a good profit.
Bitcoin might have a slightly stable price in next 7 days before big changes come. You can see it with 1D chart and some indicators. Also can be seen with BTC.D and OTHERS.D (1D charts). They will stay around their positions in next one week. Altcoin dominance (OTHERS.D) is reaching the resistance and Bitcoin dominanc is almost at its good support. Altcoin dominance can increase more before get a pull back but a slightly stable price of bitcoin is enough for them to take off. Other indicators show they might remain above upper band or lower than lower band for a while (up to around 7 days) till the end of January or very early days of February. |
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Dominance on the market, for both bitcoin or altcoins are distorted significantly by DeFi tokens. They have huge total supply, current supply and over-valued price so that they add up a lot of marketcap for altcoins. Bitcoin dominance was decreased by its price is one side but there is a second side from altcoins as said. Despite of the distortion from altcoin dominance, they (altcoins) have been slowly heated up last one or two months, and fastly speeded up in the last two weeks. Altcoin season is coming but you will be late much if you join now. The best time to prepare for the season is 2 weeks ago not now. |
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Some details must be checked carefully but I doubt that newbies will do all steps and check all details. This habit makes them become the most vulnerable people of scammers. Token name and token ticker are the first things to check, then smart contract address, and decimal. The last thing to check is website link (it is almost unnecessary as if you know about the official website, you would click on hyperlink from it and get legit details). - Token name
- Token ticker
- Smart contract address
- Decimal
- Official website
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Who holds more bitcoin combined? Individual investors because of their sheer number or whales/II's because of the amount that they own and can buy.
Exchanges, institutes, entities, whales are the dominant bitcoin owners. You can check the rich list of bitcoin there. There are 0.01% of Bitcoin addresses have 1000+ bitcoin and those addresses contain 5,493,831 BTC totally that account for 29.53% of current total supply. In past months of 2020, there are more institutes joined the bitcoin market and they bought a lot of bitcoin as well moved them out of exchanges to their possible cold wallets. |
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which we know that account sold to another user can cause different issues to whom that bought it
Buyers take risk and they deserve any consequence at the ends. Account selling has more consequence for the forum and forum members: spam, scam, loan default, troll, etc. Those consequences are bigger than anything will happen with buyers. |
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Ignore all potential and real bias or uncertain factors, those charts disclose a general picture of the market (new inflow of observers, investors, capital)Another way to detect retail effects - Twitter followers of Crypto exchanges and Youtube's subscribers of influencers.
- Upticks on those bar charts indicate something.
Sources: Now, ignore them and take a glance at the chart for Pageviews of Bitcoin Wikipedia's page. It shows people searched, were directed to that page and maybe spent more time (assumed so) to read Bitcoin Wiki. The more knowledgeable they are, the higher probability that they will spend capital (or spend more) to invest in bitcoin. Many of them are future of bitcoin market.
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UpdatePrice and volume charts- Volume hits its all time high at $123,320,567,399 on 11 Jan 2021. So impressive!
- It is a rise of about 50% from 4 Jan 2021. After the all time high, volume is falling to around $70 billion per day
Bump-Hump-Lump-Dump pattern - It is an interesting pattern for bull market
- Finally, the 2020 - Jan 2021 parabolic growth is broken and it fits the pattern.
- Anyway, let's try to accumulate more bitcoin with such breaks and prepare for next bull round. The parabolic curve is on-going
Don't worry about the recent correction, it is expected - According to the Mayer Multiple bands.
- The price has not topped yet for this bull market. The band will be expanded or narrowed down (but it might be expanded more as it is a bull market) and for now the top is around $73k
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Can anyone explain such a high activity? Edited: I think this is a record ... 37,065 accounts were registered on January 20. In median of 16 days in January of 2021 (p50 value in the raw result table): there is 1911 new members daily. The max value is 11413.
A new record for daily new users after many months, about 3 times of the past record at 11413. Reasons: I am thinking of some possible reasons: - Bounties: new bounties from shit altcoins. It is the most likely reason as bounties are very easy in rules and accept newbie accounts. I did neigher visit nor follow the bounties board for so long so I don't know what has been happening in the child board recent weeks.
- Possible checks
- Checks and compares total posts in bounties past 1 to 4 weeks and previous few months
- Real new users joined the forum: I don't believe it is the case, especially with such a spike. Honestly, I did not create the account on the forum since the first day I knew it. I only read as a guest.
- SEO-attacks, again: I don't think it is a reason as recent days, I did not saw shit posts with dozens of hyperlinks like back in December 2020.
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Hey, altcoins have been cooked and heated significantly in a short period. Below is the points of altcoins that shows altcoin season has yet to come. BUT 67 points mean it gradually rises and almost touches the critical threshold at 75 points. Additionally, today, I brought the All-year chart to you. If you are astute, you will notice the visual periodic cycle for altcoins. The length between the past altcoin season and today is still less than average length between past seasons. If you naively believe in history and assume history will be repeated exactly, altcoin season need a few more time (weeks, maybe) to officially activated. But yeah, joining the party when it is confirmed can be a trap as same as some delayed TA indicators like MACD, RSI, etc. You know what I meant.  |
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1. Not supported by bitcointalk admin
There has been thread before about bitcointalk forum to be selling ranked accounts in the past, but according to theymos it will not happen.
Those topics come from account sellers, hackers, not from the forum. You missed one point here. 2. Hacked accounts can be sold
The person that bought the account will happily make his first post while the account owner will report that his account has been compromised. If he signed staked address he will be given back the account thereby leading to the buyers to lost money.
There are 3 scenarios to lose money: - Get scammed by account sellers. You go first with your money but don't receive any account back.
- The real owner of account manages to get the sold account back shortly. It won't happen too often as most of sold accounts are very old ones (from hacks years ago AND real onwers almost left the forum or forgot about their hacked accounts)
- The bought account can be locked by the forum by security reasons. Account buyers won't be able to prove ownership and unlock it
3. Other fraudulent activities
~ snip ~
This is the main reason I even hate sales of account. And the reason I proposed official seeling of account by admin which can possibly lead people selling account underground not to be able to again.
Account buyers mostly buy it for bad reasons: - To run their scam projects, to do scam activities (no-collateral loan, big off-Escrow trades, etc.) but there is no point that account sales from the forum can prevent such the things.
- The forum can not ask the buyers to send any amount of bitcoin as security deposit for scam prevention.
- It is unrealistic, even it is applied, how long the security deposit will be released? Again, it is unrealistic and impossible.
4. New members not knowing about the forum at all
Account buyers are not newbies. You know that. Newbies don't know the forum enough to think of buying account for scam/ fraudulent activities. 5. Bought accounts can be banned and most likely will be banned
I was wondering before why legendary account and hero accounts are banned, later I noticed some can be bought accounts, newbies do not know about the forum, bought ranked membership account and was banned because he violate the forum rules which likely to occur to newbies, this is likely common the reason you should pass through the newbie period by opening newbie account for good.
Bought accounts can be banned for past rule-breaking activities (mostly are plagiarsim years ago) or from new owners. However, real owners who buy accounts to scam, don't mind when it will be banned. It is throw-away account. 6. Thinking they will buy account and join signature campaign quickly
Psychologically thinking, account sellers even leave no smerits at all and the account do not have single merit in the last 120 days.
Earned 0 merit in last 120 days or a lot from abuse, it does not make sense and won't help them to get spots in good campaigns. Professional managers exclude them at very first screening rounds. Again, they are not real newbies!
Don't expand your posts too lengthy that looks like your style which is bad and does not help you to earn merit. You will have higher odds to earn merit, with same contents and shorter posts. |
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Dear LoyceV, I kindly ask you and the other gang members to to squeeze in a bit and make a bit of room for me as well inside the foxhole. Thank you for understanding If I recalled correctly, The Pharmacist is the last one joined the club, before you, and it happened many months ago. After that last round of acceptance, Foxup said he did not plan to expand the club more. Congratulations for your empty signature space, the new avatar and a position in the club. Of course, as same as @fil. I hope that I might get a spot in the club in the future. |
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The 2021 season will be mostly for new altcoins with convincing usecases. The time for altcoins to easily hype investors with promises, roadmap might be gone. Fortunately, such seasons will be repeated somewhat extent as the market always have new generations join. They are fresh meats for whales, sharks, and scammers.
I really doubt it. There is nothing changed about the market and the market participants to suggest they would start looking for real altcoins with real use cases. They are the same traders, or better said gamblers, looking for quick pump and dumps to make a lot of profit by making bets on random shitcoins. Keep in mind that 2017 shitcoin pumping season was not the first time it happened, each "season" may get bigger but the principle is the same. They create a lot of useless garbage, they pump those and the old existing garbage and others participate hoping to make profit. You are correct. I said that such crazy altcoin season needs to have a new wave of fresh meat that is probably what the market has now and in near future. However, bigger or smaller, it will depends on how bigger or smaller the wave of capital from fresh meat. With bigger adoption and supports from media platforms, new waves to cryptocurrency might be much bigger than past waves which can help whales/ sharks/ scam developers. However, the old shit altcoins will struggle to recover, and scam investors again. Some might get success but most won't. Investors (fresh meat) will mainly be scammed by newborn projects. By the way, scammers of old projects that was in hypernation for months, years but now return to revise their projects. Methods can be swap: swap from old shit chain to a new shit chain. I was scammed by such in the past (I did not have much experience). In 2020, I saw some old altcoin projects announce their swap to DeFi tokens. I am sure that next 4 or 5 years they will swap to ShitFi or other else. 
Before, we'd just look at the bitcoin market dominance to determine whether it's alt season or not. I've read many people say 40% or less means it's alts season already. It would be interesting to know if that happens but only 50% of the top 50 coins outperformed BTC in 90 days. Not meeting the criteria set on the website.
Bitcoin dominance is biased and distorted a lot by total marketcap from DeFi tokens and non-DeFi altcoins. You can use dominance with such caution. I wish in the future, some developers will code and release dominance indicators for altcoins with different age groups: <6 months, 6 months - <1 year, 1 - 3 year, 4+ year. |
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The graph is actually available on my spreadhseet.There you can check all the source data and spot if there is any inaccurate or missing data in it. Thank you and I will check it. The gaps you see on the red lines are the days with no inflows in the fund. They are most probably due to a closure in the fund subscriptions, rather than lack of buyers.
GBTC is usually open to subscriptions, but they can actually close the possibility to enter into it at their own discretion (there is an unclear correlation with other metrics on this).
It is what I guess, zero inflows can reflect closure of their fund subsrciptions for their customers (investors), as you said. If it is not the case, zero inflow and repeats over time like the chart will be a strange phenomena.
Yes, the inflow dropped to zero if no one is investing with Grayscale at some moment in time.
Nope. No one invests in a period is different than a closure of fund subscriptions for investors. No one invest can be an indicator for lack of interest in bitcoin investment, as consequence of FUD, massacre on the market, whatsoever. Taking the graph as an example, you will notice it is plotted in 2 weeks ranges in day on the horizontal axis, I mean the days are differs to the next in 2 weeks.
You should be careful when you are interpret charts like this. Dates on a chart can be chosen to display on daily, weekly, bi-weekly basis, but the chart can be daily or weekly. They are different charts even the range you see is for every 2 weeks. Moreover, dates on chart are not exactly for every 2 weeks, anywhere from 2 weeks to 3 weeks. I see the dates on chart but don't know the spreadsheet so that I asked the question. In addition, I only asked about the zero or nearly zero inflow days. |
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Lots of paranoia plus crossing of t's and dotting of i's.
What is your paranoia ? People gave you some advice and below is a guide from LoyceV, that you should read Transaction fee - There are weekend and hourly effects so please make sure to have plans for your transactions
- Check details with Guide to check fees: Taker, maker, deposit, withdrawal, transaction fees (Read the bottom part and hyperlinks). Weekends have effects on transaction fees with both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Sundays have lowest transaction fee and lower than Saturday, in average/ median. Hours from 0 to 12 UTC usually the best time to get cheaper transaction fees.
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I'm currently developing a monthly and yearly chart. It'll be out very soon.
Interesting point about volatility depending on time of month, I did not know about this.
That thread is not exactly answer this question, but somewhat and you can handle it by your side I think. You also can visually detect it with Heikin Ashi candle on trading view, 1D chart. Yes, that is a very common critique, people do hate the moving lines. I'll make them static.
It is your good choice and will be a good upgrade for your site. I can expose an API that you can use to pull the data as JSON, that should be very simple as I'm already set up to do that.
I am not a coder so I can not handle with JSON. It will be good if you dump your data in csv format that is one of standard for machine-readable data.
Another note is Twitter is full of farm accounts so do you exclude them from your analysis. Farm accounts can bias your result a lot. - Twitter Audit score
- I guess you know it, and if you can include this criteria for your analysis (with or without Audit score -- then with same categories based on Audit scores) it can be great
- I meant, effects from farm accounts and from famous accounts are different
- I don't believe in such tool (it is biased-tool as same as Google Trend) to predict bitcoin price but as you planned to do it, it is my suggestion
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My request to expand my loan on 5 Jan 2021, So it takes 15 days (5 Jan to 19 Jan 2021). The loan repayment will be 0.101755 BTC as calculated below. . di (0.117*15*.1/100)+.1
.101755
Thank you for the initial loan and the expansion.
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Thank you for creating that website with visual real-time updated charts. Some contributions: - So far, there are 2 options for time frames: 4h and 24h at Bitcoin News Sentiment Analysis. If you can, I'd like to see the chart for one to 3 months.
- Reasons
- Bitcoin is volatile in beginning, middle or ending of months. A wider time frame can help to see such changes and correlations with twitter sentiment/ volume
- The visual charts
- The animation (in lines) on charts are annoying, in my opinion. You should change it to static.
- It distract viewers' eyes and challenging to focus on different lines and figure out what is implied behind them (correlations, ie.)
- Data table: how to dowload it (with wider period)?
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The inflow chart has some dips or gaps between rising waves or spikes. I can not get figures on the chart but it seems to drop to zero in gaps. I am not familiar with Grayscale activities and I guess these gaps are correlated with their investment plans (monthly ?). Something like CME future gaps in weekends. Would you mind explaining it a bit, @fil. please. |
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Now that I have to do another transaction, I'll use your links to know what fee I should set up
Now, if you want to do your transaction and want to get quick confirmation in next 1 or 2 blocks, the fee to use is 50 satoshi/vbyte. Fortunately, if you can wait from 1 hour to 3 hours, you can try with the fee rate from 5 satoshi/vbyte to 7 satoshi/vbyte. Of course, it is applied with the condition that mempool won't be suddenly loaded up too much. Check mempool (the third chart) there: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,24h- Hovering mouse on third chart to see the total size (MB) of mempool for each fee range
- With this site, one bitcoin block will take up to 1 MB (maximum) from the tip of mempool.
Further advice, you need to make your plans: weekly (weekends tend to have cheaper transaction fees), then hourly. |
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