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3881  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Too many coin in circulation on: March 19, 2021, 02:45:05 PM
The sooner your learn what alts are about the better for your own good. The fact is that they are perfectly all right to play as bets or high risk and many of them produced extraordinary results in the past.



Notice that none of this gave the profit in the form of yield, they are mostly about price growth. Second, the key to invest is having the time and knowledge to figure out if a team really has the ability and the resources to effectively carry out a project. Entrepreneurship is a difficult and complex business and is easy to fall for a scam, or what is more frequent, an incompetent team.
3882  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Staking is not for Muslims on: March 19, 2021, 02:39:03 PM
I think this is open for interpretation. Firstly, it depends on what you consider core to your beliefs and the bit about lending may not be strictly taken by many of your bros. On top of that, while you do get a yield from staking, is not a payment for a lending and that is something that is not well understood:

Staking means that you are providing a counterpart to a possible malicious attack on a network by making economic stake on the truthfulness of the node's computation and transactions veracity. This is NOT lending, this is providing a service consisting of ensuring the safety of a network and you get paid for it.

A different thing is to consider it a bad or a good business.
3883  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting Experiment #2: Chasing the Draw on: March 19, 2021, 02:28:46 PM
~snip~

... Martingale strategy. I have bitter experience. ..

Why do people try again and again something that is perfectly proven by math and by practice that eventually produces and event that will send your balance to zero? That is, I could understand that from a 10 year old - a silly one only - but we all known that everything based on doubling the bet is just nil.

Any experiment involving martingale is doomed to fail.
3884  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Another insane win!! $ 1B mega million jackpot on: March 19, 2021, 02:25:52 PM
In the last few weeks Americans have been very lucky in the lottery, this time there is a man who won $ 1 billion dollars from the mega million lotteries.  btw, I have tried for unclear reasons, the man's identity is still a secret.  


You must be joking, if I ever earn even a tenth of that money I would certainly would not want anyone to know anything about me. And that is me - a quite boring guy with a quite boring life no debts and living strictly within the law - so I could imagine someone getting that kind of money and having the usual "friends" that will all the sudden re-appear, or some type of debt or any connection to shady stuff.

If it were me, I would probably try a full identity change.
3885  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Fake bets on: March 19, 2021, 02:15:23 PM
I guess that all casinos need a bit of boosting to attract higher bets and more users. On this case, it seems that the streamer is kind of playing the role of the house with the houses money. Even if the practice is doubtful, it does not really seem illegal.

There is a similar trick from traders that would sell you their method. They open 10 or 20 accounts and they will only show you the ones that made outstanding results.
3886  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread on: March 19, 2021, 02:04:50 PM




Looks to me like a Jamon Serrano (Serrano Ham) which I guess is perfectly adequate for the occasion Smiley In respect to Chelsea matching with Real Madrid, as things are now, I would be careful with what I wish. Real Madrid is super strong and is not as dependant as other on a single player.
3887  Other / Beginners & Help / Monitoring the bitcoin net - any tools? on: March 19, 2021, 09:12:56 AM
I am interested in knowing what others use to have an idea of how many transactions are happening, volumes, .... Yes, i do know google exists, but I would rather have your fine human expertise on this. Large transactions would also be interesting to know about.
3888  Economy / Economics / Re: Free Market Efficiency vs GPU Scalpers 2 on: March 18, 2021, 10:04:02 PM
Are people actually squirreling away that many GPUs?  I've been watching Youtube videos about the GPU shortage and none of them have mentioned anything like that.  I had assumed the scalpers were just individuals with enough cash to snap up a handful or two of the most popular models and then selling them at jacked up prices on eBay.  If there are large-scale operators hoarding GPUs like that, I'd love to read about it.
...

I agree with that and I am sceptic about the argument. As of now, there is general worldwide shortage of electronics, precisely of chips, due to the extreme unexpected demand due to COVID and some shortages of raw materials such as tin due to the commodities cycle.

As far as I am concerned, this market is no different from other oligopolistic ones. It is very difficult to get into the GPU business and there are just three options in the market, and that if you consider Intel Graphics and option at all.
3889  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Stablecoins are not stable on: March 18, 2021, 09:57:44 PM
The so called stablecoins are usually paired with the US Dollar. However, true stability should mean that they correlate well with the increase in the cost of living. Thus, calling stablecoin to UST or others is simply not correct.

A true stablecoin would not be linked to USD but to the level of prices in a basket of products in different countries. I am going to dare to say that it should be related to gold, as this metal has traditionally preserved its value (some people argue)

I guess that what I am trying to say is that stability cannot be measured in currency.
3890  Economy / Economics / Re: How much can you make by saving and compounding on: March 18, 2021, 09:44:13 PM

No. Sp500 is not "a quite safe investment". It is  'dancing on a knife's edge'. Remember "past performance is no guarantee of future results"

True, it does not guarantee future results, but long term it is certainly quite safe. It is a well know fact that there is not any period of 20 years in all the SP history that has yielded negative results and, as average, it yields around 6%. In fact, stocks are actually safer than bonds even the popular belief is the opposite.

Even for shorter periods of time, e.g. 10 years, you would really need to buy at a extreme market peak to loose money. See that my post specifies that the results are dependent on the decades that lie ahead, which are said to be not that great.

I do agree with you that during the last 12 months, anyone could make a 25% without much thought.



3891  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gamblers - How do you use your signature campaign earnings? on: March 18, 2021, 07:30:24 PM
Merit is challenging to earn, you'll need to make constructive posts, or mostly threads to contribute to the community. However, not intending to bash at you, but you're at the gambling subforum, you're expected to gamble if you are here lol.
...

Or at least you should be able to add a bit to the discussion. It is very rare that someone does not know anything about football, nor poker, nor any game whatsoever. In my case, my favourite is Poker, pariticularly Texas hold'em, so part of my earnings will likely end up at a poker table.
3892  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Are you a lone bettor or a competitive one? on: March 18, 2021, 07:27:22 PM
I used to avoid competitions and preferred to just place my own bets on sports to see how it goes. I was glad to win and sad to lose, and it was between me and sports. In autumn, however, I entered a Sportsbet EPL prediction competition, and after months of it going on, I must say that I do find it engaging when various people make predictions for the same games, and then I can see how other people are making their decisions and how they are performing as well. At first, I thought I had no chance there, but I'm currently lucky to be in top-10, so now I do care about remaining there Smiley
...
Do you prefer being on your own with your matches and bets or do you like to take part in various tournament to boost the competitive spirit of it all?

Is about having fun, so for me is more fun when you play with others, whether that is in a competitive league or, my favourite, with friends while watching a game. The key to have fun is too keep it a game and not getting "to hot" in your head. Remember that, after all, they are friends and only momentarily rivals.
3893  Economy / Economics / How much can you make by saving and compounding on: March 18, 2021, 07:23:59 PM
One of the best know says of Warren Buffet is "It is not about timing the market, it is about time in the market". What he means that if you let the interest compound over a long period, the results can be amazing.

Independently of the style of investment (crypto, fixed income, variable rent, high yield, ...), it is good to take a look about what compounding can do for you. Please, note that you would need to subtract inflation and that can be big in some countries if you only invest locally.

These are very simple simulations that shows you how far can your saving and investing go. In each one you put an initial amount on an investment and then you add a bit more each year.

For each case, you get the final amount on money you get depending on the average yield that your investment gives you (this not mathematically accurate, but is good enough. For example, the SP500 index in the past usually yields 6% and is considered a quite safe investment. I have calculated for 6%, 12% and 18%. I call this, the boring 6%, the "nice 12%" and the "the gods love me much 18%" average yield a year.

This will give you the graphs and results for 17 years. Why 17? No particular reason Smiley


SIMULATION 1: Initial savings 5000, and you won't add anything else.



As you can see, a final capital of 13.000 is perfectly achievable with a 6% yield, while you can dream of 83.000. This is not bitcoin remember Smiley


SIMULATION 2: Initial savings 1000, and 1000 more a year.



Better results overall, with a basic of 31000 and a dreamy 104 if you catch a great decade of yields.

SIMULATION 3: Initial savings 5000, and 1000 more a year.



Better results overall, with a basic of 42,000 and a dreamy 170,000, this looks like a great option.

Notice that this is not USD specific, so 170,000 may not be "dreamy" in your currency. However, if you think of it, it should not be difficult for the average joe to save 100 dollar or euros or pounds a month in OCDE countries, and the effects on retirement can be noticeable. See a previous post on that here.


3894  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What games are best suitable for PvP gambling? on: March 18, 2021, 08:34:33 AM
....
 Also, there are altcoin projects that allow people to challenge each other and bet on popular online games like CS:GO or Dota, but so far they didn't accomplish any major success.
...

It is difficult to tap into this industry, but i would not say that you should be calling all projects dead just yet. An ICO that I managed in my local board (Asuracoin) seems to be pretty much dead and some other like "flipcoin" do not seem to go any further. However, the industry is so big and there is so much growth that there will certainly be more projects in the comming years.
3895  Economy / Economics / Re: Your pots of money and thinking long term / retirement / life after retirement on: March 18, 2021, 01:08:53 AM
... I will likely just go stick with option (C) crypto products like the KCS token that will provide dividends or the Casino tokens that distribute coins as well. ...

Nice add. Are you aware of the 10 page disclaimer attached to that type of stuff? Are you aware that those yields only happen if the coin / network does actually have real use?

Let me put it another way: Would you be happy to die of hunger if those investments go to zero (which can easily be the case).

...
There are way too many "what ifs".What if I lose my job/income source,so I can't save enough money?
What if the stock market crashes?What if the bank,in which I'm saving my money goes bankrupt?
...

...
 Imagine you are driving at night. You will find that you can only see up to 250 feet (according to google Grin). The same goes for long-term planning. You can see only a few years in the future.
....

Yep, that is called working with incomplete information. In those cases you act on what you do know - e.g. the fact that you will need money later in life. The fact that there are unknowns is not a good reason not to act, but rather a reason to take action to mitigate risks.

As someone said, there are "two types of people, those who can work with incomplete information"

...
As for how to achieve this, it is mainly related to increasing your education, upgrading your intelligence, and spending more time learning rather than hard work.
...

I could not agree more. You need to understand money, investment and the world economy in general terms. I bet most people on this forum are on the idea that investing is a rulette.

Please, notice that I have not said that you need to work hard or that you need to have income just from work or from a company. I am a firm advocate for laziness, but meaning using your brains to work less and get more results.

This advice is not valid in every country and situation that's true, but it is a good start.

...
Working ( In company) for me wont make you "Real" rich in your lifetime because it is the company that your making richer and you as employee will always remain as a peanut richer against them.
...

This is not about being rich, is about planning. Actually, many people who worked for others do perfectly well and becomes what you could define as rich. See this case in which modest investors did become rich over time with Peter Lynch 20% yearly average return across several decades and this case. These two are very well known cases and not unique.

You can actually become "rich" or at least "rich enough" being a regular joe if you take the time to educate and understand your options.


...
The point is that if you focus your youth/maturity on increasing your wealth, you will certainly be better off in your old age than if you don't do it.
...

There you go, someone got the main point!



3896  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: What is Smerit on: March 18, 2021, 12:18:17 AM
This is an old infography I made a while ago. sMerit is what allows you to send merit to others. There are others as well mentioned here.



3897  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Newbie here - need to understand how it works for my purposes on: March 18, 2021, 12:13:38 AM
Thanks again guys!

So let me try with an example to validate my understanding...

I'm in Switzerland, so I'll base it off CHF.
If I want to buy CHF 200.- worth of BTC, I can subscribe to Binance and there I would receive 0.003665 BTC (as of the time of writing). I would guess that this would be already the net amount, with all fees detracted - correct?
So, when I have that amount of BTC, it is not yet in my wallet to be spent - correct? In fact, it is still deposited at Binance.
Afterwards I decide I want to use BTC to pay something I buy online. That's where my wallet comes into play, right? I go to Binance and withdraw some (or all) BTC. At this point, I have to pay 0.0005 BTC fees, which would leave me with 0.003165 in my wallet - right? When I look at this with the fiat currency, I would have to say that from CHF 200.- I put into BTC, I finally got only CHF 175.- in my wallet.

Is the above correct?

F.

Firstly, avoid  Binance, it is know to be particularly expensive. Secondly, localbitcoins will charge you a large spread, just because the guy has to make some profit for his time. My advice is to buy from someone you know who has an account. If you can't do some research on fees. Normally, you will pay something like 0.5% per trade and possible a withdrawal feed. You also need to see if they require KYC, ID, etc...

I do not know the spread from Paypal, but it may be worth having a look because it does not get much simpler than that and time is also valuable.
3898  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: An Indian casino in New York? on: March 17, 2021, 07:11:11 PM
I never heard of Native American casinos, is that even exist?
...
You must be joking Of course there are Indian casinos. It's a very big thing in the United States. In fact. If you look closely at the at the graph in the original post, you will see that their revenue is growing year on year. On the usual Las Vegas style, casinos are in fact lowering in revenue, so. Just take a look and I think your question. Is already answered.
3899  Economy / Economics / Re: Brexit Losses Continue to Mount on: March 17, 2021, 12:32:47 AM
London has long been the stock-trading center of Europe, but post-Brexit losses continue to siege traditionally strong British industries.  From the Financial Times:

Amsterdam surpassed London as Europe’s largest share trading centre last month as the Netherlands scooped up business lost by the UK since Brexit.

An average €9.2bn shares a day were traded on Euronext Amsterdam and the Dutch arms of CBOE Europe and Turquoise in January, a more than fourfold increase from December. The surge came as volumes in London fell sharply to €8.6bn, dislodging the UK from its historic position as the main hub for the European market, according to data from CBOE Europe.

The shift was prompted by a ban on EU-based financial institutions trading in London because Brussels has not recognised UK exchanges and trading venues as having the same supervisory status as its own.

Without this so-called equivalence to ease cross-border dealing, there was an immediate shift of €6.5bn of deals to the EU when the Brexit transition period concluded at the end of last year. It was about half of the amount of business that London banks and brokers would normally handle.

This happened only 1 month after Brexit went into effect.  Other industries have seen even worse consequences:

GDP was down 2.9% in January as the supply chains have been thrown into havoc and business disruptions have been described as "endemic," and it turns out the government didn't do an economic assessment on the trade deal despite it being the most consequential trade agreement in memory.  It's one thing to have the economy torpedoed by global macro economic conditions, it's an entirely different one to steer the ship headlong into the iceberg as Britain has done.


Fishery sports are nothing to UK's economy, the impact on the City is going to be severe short term but my take is that UK will de-regulate, which was the Brexit plan anyway. That should bring enough business back to recover.  Regarding exports, there is a short term impact on business due to new red-tape but that should be shorted with a little bit of time.

The problem has not been as much brexit as the double punch with COVID. Just think of it, if you could choose, you would have brexited better any other year. Those figures and the supply chains issues are basically related to COVID, not brexit.
3900  Economy / Economics / Your pots of money and thinking long term / retirement / life after retirement on: March 17, 2021, 12:23:25 AM
If you are not "rich", that is, you work hard for money a manage to save just some, perhaps nothing from month to month, you should be thinking about how to make sure you can live when old without being a burden for you family or having financial difficulties. If you holdled bitcoin since 10 years ago, you do not need to read any further, just enjoy. For the rest, here are some planning tips.

This is particularly important for Millenials (see graph below), as the rates of return for savings and investments are thought to be in decline.

However, you also want to life a good life - there is only one (unless you are Buddhist) - and you probably want to do things that require money. Striking a balance between these two is a little bit of an art.

How much do you need to saver? Too difficult to say in general. Some speakers and authors will tell you that it should be around 10% of your income, but if you earn little you may not be able to or if you want to retire very early you may need to do some extra effort.

 First thing to be clear, you can separate into bags or pots but in reality all your money is the same. Just use this as mind tool.

b) Decide what is the bare minimun you will need each month or year to retire having the basics: a roof over your head, food in the plate and medical care. This is your retirement minimum bag.

- Figure out how much capital (savings) you would need to obtain that monthly income. (e.g. you need 500 USD and you count on having your house paid). That x12 is what you need in a year (e.g. 12000).

- You should count on getting around 4% of your saving as dividend or rental income. To produce 6000 a year that is: 150.000 USD (that's 6000 / .04). That is your bare survival minimum, so you have to save and invest enough to make sure you have it by the time you think you will retire. Savings and investments for that pot have to be super low risk while allowing you to reach that figure. You may think that you will get a pension and that will take care, but I advise you not to count on that. Just make sure you do not depend on someone else for food.

b) Decide what would be a good level of income that would grant you some travelling, leisure or whatever you would like. Let's say that is 1000 a month on top of you bare minimum. That is you wish bag. You can count for this on pension or other income, just halve what you think would be reasonable (e.g. you expect a state or private pension of 1000 per month, count only with 500).

Now you have to figure out how much you would need for that. Again, at 4% would be (12 month x 1000 = 12.000 a year, so capital should be 12.000 / .04 = 300.000 USD. This may seem like quite a bit of money (it is very personal anyway, people have different incomes).

Since you know your goal, you would now setup your saving strategy, but this time you can take part in more risky (yet higher reward) investments. This should help you reach that apparently high figure if you start saving when young.

c) You moon-shot: If you still are able to save more after your two first bags, you can now have your moonshot bag. You can choose any ammount here, and you will invest this in high risk / high paying investments (e.g. crypto). If this goes well, you will retire early and or rich.

All this requires talking about different investment styles and methods. If there is some interest I will later continue the post with ideas on that.

Just as a hint for Millenials:

What to expect from the typical S&P 500 index fund. Current CAPE is high, meaning that standard returns will not be great during the next 10 years (probably)

20 year investments across different decades:

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