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3881  Economy / Speculation / Re: MtGox: Reason for imbalance in market depth (bid/ask) on: January 29, 2013, 10:45:46 PM


Logarithmic growth since last year.

Do you mean exponential?
3882  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bears, it's over. on: January 29, 2013, 06:32:35 PM
Well even IF BTC goes to the moon there likely will be multiple large corrections. Still that does little good if someone is waiting for $1 USD:BTC and even with the next correction it doesn't go below $11.  Smiley

Very true with regard to relative price change - but I will be quite surprised if we don't see sub $10USD btc at some time within the next 6 months.  And for the record - no I'm not waiting on $1 btc - though I wouldn't be to upset to see it ;-)

Prepare to be surprised.  I would love the opportunity to buy at $10 again.
3883  Economy / Speculation / Re: Call the Peak Contest/Experiment (1 BTC Prize) on: January 29, 2013, 05:05:03 AM
I think we're unlikely to see the price go higher than that before May.

Oh, shut up Prouhon.  You're getting repetitive and boring.

Ok, Bitcoin Price, rah, rah, rah, UP, UP, UP!

Thanks, that's better Tongue.
3884  Economy / Speculation / Re: Time series analysis on: January 29, 2013, 04:59:48 AM
Your null forecast reminded me, there was someone awhile back who randomly bought or sold based on a coinflip for a couple months. I'm not sure what happened in the end but that thread may be of interest to you. Also, has the daily average ever stayed exactly the same for two consecutive days? That seems like a null hypothesis that is known to be false a priori, but maybe it still works for these purposes.  These are good threads btw.

He was flipping for trades on Bitcoinica.  Zhoutong ate his account along with everyone else's (not trading loses).
3885  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: There has to be a better way (getting USD to BTC) on: January 28, 2013, 07:24:11 PM
Bitcoin-otc seems like a good way to trade, but it's the opposite of user friendly, and it's very easy to get scammed. Actually, my only attempt to trade on bitcoin-otc resulted in myself being scammed  Shocked.

Try Bitcoinary.com, lot's of traders, user friendly and with escrow.

Link in my sig.

One plug per thread is probably enough Wink
3886  Economy / Speculation / Re: A Japanese Candlestick Analysis on: January 28, 2013, 07:31:33 AM
technical analysis could be a self fulfilling prophecy.
The more people believe in technical analysis and act accordingly, the more the patterns "predicted" by techical analysis start showing up in real world measurment values.

So there are two aspects to this issue.
  • if you want to prove scientifically that there is some real effect, as opposed to just an assumed effect, then you'd need a way to prevent your test subject to know the rules to be proved -- to prevent behaviour according to an assumed effect. Some kind of a double blind test
  • if you're looking just for some practical guidelines, the more people know and believe in technical analysis, the better. Congratulations, you've produced a nice flock of mentally conditioned sheep.  Grin

technical analysis isn't voodoo. it isn't something you believe in or you don't. most indicators are price/volume transforms and their abstractions. if you understand the behavior of price and volume generally (no rallies on decreasing volume, support/resistance at price levels, and retracements) then you'll understand technical analysis. i'm tired of this lemming bullshit. if you just go "LOOK THE PRETTY PICTURES ARE GOING UP UP UP" then you're not doing technical analysis.

Right, there are certain regions that the indicators won't go or won't go for long.  When you know a move in a particular direction would take the indicator somewhere it doesn't like to be then that direction is less likely to occur.  The money is in herding, not stampeding.
3887  Economy / Economics / Re: How much is a chicken in BTC in your place? on: January 26, 2013, 08:15:20 AM
I'm certain that I would be able to purchase two chickens with one Bitcoin, if the market accepted Bitcoin.

If you're in the US, I can ship you a pack of chicks for BTC.  Just throw them some feed and give them a little shelter and you'll have tasty chickens in no time.

But who will slaughter them for me? I ain't killing animals raised by myself.

Using a knife blessed by a priest slice both jugular veins while looking the animal in the eye with a sense of gratitude in your heart.
3888  Other / Off-topic / Re: Fing Car wont start on: January 25, 2013, 10:54:44 PM
0 room in the back seats, but my kids are 2 and 0 so doesn't matter... the trunk has alot of room

 Grin
3889  Other / Off-topic / Re: What we've learnt today. on: January 25, 2013, 10:45:17 PM
Today I learned that more than 1000 bitcointalk users want to look at someone elses' cock.
Or maybe there are just 100 users who want to look at someone elses' cock 10 times.
There's still more to learn about this, I see...

SOURCE: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=136167

I have a felling I don't want to click on that.

Also, if that is the thread you are skewing your data since people might click it without wanting to look at a cock.  This is a bad rickroll.
TIL notme has fellings.

I've murdered more than one tree.
3890  Economy / Speculation / Re: 17 is the new 12 on: January 25, 2013, 10:17:59 PM
If you think it most probably will drop soon - then it is better to sell now - even if you think that some day in the future it will go up, because you can always buy back cheaper... if you are right.

FTFY

Also probability says you will be wrong fairly often, so make sure you use proper money management practices and don't bet the farm on one move.
3891  Other / Off-topic / Re: What we've learnt today. on: January 25, 2013, 08:30:09 PM
Today I learned that more than 1000 bitcointalk users want to look at someone elses' cock.
Or maybe there are just 100 users who want to look at someone elses' cock 10 times.
There's still more to learn about this, I see...

SOURCE: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=136167

I have a felling I don't want to click on that.

Also, if that is the thread you are skewing your data since people might click it without wanting to look at a cock.  This is a bad rickroll.
3892  Economy / Speculation / Re: Could deals like this be real and if yes explain the recent big buys and sells? on: January 25, 2013, 08:28:03 PM
Quote
The South African army’s technical support was part of a shift towards the use of surveillance tech in conservation. Drones, which are cheaper than ever thanks to the U.S. military’s decade-plus of development along with a new private drone economy, have become popular in ecology and conservation efforts. Ecologists working with orangutans were notable early adopters, with drones offering the ability to fly over forests for surveys far cheaper than manned flights could ever be.

Drones are making their way into the wildlife trade as well. Google recently gave the WWF $5 million for drones to protect wildlife in Africa and Asia, while a number of other conservation groups have been getting into the drone game. Clive Vivier, a 65 year old rhino farmer and co-founder of the Zululand rhino reserve in South Africa, recently received permission from the U.S. State Department to buy Arcturus T-20 drones, which feature 17-foot wingspans, 16 hour flight times, and which are used by the Navy.
http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/rhino-horn-crisis-and-the-darknet

There is some hope, with the use of drones to hunt the poachers down.

Until the poachers get their own drones.

Weapons only give temporary hope that requires rapidly expanding sums of money to reacquire once lost.
3893  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: There has to be a better way (getting USD to BTC) on: January 25, 2013, 08:25:09 PM


. . . I also don't think I can do the option where you walk into select stores and pay via cash (none of the stores look familiar to me so I don't think there are any in the state).

As far as I know, there is no CVS in Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, or Wyoming, but what state does someone have to live in for Walmart to not look familiar?

Maybe he doesn't live in a U.S. state?
3894  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: There has to be a better way (getting USD to BTC) on: January 25, 2013, 08:10:57 PM
Have you tried bitinstant.com ?

I looked at it but I don't really get how it speeds up the process.  In my case, I have funds in Dwolla that want to go to MtGox, how is their transfer faster?  Do I still need to wait until Dwolla verifies my photo ID?  The cash deposit to BTC looks interesting but it doesn't say what the exchange rate is and I honestly don't know how reputable these guys are.



Insisting on Dwolla and MtGox is how you ensure there is no better way.

There are lots of other options that are faster, cheaper, or both.

Personally, I prefer bitfloor since I can quickly send them p2p payments from my ING checking account. (BTW if you want an ING account, PM me your email and I'll send you an invite so we both get a free bonus).  Bitinstant is good too, although a bit pricey.  localbitcoins.com is great if there is someone near you who is willing to sell.
3895  Economy / Speculation / Re: 17 is the new 12 on: January 25, 2013, 08:06:07 PM

Right, it's a short term profits vs long term investor (or consumer) thing... nothing to do with physical strength or courage.
3896  Economy / Speculation / Re: 17 is the new 12 on: January 25, 2013, 07:54:45 PM
Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained.

Exactly. This is what is meant (imo) about the moving from weak hands to strong hands.

Yeah - because selling makes you weak - be strong - hold your coins no matter what.

That's the kind of argumentation I would expect from Madoff or some scientologist. 



It's not about selling.... it's about selling in the current situation.

Weak hands panic sell, strong hands look at the drop and either say 'meh' or wire funds to the exchanges if they haven't accumulated enough yet.

Weak hands are in it for short term profit, strong hands believe in bitcoin.

It's not dog eat dog, it's bull gore pig.

You sound like a sect.

Somehow I don't feel weak for selling in 2011

I don't think you are weak for selling in 2011, the situation was quite different then.
3897  Economy / Speculation / Re: Call the Peak Contest/Experiment (1 BTC Prize) on: January 25, 2013, 06:10:10 PM
Random guess: $18.88

Was that the peak, $19.18999?

Or do we have to wait until May and see if there's a higher peak?



I think we're unlikely to see the price go higher than that before May.

Oh, shut up Prouhon.  You're getting repetitive and boring.
3898  Economy / Speculation / Re: 17 is the new 12 on: January 25, 2013, 06:08:22 PM
Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.

Google should know that one.

My only point is that we can't move up while people who are unsure about higher prices hold the coins.  Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained.
3899  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 25, 2013, 05:46:14 PM
short squeeze in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ...

 Grin
3900  Economy / Speculation / Re: 17 is the new 12 on: January 25, 2013, 05:44:43 PM
Weak hands panic sell, strong hands look at the drop and either say 'meh' or wire funds to the exchanges if they haven't accumulated enough yet.

Weak hands are in it for short term profit, strong hands believe in bitcoin.

It's not dog eat dog, it's bull gore pig.
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