Thank you for the information (from your data extrapolation) and the given data pages. As you are familiar with it, would mind give me headers of columns that are separated by commas, please. I don't know which column is for which variable/ parameter -- this info is necessary to run analyses, then I'll look at and play with it when I have time. I have all that data in json format in the domain, which I prefer. I can help you access it if you need.
I don't need json file as I am not a coder.  |
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I visited your website, here is what I feel: - It looks very well-built (graphics).
- You said you have many past clients but I can not click on client's icons to visit their websites. I think you should include hyperlinks with those icons as a search on Google or other search engines can direct to phishing sites.
In case if you need someone else to join your team, with demand for market, growth statistical analyses, please take a look at my thread. |
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I made a big update!
You are a very hard-working guy, bitmover. Following tranthidung suggestion, I made an horizontal bar charts for miners:
Thanks. However, the important thing is at the end, how do you feel about pie chart, bar chart and especially the difference between horizontal versus vertical bar charts? I will spend time to look at your updates and will focus on the last one, for Segwit.
i had a little chat with a friend who is statistician and he said barcharts are the way to go (just like the article I shared earlier)
Vertical / Horizontal depends on the amount of data you have.
Personally, I will just keep pie charts if I have less than 5 values to compare. Otherwise, bar charts.
I think horizontal ones are more beautiful. But I like vertical ones as well.
That's helpfulness and beauty of bar charts. |
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These charts are different visual representations for changes of Total locked value (in USD) -- TLV, between 2 consecutive days, for specific DeFi platform. - Positive: Changes between 2 consecutive days are >= 0 figures
- Negative: Changes between 2 consecutive days are negative figures
- This style can help people who are not familiar with box plots (median, interquartile range, whiskers, etc.)
- Interesting finding & confirmation: The weak-down of Uniswap and the spike (positive) of Sushiswap happen within almost same period
- These charts also show Maker is one of most stable DeFi platforms, not the most as there is one significant positive spike to almost +20%. The 2 more stable DeFi platforms are Aave and Compound
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As we all know, (DeFi) is one of the aspects of liquidity that made bitcoin price jump from 15000 dollar to 30000 dollar easily and fast.
I don't catch your opinion. Bitcoin is not related to DeFi hype and DeFi tokens are created on ERC20 chain. They are parasiting on the Ethereum blockchain. Bitcoin is one of two biggest assets locked in DeFi, together with Ethereum according to [1]I think differently. The DeFi hype in August or September of 2020 is to help big men collect as much bitcoin as they can from DeFi tokens. From this perspective, I was not suprised to see bitcoin reached its all time high at almost $42,000. The all time high of bitcoin is lower than all time high of YFI at $43966 on Binance. Capital flow changes from DeFi to bitcoin and help bitcoin set up many new records. It is the big contributions from DeFi tokens to bitcoin price but nothing more. Do you think that this news has a good effect on Bitcoin in general and the price in particular?
It is helpful in terms of creating another wave of over-optimistic and catching new flows of capital from newbies. 
[1] https://defipulse.com/ |
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About the statement that 1 BTC = 1 BTC - It is constantly right over the whole lifespan of bitcoin.
- Only price of bitcoin in fiat changes over time. The changes can come from one of two sides or both of them: price of bitcoin increases or bailout of government-backed fiats that change over time and different by fiat to fiat.
- The fact so far is: people change from use bitcoin for their bitcoin transactions to smaller units of bitcoin such as satoshi.
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The UI looks good but honestly I think the new forum software should give two options for UI at least or can be expanded to three options (with the last one) - Classic: familiar with and would love to use.
- Modern: can be fancy and is more favorite by younger generations.
- Customize: or people who want to play with it. Like what Windows give their users.
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- This thread is planned to update monthly
- I will expand it to rest DeFi platforms (beyond top 10)
- It is purely statistics but from these you can get a picture, then connects it with Bitcoin price as well as the developments, promotions, drama of each platform
Top 10 DeFi platforms, in terms of total value locked in USD with the snapshot on 12 Jan 2021 are: Notes
Time series plotsIn this part, I split them into 2 categories: top 1-5 and top 6-10. Reason: Combine all ten tokens in 1 chart makes it bad visually. From 2 plots, you can see: - During around 3 months, Uniswap, Sushiswap and Curve Finance are the most volatile DeFi platforms.
- Uniswap that has a big drop in middle of November 2020. Within almost the same period, capital switched to Sushiswap that is reflected by a take-off of total value locked in Sushiswap. The platform after that has maintained its upward trend but it is still far from Uniswap.
- Curve Finance has almost same hiccup as of Uniswap and same pattern of rally.
- The rest 7 platforms don't have much volatile changes
Box plotsIn this part, I draw 2 plots with 2 different time frames: - Time windows
- Whole: 14 Oct 2020 to 12 Jan 2021
- Censored: 01 Dec 2020 to 12 Jan 2021
- The first box plot shows bigger boxes (widths of boxes), especially boxes for Uniswap, Sushiswap, and Curve Finance. It is logical as the aforementioned explanations. 3 platforms have some big changes in the whole period.
- The second box plot show narrower boxes for 3 platforms as they present for a period that don't include those big volatile changes. This plot reflect absolutely right the positions of top 10 platforms on DefiPulse.com
- Maker is the biggest and one of most stable platforms (see the Dark-orange box -- it is narrow) and compares it with time series plot above). Moreover, Maker stays very stably above others in interquartile range (the box), median (the vertical line inside box) and the range from lower to upper whiskers. It is right for whole or censored time window.
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If the company feels fine with the payment rate, why do we have to care about that? - It can be a lie but bitcoiners say I am believe in bitcoin and 1 BTC is 1 BTC, I don't fear if bitcoin falls to a few cents. If you consider it is a trusted statement, they are caring about how many bitcoin/ satoshi they will receive for their works
- How many people will dump their bad judgement to bitcoiners if price falls to a few cent? If you support bitcoin today, you deserve it as you take all risks of any bad-judgement on you.
- It is not make sense to compare the salaries between bitcoiners (top-notch) and non-bitcoiners. Expanding the picture beyond cryptocurrency, it is non-sense to compare salaries in developed and developing nations. People are all survived with their received salaries.
- Me as an observer and applicant of the campaign, I can not deny I want to be in and have never stopped dreaming and trying for my future.
- To recap, I think it would be much derails already. If there is discussion, it should be among the company, manager, and participants, not for observers or ex-/ future- applicants
- If you want to earn a same income rate, let's get started to be a bitcoiner (if you've not yet), read, learn, and work hard. Some day, you can be one of them. Is it easy for top-notch bitcoiner to write a short but comprehensive post? It takes them months or years to turn challenging task to easy one (in aspect of knowledge) and decent times to compile their own documents. They deserve it
Cheers to all guys in Chip Mixer gang, you all deserve that.  |
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You can find one for you from Screenshots [1] [2]
Binance P2P is expanding their zero-fee promotion up to 31 June 2021. Their announcement |
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Bump to let you know that I updated the Part 2 in OP a few minutes ago. Enjoy your reading time!
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Hi fil., I invite you to read a newest thread of mine on Grayscale: GDLC real-time observation with Trade block DLCX index. I don't know whether Trade Block allows to download raw data for their table as I have not yet tried to do so. I don't want to create an account on Trade Block and Sign in. My AV shows warning when I visit the website but it could be a false positive warning. |
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Grayscale is a big guy in crypto and they are the one who triggered the wave of institutional investment in 2020. Some people also call this wave as institutional bubble. Ignore what they want to seed or imply with such news. I will introduce you to a website that allows you to observe the real-time, chronological changes of Grayscale investments (via compositions and performance of their GDLC index). Here is the introduction on the FAQ page [1] of Grayscale: *TradeBlock also publishes the TradeBlock DLCX Index, which allows investors and other market participants to obtain enhanced real-time transparency into the composition and performance of GDLC. While GDLC’s portfolio construction methodology was developed and is managed by Grayscale, an intra-day index price is calculated, verified, and published in real-time by TradeBlock, an independent pricing source. For more information, please visit: https://tradeblock.com/markets/dlcx. What is GDLC? - It is the abbreviation for: Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund LLC
- Definition: "Grayscale’s diversified Product, Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund, provides exposure to the top liquid digital assets by market capitalization and currently holds BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, and BCH." I took it from top of the FAQ page. [1]
[1] https://grayscale.co/faq/Where to get data or chart for GDLC? - GDLC index on OTCmarkets.com (You can get data, chart and are allowed to download data tables)
- Tradeblock.com (this website gives you more details on compositions of GDLC and their changes. Customize the chart with 1h, 2h, 6h, 1d, 1w time-frame)
Ripple is disappeared on the table data after the lawsuit from SEC.
Coindesk purchased Trade block recently: CoinDesk Acquires TradeBlock, Adding Indexes and Pricing to News, Events Offerings |
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No, the main reason is that Bitcoin price became overbought.
News are released at right time to resolve the overbought phenomenon. |
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I've been getting a bunch of error 403 when opening the pages in a new tab. I've tried clearing cache and it still persists. Is it a forum-wide issue or is it just me?
403s error, do you mean this? It comes from today technical fix from theymos. It's annoying that browsers are doing this prefetching without any way for sites to signal that they shouldn't, but it's even more annoying that each browser has a separate way of indicating it via headers, and it's all very poorly-documented. In the case of Opera and apparently some versions of Safari, it seems that a prefetching request can be identified if it has a Sec-Fetch-Dest header but does not have a Sec-Fetch-User header. Bitcointalk.org blocks such requests now. (If anyone starts seeing random 403s, this may be the cause; let me know right away in that case.)
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Bitcoin used to be called as a virtual currency and as the definition of 'virtual', it restricts the access to bitcoin. People don't want to buy a virtual thing, they want something is real, touchable, etc. Governments like the word virtual due to its helpfulness to fear people.
Bitcoin has its intrinsic value that is only defined by the cost to mine it. Personally, I consider bitcoin's intrinsic value is made up of 2 parts: mining cost, and belief cost. Belief cost is regarding to belief that governmental financial economies will be collapsed soon or later. It also relates to the belief to the fixed total supply, deflationary circulating supply curve.
As insurance policy, it is different. Bitcoin is volatile and you can not use it as an insurance if the unit for trading (or other activities) is not bitcoin. Fortunately, for companies that use bitcoin as a standard currency for their operational cost, service cost on customers, staff salary, etc. Bitcoin can merely be used as an insurance asset.
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Many indicators are found to support bitcoin. And if it is true, we can even have an even higher all-time high which around $50000 or something. Bitcoin is unstoppable now
Personally, I think this trend is just the beginning. There will be a lot of change in 2021 or I would like to say in this decade.
The today crash is a finish of the Elliot wave for this round of bitcoin bull run. After the correction that might last a bit long, a new bull run will be started and it will be a big one. I see the price from $60,000 to $100,000 is possible if consider the all time high is a middle of a parabolic arc. According to this tweet, Mayer Multipler bands, or Stock-to-Flow modelHigher price, I don't know but of course I wish it happens. There is scenario for a spike to $48,000 or above and then pull back, as this model shows. I don't bet on it and I am not obsessed with models. Another user has own opinion and visual chart for 2021 Elliot waveNew inventions are able to change our life as well as free us from the centralized system.
Don't trust much on promises on any innovation from crypto companies. Promises will be evaporated with bearish market. |
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I don't mean to nitpick and I realize English is probably not your native language but the word "retailer" means a merchant or retail seller.
The word you want in this context is "consumer" which means a user or customer.
A retailer sells to a consumer.
@Jimbo. I thank you a lot for the explanation and frankly you are right that English is not my native language. However, I know the meaning of retailer that is an opposite of whole-saler and I was confused first time I read news ( example) about it in crypto. So, from my interpretation, it seems to be distorted (it is not strange) and used to imply about small components on the market (which can be buyers or sellers at different times). News companies use that word as an opposite of whales. Then, I accept such meaning and use it this way. Is it correct?
I doubt any of them will actually pull the trigger now that the market is crashing, but anyone who does and gets in near $25K or $27K is going to be very happy down the road.
Such people probably never join the bitcoin market. They only want and regret. I have my friend that considered to join the market for 2 years (2019 to 2020). I am busy and sometimes I could not arrange to meet him and give him a quick guide into bitcoin market. I told him to prepare prerequisite things and I will meet him days or weeks later. Things have never been done. Then, when bitcoin rose to $41,000, he regretted.
This google trend also one of my basis if the FOMO begin from retailers just like what happened last 2017-2018 when we saw a massive run for Bitcoin.
This time is really different from the lastime since even the google trend does not yet reach the its previous all-time-high, price of Bitcoin already doubled, so I conclude that Bitcoin still got more room on upside price actions.
As being said, the power can be bigger but for now, bitcoin has been pulled back at the middle of the parabola. Somewhat, the naive estimation (in OP) is almost correct, just for now. As being said, I expect bigger effects from both institutes and retailers. Game is set but beware of hiccups along the adventure in 2021.
The estimate in OP is 'naive' estimate, with many assumption from past data. It is impossible to calculate or estimate power of new investor sources.
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Today I noticed that one of the Indonesian Local users was removed from the Signature Chipmixer @joniboini. I am wondering if this is an option to reduce the campaign costs paid weekly for all participant during the bitcoin price increase ? If this is the option taken, there will be many more participant to be expelled in the future. Hope my guess is wrong.
Re-structure is on-going, maybe (changes to make exposure to other boards or find other participants in the same board). One or two participants were removed does not mean the company is trying to reduce weekly payment budget for the campaign. I think the company know what they are doing (total budget, payment rate, total participant, etc.) |
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It'll allow you to select from 1 up to 50x leverage
Generally, trades with leverages x50 or x100 is almost suicide, IMO. Such the trade and leverages are created to enrich exchanges and whales. Retailed traders are liquidated by such trades. Some days after getting many losses from such trades, they will realize that fact and it would be too late and with a deep regret to look back on how many bitcoin they were lost Many margin traders don't understand the liquidation price calculation and they open leverage trading positions very arbitrarily, then wait for luck and don't have enough skills to manage risks. Back to risk management, it would be wisely not to open such trades at beginning. It will be more painful if they look at the price of bitcoin. |
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