I doubt it. Probably get a little spike from people trying to front run, then they'll sell off slowly as they realize nothing really happened. It might get around .0035 for a while, but it was pretty much headed to .003 when all this happened anyway.
The devs aren't any different than they were a few days ago. Unless you have some new devs I haven't heard about?
There are a host of new people, in MEW and outside, who are contributing to XMR development now. This development boost will definitely not end when this attack threat is over. I am very grateful to this work, mostly donated by members of community that believe standing up to outside threat is not only somebody's duty but that of their own. In decentralized development there are no somebodies. Everyone can contribute and the number of volunteering requests sent has been much more than what we have been able to centrally organize. Therefore people have developed this kind of initiatives (I will add link soon) all by themselves. As for the market, it may do whatever. I have probably been following it more closely than you, and it seemed to me that it was just about to explode to the upside after making a triple bottom in 370, or especially after the capitulation in 340. When it was resolved to go up, came the "trollbox ultimatum" with known consequences to the price. After combining many trend models, the price should imo be in the 360-400 range now with a strong upward trend. Judging from the fundamentals, much higher. Congratulations for nomination to be a Boolberry executive!  I have also become an executive in MEW. It is important for the lurkers to know where we stand and why I suddenly care to answer to your messages that I have previously ignored due to our personal issues. Please tell me, which of the Boolberry threads needs my introduction and predictions of the BBR price trends? I am happy to make a counter-visit |
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My current understanding of the recent events
Prices are in daily GMT "average(high-low)" format, BTC in USD and XMR in ksat.2014-9-17
BTC 454(466-444), XMR 387(420-361) - Bitcoin price started falling and alts fell in sympathy. - Initial reaction to BCX/Moneroman88 troll debate, despite BCX's attempt to "conclude it". (the "debate" was that a certain troll not in any way related to Monero developers or community, had provoked BCX in private message to claim he has an exploit to Cryptonote code and that he will drive the shitcoin to the ground) 2014-9-18
BTC 429(453-408), XMR 361(389-340) - Bitcoin further falls, so does XMR in a day full of 10k+ dumps. Aminorex calculates that the XMR fall is not attributed to a special "BCX scare" but is just a result of Bitcoin falling, which alts tend to magnify. 2014-9-19
BTC 400(429-379), XMR 366(390-351) - Bitcoin capitulation. XMR does not make further lows, threats towards attacking the blockchain with the CN exploit seem to abate. 2014-9-20
BTC 414(431-390), XMR 325(380-281) - BCX suddenly announces that he will attack XMR in 72 hours unless the exploit is found and fixed in that amount of time. - A taskforce consisting of (in no particular order) AnonyMint, jl777, crypto_zoidberg, me, and some Monero developers, is formed to tackle the challenge catered to us. - Price tanks. 2014-9-21 so far
BTC 404(414-395), XMR 318(345-286) - Quiet. Developers are working to find possible attack vectors. The market thinks that the lethal attack materializes in 17% probability currently (calculating 300/360, the current price divided by the baseline). The volume-weighted average price in each the 3 days after the attack, including today, has been 316. Simply put, the market has not made any adjustment in the perception of the value of XMR during the time. From speculation standpoint, everyone who gets suckered to the pumps or panics in the dumps, plays inoptimally. The one who supports the price below 316 and provides coins for sale above it, plays optimally. However, there is the danger that the price will go flash crash and then to terminal decline. If you believe this is the case with high enough probability, you should aim to sell, and you cannot ask for 316 if you want volume. 310 average might be possible for small lots and higher slippage for higher ones. If the attack does not materialize or comes out weaker than expected, the price may also be ready for a rally. Loading up now at the bottom is a good idea, and you should expect to be able to buy at about 322. |
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MEW - Monero Economy Workgroup communication
This has been a busy day. The taskforce of crypto_zoidberg, AnonyMint, jl777 and some Monero developers and MEW members has diligently worked on the code and is implementing fixes to possible exploits that might give the attacker the upper hand. The code is evaluated so that we can say with certainty that no coinkiller exploit can be used against us, and this makes me thankful for the original coders of CryptoNote. It is too often forgotten that without this unique technology there would be no Monero that has taken the torch, determined to carry it beyond the current limits of cryptoworld.
Although I cannot personally evaluate all the work that has been done, I would like to thank everybody who have been working on the issue. There are many unique contributions that together make sure that we are able to withstand the attack. I feel that the situation is similar to the attack that we had to thwart only two weeks ago, as we now again stand united.
The MEW will be officially inaugurated tomorrow with 18 members. We will open the membership as soon as possible for everyone who is interested in contributing to Monero's success. The minimum membership fee will be set to 10 XMR to ensure that everybody has an opportunity to join. Our organization is minimal because the activities will be carried out by members themselves, in groups of their choosing. David Latapie serves as Members Executive, I have been selected to be the Operational Executive, and NewLiberty will be our Judge. For practical matters, you will have to contact David, and he will tell when we are ready to take new members.
The attack has served in tightening our ranks and we are now in front of several fundamental decisions. These will be discussed and voted upon by the community in MEW. In a way I even feel grateful that this opportunity to make things straight has fallen upon us. We now have more confidence on the code, and on the developers. The community is unified and I have been inundated with PM's offering help and support. From the quantity of troll posts one would believe that there is some general animosity towards Monero, but the PM's alone speak volumes about the support.
In the end, a coin's value is upheld by people who trust it and decide to own it. The people who do not trust it and do now own it, also do not have a say concerning the value. Monero will be developed for its users, not for the ones who do not use it. I believe the strengthening of the code and the community is very positive for Monero's future.
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I disagree with the self moderated thread. Several other coins are specifically NOT open to negative discussions and become a blind group circlejerk.
While I have no fear of that happening to XMR (at least to the extent I've seen in other places) I feel leaving the main chat thread unmoderated speaks volumes about it's legitimacy.
In online forums, there are little ways to differentiate legitimate speaking from malicious. Established members recognize each other (reputation) but occasional lurkers do not have this guide. It is easy to affect the quality of discussion, and even the perception of community opinion, by cheap methods that are difficult to thwart. This is why they are so commonly used. There is, for example, no realistic reason for any actual cryptoperson to hate let's say Monero. Yet by reading the forums, there is a perception that there is a large anti-Monero crowd there. In actuality there is not. The number of Monero users is over 10,000 and they are happy with their using. A small number of accounts is spreading their negative view. This could be mitigated by making the posting costly, by instituting a minimum reputation threshold, by making a per-post fee, by making it needed to show that the poster actually has Moneros if he is going to talk about it, etc. These measures have not been implemented. The only way to deal with trolls is deleting their posts, which angers them, or ignoring them, which leaves the main problem - affecting the perception of the lurkers - uncured. We in the Monero community have not yet reached the consensus on how to tackle this angle of attack. Some members have hinted that dedicated forums are coming. This is definitely a good development. The "insiders" of the coin need discussion channels where there is no interference. Yet, the importance of Bitcoin Forum > Other > Alternate cryptocurrencies is really big and there are no plans to leave it. There has been talk about Monero having more than its fair share of threads and activity in this forum. Now that is complete bullshit. The Alternate cryptocurrencies main (without even the [ANN] and others) has 31,440 threads total, of which the 20 or so Monero threads that are started by Monero supporters are hardly an excessive percentage. That many of the Monero threads are in the first page, speaks about the vitality of the community. Monero is a new coin, and ranks about TOP-5 in $ value of emission per day and trade volume. Also it is very easy to not see Monero-related stuff - just not click those threads! We believe this multi-pronged attack has gone a little too far now, and there might be retaliation coming. |
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Where are the leaderboard and orange numbers? I'm getting impatient!
Monero is being attacked! As usual, the files will be published after the 3rd day of the month. |
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Brilliant! Now the hashpower is in need, because that helps against one of the possible attacks that may be planned against us!
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So why aren't they presently taking those actions?
It is probably not allowed to them. There are things you cannot do if you are poor. Then there are things you cannot do if you are a billionaire. Both groups intuitively know them. The things are very different. |
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Nice to see that the fundamentals are upheld. I have devoted a little too much time to Monero lately. It is small, and it is easier to make your voice heard even in a global scale. Perhaps you could propose me what I could do for Bitcoin, I have been feeling unemployed. Even my castle is far away for visitors who are suddenly poor because of bitcoin's price falling... Luckily this week we have a conference! |
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Sell Buyback Contract full name Maturity Type Strike B.E Lev Imp vol Open interest
0,00005 0,00002 140930-CALL-0.0200 30.9.2014 CALL 0,02000 0,02004 8196 % 550 %
0,00006 0,00003 140930-CALL-0.0150 30.9.2014 CALL 0,01500 0,01505 6751 % 500 %
0,00009 0,00005 140930-CALL-0.0100 30.9.2014 CALL 0,01000 0,01007 4638 % 430 %
0,00011 0,00006 140930-CALL-0.0080 30.9.2014 CALL 0,00800 0,00809 3614 % 390 %
0,00018 0,00011 140930-CALL-0.0060 30.9.2014 CALL 0,00600 0,00615 2166 % 350 %
0,00027 0,00017 140930-CALL-0.0050 30.9.2014 CALL 0,00500 0,00522 1462 % 330 % 8000
0,00046 0,00031 140930-CALL-0.0040 30.9.2014 CALL 0,00400 0,00438 838 % 320 %
0,00086 0,00061 140930-CALL-0.0030 30.9.2014 CALL 0,00300 0,00374 433 % 330 %
0,00225 0,00169 140930-PUT-0.0050 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00500 0,00303 162 % 300 %
0,00177 0,00131 140930-PUT-0.0045 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00450 0,00296 208 % 300 %
0,00136 0,00100 140930-PUT-0.0040 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00400 0,00282 271 % 320 %
0,00101 0,00072 140930-PUT-0.0035 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00350 0,00264 370 % 340 %
0,00067 0,00046 140930-PUT-0.0030 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00300 0,00243 565 % 345 %
0,00041 0,00027 140930-PUT-0.0025 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00250 0,00216 936 % 360 %
0,00012 0,00007 141031-CALL-0.0200 31.10.2014 CALL 0,02000 0,02009 3478 % 300 %
0,00017 0,00010 141031-CALL-0.0150 31.10.2014 CALL 0,01500 0,01514 2303 % 290 %
0,00028 0,00018 141031-CALL-0.0100 31.10.2014 CALL 0,01000 0,01023 1411 % 270 % 5000
0,00036 0,00024 141031-CALL-0.0080 31.10.2014 CALL 0,00800 0,00830 1060 % 260 %
0,00053 0,00036 141031-CALL-0.0060 31.10.2014 CALL 0,00600 0,00645 719 % 250 %
0,00065 0,00045 141031-CALL-0.0050 31.10.2014 CALL 0,00500 0,00555 585 % 240 %
0,00088 0,00063 141031-CALL-0.0040 31.10.2014 CALL 0,00400 0,00475 425 % 240 %
0,00127 0,00093 141031-CALL-0.0030 31.10.2014 CALL 0,00300 0,00410 291 % 250 %
0,00244 0,00185 141031-PUT-0.0050 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00500 0,00286 149 % 190 %
0,00198 0,00148 141031-PUT-0.0045 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00450 0,00277 185 % 190 %
0,00164 0,00121 141031-PUT-0.0040 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00400 0,00257 224 % 210 %
0,00133 0,00097 141031-PUT-0.0035 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00350 0,00235 278 % 230 %
0,00098 0,00070 141031-PUT-0.0030 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00300 0,00216 380 % 235 %
0,00071 0,00050 141031-PUT-0.0025 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00250 0,00190 531 % 250 %
0,00023 0,00014 141130-CALL-0.0200 30.11.2014 CALL 0,02000 0,02018 1742 % 260 %
0,00030 0,00019 141130-CALL-0.0150 30.11.2014 CALL 0,01500 0,01524 1311 % 250 %
0,00046 0,00031 141130-CALL-0.0100 30.11.2014 CALL 0,01000 0,01038 831 % 240 %
0,00055 0,00038 141130-CALL-0.0080 30.11.2014 CALL 0,00800 0,00847 688 % 230 %
0,00075 0,00053 141130-CALL-0.0060 30.11.2014 CALL 0,00600 0,00664 500 % 225 %
0,00089 0,00063 141130-CALL-0.0050 30.11.2014 CALL 0,00500 0,00576 420 % 220 %
0,00112 0,00081 141130-CALL-0.0040 30.11.2014 CALL 0,00400 0,00496 332 % 220 %
0,00149 0,00110 141130-CALL-0.0030 30.11.2014 CALL 0,00300 0,00430 247 % 230 %
0,00266 0,00202 141130-PUT-0.0050 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00500 0,00266 137 % 180 %
0,00220 0,00166 141130-PUT-0.0045 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00450 0,00257 166 % 180 %
0,00190 0,00142 141130-PUT-0.0040 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00400 0,00234 193 % 200 %
0,00160 0,00119 141130-PUT-0.0035 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00350 0,00211 229 % 220 %
0,00124 0,00090 141130-PUT-0.0030 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00300 0,00193 298 % 225 %
0,00096 0,00068 141130-PUT-0.0025 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00250 0,00168 390 % 240 %
Subject to fluctuations. When you want to trade, have your money and mobile phone at hand and shoot me a PM. |
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MEW - Monero Economy Workgroup communication
A taskforce is set up to address the issue of a possible "BCX exploit", and an ultimatum by BCX to find and fix it in 72 hours lest a serious attack is launched upon Monero.
The taskforce consists of several Monero developers, AnonyMint, CZ, jl777 and me.
There are differing opinions in the taskforce concerning the severity of the threat. No coinkiller is yet found and several avenues are probed. The members who have technical competence are talking about their views themselves.
Regardless of the outcome in the technical side, this is a serious economic attack on Monero - about 15% of the pre-ultimatum value is lost, and there is a great information asymmetry plaguing traders currently. It is notable that nobody has offered to borrow XMR for shorting (which I could provide against full guarantee deposit of BTC). Neither has anyone bought the PUT options. This means that the downside speculation has so far been limited to selling out from a trader's own stash. An economically motivated player who knows for sure about a lethal attack might decide to take leverage for personal gain.
I believe that the Monero devs are up to their task and can mitigate the potential exploit, and fix the code in preparation of the announced attack. I further believe that Monero will rise even stronger. Since I am not in possession of any knowledge that indicates that a realistic attack could take place, I can only estimate the probability that it exists unnoticed, and my estimate is 4-8%.
The MEW will be inaugurated on Tuesday, and also the devteam has important announcements (not related to the attack). Provided that our coin still exists, I am sure we have a great future ahead of us as a community with these new methods of organizing our activities for the mutual benefit.
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What do you personally think are the chances of a coin killer attack? And second, did you sell a percentage of your stash?
I am quite an insider in the situation, since I belong to the remedy team, and have communicated with all the main actors. I cannot evaluate the tech, but I know the turns of the events. I currently give a 92-96% chance that Cryptonote will live to see the next month As a result, I believe that currently the market is too bearish. |
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Every panic seller needs to remember how the team managed the last two attacks.
When the next months will go well, I think one can be very sure (as far is this is possible) about the technical reliability of this coin. I'm confident.
Price will go up and down...
Before the threat to attack the coin, the price was relatively calm (48 hours in 340-390, average 364). When the threat came, the price tanked to 281, which was a 22% fall in a few minutes. For those who don't remember the Bitcoin weekly 20-30% flashcrashes in for example March 2013, that may seem like dramatic, in fact it is not. But it is something that has not happened with Monero in the recent history, if ever. If you take 360 or 364 as the baseline price from which to calculate the attack odds, the current market evaluation can be read from the following table: price kill%
360 0 %
342 5 %
324 10 %
306 15 %
288 20 %
270 25 %
252 30 %
etc ...
If you check the price, and conclude the market has priced the risk wrongly, you should take action. Another approach is to try to swingtrade, but this leaves you holding the bag if the coinkiller attack materializes. Just selling, without doing the math, is good if and only if you absolutely cannot take any risk that it dies. Because if it does, you can buy back at a loss. (There will be others wanting to buy back also in that situation.) Just buying because it is cheap, without doing the math, is good if and only if you are prepared to lose 100% of the investment in less than 3 days, no matter how low the risk of this actually happening is perceived to be. Happy trading! Also my options are operational, with skyhigh implied volatility of course. |
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My current understanding of the recent events
Prices are in daily GMT "average(high-low)" format, BTC in USD and XMR in ksat.2014-9-17
BTC 454(466-444), XMR 387(420-361) - Bitcoin price started falling and alts fell in sympathy. - Initial reaction to BCX/Moneroman88 troll debate, despite BCX's attempt to "conclude it". (the "debate" was that a certain troll not in any way related to Monero developers or community, had provoked BCX in private message to claim he has an exploit to Cryptonote code and that he will drive the shitcoin to the ground) 2014-9-18
BTC 429(453-408), XMR 361(389-340) - Bitcoin further falls, so does XMR in a day full of 10k+ dumps. Aminorex calculates that the XMR fall is not attributed to a special "BCX scare" but is just a result of Bitcoin falling, which alts tend to magnify. 2014-9-19
BTC 400(429-379), XMR 366(390-351) - Bitcoin capitulation. XMR does not make further lows, threats towards attacking the blockchain with the CN exploit seem to abate. 2014-9-20
BTC 414(431-390), XMR 325(380-281) - BCX suddenly announces that he will attack XMR in 72 hours unless the exploit is found and fixed in that amount of time. - A taskforce consisting of (in no particular order) AnonyMint, jl777, crypto_zoidberg, me, and some Monero developers, is formed to tackle the challenge catered to us. - Price tanks. 2014-9-21 so far
BTC 404(414-395), XMR 318(345-286) - Quiet. Developers are working to find possible attack vectors. The market thinks that the lethal attack materializes in 17% probability currently (calculating 300/360, the current price divided by the baseline).
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But yes, smaller is better, so perhaps we'll have pre-announced gatherings during the winter every 4 weeks or so. That is about the frequency I myself can visit the place and then stay about a week.
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David is moving over and will take care of the house, so we may be moving to the perpetual gathering model now. Previously it was announced that this will be renovated to be a 5-star hotel. Well due to the following factors: - My capital is more expensive cause Bitcoin is seriously down and I promised not to sell below $3,000; - The primary target group (people owning so many Bitcoin that they are self-sufficient due to that alone) has shrunk so small due to rate decline; - More Monero people, who are generally middle-class, getting interested in this but not of the fancy rooms, the hotel plans have been downgraded to a more approachable level. For now  (I really need that cigar-smoking emoticon, where can it be found...?) |
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I left that out of the speculation, since a hit would have been quite easy in the headlights from 20 meters.
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Nobody is reply to my PMs to confirm they will pay out the bounties offered.
Perhaps they are stalling because try to figure it out themselves so they don't have to pay me anything. Sheesh. You think they wouldn't be such cheapskates and reward a person for trying to help out.
rpietila has replied now.
I want this wrapped up asap. I have other more important work to do.
The Monero side replied to you in 28 minutes from your sending a PM. Not bad for a decentralized team of 7 devs + me |
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According to the OP, this is the official thread for enjoying wine and cigars. I recently came to Malla after a longish break. While I was quietly minding my own business with some reasonable quality wine (Dow's 20yo Tawny Port) and some really nice vintage cigars, including, but not limited to Bossner Baron 2000, Davidoff Eminentes, and Diamond Crown 2004, I decided to go out since it had already become dark.
The day had been really quiet of cars, so a sight of a large pick-up coming, immediately caught my attention, especially as it turned from the road to my yard. When walking towards it, it did not stop to greet me, rather passed, went to turn around in the other side of the yard, and passed me again while I just walked towards it and stared at it in my friendly way.
A similar incident, my staff told me, had already happened this week with a car with no licence plates.
I should have no enemies in Estonia, and I am not doing any business here really that would interfere with somebody else's business without me even knowing. So what comes to the incidents, I have to deduce that either it is some larger agency conducting intelligence (very plausible, because several agencies are not doing their job unless they have a plan for raiding this place, just in case) or common thieves conducting intelligence in a similar way, but for somewhat different ends.
The conference is starting Tuesday, so we have had some preliminary action. Hopefully this was it, but you never know.
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Sorry, but this makes no sense. 5% of today's hashrate could 51% attack the coin.
Seriously, all these discussions lately about changing fundamental stuff just because people are not happy with the price are tiring.
Changing the fundamentals of a coin because you want an immediate increase in price is wrong. Given the stability of XMR despite the fact that it is everything but user friendly for the average Joe, and all the attacks, I'd say the fundamentals in terms of emissions are about perfect.
AMEN You know what would be an interesting experiment. Actually trying it. Because my theory is that a change like this would make the price go down, exactly the opposite of what people usually proposing such changes intend. No, I'm not seriously suggesting this for XMR, but I would love to see the experiment happen. No you don't want to try it, I have seen this experiment happen before, it was after Dogecoin decided not to fix the emission limit, I remember some whales talked to the devs to reconsider at no avail, the result you see today, a dying coin with no hopes, with a community getting its fix of small good news and micro pumps once in a while. A coin need whale and investors. I personally think inflation is an extremely important thing, that's not yet taken seriously. A defaltionary currency encourages holding (fixed supply, naturally increasing demand=rising price) and not spending, thus the holders hold on to it, until they spent it, which drives the cycle down and the currency will loose more and more rapidly value until it starts again to rise and the cycle of death continues, which no economy can sustain. Just look over at Japan and you can clearly see how much it has failed. While inflation may discourage holders and investors in the early days and drive down the price short teram, it is extremely important "to redistribute the wealth from the holders to the spenders" (Anonymint somewhere in this thread) to allow an exononmy to work properly. The only reason this is working out currently with Bitcoin is that it will take years until it is deflationary and so far it's inflation has worked out to great effect(?) Perhaps some of what you say may be true in certain cases, but with regards to Bitcoin I think it's fairly clear that the current rate of 10% yearly inflation is doing a fair amount of harm. There doesn't appear to be sufficient demand yet to sustain some of the higher prices that have been touched on by Bitcoin in the last year. If Bitcoin was fully mined, such as Quark, there would be nobody even remotely interested in buying it, and the price would be down even more, with no sign or prospect of recovery. |
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Their "tax" could not be achieved via inflation, because gold cannot be inflated.
I am not sure if your critique is addressing my actual points (called "strawman").
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