I'm worried because I saw just how closely price on all exchanges follows BTCchina, as if done algorithmically by bots, no matter what the order book looks like. If mtgox had a 20kBTC buy wall and BTCChina went down, then there would be a 20k sell.

We only recovered now because volume on BTCchina suddenly picked back up, I guess because some investors had to complete their ID verification. But this is not a good a reason for recovery. I would have preferred to see us recover WITHOUT China. Now we are still at the mercy of China. Say btcchina closes tomorrow , then it is back down the rabbit hole.

Its another mtgox.

This a bull trap...

The alts always become artificially supressed during immense unexpected btc volatility while people cash out of alts to play or sell btc.  Then when the volatility subsides, they recover, often in an exxagerated manner.

Nice pattern observation. I struggled with the exact same thing while I was I was expecting a second wave of capitulation.

Here is another pattern I struggled with on a slightly longer term scale:

First Night: btcchina is at a high of 7500CNY. It's previous high was 7000CNY so it might be breaking out and going to the moon. I'll hold btc.
Next Morning: btcchina has corrected to 5800CNY. I guess I was wrong and there needed to be a second correction.

Second Night: (three nights later): btcchina is at a high 7000CNY. It looks like after a double correction, there will be a breakout after seeing a huge support. I am going to hold btc.
Next Morning: btcchina has seen an epic crash to 4500CNY. There's no way I could have predicted bad news.

Third Night: btcchina is at a high of  6300CNY. That was a very nice recovery. It must have been news induced panic. The bubble cant possible pop  at this point in the chart anyway. After a third correction btc and showing immense suppport btc is going to emerge like a phoenix to break out to the next leg up. I am going to hold btc.
Next Morning: btcchina went down further to 3800CNY causing all markets to have a giant capitulation crash. This is horrible. At least I am able to trade my way out of the loss with the big waves (and I did).

Fourth Night (tonight): btcchina is at a high of 5450CNY. Suddenly volume has picked up and there has been an epic recovery. I wonder what this means? I'm not sure. Is it going to the moon now? Now which position should I go to sleep in?

So far every time I try to use april to predict things it has been wrong and costed me - starting with "a bubble cant pop here" and ending with "there must be a second capitulation wave here" so I am giving that up and only trading based on TA / EMAs now.

5 Reasons I'm not comfortable keeping my long right now:



1. previous resistance
2. Daily moving average possibly acting as resistance.
3. Downtrend line.
4. 4 hour moving averages.
5. Volume of rise much smaller than volume of drop.

Also.

MACD, PSAR

It appears China saved us from the "capitulation phase" happening immediately like in April. Now btcchina is suddenly up and running at full steam... I can't say I feel very comfortable about these conditions though.

Alright guys I just got off the phone with the bitcoin turbobull. He says the bear market is off and this is his TA for the coming weeks:

Yes it was surely breaking 1250 and having another leg up with with a solid correction behind it, before the news.  It is very interesting to see how bubble pop dynamics are precisely played out on the chart when the event was actually news driven. I would never have said we were in the "bubble phase" of the rally yet because there were healthy corrections.

I think we're now we're now working on the "arm of death" as the final bulltrap before capitulation.

Hey I think I found the bottom.

It is a strong downtrend on a 4 hour chart. The two bulltraps look identical. Right now is just like the one before the crash when gox was trading ~$1000. Once we are rejected from the 4 hour moving average, it should begin another high volume capitulation. This should be like the second capitulation drop in april that occured a few days after the crash.

Load the boat at 450-550.

I'm not sure if I can bring myself to buy big at this moment, but you guys go ahead...

You guys are ridiculous with with $100, $200, $300, and $350.  The flashcrash never goes below the weekly average and the point of the previous successful daily ema correction, which are now at $400 and $450 respectively.

I guess my TA about the MACD, PSAR etc was correct after all...

We have derailed from the chinese express bullet train and are back on the freight train.

$250 in April was a lot different because the price had moved up there very quickly with no corrections and no price history. We were at $265 with a daily EMA of $115 and a weekly EMA of $50. Now we are at $1050 with a daily EMA of $910 and a weekly EMA of $400.

The part where we 'flashcrash' back to EMAs is already over. Any drop now is a slow capitulation grind, with a lowest possible target of $400.

Discovering margin trading helped a lot too.  I don't even really have to sell or think about when to sell my core position. I just wait for any kind of a sharp drop and then as soon as high volume support starts kicking in I buy a huge margin position using my btc as collateral. Then as soon as the immediate bounce is over I close the position, take the ~15% profit, and buy more bitcoins to add to my core position. I might not be getting the most profit on the margin position possible but it covers my ass both in event of an uptrend or a downtrend. It's kind of a compromise between buy and hold, since I'm never actually selling any 'real' bitcoins.

I now have 50 times as many bitcoins as I did in April. No deposits. Yes I am up 25,000%.

It might not be due to TA though, but more about quick reactions and having a feeling about the flow the order books are moving in and when they're reversing.