A small history lesson

[Nemo1024]

Just to re-post my entry from the Wall thread:

It's as if this week-end didn't happen for my part. 

I got out at 880 and went all fiat.

Then, then after a few flush-crashes, I was ready to turn in for the night, and decided not to place a buy order at 550: probably the biggest mistake of this year.
Next morning: 650. Someone here write, that 650 is still a good price to get back in. Yeah, I still expect more down movement and place orders at 550-400
Next morning: 750. This time I small trade between 700 and 750, all the time expecting to flush-crash back down, and place staggered orders at 680-550.
Next morning: 850.

Does anyone see a pattern here? 

People learn from my mistakes. If you managed to sell before a crash and it looks like the price is already significantly below what you sold for, buy back in and sit tight, don't hunt for that illusive knife's edge.

I am now back in at 880, having made only a small fraction of a bitcoin on minor trades.

Every decision seemed rational and risk-minimising at the time. I don't get that same emotional roller-coaster feelings from trades any more, feeling rather calm.

Searching deep within myself, I've identified that as calm fear. Even though I only invested in Bitcoin what I really can afford to loose, the loss would still be felt, and that was affecting my decisions.

My next move will be to free myself from this fear. It has a price, and it's Bitcoin denominated. I am going to sell and withdraw some fiat, covering all my investment in Bitcoin purchases, purchases of the mining equipment, plus a small revenue on top of that. What's left, will be completely emotionally detached from the rest of my economy.

Hope this rambling helps somebody as well. It's been therapeutic for me.

[BitchicksHusband]

If you sold 10 BTC at $880, why wouldn't you just put in buy orders at:

20% of your fiat at 90% or $792 (or 2.22222 BTC)
20% of your fiat at 80% or $704 (or 2.50000 BTC)
20% of your fiat at 70% or $616 (or 2.85714 BTC)
20% of your fiat at 60% or $528 (this wouldn't have been hit)
20% of your fiat at 50% or $440 (this wouldn't have been hit)

Then, when you bought back in at $880, you would have had 1.6 extra bitcoins.  I don't do this, since I don't have time to play the market typically, but it doesn't seem difficult with even a fairly poor strategy and almost no attention to it to make 20% more bitcoins on a weekend dip like that.

[bitkoinz]

Just to re-post my entry from the Wall thread:

It's as if this week-end didn't happen for my part. 

I got out at 880 and went all fiat.

Then, then after a few flush-crashes, I was ready to turn in for the night, and decided not to place a buy order at 550: probably the biggest mistake of this year.
Next morning: 650. Someone here write, that 650 is still a good price to get back in. Yeah, I still expect more down movement and place orders at 550-400
Next morning: 750. This time I small trade between 700 and 750, all the time expecting to flush-crash back down, and place staggered orders at 680-550.
Next morning: 850.

Does anyone see a pattern here? 

People learn from my mistakes. If you managed to sell before a crash and it looks like the price is already significantly below what you sold for, buy back in and sit tight, don't hunt for that illusive knife's edge.

I am now back in at 880, having made only a small fraction of a bitcoin on minor trades.

Every decision seemed rational and risk-minimising at the time. I don't get that same emotional roller-coaster feelings from trades any more, feeling rather calm.

Searching deep within myself, I've identified that as calm fear. Even though I only invested in Bitcoin what I really can afford to loose, the loss would still be felt, and that was affecting my decisions.

My next move will be to free myself from this fear. It has a price, and it's Bitcoin denominated. I am going to sell and withdraw some fiat, covering all my investment in Bitcoin purchases, purchases of the mining equipment, plus a small revenue on top of that. What's left, will be completely emotionally detached from the rest of my economy.

Hope this rambling helps somebody as well. It's been therapeutic for me.

i have had a similar experience but im kind of noob to the whole forum thing and havent really had a chance to put it in words that people would understand.

[kwest]

Even though I only invested in Bitcoin what I really can afford to loose, the loss would still be felt, and that was affecting my decisions.

IMO this means you were still over invested, even if you could afford to lose it.

My next move will be to free myself from this fear. It has a price, and it's Bitcoin denominated. I am going to sell and withdraw some fiat, covering all my investment in Bitcoin purchases, purchases of the mining equipment, plus a small revenue on top of that. What's left, will be completely emotionally detached from the rest of my economy.

This is exactly what I did at $960 before this crash. That money is still on the exchange, but I'm not buying in with it again.. just waiting for today (Monday) to withdraw. I have to say it feels really good to have sold off my initial fiat investment and to be free-rolling now. No matter where it goes now, up or down, I've still made money, and I'm still on the Bitcoin train. I'm not over invested, and I'm not under invested. And best of all: I don't need to watch the prices. I can just sit on this long term.

Oh, and in the amount that I sold off I also included money for investing in other things. So I'm diversifying my portfolio.

[TERA]

I got out at 880 and went all fiat.

Then, then after a few flush-crashes, I was ready to turn in for the night, and decided not to place a buy order at 550: probably the biggest mistake of this year.
Next morning: 650. Someone here write, that 650 is still a good price to get back in. Yeah, I still expect more down movement and place orders at 550-400
Next morning: 750. This time I small trade between 700 and 750, all the time expecting to flush-crash back down, and place staggered orders at 680-550.
Next morning: 850.

Nice pattern observation. I struggled with the exact same thing while I was I was expecting a second wave of capitulation.

Here is another pattern I struggled with on a slightly longer term scale:

First Night: btcchina is at a high of 7500CNY. It's previous high was 7000CNY so it might be breaking out and going to the moon. I'll hold btc.
Next Morning: btcchina has corrected to 5800CNY. I guess I was wrong and there needed to be a second correction.

Second Night: (three nights later): btcchina is at a high 7000CNY. It looks like after a double correction, there will be a breakout after seeing a huge support. I am going to hold btc.
Next Morning: btcchina has seen an epic crash to 4500CNY. There's no way I could have predicted bad news.

Third Night: btcchina is at a high of  6300CNY. That was a very nice recovery. It must have been news induced panic. The bubble cant possible pop  at this point in the chart anyway. After a third correction btc and showing immense suppport btc is going to emerge like a phoenix to break out to the next leg up. I am going to hold btc.
Next Morning: btcchina went down further to 3800CNY causing all markets to have a giant capitulation crash. This is horrible. At least I am able to trade my way out of the loss with the big waves (and I did).

Fourth Night (tonight): btcchina is at a high of 5450CNY. Suddenly volume has picked up and there has been an epic recovery. I wonder what this means? I'm not sure. Is it going to the moon now? Now which position should I go to sleep in?

[BitchicksHusband]

Even though I only invested in Bitcoin what I really can afford to loose, the loss would still be felt, and that was affecting my decisions.

IMO this means you were still over invested, even if you could afford to lose it.

My next move will be to free myself from this fear. It has a price, and it's Bitcoin denominated. I am going to sell and withdraw some fiat, covering all my investment in Bitcoin purchases, purchases of the mining equipment, plus a small revenue on top of that. What's left, will be completely emotionally detached from the rest of my economy.

This is exactly what I did at $960 before this crash. That money is still on the exchange, but I'm not buying in with it again.. just waiting for today (Monday) to withdraw. I have to say it feels really good to have sold off my initial fiat investment and to be free-rolling now. No matter where it goes now, up or down, I've still made money, and I'm still on the Bitcoin train. I'm not over invested, and I'm not under invested. And best of all: I don't need to watch the prices. I can just sit on this long term.

Oh, and in the amount that I sold off I also included money for investing in other things. So I'm diversifying my portfolio.

Good for you.  Glad that somebody on this forum can explain how they succeeded in their goals positively without trying to make everyone else feel like they are an idiot.

[BitchicksHusband]

I got out at 880 and went all fiat.

Then, then after a few flush-crashes, I was ready to turn in for the night, and decided not to place a buy order at 550: probably the biggest mistake of this year.
Next morning: 650. Someone here write, that 650 is still a good price to get back in. Yeah, I still expect more down movement and place orders at 550-400
Next morning: 750. This time I small trade between 700 and 750, all the time expecting to flush-crash back down, and place staggered orders at 680-550.
Next morning: 850.

Nice pattern observation. I struggled with the exact same thing while I was I was expecting a second wave of capitulation.

Here is another pattern I struggled with on a slightly longer term scale:

First Night: btcchina is at a high of 7500CNY. It's previous high was 7000CNY so it might be breaking out and going to the moon. I'll hold btc.
Next Morning: btcchina has corrected to 5800CNY. I guess I was wrong and there needed to be a second correction.

Second Night: (three nights later): btcchina is at a high 7000CNY. It looks like after a double correction, there will be a breakout after seeing a huge support. I am going to hold btc.
Next Morning: btcchina has seen an epic crash to 4500CNY. There's no way I could have predicted bad news.

Third Night: btcchina is at a high of  6300CNY. That was a very nice recovery. It must have been news induced panic. The bubble cant possible pop  at this point in the chart anyway. After a third correction btc and showing immense suppport btc is going to emerge like a phoenix to break out to the next leg up. I am going to hold btc.
Next Morning: btcchina went down further to 3800CNY causing all markets to have a giant capitulation crash. This is horrible. At least I am able to trade my way out of the loss with the big waves (and I did).

Fourth Night (tonight): btcchina is at a high of 5450CNY. Suddenly volume has picked up and there has been an epic recovery. I wonder what this means? I'm not sure. Is it going to the moon now? Now which position should I go to sleep in?

Ask JayB.  He's got all the answers.  And he's 100% certain which was it's going to go and when you should get out of your trades.

[Nemo1024]

@BitchicksHusband: I was staggering my buy orders, once I saw how low it would go, the problem is, I was putting them around the same area, and that low was not revisited.

@kwest: I don't think I am over-invested, I have investments other places as well, but Bitcoin, though being the smallest of them, is the highest risk by far. And even a loss of a small amount would feel like a blow to self-esteem

After selling, I also plan to spend less time following the exchange - I want my life back.  

[Hfleer]

I missed the news and some of the price movement, but seems like we got back to $900 in a hurry.  I agree with the suggestion above about a gradual buy in.  The price you saw during the dip you could take and buy in a portion of your funds, and figure to buy more if it moves 15% higher or lower until a point where the market is moving in a way more easily predictable, or you have fully bought back in.

[GigaCoin]

Exactly, and if you are too nervous my suggestion is to split your investment so you buy 60% at $650 for example, if it goes down buy more if it goes up you dont feel so bad or just wait for the next major dip.

The thing is most ppl expected a repeat of previous bubble bursts which i guess didn't play out.

[sgbett]

I got out at 880 and went all fiat.

Then, then after a few flush-crashes, I was ready to turn in for the night, and decided not to place a buy order at 550: probably the biggest mistake of this year.
Next morning: 650. Someone here write, that 650 is still a good price to get back in. Yeah, I still expect more down movement and place orders at 550-400
Next morning: 750. This time I small trade between 700 and 750, all the time expecting to flush-crash back down, and place staggered orders at 680-550.
Next morning: 850.

Nice pattern observation. I struggled with the exact same thing while I was I was expecting a second wave of capitulation.

Here is another pattern I struggled with on a slightly longer term scale:

First Night: btcchina is at a high of 7500CNY. It's previous high was 7000CNY so it might be breaking out and going to the moon. I'll hold btc.
Next Morning: btcchina has corrected to 5800CNY. I guess I was wrong and there needed to be a second correction.

Second Night: (three nights later): btcchina is at a high 7000CNY. It looks like after a double correction, there will be a breakout after seeing a huge support. I am going to hold btc.
Next Morning: btcchina has seen an epic crash to 4500CNY. There's no way I could have predicted bad news.

Third Night: btcchina is at a high of  6300CNY. That was a very nice recovery. It must have been news induced panic. The bubble cant possible pop  at this point in the chart anyway. After a third correction btc and showing immense suppport btc is going to emerge like a phoenix to break out to the next leg up. I am going to hold btc.
Next Morning: btcchina went down further to 3800CNY causing all markets to have a giant capitulation crash. This is horrible. At least I am able to trade my way out of the loss with the big waves (and I did).

Fourth Night (tonight): btcchina is at a high of 5450CNY. Suddenly volume has picked up and there has been an epic recovery. I wonder what this means? I'm not sure. Is it going to the moon now? Now which position should I go to sleep in?

Ask JayB.  He's got all the answers.  And he's 100% certain which was it's going to go and when you should get out of your trades.

lolol +1

[cr1776]

A more viable options market for bitcoin would help smooth out the volatility. Being able to buy puts at $1100 would have allowed many to stay in and yet be protected on the downside. Of course that wouldn't come cheaply.