There are new boards in the local sections requested by the moderators of these sections (French (~ end 2018), Russian and maybe German), but also by users (for the Croatian section). So no big changes  . Thank you. I published my year-end report and there are a bit more details. I don't know names of those new child-boards but data scrapers might know it. - Total boards: There are 3 times the number for total boards changed in 2020
- 254 to 255: 15 Sep 2020
- 255 to 257: 25 Nov 2020
- 257 to 258: 04 Dec 2020
- Which are those new child-boards?
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2020-year-end reportBefore going to the report, I wish you all are reading the post a happy and prosperous new year!
This report contains 4 main parts: - Forum seclog
- Forum ad stats
- Merit system
- Total boards, daily new members, posts
- Data source: loyce.club
Forum seclogWoke-up - There are a few potential outliers that are represented by circles in box plots or spikes in time-series plot. They appear in February and October of 2020.
- In the year, there are 3 days that have more than 1000 woke-up accounts: 06 Feb 2020 (2612), 11 Feb 2020 (1020) and 30 Oct 2020 (1901).
- On the daily basis, 50% of 366 days have about 215 woke-ups each day (the median - p50) and 50% of days have daily woke-ups range from 193 to 261 cases (the interquartile range -- p25 to p75).
- Min and max values are 139 and 2611 on 13 Jun 2020 and 06 Feb 2020, respectively.
- Details over months can be seen in the raw table below or in the box plot above.
There are few other stats for password reset via email (prvia_e); password reset via secret question (priva_sq); password changed (pc); manual recovery, ownership change queued (mrecovery) Raw resultsWoke-ups Summary for variables: wokeup
by categories of: month
month | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020m1 | 31.0 217.7 37.8 212.0 187.0 240.0 161.0 317.0
2020m2 | 29.0 392.6 462.7 243.0 215.0 320.0 180.0 2612.0
2020m3 | 31.0 260.3 158.3 198.0 178.0 242.0 150.0 680.0
2020m4 | 30.0 225.3 42.8 223.0 197.0 243.0 164.0 367.0
2020m5 | 31.0 214.9 22.2 212.0 199.0 225.0 187.0 287.0
2020m6 | 30.0 194.9 33.9 195.0 171.0 211.0 139.0 285.0
2020m7 | 31.0 206.5 36.4 205.0 191.0 221.0 152.0 327.0
2020m8 | 31.0 223.5 37.7 213.0 200.0 242.0 172.0 327.0
2020m9 | 30.0 225.7 63.7 206.0 185.0 244.0 145.0 425.0
2020m10 | 31.0 295.3 307.5 215.0 179.0 305.0 151.0 1901.0
2020m11 | 30.0 304.7 104.0 276.0 254.0 332.0 191.0 668.0
2020m12 | 31.0 371.3 182.6 354.0 228.0 438.0 174.0 830.0
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 366.0 260.6 186.4 215.0 193.0 261.0 139.0 2612.0
Password reset via email Summary for variables: prvia_e
by categories of: month
month | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020m1 | 31.0 51.7 8.7 51.0 47.0 57.0 31.0 73.0
2020m2 | 29.0 58.2 14.2 56.0 50.0 67.0 38.0 106.0
2020m3 | 31.0 43.4 6.7 43.0 38.0 47.0 31.0 57.0
2020m4 | 30.0 54.0 7.1 53.0 50.0 58.0 43.0 70.0
2020m5 | 31.0 48.4 8.4 47.0 44.0 53.0 34.0 67.0
2020m6 | 30.0 40.4 6.9 39.5 36.0 44.0 25.0 53.0
2020m7 | 31.0 43.9 7.0 46.0 39.0 47.0 24.0 61.0
2020m8 | 31.0 45.4 7.1 44.0 39.0 51.0 34.0 60.0
2020m9 | 30.0 42.6 7.8 43.0 38.0 49.0 25.0 54.0
2020m10 | 31.0 48.3 13.0 46.0 39.0 52.0 32.0 92.0
2020m11 | 30.0 54.8 13.3 54.5 49.0 60.0 23.0 85.0
2020m12 | 31.0 54.5 15.1 51.0 42.0 69.0 28.0 84.0
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 366.0 48.8 11.4 47.5 41.0 54.0 23.0 106.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Password reset via secret question Summary for variables: prvia_sq
by categories of: month
month | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020m1 | 31.0 0.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.0
2020m2 | 29.0 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.0
2020m3 | 31.0 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
2020m4 | 30.0 0.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.0
2020m5 | 31.0 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.0
2020m6 | 30.0 0.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.0
2020m7 | 31.0 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 5.0
2020m8 | 31.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 5.0
2020m9 | 30.0 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.0 0.0 5.0
2020m10 | 31.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.0
2020m11 | 30.0 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.0
2020m12 | 31.0 0.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 5.0
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 366.0 0.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 5.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Password changed Summary for variables: pc
by categories of: month
month | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020m1 | 31.0 16.9 6.4 16.0 11.0 21.0 8.0 30.0
2020m2 | 29.0 14.9 5.6 15.0 10.0 19.0 5.0 27.0
2020m3 | 31.0 14.0 6.2 13.0 10.0 17.0 6.0 38.0
2020m4 | 30.0 15.2 10.8 13.5 10.0 18.0 4.0 66.0
2020m5 | 31.0 13.1 4.4 13.0 10.0 15.0 6.0 26.0
2020m6 | 30.0 10.9 4.2 10.5 8.0 13.0 5.0 26.0
2020m7 | 31.0 13.0 3.9 13.0 11.0 16.0 6.0 22.0
2020m8 | 31.0 11.6 3.9 12.0 9.0 14.0 5.0 24.0
2020m9 | 30.0 12.2 4.6 12.0 9.0 15.0 4.0 27.0
2020m10 | 31.0 14.7 4.7 15.0 11.0 18.0 4.0 27.0
2020m11 | 30.0 16.5 5.5 16.5 13.0 21.0 4.0 28.0
2020m12 | 31.0 18.0 6.3 20.0 12.0 21.0 7.0 30.0
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 366.0 14.2 6.1 13.0 10.0 17.0 4.0 66.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Manual recovery, ownership change queued Summary for variables: mrecovery
by categories of: month
month | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020m1 | 31.0 0.7 1.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.0
2020m2 | 29.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
2020m3 | 31.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
2020m4 | 30.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
2020m5 | 31.0 0.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0
2020m6 | 30.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
2020m7 | 31.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
2020m8 | 31.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0
2020m9 | 30.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
2020m10 | 31.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
2020m11 | 30.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0
2020m12 | 31.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 366.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- In 2020, daily impression counts try to recover but its two highest peak are only around more than half of 2018 all time high.
- Daily impression count does not have good correlation with bitcoin price in a short time frame. Maybe in the long-term, bitcoin rises help the statistic rides together.
- There is a correlation (no evidence) between altcoin rises and daily impression count as you see 2 facts: all time high is in 2018, and the chart for 2020 shows inverse correlation between bitcoin price and this indicator.
- Somewhat it is logic if taking into consideration the effects from bounties.
Comparative box plots over years (2012 - 2020) In 2020 - Total impressions rallies a lot and almost hit the 2019 figure but is still far from 2018 all time high. It currently is more than half of all time high. (See the vertical lines in boxes)
- Total impressions from logged-in users perform worse and even less than a half of 2018 all time high.
- 2 other indicators: "Unique IPs from logged-out users" and "Unique logged-in users" are the worst as they are currently staying at the similar levels of 2014 to 2016
- It is bad in terms of statistics but as a member, I think of it positively as spammers are less destroying the forum and its quality
Merit system- 50% of days have 695 merits are distributed within a day that is represented by the p50 value in the raw data table or the Red vertical line in the box plot
- Additionally, the range of 50% of days around the median is from 622 to 805 (the interquartile range from p25 to p75)
- The second half of this year has less daily merits distributed. See the box plot and it reflects that medians for months from Jan to May is above the red line -- skew towards the right, but the second half (from June to December) have medians below the red line -- skew towards the left.
- Min and max values are 395 and 1364 on 13 Jun 2020 and 17 Feb 2020, respectively
Raw result Summary for variables: merit
by categories of: month
month | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020m1 | 31.0 912.3 150.0 871.0 777.0 1051.0 637.0 1192.0
2020m2 | 29.0 878.4 176.3 857.0 729.0 1004.0 596.0 1364.0
2020m3 | 31.0 735.7 143.3 727.0 634.0 800.0 452.0 1090.0
2020m4 | 30.0 750.8 128.6 728.5 660.0 846.0 490.0 1062.0
2020m5 | 31.0 770.1 144.7 734.0 690.0 806.0 530.0 1198.0
2020m6 | 30.0 640.0 107.2 648.5 587.0 688.0 395.0 835.0
2020m7 | 31.0 666.5 117.7 668.0 581.0 747.0 476.0 957.0
2020m8 | 31.0 686.7 157.0 650.0 592.0 795.0 449.0 1072.0
2020m9 | 30.0 660.7 140.1 643.0 561.0 691.0 471.0 1111.0
2020m10 | 31.0 694.1 117.4 679.0 612.0 761.0 473.0 982.0
2020m11 | 30.0 690.4 95.3 672.5 620.0 746.0 541.0 1001.0
2020m12 | 31.0 652.1 125.0 629.0 570.0 765.0 450.0 916.0
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 366.0 727.8 157.5 695.0 622.0 805.0 395.0 1364.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This section is from 1 July 2020 to 31 Dec 2020. - Total boards: There are 3 times the number for total boards changed in 2020
- 254 to 255: 15 Sep 2020
- 255 to 257: 25 Nov 2020
- 257 to 258: 04 Dec 2020
- Which are those new child-boards?
- Spam (SEO ?) attacks in December 2020 that are disclosured by spikes in total new members, and posts. Look at max values in the raw results table and wider range of boxes in box plots
Raw resultsNew members Summary for variables: n_mem
by categories of: month (month)
month | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 | 30.0 379.6 48.6 386.0 351.0 402.0 277.0 501.0
8 | 31.0 395.6 85.3 386.0 333.0 423.0 284.0 660.0
9 | 30.0 393.4 70.8 406.5 342.0 454.0 256.0 510.0
10 | 31.0 416.9 166.2 372.0 338.0 429.0 266.0 1018.0
11 | 30.0 588.2 193.3 507.0 428.0 703.0 384.0 1014.0
12 | 31.0 1886.3 1549.2 1483.0 1003.0 2424.0 554.0 9060.0
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 183.0 680.3 843.6 418.0 361.0 635.0 256.0 9060.0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New posts Summary for variables: n_posts
by categories of: month (month)
month | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 | 30.0 6382.6 586.7 6477.5 6175.0 6724.0 5091.0 7534.0
8 | 31.0 6270.6 283.6 6299.0 6068.0 6460.0 5606.0 6820.0
9 | 30.0 6290.3 527.1 6259.0 5888.0 6659.0 5477.0 7628.0
10 | 31.0 6498.0 513.7 6445.0 6134.0 6840.0 5462.0 7909.0
11 | 30.0 7556.1 642.0 7647.0 7238.0 8006.0 5756.0 8621.0
12 | 31.0 8554.2 1310.5 8176.0 7633.0 9161.0 6738.0 11538.0
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 183.0 6928.3 1114.1 6609.0 6203.0 7509.0 5091.0 11538.0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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You can not say institutes beat retailers and vice versa. They are two mutual components of any market. In different phase, one component dominates the another and it flips at different market phase.
I am sorry but you are comparing apples and oranges here. Failing to recognize the difference between the retail and institutional market is a mistake. We would have never reached these prices with the retail market only, I guess that should be clear. You may find the following article interesting https://articles.cruxinvestor.com/institutional-vs-retail-investorsYou did not see the word mutual? I did not say they are the same and they can create games in the market without the another component. Institutes ~ whales, just a name-calling as institutes when they are companies, entities, not a person. |
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You sell something and later down the road, that goes multifold.
How do you deal with such things in positive way?
Multi-fold or not, I don't care after I take profit. Why? - If my calculation (to take profit) is inaccurate, it means I get less profit than what I should have with more accurate calculation.
- Fortunately, it does not mean I take a loss. Just get less profit.
- If I regret and chase the market, I will possibly take a loss or worst a very big loss
- Miss a peak (to take profit), calm down, hang out, enjoy life, and come back days later, to find another new good entry. Market always has good entries for wise traders/ investors
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So after you find the missing seed, how to make sure the owner of that wallet won't lose it and correlated fund to you? There are few tools to use and recover wallets offline. |
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The retail game cannot beat the institutional one: there are infinite orders of magnitude between their money ammo and those available to poor consumers. The bitcoin market changed its face for good, forget 2017.
You can not say institutes beat retailers and vice versa. They are two mutual components of any market. In different phase, one component dominates the another and it flips at different market phase. Mid-point of the parabola rise is around, according to some speculations - This tweet
- My calculation (with same assumptions that not count for bigger power in current and future market. I meant if taking into consideration of bigger power from institutes, retailers as increase of adoption, price would be higher than what I calculated)
- Mayer bands (it is only in Bullish extension, not Overbought yet)
- My calculation almost matches with this chart (upper bound but BTC can rock over upper bound)
- The party is here but please be cautious of hiccups
Bitcoin $BTC is redefining the concept of "overbought." Bull markets become and remain overbought. Major bull markets become overbought majorly. Historic bull markets become historically overbought. Red arrows mark midpoints of parabolic advances
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Happy new year and I have my first update in 2021 for you. - Price maintains its rise since the massive weak down with the return of Western market after a very long holidays.
- Price sets it new all time high.
- Volume: I talked about volume in previous posts and here you go with new all time high in daily volume (in $) within a first week of 2021
- Reminder: there is new all time high for volume but it is in $ value. Keep in mind that daily volume in BTC traded is different and has not yet reached new all time high
- The bar chart is for top-20 days in daily volume
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They used over-killing fee. Around the time of that transaction (5:26 AM UTC), fee at 50 sat/(v)byte (even 10 - 15 mins before that time-point) can help to get confirmation next 1 block but they used 100 sat/(v)byte. They over-charge on miner fees because if they didn't, they would be overwhelmed with questions like where is my bitcoin? My bitcoin hasn't arrived in over an hour, etc. I knew and as I said, they want 1-attempt action and finish it (Replace-by-Fee is marked as No). Hence, the 100% higher transaction fee is acceptable if taking the core approach of exchange: Don't want to waste resources and replace transactions to save fees. The rest more than 90% of withdrawal fee after a deduction for transaction fee goes to their service operation, maintenance, technical things. It is fact and a thing to accept before people start to use exchanges. Fair or not fair for both sides (exchanges or customers), I don't bring it here. My message for this thread readers is beware of this fact and try to use non-custodial wallets if they are not trading. I know there are alternatives to withdraw funds (in altcoins): Dogecoin, Litecoin, XRP, TRON, etc. Some alternatives charge withdrawal fees but almost zero in USDT value. It is not the main purpose of this thread but as someone are discussing about it, I admitted I used alts for my withdrawals if possible but for every batch, it is not a huge fund. If I move a huge fund, I use bitcoin.
It's not true for all the exchanges. For instance, ftx.com doesn't charge any fee on withdrawal in most of the cases unless total withdrawal amount is bigger than the users trading volume
You are correct. I know some crypto gambling sites waive the fee but not sure about exchanges. All and most are different in meanings and I should use most (corrected it already). I used ftx, not much and did not make withdrawal with BTC so I did not notice it. Thanks.
for Doge is just 50, that's 0.50$ Doge barely has fees, so this is 98% profit for the exchange. I've seen withdrawal fees for XLM as low as 0.0001 (or even more zeros?), I don't get why they only want to make a profit on certain fees. All cryptocurrencies (or most ? -- if I missed something) charge fees for their transactions. Fortunately, the transaction costs are different and partially depends on value of each cryptocurrency. A transaction fee with one Dogecoin is different than with 1 XRP, and very different than 0.01 ETH, ie.
Your discussions remind me about one fact in my nation: - Schools charge fee for infrastructure maintenance. Personally, I think it sucks and they can publicly charge all in tuition fee. Charging additional fee and call it as infrastructure maintenance fee is sucked and somewhat corrupted or faulty analogy.
- Imagine: Do I have to pay for infrastructure fee when I go to a hotel and take one room?
- I don't know whether the infrastructure fee is charge at schools in Western/ developed nations?
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Agree with most analyses now that retail fomo won't be as strong as in the past, but that is only with the past and current demographic of developed economies. The East Asian fomo, with a significant population of high disposable income should lay the foundation for a new breed of retail fomo... Not to mention later from emerging economies.
Bitcoiners' Demographic over years- Surveys have many things with their survey designs, then analytical methods and analytical process. Those stats in that thread are all for reference with zero guarantee on their accuracy.
- From my reading time, I found out that older generations have been more interested in bitcoin. It makes sense as they are most conservative people so if they accept bitcoin, are readily to spend capital to bitcoin, the younger generations will have more adoption on bitcoin.
As someone above said, it's only just getting started!
A lot of people who refused to touch BTC last time around will get in this time.
As being said, I expect bigger effects from both institutes and retailers. Game is set but beware of hiccups along the adventure in 2021. The estimate in OP is 'naive' estimate, with many assumption from past data. It is impossible to calculate or estimate power of new investor sources. That price is still lower than some other speculation.
In reality, institutes will have effects (probably bigger), and retailers might have very bigger effects than what they created in 2017.
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is it actually revenue, or just recouped costs? we need a deeper analysis. i once dug into some of binance's wallet consolidations during high congestion periods and as i recall, they pay very significant fees to ensure on-demand withdrawals. even when network fees are cheap, exchanges may feel the need to hedge against future high fee periods too.
They used over-killing fee. Around the time of that transaction (5:26 AM UTC), fee at 50 sat/(v)byte (even 10 - 15 mins before that time-point) can help to get confirmation next 1 block but they used 100 sat/(v)byte. It is not a new discovery that exchanges usually use over-killing fees for their transactions. They need to prepare for sudden rise in mempool AND don't want to spend sources to do Replace-by-Fee. They want something absolutely is done with 1 attempt. The over-killing transaction fee (100 sat/vbyte) can be accepted but earn 93.1% of withdrawal fees (in BTC) is what I brought here. It is not an attack on Binance as it exists with all exchanges. |
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Google trend with bitcoin keyword (globally) is on a rise and it is currently about 25% lower than its all time high in 2017.
Wrong time frames are being compares here, but it is interesting to see that the trend is already going up this soon. All time high in 2017 was the end of the bull run after lots of rises and when the bubble was reached whereas now is just the beginning of the bull run and if anything it is more like the beginning of 2017 rather than its end. Thanks. I know that and this thread is for very robust overview on the market with some assumptions behind: - Gogole Trend does not change their algorithm for those stats over last 5 years.
- Beware and accept biases from Google Trend stats
- Assume the power or force of retailers on the market in 2 periods are the same
- Skip other power/ force from institutes in near future
In reality, institutes will have effects (probably bigger), and retailers might have very bigger effects than what they created in 2017. The hype is just getting started  I am speechless, it is not what I expected hours ago.  |
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As per the above data it seems that 2014 was the worst year for bitcoin. It had the lowest number of positive streaks and highest number of negative streaks in 2014.
You can see the difference in total rise / fall streaks in bearish or bullish year. In bullish year, rise streaks dominate the data, and longevity of streaks look longer as well as percent of gain in every streak tends to be higher and vice versa for bearish year. Bitcoin gains were moderate as of 2020 but if it keeps growing on this rate then 2021 might be a very good year for bitcoin. Chances are there we might break the positive streak record of 2017.
Records (for Rise) are 2 parts: - Total streaks within a specific year
- Max value of % gain among all streaks in a specific year. It makes sense to take profit
- Unfortunately, it is purely data, and does not give you safe heaven to end with profit. Entry and exit points with correlated period are key to finish your trades/ investments.
If you don't mind which tool do you use to get the bitcoin price for each year/month ? Is there any API or something ?
I maybe forgot to mention data source in OP (that I usually do), it is taken from coinmarketcap.com. |
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From the visual chart, it seems that retailers (old, new) rejoin or join the party again. The time-series line for Google trend with bitcoin keyword (globally) is on a rise and it is currently about 25% lower than its all time high in 2017. The thread is to announce the potential of a new wave from retailers. A reminder is you do know what sort of retailers' effects and their longevitty, then what will happen after that. It is a very simplified view. Sometimes, we need to be as simplest as possible. From the data points around 15k (Bitcoin Google trend) to 20k, it is ~ 33% increase for Bitcoin Google trend. Within the same period, the price of bitcoin rose from $15455 to $19140. It is about 23.85% rise. If history repeats itself, the price of bitcoin from current all time high at $34778 will rise up to $ 43072. That price is still lower than some other speculation. Again, it is not my financial advice, just my opinion and another different way to view the market.
Data sources |
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Instead of combine data from those sites (I also don't know how to download data from their charts), I use data from Google trend with 2 keywords: bitcoin and bitcointalk.org. I use the multiplier 200 to make the chart more visual comparative. A combination of two variables for bitcoin, bitcointalk.org and Bitcoin price (daily close price from coinmarketcap.com), here you go with the time series chart. What do we have here? - Google Trend with Bitcoin keyword has sort of correlation with bitcoin price
- In contrast, the Google Trend with bitcointalk.org keyword does not have correlation with bitcoin price
Raw data (with 200 mulitplier) +----------------------------------------------------+
| date close bitcoin200 bitcointalk200 |
|----------------------------------------------------|
1. | 10jan2016 447.99 600 0 |
2. | 17jan2016 382.3 600 3600 |
3. | 24jan2016 402.97 600 3600 |
4. | 31jan2016 368.77 400 3600 |
5. | 07feb2016 376.62 400 3600 |
6. | 14feb2016 407.23 400 0 |
7. | 21feb2016 438.8 400 1800 |
8. | 28feb2016 433.5 600 0 |
9. | 06mar2016 407.71 400 0 |
10. | 13mar2016 414.07 400 0 |
11. | 20mar2016 413.76 400 1800 |
12. | 27mar2016 426.77 400 0 |
13. | 03apr2016 420.9 400 0 |
14. | 10apr2016 421.56 400 0 |
15. | 17apr2016 427.4 400 0 |
16. | 24apr2016 458.55 600 0 |
17. | 01may2016 451.88 800 3600 |
18. | 08may2016 458.55 600 3600 |
19. | 15may2016 457.57 400 1800 |
20. | 22may2016 439.32 400 1800 |
21. | 29may2016 526.23 600 0 |
22. | 05jun2016 574.98 600 0 |
23. | 12jun2016 672.78 800 0 |
24. | 19jun2016 763.78 800 1800 |
25. | 26jun2016 629.37 600 0 |
26. | 03jul2016 658.66 600 0 |
27. | 10jul2016 649.36 600 1800 |
28. | 17jul2016 679.46 400 0 |
29. | 24jul2016 661.28 600 0 |
30. | 31jul2016 624.68 600 1800 |
31. | 07aug2016 592.69 600 2000 |
32. | 14aug2016 570.47 400 2000 |
33. | 21aug2016 581.31 400 0 |
34. | 28aug2016 573.91 400 1800 |
35. | 04sep2016 608.63 600 1800 |
36. | 11sep2016 606.72 400 1800 |
37. | 18sep2016 609.87 400 0 |
38. | 25sep2016 600.83 400 0 |
39. | 02oct2016 610.89 400 1800 |
40. | 09oct2016 616.75 600 1800 |
41. | 16oct2016 641.63 600 0 |
42. | 23oct2016 657.07 600 0 |
43. | 30oct2016 701.86 600 3600 |
44. | 06nov2016 711.52 600 0 |
45. | 13nov2016 702.03 600 1800 |
46. | 20nov2016 731.03 600 5200 |
47. | 27nov2016 732.03 600 0 |
48. | 04dec2016 773.87 600 0 |
49. | 11dec2016 769.73 600 3400 |
50. | 18dec2016 790.53 800 5400 |
51. | 25dec2016 896.18 1000 1800 |
52. | 01jan2017 998.33 1400 0 |
53. | 08jan2017 911.2 1200 1600 |
54. | 15jan2017 821.8 800 1600 |
55. | 22jan2017 924.67 800 1600 |
56. | 29jan2017 919.5 800 0 |
57. | 05feb2017 1027.34 800 4800 |
58. | 12feb2017 999.18 800 0 |
59. | 19feb2017 1047.87 1000 4800 |
60. | 26feb2017 1165.2 1200 4800 |
61. | 05mar2017 1267.12 1400 3200 |
62. | 12mar2017 1221.38 1000 1600 |
63. | 19mar2017 1036.74 1200 1600 |
64. | 26mar2017 966.72 1000 3200 |
65. | 02apr2017 1102.17 1000 3200 |
66. | 09apr2017 1187.87 1000 0 |
67. | 16apr2017 1182.94 1000 1600 |
68. | 23apr2017 1207.21 1000 4800 |
69. | 30apr2017 1347.89 1400 1600 |
70. | 07may2017 1596.71 1800 3200 |
71. | 14may2017 1808.91 2200 1800 |
72. | 21may2017 2041.2 3800 5200 |
73. | 28may2017 2155.8 2600 10600 |
74. | 04jun2017 2511.81 2400 6800 |
75. | 11jun2017 2958.11 2600 6800 |
76. | 18jun2017 2548.29 2200 6800 |
77. | 25jun2017 2589.41 2200 3600 |
78. | 02jul2017 2506.47 1800 5400 |
79. | 09jul2017 2518.44 2000 3400 |
80. | 16jul2017 1929.82 2400 5400 |
81. | 23jul2017 2730.4 2200 1800 |
82. | 30jul2017 2757.18 3000 3400 |
83. | 06aug2017 3213.94 2800 6600 |
84. | 13aug2017 4073.26 4000 5200 |
85. | 20aug2017 4087.66 3200 3400 |
86. | 27aug2017 4382.88 3400 10200 |
87. | 03sep2017 4582.96 3600 11600 |
88. | 10sep2017 4122.94 4200 3200 |
89. | 17sep2017 3582.88 3200 6600 |
90. | 24sep2017 3682.84 2400 3400 |
91. | 01oct2017 4403.74 2600 6600 |
92. | 08oct2017 4610.48 3800 8200 |
93. | 15oct2017 5678.19 4000 11400 |
94. | 22oct2017 6008.42 4000 6400 |
95. | 29oct2017 6153.85 5600 0 |
96. | 05nov2017 7407.41 5600 4800 |
97. | 12nov2017 5950.07 6200 4800 |
98. | 19nov2017 8036.49 5400 6400 |
99. | 26nov2017 9330.55 13000 9400 |
100. | 03dec2017 11323.2 18800 14400 |
|----------------------------------------------------|
101. | 10dec2017 15455.4 17200 11200 |
102. | 17dec2017 19140.8 20000 8400 |
103. | 24dec2017 13925.8 12400 10600 |
104. | 31dec2017 14156.4 9600 15000 |
105. | 07jan2018 16477.6 9000 10800 |
106. | 14jan2018 13772 11400 20000 |
107. | 21jan2018 11600.1 7400 16800 |
108. | 28jan2018 11786.3 8200 10800 |
109. | 04feb2018 8277.01 9600 9400 |
110. | 11feb2018 8129.97 5400 9400 |
111. | 18feb2018 10551.8 4800 13800 |
112. | 25feb2018 9664.73 3800 10600 |
113. | 04mar2018 11512.6 3800 6000 |
114. | 11mar2018 9578.63 3800 7600 |
115. | 18mar2018 8223.68 3600 6000 |
116. | 25mar2018 8495.78 3600 9600 |
117. | 01apr2018 6844.23 3400 0 |
118. | 08apr2018 7023.52 3200 3000 |
119. | 15apr2018 8329.11 2800 9400 |
120. | 22apr2018 8802.46 3000 9200 |
121. | 29apr2018 9419.08 2600 4800 |
122. | 06may2018 9654.8 2600 10800 |
123. | 13may2018 8723.94 2200 0 |
124. | 20may2018 8513.25 2400 12400 |
125. | 27may2018 7368.22 2200 7800 |
126. | 03jun2018 7720.25 1800 3000 |
127. | 10jun2018 6786.02 2600 0 |
128. | 17jun2018 6499.27 2000 1600 |
129. | 24jun2018 6173.23 2200 0 |
130. | 01jul2018 6385.82 2000 3000 |
131. | 08jul2018 6773.88 1800 3000 |
132. | 15jul2018 6359.64 2200 1600 |
133. | 22jul2018 7418.49 2400 7800 |
134. | 29jul2018 8218.46 2200 0 |
135. | 05aug2018 7068.48 2200 1600 |
136. | 12aug2018 6322.69 2000 0 |
137. | 19aug2018 6506.07 2000 3200 |
138. | 26aug2018 6707.26 2000 4600 |
139. | 02sep2018 7272.72 2200 0 |
140. | 09sep2018 6300.86 2000 3000 |
141. | 16sep2018 6517.18 1800 0 |
142. | 23sep2018 6710.63 1600 0 |
143. | 30sep2018 6625.56 1600 1600 |
144. | 07oct2018 6602.95 1800 3000 |
145. | 14oct2018 6290.93 1600 0 |
146. | 21oct2018 6482.35 1600 0 |
147. | 28oct2018 6486.39 1600 1600 |
148. | 04nov2018 6376.13 1600 1400 |
149. | 11nov2018 6411.27 2000 0 |
150. | 18nov2018 5623.54 2800 1600 |
151. | 25nov2018 4009.97 2800 3000 |
152. | 02dec2018 4139.88 2200 1600 |
153. | 09dec2018 3614.23 2200 3000 |
154. | 16dec2018 3252.84 2200 1600 |
155. | 23dec2018 3998.98 2000 0 |
156. | 30dec2018 3865.95 1800 3200 |
157. | 06jan2019 4076.63 1800 1600 |
158. | 13jan2019 3552.95 1600 1400 |
159. | 20jan2019 3601.01 1400 1400 |
160. | 27jan2019 3583.97 1600 1400 |
161. | 03feb2019 3464.01 1600 0 |
162. | 10feb2019 3690.19 1400 1400 |
163. | 17feb2019 3673.84 1600 0 |
164. | 24feb2019 3810.43 1600 1400 |
165. | 03mar2019 3847.18 1400 4400 |
166. | 10mar2019 3951.6 1400 0 |
167. | 17mar2019 4025.23 1400 1400 |
168. | 24mar2019 4022.17 1400 0 |
169. | 31mar2019 4105.4 2400 1400 |
170. | 07apr2019 5198.9 2000 1600 |
171. | 14apr2019 5167.72 1800 0 |
172. | 21apr2019 5314.53 1800 0 |
173. | 28apr2019 5285.14 1800 3000 |
174. | 05may2019 5795.71 2400 1400 |
175. | 12may2019 6972.37 3800 3000 |
176. | 19may2019 8197.69 2600 1400 |
177. | 26may2019 8673.22 2800 1400 |
178. | 02jun2019 8742.96 2400 0 |
179. | 09jun2019 7688.08 2000 0 |
180. | 16jun2019 8994.49 3400 0 |
181. | 23jun2019 10855.37 5000 0 |
182. | 30jun2019 10817.16 3400 1600 |
183. | 07jul2019 11450.85 3200 0 |
184. | 14jul2019 10256.06 3200 0 |
185. | 21jul2019 10599.11 2600 0 |
186. | 28jul2019 9552.86 2400 0 |
187. | 04aug2019 10970.18 2800 0 |
188. | 11aug2019 11523.58 2600 0 |
189. | 18aug2019 10345.81 2200 1400 |
190. | 25aug2019 10138.52 2200 1400 |
191. | 01sep2019 9757.97 2200 1400 |
192. | 08sep2019 10441.28 1800 0 |
193. | 15sep2019 10347.71 1800 0 |
194. | 22sep2019 10070.39 2400 1400 |
195. | 29sep2019 8104.19 2000 0 |
196. | 06oct2019 7988.16 1800 0 |
197. | 13oct2019 8321.01 1800 0 |
198. | 20oct2019 8222.08 2000 1400 |
199. | 27oct2019 9551.71 2000 1400 |
200. | 03nov2019 9235.35 1800 1400 |
|----------------------------------------------------|
201. | 10nov2019 9055.53 1800 0 |
202. | 17nov2019 8577.98 2000 0 |
203. | 24nov2019 7047.92 2000 1400 |
204. | 01dec2019 7424.29 1800 0 |
205. | 08dec2019 7564.35 1600 1400 |
206. | 15dec2019 7152.3 1800 0 |
207. | 22dec2019 7511.59 1600 0 |
208. | 29dec2019 7422.65 1800 3000 |
209. | 05jan2020 7411.32 2200 0 |
210. | 12jan2020 8192.49 2200 0 |
211. | 19jan2020 8706.25 2000 1400 |
212. | 26jan2020 8596.83 2000 0 |
213. | 02feb2020 9344.37 2200 0 |
214. | 09feb2020 10116.67 2400 0 |
215. | 16feb2020 9934.43 2200 0 |
216. | 23feb2020 9924.52 2200 0 |
217. | 01mar2020 8562.45 2000 3800 |
218. | 08mar2020 8108.12 4000 0 |
219. | 15mar2020 5392.31 3800 0 |
220. | 22mar2020 5830.25 3000 2400 |
221. | 29mar2020 5922.04 2600 2400 |
222. | 05apr2020 6791.13 2600 0 |
223. | 12apr2020 6971.09 2600 1200 |
224. | 19apr2020 7189.42 2400 2400 |
225. | 26apr2020 7679.87 3200 1200 |
226. | 03may2020 8897.47 3400 0 |
227. | 10may2020 8756.43 4200 1200 |
228. | 17may2020 9670.74 2800 0 |
229. | 24may2020 8790.37 2600 0 |
230. | 31may2020 9461.06 2400 0 |
231. | 07jun2020 9758.85 2400 1200 |
232. | 14jun2020 9386.79 2200 1200 |
233. | 21jun2020 9303.63 2000 0 |
234. | 28jun2020 9143.58 2000 0 |
235. | 05jul2020 9073.94 2000 1200 |
236. | 12jul2020 9276.5 2200 0 |
237. | 19jul2020 9185.82 2000 0 |
238. | 26jul2020 9905.17 3200 0 |
239. | 02aug2020 11053.61 3000 1200 |
240. | 09aug2020 11675.74 2800 0 |
241. | 16aug2020 11892.8 2600 1200 |
242. | 23aug2020 11664.85 2200 1200 |
243. | 30aug2020 11711.51 2200 0 |
244. | 06sep2020 10280.35 2200 2600 |
245. | 13sep2020 10323.76 2000 0 |
246. | 20sep2020 10938.27 1800 0 |
247. | 27sep2020 10774.43 1800 1200 |
248. | 04oct2020 10684.43 1800 0 |
249. | 11oct2020 11384.18 1800 0 |
250. | 18oct2020 11483.36 2600 0 |
251. | 25oct2020 13031.17 2800 0 |
252. | 01nov2020 13737.11 3000 0 |
253. | 08nov2020 15479.57 3000 1400 |
254. | 15nov2020 15955.59 4200 0 |
255. | 22nov2020 18370 4800 0 |
256. | 29nov2020 18177.48 4200 0 |
257. | 06dec2020 19345.12 3200 0 |
258. | 13dec2020 19142.38 5400 0 |
259. | 20dec2020 23477.3 5400 3000 |
260. | 27dec2020 26272.29 8400 0 |
261. | 03jan2021 32782.02 15000 0 |
+----------------------------------------------------+
Data sources |
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At least one output is a change address so at most 73 customers Initially, when I wrote OP, I forgot about change address but minutes later, I thought of it but still not sure there is or is not change address in that batch. The possibility of having change address is big but it is not 100% probability. It is reason I hesitate to edit OP. Anyway, thanks for the correction.
but it can not be accurate because exchanges withdrawal fee are not the same, they are different from exchanges to exchanges.
I left a note that for other exchanges or other periods, do your own research and calculations. Having a noncustodial wallet has been the best, not even only about transaction fee, but also about bitcoin and other crypto security and safety, exchanges are not safe and secure by design, they are often hacked.
It is not, at least IMO. You are overestimate the non-custodial wallet and security for your funds. Think of it this way: - Exchanges (big ones) have big security teams and they have multiple layers for their systems. But they are main targets of hackers so consequently the risks of attacks, hacks on exchanges are high or higher.
- Non-custodial wallets mean you have to fully control and secure your devices, your wallets. I am sure not all people are using non-custodial wallets keep their devices clean. Or they don't do multiply layers of protections. Or they regularly do stupid things.
To sum up, if you are doing stupid things on your devices, non-custodial wallet is worse than exchange wallets. Sometimes, exchanges can automatically protect your accounts from compromises. If you have healthy web-surfing, and don't often trade on exchanges, let's go with non-custodial wallets.
we as the users shouldn't assume 'withdrawal fees' equivalent to 'network fees'.
They are different things but somewhat can be connected IF exchanges apply dynamic withdrawal fee. In reality, most of exchanges are using Static (fix) withdrawal fee that does not correlate to transaction fee on the network.
Oversimplistic way of looking at things.
Those exchanges need to make money, what to you might look like a simple payment has people verifying, monitoring, and giving the go-ahead for it, it has support, it has an infrastructure to pay for all of it. Yeah, they make money from withdrawals fee, it's normal, I would be more amazed if somebody would do it for free.
There are many factors behind and as I wrote in OP, it is not an attack on exchanges. Instead, it is a reminder to people to beware of what they get from exchanges (chances to trade, etc.) and what they get loss from exchanges (withdrawal fees, ie.) I know exchanges need to have teams behind to keep their services operating safely. They need to have salary budgets for their staffs, and so on. If people decide to use exchanges, they automatically accept those (dis)advantages. Exchanges get their incomes from many sources: maker/ taker fees, listing fees, withdrawal fees, and partnerships with crypto projects, or manipulate their order books and make liquidations, etc.
Definitely, their fees could be cheaper, but fees are there for companies to make money and maybe for clients to keep as many coins on the exchange as possible so that their liquidity would be as high as possible.
Higher or lower, community can make voices but must accept ToS to use exchanges.
Look at it in % of BTC is better as the figure in USD will be changed with bitcoin price. The percent is not small -- 93.1% go to exchange, the rest (6.9% is for transaction fee to miners) |
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Excellent data compilation, thanks.
You are welcome. It is my love to do this as I am stats enthusiast. I like how stable is the Min of close price in the second graph. This shows us that the price is steadily rising even the fluctuations.
Truly it is. This fact (growth of bitcoin price) is also reflected through the yearly lowest price. Check details (stats and charts) there. Despite of some ups and downs, the yearly lowest price almost rises in 2 consecutive years. The exception is year 2015, when price ($171.51) has -40.7% compares to yearly lowest price in 2014 ($289.3) |
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It is not a new story, a new theory. Exchanges always do batch payments for their customers' withdrawal requests. They do only one batch payment in a single transaction for 10, 20, 50 withdrawals from 10, 20, 50 customers. For each customer, they charge a fix amount of withdrawal fee. Hey. Let's see how they earn profits from the type of fee. This transaction has: - 1 input (from the exchange)
- 74 outputs (to 74 customers)
- Each withdrawal will be charged with 0.0005 BTC as fee.
- Net withdrawal fee: 74 x 0.005 = 0.037 BTC
- The fee the exchange paid to miner is: 0.002554 BTC
- Profit = 0.037 - 0.002554 =.034446 BTC
- Profit in USD: 0.034446 *31000 = $1067.826
You can check this fact whenever you make your withdrawal on any exchange.
A simple message - Choose a non-custodial wallet and use it to store your bitcoin and to broadcast your bitcoin transactions if you are not trading on exchanges.
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I need another loan. Thank you. Request For a No Collateral Loan from DarkStarRequired BTC Amount: 0.1 BTCEstimated Loan Duration: 1 to 2 months. BTC Address: 16J4EgmFpiWBtji3WNyyqXQPcqnX6Z4JRA Signed Message: -----BEGIN BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----
This is tranthidung from bitcointalk and today is the 4th of November, 2020.
I am asking DarkStar_ for a 0.1 BTC loan.
Estimated duration :1 to 2 months.
If accepted, please send 0.1 BTC to : 16J4EgmFpiWBtji3WNyyqXQPcqnX6Z4JRA
-----BEGIN SIGNATURE-----
bc1qkjrr4u80fpyk59nlrlmzyfxfe37smauherfvfr
H+peY1ogmvvU9CkFdymJG4a/bdyWxJ8sxrjHEIvzxr6OPUOzxW/6MbQzt+T8j1aaShlVxjargYxZoZv1V4XWdfE=
-----END BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE----- I sent the 61 days (from 4 November 2020 to 4 Jan 2021) interests for the loan that equals to 7.137% of 0.1 BTC loan. The amount of interest sent is 0.007137 BTC. Please checkAlso the loan was accepted to expand for 2 more weeks. Thanks . di 0.117*61*.1/100
.007137
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I saw this tweet and it was released last week, not today. I agree that it is a most stupid, brainless FUD.
1 Bitcoin is always 100,000,000 Satoshis
I love the chart from coinmarketcap but not the original chart. The one I love is after all indicators: marketcap, Price, and 24h volume are hidden. What is left after that? - Only one orange horizontal line that represents 1 BTC is always 1 BTC
- 1 satoshi is always 1 satoshi
- Only 2 things change:
- Price of bitcoin/ satoshi
- The changes in intensity of bitcoin usage to satoshi usages in transactions
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