The same people currently participate in fiat system, which is so hellishly complicated that not 100 people in Finland could explain it for a perfect 6/6 essay. (I believe the number is much bigger for gold mining and Bitcoin mining.) Henry Ford said that it is good people don't understand it for otherwise there'd be a revolution before morning. Shame that Ford is not with us, he did not live to see the revolution we are witnessing!

The account software in XMR will do all the bookkeeping for you, just print is out for taxes. No sweat.

Can you tell me what is the reason I should buy it. You already know what I regard as a reason...

I have seen many bitcoin defectors in the phase of the last 6 weeks or so. The process goes as such:

- Realize that the final # of BTC (21M) is about the same as the final number of XMR (18M).
- Realize that by buying equal number of XMR, you are actually slightly ahead if it gains vs. BTC
- Realize that 1 XMR = 0.004 BTC
- Realize that hedge buying costs you essentially nothing except your pride of having never invested in an alt before
- Start to follow community
- Realize that many good guys are there
- Start to participate
- Realize that people there are on average actually cooler than just Bitcoin proponents
- Let that sink in
- Realize that it's possible to increase your financial position in the event that XMR succeeds vs. BTC, by buying more XMR
- Buy more XMR
- Realize that there is nothing BTC does better than XMR (once certain infrastructure is built to the latter)
- Realize things that should not be written in a Bitcoin forum
- Buy more XMR

The defection is completed when you start to feel that the world would be better without Bitcoin, with only XMR. Then you make the commitment to dump your BTC (that is still 50%-95% of your crypto) once the critical moment comes. When it does, XMR may go up 100x-1000x in a single year, and become so big that even BTC's value will be affected.

The defection payoff is currently about 250:1 (the difference in their price). You should understand that you may choose any level of defection, you can even defect with a 2.5:1 payoff by risking only 1% of your BTC, which is no defection at all, rather a hedge as discussed previously. This is starting to look like the similar kind of self-reinforcing mechanism that I posited for Bitcoin in early 2013, and prior to that, silver (which also rose 6x during the time of my all-in investment).

We also have a law that forbids using talking to mobile phone while driving. Texting is OK, or talking if you have a handsfree. This is an example why an elected body should never be allowed to make laws binding others. The majority does not care about this one and it is seldom enforced.

If the majority similarly disregarded (ignored) all other victimless crime laws including money laundering, wow how they would be liberated!

For the time the majority is still drugged (of brainwash, not drugs), having KYC to a limited number, perhaps 20, members, is of course much easier than having 1000s of members in a 24/7 exchange needing KYC. If this was about anything else except the world's foremost financial privacy cryptocurrency, there would be no need for cat and mouse and no need for KYC, and no problem to collect it if needed.

I know the idea is hot: when I started the same with physical investment silver, the first week after starting, my house and office were raided by government taskforce and all wealth confiscated. I was suspected of a financial crime so bogus that I wanted to talk the head investigator about the ridiculousness of seizing all my stuff to supposedly investigate a crime that a person in my position was logically unable to commit. He said many things which I remember to this day, including: "This is a bit nasty the first time, but then you get used to it." He then vanished, and was removed from documents, which do not acknowledge him even existing as part of the investigation. The invitation to do something meaningful again some day has been a guiding star for me.

Since I told the detailed model, I got no "wow, unbelievable practical financial innovation!!" comments. Only ones wanted to point out how it is difficult to fit in the old system. It is not intended to be fit in. Even Jesus said new wine should not be put in old wineskins lest both go bad. And I want everyone to be able to choose for himself in what kind of world he lives in.

The reason we tolerate the old system is that we are peaceful people and don't like confrontation with anyone. Not that we would like to have anything to do with them.

Price is up nicely and 0.004 is currently held 

It does not matter if 99% lose their faith on something, if the remaining 1% are wealthy enough and still accept it.

Bitcoin is an accepted medium for the extinguishing of a monetary obligation by 0.01% of world's population currently. It is not big even yet. If another cryptocurrency would come and match or overtake it, it would hardly matter anything.

The situation would be different if the general public did believe in crypto and accept them now. But that's not the case.

Just compare to the charade that is going on every day with the fiat currency world. None of the altcoin scams are as blatant. "To obtain a balance of coinX, you need to become indebted denominated in coinX and pay us interest...." and so the story goes.

Yet fiat has value.

Well that is very unlikely to happen. Also I don't want to be losing 99% of my wealth so I would jump out first, much before.

This jumping out, if it for some reason gains traction, could make the air (market cap) go from one balloon to another really fast.

Nobody can be complacent.

I don't remember the Kelly formula exactly for this complex case, but it will suggest minimum 50% and max 83% anyway. That should be prudent for long term investor with the intent on maximizing his bankroll but not going broke.

Because earning capacity can be added to the bankroll in real life, and running into debt is possible, the optimal strategy could actually be 100% or more for those whose initial capital is small. If I was 20 and healthy (neither of which is true), and that was an actual question presented to me, I would probably have taken up to €5,000 debt to leverage my investment, since that is easy to pay back if you are 20 and healthy.

Later I learned to not take debt.

Crypto to crypto is typically not defined "money" and if it is, then this can be taken where it isn't.

For a reasonable extra work it can be made anonymous.

If one of this type of helpful matchmaking services is harassed/busted, the rest will take due notice and become unharassable.

What I have done here in my name and face is to show you how it can be done with minimum effort.

Nothing is more powerful than an idea whose time has come.

I have to say that I became interested in Quark due to the user digitalindustry promoting it. Unfortunately my conclusions do not support investing into it, since the research confirmed my earlier belief that it is a p&d-coin with a small early community of large holders, a somewhat large "community" of bagholders from the last year's pump, and the coin is in many ways not even secure

Details.

I am not saying whether it is a good pump now or not, but the long-term value of the coin is zero.

My XMR/BTC matching exchange proposal updated. If you are interested in running this exchange, contact MEW.

The post contains all that is needed to start it between any two coins btw...

I reiterated my previous proposal for matching exchanges in BTC/ALT trade.

By checking the link, you have all the information required to make this happen in your favorite alt
- in a week,
- no coding skills or investments (except your time) are required, and the
- result will make the alt's in question liquidity go up in the factor of 5x-10x when the largest holders have joined the system.

The incentive for them to join is
- negative trading fees,
- increased liquidity of their investment, and
- 90-95% less funds at a systemic counterparty risk compared to trading in an exchange that has 100% guarantee requirement of customer assets (all 24/7 exchanges except ones with leverage).

A practical guide for anyone to make this for any coin. I have used XMR as an example, and assumed NO coding skills (most of us have them, and can make this happen more elegantly, but my only skill in the world is spreadsheet, 1990-). 1 XMR = $2.


Membership and fees

Anyone can become a member, but to become one, a 30 XMR handling fee must be paid.

The trading and all activities carry no charge except the monthly charge of 30 XMR, so for trading activity >500 XMR per day, this is cheaper than the leading 24/7 exchange.

Guarantee

In addition, a Guarantee deposit must be made. The Guarantee may be of any size and allows trading up to 10 times of the size of the Guarantee for both bids and asks, so up to 20 times leverage in total, and 95% reduced risk compared to 24/7 exchanges. The reasonable minimum Guarantee could be 250 XMR and maximum 5000 XMR, allowing the trade of 2,500 and 50,000 XMR per day, respectively. It does not matter in which currency the Guarantee is deposited, the maximums are adjusted automatically if it's in BTC.

Posting of bids and asks

The member orderbooks must be posted in csv-format (a standard Excel-sheet can be made for those who habitually use many orders) by 18:00 GMT, every day. This posting may be done by any means, PM, encrypted channel, even email. Posting is of course voluntary.

If the schedule of having the matching every day is deemed excessive, which it may well be for a small coin, it is also possible to cut it to 3 times per week eg. Mon, Wed, Fri. (I have experience on 2, 3, and 5 days per week stuff myself.)

Matching procedure

A member orderbook is all of the orders of a member listed, one per line. Once they are received, the operator matches them to each other, finding the price where demand=supply. At this point, the operator may add his own orders to balance the book. The requirement is that with the posted matching price, all the orders of the members must be fully fulfilled if they are in the right side of the matching price. This gives the operator the preknowledge of the others' aggregate situation, which does allow him to gain from privileged orders and arbitrage with exchanges. On the other hand, he is compelled to fill all orders fully, and must make the decision to set the price such that every order either fills or not, no partial fills, which is a handicap.

In practice an operator Excel-sheet does all the matching automatically once the offers are entered to it. The operator has 30 minutes from the deadline of the offers (until 18:30 GMT), to publish the matching price, which is public information. No other information needs to be made public.

Once the matching price is published, the members who had posted orderbooks and see that their offers have filled, have 90 minutes to initiate the transaction of sending their part of the offer to the operator (until 20:00 GMT). It is notable and beautiful that the operator need not notify the members separately.

If the transaction has not been sent, it is deemed defaulted. Should this happen, the operator is entitled to fixed 10% damages calculated from the value of the trade. It is deducted from the Guarantee. The operator must now take care of the fulfillment of the order himself. In practice this means that he goes to an exchange and buys the coins with slippage, forwards them to the buyer, and keeps what is left from the 10%. The operator is also responsible for the losses that exceed the 10%.

The operator now has 2 more hours (until 22:00 GMT) to initiate the transactions to send the coins to the buyers.

In this model the operator does not need much trading capital himself. He can easily make the system even more trustworthy for members to join in, if the Guarantee funds or a majority of them are held in an escrow or multisig.

Market-making bonus

To enable huge orders to be fulfilled, which is not really possible in 24/7 exchanges due to reasons previously outlined, there must be massive volume in both buy and sell side. Market-making is the activity where an owner of both the tradable things lists them both for sale simultaneously. As the price fluctuates, he is able to increase both stacks slowly. Here doing this is almost risk free, the system actually rewards the members for doing this (in addition to the fact that the trading fee is zero and buying low, selling high is profitable).

This does not need anything from the member's part. The matching system gives the members market-making points using the following formula (this is tailored for XMR with its low historical volatility, for some other coin the bounds should be higher):

- The depth at the point where the member's bid and ask total are of equal size and 3% apart in price;
- The depth at the point where the member's bid and ask total are of equal size and 6% apart in price;
- The depth at the point where the member's bid and ask total are of equal size and 9% apart in price.

To illustrate what this means, I take the numbers from the most voluminous exchange for XMR today, Poloniex:

- Depth 3% = 1,200 XMR
- Depth 6% = 4,600 XMR
- Depth 9% = ~7,000 XMR.

With all due respect towards both the exchange and XMR, the liquidity is not in professional level yet. A trade of ~7,000 XMR (0.2% of XMR) moves the price by 4.5%. With the matching system in place, it is likely that the competing market makers eager to make a buck and earn bonus, will be able to collectively offer 30,000-60,000 XMR (1-2% of XMR) in the 9% category, even more after getting used to the system and its benefits.

The bonus is calculated as follows: For each category, there is 1.0000 points up to the grabs per day, so total 90 points per month. Half of the monthly fees will be given back to the members in the proportion of points they earn, so the most eager market makers can earn their whole fee back and then some.

Each day and each category, the 1 point will be distributed in proportion to the depths that the members offered. If it is an uneventful day, the members feel comfortable to offer large walls, if it is an interesting and volatile day with insecurity where the price may end up, they are more hesitant to have large orders. In both cases the point total is 1, and it is divided in the proportions of the depths.

It is easy to envision that during some days a member is ready to list the maximum he is allowed in both bids and asks, between 9% of each other, to grab points and thus maximize the profit for the day that otherwise is dull. It should be noted that the percentage limits for each member are calculated from his orders only, so the percentage brackets may and will overlap, making the price-finding process all the more robust and not prone to even large shocks from external supply and demand.

Benefit to dealers and the public

If someone is in the business of selling XMR to outsiders, by joining this system he can make the price risk zero, by just fixing his selling price to the matching price beforehand, which the customer has learnt to accept in other markets such as precious metals (london gold & silver fixing), mutual funds (buy and sell prices quoted daily but decision must be made before the quote).

The public history of XMR/BTC matching prices will certainly show lower volatility than the records in any of the 24/7 exchanges, and it will quickly gain dominance as a public service based on which OTC trades will be conducted all over the world, with a negotiable premium +/- based on the mutual agreement of the participants.

It is called "luck" when they have tirelessly done things that have a low % of success, and a big payout, and it finally happens.

In the same way as buying lottery coupons, yes.

The difference is not whether luck is involved, it is in that entrepreneurship itself is based on skill and has a +EV, buying lottery coupons is neither.

Exactly this +1. 

Good ideas, such as cryptocurrency, benefit everyone - holders and non-holders alike!

That's why I suggested that hedging in a pareto-optimal way is not yet even taking a position due to Monero's own qualities! 

He is a troll paid by the anti-monero group, obviously. If you don't notice this and attribute him to Monero instead, then the trolling is successful, and will proliferate.

All liquidity is connected. The importance of this market is not that it is "closed" but that it is secure, with no 100%+100% predeposits. This enables higher liquidity here and therefore the price moves in every other market also become contained. The volume from back-and-forth trading may go down, but the real liquidity is measured with volatility and that will certainly go down.

It is the opposite. A proof that value is LOST. Others explain better 

Monero is the first alt (okay some said LTC a year ago..) that functions as a hedge to Bitcoin.

Same as Bitcoin is a hedge to paper assets.

Gold is a hedge to all.

This is very precious, to find an asset that has good positive EV and is a hedge. Everyone who has BTC does a pareto-improvement move by buying XMR, with 0.25%-5% of the holdings. This has nothing to do with taking a position, it is a slam dunk move if you invest professionally.