Its the same as Bitcoin, has its "losses", and has its winning streaks, and no matter what statistical data you show, there will always be people who claim Bitcoin has died, despite proving time, and time again its actually moving in a upward trend in the long term.
Streaks, I have it for both rise and fall streaks. Below is the part of table for 2020-streaks. In the last year (2020), there are 10 streaks in total (with my streak definition is for 5 +-days at least to be considered as a streak) and only 2 of them (20%) are Fall streaks. The rest 8 streaks (80%) are all Rise streaks. The last streak (also a rise) is lasting since late 2020 till early days of 2021 (yesterday) and might continue if bitcoin can bounce well today after dip few hours ago. 50% of 8 rise streaks have their duration (longevity) last from 6 to 8 days (I have to round the raw results) with the median is at 6 days. The shortest and longest rise streaks are 5 and 9 days, respectively. 50% of 8 rise streaks have changes (in %) range from 12.3% to 26.3% with the median is at 16.9%. The smallest and largest streaks are 8.8% and 32.2%, respectively. Raw results variable | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
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dur | 8.0 6.5 1.4 6.0 5.5 7.5 5.0 9.0
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variable | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
poc_s | 8.0 19.0 8.4 16.9 12.3 26.3 8.8 32.2
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More details: |
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Let me take this chance to bring my thread to life discussion again. - Sending BTC to BCH or whatever coins, vice versa. Don't do this, newbies !
- Something to note when you are making a transaction
- Check the ticker first
- Check the warning message on the platform you are using (whether additional details are required as tag)
- Check the chain (for USDT transactions, ie. there are few chains: OMNI layer on BTC chain, ERC20, TRC20, EOS, etc. Move your USDT or coins cross-chains will cause losses)
- Check the address (first, and last few characters if you don't check all characters)
- Check the amount you send out and the % of fee. Sometimes people send out a transaction that is eaten up by transaction fee.
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The year 2020 ends with the last rising streak from 29 December 2020 to 2 Jan 2021. It is also a 55 th Rise streak and 75 th streak (for both Rise and Fall streaks) in history of bitcoin. The close price on 2 Jan 2021 is $32,127 so if today the close price is higher than that, the 75 th will keep going. Let's see. When I have spare time in coming days, I will make the analysis for Weekly streaks that will be an upgraded from Daily streaks. Stay tuned! |
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3 Jan anniversary! Today is the anniversary day for Bitcoin's genesis block. Let's me use this remarkable day to make a plot for Bitcoin close price on 3Jan-dates. There are 2 exceptions: in 2013 and in 2021. Data from coinmarketcap.com in 2013 is from 29 Apr 2013, and this year, the date 3 Jan 2021 has not yet ended. What a growth! You can also look at price history for yearly low price in previous post. The year 2020 ends with the last rising streak from 29 December 2020 to 2 Jan 2021. It is also a 55 th Rise streak and 75 th streak (for both Rise and Fall streaks) in history of bitcoin. The close price on 2 Jan 2021 is $32,127 so if today the close price is higher than that, the 75 th will keep going. Let's see. When I have spare time in coming days, I will make the analysis for Weekly streaks that will be an upgraded from Daily streaks. Stay tuned! |
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Today is the anniversary day for Bitcoin's genesis block. Let's me use this remarkable day to make a plot for Bitcoin close price on 3Jan-dates. There are 2 exceptions: in 2013 and in 2021. Data from coinmarketcap.com in 2013 is from 29 Apr 2013, and this year, the date 3 Jan 2021 has not yet ended. What a growth! You can also look at price history for yearly low price in previous post. |
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Probably XMR, DASH and ZEC investors ->> BTC? it's going to be a win win situation for us.
Bitcoin is a King and dominates the market. You can exclude those privacy coins and think of DeFi tokens. Bitcoin does not need any crash or collapse from DeFi tokens to dominate the market. Bitcoin investors invest in bitcoin because they have some sort of belief in bitcoin decentralization, its fixed deflationary total supply and future higher demands on bitcoin. They don't invest in bitcoin because they feel bad with altcoins (at least it is not their main reasons). Capital from those coins can switch to bitcoin or to other altcoins. 
They're not really taken away from us. They failed to break these privacy coins. They are now resorting to other means of hopefully bringing them down. And just like their past attempts, and even huge bounty on cracking Monero, these recent steps wouldn't make these privacy coins worthless. As a matter of fact, all these attempts from government authorities are actually adding more weight to these coins' existence, making their arguments more valid than ever, although they also push them underground.
They will come back, I believe. It is almost similar story for bitcoin. How many times governments try to shut down bitcoin and mixing serivces but the price of bitcoin today is a strong evidence of governmental failures (with their fiats and their attempts to break down bitcoin). If you think those privacy coins are good technically and governments force exchanges to delist those coins, it is unofficial announcements of success for those privacy coins. Personally, I expected to see those negative things in early or middle of 2019. CipherTrace Files Two Monero Cryptocurrency Tracing PatentsSEC Awards Over $1.6 Million to Whistleblower |
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Happy New Year  Thanks and happy new year to all members in Best Change team exclusively the participants in the campaign and everyone. I wish you all a year full of adventures and prosperity. |
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You should be fine with leaving fiat on exchanges because exchanges getting hacked is mostly concerned with stolen bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and not fiat; Assuming you're actually referring to real fiat money and not stablecoins.
Hackers and their fund movements with fiat (real fiat) will be traced more easily when they make movements with crypto and some mixing combination methods to launder their hacked crypto. The point is there is no guarantee that after hackers were caught, all victims will get their funds back. Nothing is 100% safe: from exchanges to fiats, stable coins so the best approach is decentralize your funds in some sort of money storage: fiat + stable coins. I know for crypto enthusiasts, stable coins are their more favorite as convenience they bring to users. With their fast transaction speeds and wide adoption on exchanges, people can move stable coins around and buy up dips. With fiat, the adoption is less and people usually have to bear a temp loss in rate to buy Bitcoin with fiat or to convert fiat to stablecoin then buy bitcoin with stable coin. It is true when market is in hot mood. DAI is a good stable coin due to its decentralization. USDT is more used but beware of risks and related drama, potential lawsuit on USDT. I'd like to decentralize my stablecoin allocation into a few stable coins and in different wallets.
PSA: Most Stablecoins Can Be Frozen, Even in Your Own Wallets (it is your thread, I quoted it for OP).  |
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no and no
If you save that address and today you do not see any bitcoin or satoshi in that address by checking it with block explorer, it means your bitcoin was moved or you saved an inaccurate address. Without private key or mnemonic seed, you lose your chance to recover your wallet. By that I meant, you lost your bitcoin (even it has still been in that wallet and not yet been moved out) You don't need to create multiple topics for a single problem. Your previous thread cant see bitcoins in wallet
I'll ask a mod to move your thread to the Armory board, where one of the devs may help you out better. I suggested OP to move his/her previous topic to Armony childboard but he did not move it and created a new topic instead. You can move your topic to this child board Wallet software (Armony). Also you need to edit your topic title: I can not see bitcoin in my Armony wallet.
OP, please see this topic as well: [READ] Post Armory, MultiBit, Electrum, or online wallets in the right forum |
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no and no
If you save that address and today you do not see any bitcoin or satoshi in that address by checking it with block explorer, it means your bitcoin was moved or you saved an inaccurate address. Without private key or mnemonic seed, you lose your chance to recover your wallet. By that I meant, you lost your bitcoin (even it has still been in that wallet and not yet been moved out) |
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- The best protection is don't do stupid things on your devices.
- Antivirus softwares (AVs) don't protect you completely
- There are risks that your AVs fail to detect malwares when heuristic or behavior analyses or behavior-based protection fail to detect threats
- If a malware is entirely new, the risk is higher
- You should not put your life at risks (by stupid web-surfing behavior) then leave it to AVs to protect you from potential threats
- You can compare AVs with vaccine in the pandemic time. A good vaccine only reduce probability of infection for you but not 100% wipe out the risk. The same goes for AVs. You should not take a vaccination, then go to a crowd and say I am vaccinated and I won't be infected with the virus.
Heuristic analysisBehavior-based Protection |
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this was recieved over 2 years ago and unfortunately I dont have any of this information but at the time it was checked on the block chain that it had been sent to my wallet on armory
I don't use Armony wallet but very basics, if your bitcoin was moved to an address and you can check the balance in that address on bitcoin block explorer, your bitcoin is surely available in that wallet and that address. The rest part is recover your wallet (Armony). You can move your topic to this child board Wallet software (Armony). Also you need to edit your topic title: I can not see bitcoin in my Armony wallet. List of useful Bitcoin block explorers gives you many block explorers. Blockchair.com explorer is good but with any explorer, you should check your transaction with Tor. |
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I'm just revisiting this thread, as I said. Damn, what a terrible prediction. Anyone that got it right?
Damn it! I feel that whales are watching the interview series and they manipulate the market different than what all interviewers thought. It is basic characteristic of any market. Whales have their power and when they know most of traders are thinking of the market, they will play their games. Happy new year everyone. The year 2021 begins with a bitcoin fever and I wish all you a prosperous year. |
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IMHO token or alts will be back when rules of issuance and legal frameworks are set. I seem to have read that the electronic issuance of stocks is going to be allowed?
However, if this happens is not going to look like the ICO fever of 2016 - 2018
Scammers try to adapt to changes of crypto market and change their technical terms to scam people. They will return with other hypes obviously. - ICO -- IEO
- Stake/ masternode coin -- DeFi tokens, yield, farm.
As I understand, the SEC didn't go after ICOs because they are inherently illegal, they went after them because they were unregistered securities.
They are rule-makers and rules will be changed by them. I feel SEC want to concentrate on parent cryptocurrencies first as they can break down derivatives or parasites on parent blockchains. If they break Ethereum (with any lawsuit), ERC20-tokens will be killed. Such a nice tool but do you really know from where they do take these infos? Their API is directly connected with exchangers or CMC?
I did not look at it thoroughly. It's helpful but i need an insurance first, the graphs and the % of the BTC dominance is enough for me to judge if it's the btc or the alts season
Dominaces are biased with DeFi tokens so that these indicators don't give you good assessment nowadays. this is great---very useful tool for anyone trying to stack sats in the altcoin market, which is all about timing.
i'd love to see a bit more granularity, eg "is it an altcoin week"? when alt season kicks in, it happens fast. i reckon 30-day/90-day averages might lag.
It is possible, technically. Depends on input parameters, and your variable definitions, you can analyse it. I might (or might not) spend my time for such big analysis. I wouldn't call them "investors", they are either gullible gambler or day traders that are increasing their bitcoin capital by going into altcoin trading.
The thing about altcoin market, even the scammiest tokens, is that they can be super profitable ONLY if you know how to ride the pumping tide AND know when to get out before the unavoidable dump begins AND are willing to take huge risks getting involved in a super manipulated market.
Otherwise looking at altcoins as "investment" will always end in loss.
I thank you for your correction and your opinion is what I implied but your clarification makes it clearer. Lots of conditions for altcoin trades |
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It’s entertaining to see from a curiosity point of view.
Yes, it is entertaining, funny and for quick overview only. Since many altcoins are easy to move into the "better than bitcoin" category with a bit of engineering, doing so over a wider array of altcoins simultaneously may not, thus the "seasons" are determined by a wide range of the top 50 coins comparted to bitcoin.
It is the point. The site does not take into consideration some characteristics of altcoins: - Ages: it is very important and I'd like to have a chart for old altcoins, exclude all young altcoins as DeFi-tokens in 2020.
- Marketcap: altcoins should have average to big marketcap to be included. Low-cap altcoins mean nothing.
The 2 year chart view shows basically a couple of so called Altcoin seasons in 2017 (ICO hype), and a more recent one during august/September 2020, which seems to be DEFI hype driven.
I am waiting to see how old altcoins will break out and create a new season for altcoins in 2021. It will be a real altcoin season when old, big altcoins rock.
In the opposite approach, it is interesting if someone can develop a prospective follow-up charts for DeFi tokens. It will record how they reached all time high (in prices, marketcaps, total locked value) and how they tails off (die) over time. |
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I also sorted the miners pie chart and create a new bar chart (vertical, as horizontal was too crowed).
You are talented! Generally, you did a great work to improve that page, especially visual chart. It is good to know you are an open-minded person and this characteristic will help you growing more. Some people are too conservative and that characteristic restricts their learning, and working process. Would you mind explaining what is crowed? I don't understand it. I can imagine the horizontal bar chart can contain too much space on your page and it can be a trouble for that page, generally. Is it what you meant?
I liked the visual. By mistake I made the background green and I liked. I will redesign the dashboard soon with new colors.  I still think the font size for mining pool names should be a little bit smaller. Better visual and also better to catch attention of viewers on main and non-main points on your chart. Of course, it is personal perspective on which is main/ non-main points. My heads up. - Is it possible to include % (on top of bar) for top mining pools? Currently, the stats are in total blocks found by each mining pool.
- It will be messy if you include % for all pools and I only suggest for top mining pools every day. For non-top mining pools, skip the %.
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Bitcoin has it big impacts on altcoins but the truth is many crypto investors allocate main of their capital for altcoins. Experienced and successful investors do oppositely, invest in bitcoin for most of their capital. There is a website that gives quick views (with chart and some details) on bitcoin and altcoin season. - Where? Blockchaincenter.net
- Information
- Altcoin season
- Altcoin month
- Altcoin year
- List (in grid) of altcoins perform better or worse than bitcoin
It is for reference and only give you quick overview. It is funny for the part 'Altcoin year'. I have never thought there is a year in which bitcoin performs worse than altcoins. It would be especially true if the index is calculated from top 100 altcoins, not a single altcoin.
Ideas for developers?- It can be expanded to a few sub-categories in crypto market. More expanded seasons as DeFi season (LOL, I did not think there will be many DeFi shit tokens can last long)
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Note: You may want to ask people who quoted your OP to consider deleting at least the container, that bears your old username. I've deleted my quote in my prior post on this thread.
It is a very good reminder. I see some users still did not edit their posts and OP need to contact them via PMs to finish what you recommended.
Another note for OP is: - What was changed is display name of OP, not an initial and also fixed username.
- OP can ask for changes of username (in fact it is display name) as many times as possible if theymos accepts it. But if I know the initial username, I can use it to search and search result will direct to the current display name of OP.
- I tested and detected interesting thing. This case looks a special case and theymos changed initial username as well. I can not search it with OP's old username. The above statement is right for other cases.
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The Psychology of Internet Fraud Victimisation: a Systematic ReviewThis is an anecdote for spare time in the holidays. The forensic analysis on the psychology of fraud victims is interesting. Scammers don't have too many scam strategies and in fact they only change the tools for their scam strategies. The methods are the same but only the tools are different but sadly to say the victims don't change their mind and psychology is not controlled well enough.
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satoshi is a base unit (also smallest) of bitcoin. Bitcoin is scarce while satoshi is not scarce, I can agree but please look at the chronological changes in the way bitcoiners use bitcoin and satoshi. There are some meaningful discussions and explanations on why satoshi chose the total supply at 21 million bitcoins. Sources   I remember this discussion, actually.
Finney, Satoshi, and I discussed how divisible a Bitcoin ought to be. Satoshi had already more or less decided on a 50-coin per block payout with halving every so often to add up to a 21M coin supply. Finney made the point that people should never need any currency division smaller than a US penny, and then somebody (I forget who) consulted some oracle somewhere like maybe Wikipedia and figured out what the entire world’s M1 money supply at that time was.
We debated for a while about which measure of money Bitcoin most closely approximated; but M2, M3, and so on are all for debt-based currencies, so I agreed with Finney that M1 was probably the best measure.
21Million, times 10^8 subdivisions, meant that even if the whole word’s money supply were replaced by the 21 million bitcoins the smallest unit (we weren’t calling them Satoshis yet) would still be worth a bit less than a penny, so no matter what happened – even if the entire economy of planet earth were measured in Bitcoin – it would never inconvenience people by being too large a unit for convenience.
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