I'm talking about what is happening on BTCT, which is what happened last night. It is not the "market" reacting, it is someone diligently going through buy orders all the way to the bottom. and then they wait for newbs to freak out and they buy back cheap shares.
That kind of market manipulation is unhealthy, and I'm saying, folks, stop with it. Don't fall into the trap and fill sell orders. If you want to sell, set a price and leave it. Don't go chasing the manipulators' tail, cause you are gonna get fleeced.
This has nothing to do with fundamentals (strong, btw, look at the average APRs), and everything to do with scare tactics and market manipulations.
You know how to fleece the manipulators? Don't sell. That's how they lose.
And that's not hype, it's the truth, folks.
Do you have proof for this, or just "it went down, and that can't happen unless someone is manipulating!" It's like anti-FUD  The "average APR" argument is BS since there's absolutely no guarantee of current return holding for more than a month or two. The downside risk is enormous. In this instance I agree with velacreations. I've noticed manipulation since 3.4 but didn't say anything due to lack of proof. Just looking at the graph and watching it get weird at 3.4. All of a sudden it was being bought up and followed up very thinly, but not even just thin on the way down, they were trying to hold the spread low to induce more buys, and it was thin on the way up but somehow linear like it was being held. Then on the crash it was right back down to basically where it started. Whether was manipulation or not, it's never been so bad. I dunno, not trying to FUD, just saying I noticed something fishy too. Still bullish on AM and still think it's worth the price, or will be again, when we see blade sales and no competition yet in a couple weeks. |
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again with the market manipulation and scare tactics? guys, just relax, and stop filling buy orders.
Or, sell your shares and write me puts. Premium is 0.32, Strike 3.5, exp ~90 days. That's a better return than you'd get from dividends and unless the share price goes below 3.5 BTC, you're safe. Even if it goes to zero you'll lose less than you would have by holding shares. Plus, a share of AM for 3.5 BTC is cheap, right?  PM me if you want to write puts. NB: For the last 68 pages of this thread nobody ever said "guys, just relax and stop overhyping the stock" It was at 5 and I was saying to stop and cool down a while. I'll say it in your words now though. Guys, just relax and stop overhyping the stock. It's at a good spot right now and not undervalued and shouldn't be hyped. Chill and wait for Friedcat and/or blade sales. |
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well it could "rise" by the % drop vs USD.. but his ratio is 50x. i think that was a mistake
Oh my... I simply cannot comprehend the amount of fail on this page.
You don't understand percentages, superduh?
You think AM is some magical hedge where everyone will take very little return and we will just magically keep it hedged, deadgiveaway?
Off to la la land...dont be afraid of people smarter than you no i dont think AM is a perfect hedge. nothing is. you make a bunch of assumptions that may be true today but not in a couple months. in the future AM will likely pay it's vendors in bitcoins directly. think outside your box. it's an imperfect market but, yes AM hedges against the fall in the USD prices 500% is 5x and it was not a mistake. Oh so very smart you are. |
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well it could "rise" by the % drop vs USD.. but his ratio is 50x. i think that was a mistake
Oh my... I simply cannot comprehend the amount of fail on this page.
You don't understand percentages, superduh?
You think AM is some magical hedge where everyone will take very little return and we will just magically keep it hedged, deadgiveaway?
Off to la la land... |
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they dumped AM to dump BTC to get fiat, coz they know btc is heading for 30, that's why.
that still wouldn't make sense. as long as BTC is worth anything, and there is liquidity, then AM share value against the dollar will sustain. In other words, if BTC drops to 10-15% it's current value, AM should rise at least 500%. Are you on the crack? Sorry if that's offensive but I don't know any more elegant way to express my confusion. I'm sure you're not on crack but I'm confused by this logic because it's illogical. |
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When the shares hit 5BTC per share, somewhere around 17.62% of all Bitcoins in circulation were invested in this one company.
17.62%
That's not true at all. It's far far less. Friedcat holds half the shares, those cost him 0 BTC. Majority of people got in at 0.1 and 2.5, not 5. On the way up the purchases are quite thin because people are hoarding. Meaning it didn't take many bitcoin to move it from 2.5 to 5 while at was walled at 2.5 Something like 3-5% of all bitcoin in circulation. Ok, maybe I wasn't clear. If all of the shares in circulation are assumed to be worth the same, then at 5 BTC per share it would require 17.62% of all the Bitcoins in existence to support that share price. You were clear. You said when one AM share is 5 BTC then 17.62% "were invested" but that is incorrect because that many were not invested to become 5 BTC and it doesn't mean we value it at that much of BTC in circulation because the total BTC of all investment valuations greatly exceeds the total BTC in circulation. That is no different than real life. And as soon as you try and claim all of that value, it slips and adjusts. It's never taken for face value. So is the theory that it would require that many to "support that share price." We discussed this in the main topic already. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2627441#msg2627441https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2626782#msg2626782https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2627210#msg2627210 |
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When the shares hit 5BTC per share, somewhere around 17.62% of all Bitcoins in circulation were invested in this one company.
17.62%
That's not true at all. It's far far less. Friedcat holds half the shares, those cost him 0 BTC. Majority of people got in at 0.1 and 2.5, not 5. On the way up the purchases are quite thin because people are hoarding. Meaning it didn't take many bitcoin to move it from 2.5 to 5 while at was walled at 2.5 Something like 3-5% of all bitcoin in circulation. |
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this week's dividend was 27% higher than last week. I don't know who actually expected a .035 dividend, most of us (including me) have been saying .025. Now, we certainly didn't rule it out going higher, but it's not like it was a disappointment. Still last week's dividend was .018, this week is .023. We went to 5.1 knowing the dividend had been .018. The 120d average is still a ways above 30% APR. We will see what happens, but I think it is quite clear that settling at 4.6 is a bit low, especially with 4.8 on the exchange right now. I find it funny that you are bearish, now, using the same arguments I was when the dividend dropped 2 weeks ago. It's funny how things change...  I'm not bearish. I'm don't fucking move this could go either way-ish until we get news or sales. Read the following quote. You say you expect 5 btc and 0.03. We got 0.022. You say "30% is appropriate rate." We're at 4.5, which is what I also say in the quote, which is 30%. Since then I've been adding word of caution we needed 0.025, which we fell short of the same amount we're up since last week. Read my posts, I haven't been pushing it, and said it should hold back, because even though I thought 0.03-0.04 was a possibility, it could be anything. Why are you pushing 5? Your own calculation doesn't allow for it. Heck, your own calculations below put it at 3.6 BTC. Sigh, when'd you get so bubbly? It's not even justified reasoning, it's just "friedcat will post! it'll go back! buy now!" with some basically outright lie that the last was 4.9 when that was just the ask. I think it'll be at least a few months, when the rest of the ASICs are expected to "catch up," before people trust AM enough for 15% yearly. For now, 4.5-5 is good enough value to hold, and psychological place to hover until it eventually goes to 10 in the long term.
that depends a lot on the dividends. If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably. Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer. At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks. By the way take a look at where we are. 4.4 - 4.6. Well, actually someone just sold into them while I was typing this and we're at 4.25 now. |
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Actually the crash happened exactly after the moment a big dump on Gox happened, so I'm not sure if dividends are to blame for that.
That surely didn't help. Could be both. Amazing dividend would be an incentive not to react to Gox crashing. |
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Nah, no way we're going over 5. We touched base with 5.1 and it wasn't meant to be this week. We're looking at 4.3-4.6 for a while. Awaiting blade sales.
the reasoning behind your target of 4.6 doesn't really hold. Dividend as considerably lower last week, yet we went all the way to 5.1. People were expecting an epic dividend. 0.0035 is "considerably lower"? This week and last week are nearly the same. We went to 5.1 because we didn't know what it would be and it was hyped as being epic. I tried to warn caution that at 5 BTC we should be getting a 0.03 dividend or it's unlikely to stick. Sure, I could be trying to put a bear spin on it so I can pick up cheaper shares. People will have to trust that I am not, and am just trying to speak a bit of reason so we don't increase the volatility even more. That was the largest drop and it's a bit shocking and not desirable to repeat. You said yourself you didn't expect 4.25. That's a 0.92 BTC jump from the high. That's not peanuts and was probably difficult to watch for some people. Yet here you are, saying to "buy it now", "it'll be at 5 BTC in 5 minutes". "It'll settle at 5" then 5 mins later "It'll tell at 4.8" then 5 mins later...?? Someone needs to have a word of caution with bubble boy statements like that. You just paid 4.7 BTC in the direct share auction you won, so you have an interest in not seeing it fall below that until you can get it to a PT. I know the feeling... I breathed a sigh of relief when I lost the bid at 4.6 There's no evidence that friedcat will post for sure. There's no reason to value it above 5 BTC right now. Nothing has changed or given additional incentive. Just a normal dividend. Staying at 5 BTC, as it was for a while, that's fine. Why above? Zzz. Additionally, even if blades are sold on the 10th as mentioned, that won't be part of the next dividend, so we have time to cool off anyway. That said, yall should be happy with 0.022 dividend, or even 0.02, really, no reason to panic IMO. Just hold tight and wait for either friedcat or blade sales. |
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We are working on a news release and the dividend release. I will post an update a little later today.
Thanks,
-Ascension
What happaned ? Dont let me stand on my tippy toes any more ! This. |
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and back up it goes!
better get them fast, boys... it'll be over 5 in a few minutes!
What... no way is it going over 5. We touched base with 5.1 and it wasn't meant to be this week. We're looking at 4.3-4.6 for a while. it just hit 4.9 on BTCT No such trade in the history. Where are you getting that from? Lowest ask doesn't count. Don't be a bubble boy velacreations. |
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How long will it take to hit 5 again? Suggestions?
in about 15 minutes, cause everyone got their dividends and are reinvesting, now. bear trap sprung! Nah, no way we're going over 5. We touched base with 5.1 and it wasn't meant to be this week. We're looking at 4.3-4.6 for a while. Awaiting blade sales. |
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and back up it goes!
better get them fast, boys... it'll be over 5 in a few minutes!
What... no way is it going over 5. We touched base with 5.1 and it wasn't meant to be this week. We're looking at 4.3-4.6 for a while. |
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Let's say every week is 0.022 (current dividend) and the price is 4.25 (current price), the yearly APR is 27%.
However, it's not 0.022 every week, and the average is actually around 0.026 (the last 8 dividends), the yearly APR is 33%.
4.5 brings it to exactly 30% and so I think that's where we'll hover until blade sales in a week or two. 30% has always seemed like the right spot to balance.
Seems like we really wanted a higher dividend like 0.035 this week, and if we got it, were ready for 5. We didn't, so we'll wait at 4.5.
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0.02297025 aint too shabby for USB sales.
Can't wait for blade sales though... when do they start again?
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Thankfully ASICMINER's price and dividends are keeping me level.
I would say price. Dividends are not that great, some other securities may deliver about 10x. May? Which ones do now? 260% APR? I'll jump on that. |
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This is a bubble.
...
Cost of manufacturing heavily outweighs cost of electricity, especially as they move to nextgen. They have proven they can do this very successfully anyway. So Bitfury came up with a working chip. So what? Avalon and BFL have working chips. Where are they? Not shipping at a rate high enough to compete, as you've said, AM has a monopoly, but it's for a reason. You have a substancial amount of puts, and you have 3 months to convince people it's a bubble and try and pop it to reep the benefits of your efforts. Saying it's just us who say it's not a bubble, that is right on par with value (OUR OPINION OF ACCEPTABLE RISK) with ulterior motives is bullshit serving your own motives. |
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Yah I don't care what the div is, I would much rather see this hold at 5 BTC to show some stability before the next rally, or else people live in a constant state of bubble feeling, which is no good for liquidity and good news/plans ATM.
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