ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[nubbins]

Managed to scoop up ~BTC30 worth of discount shares at Havelock early this morning. It pays to be in the right time zone

[circuitry]

Managed to scoop up ~BTC30 worth of discount shares at Havelock early this morning. It pays to be in the right time zone

So much envy. Tried to score some more AM @ 4 a few hours ago and missed the train by minutes. Congratulations on your catch, my friend.

[Lohoris]

As for the unreliable exchange bit: I absolutely think they're unreliable! Seriously, is GLBSE not proof enough?

It doesn't make much sense to compare btct to glbse, for a very simple reason: when I looked at glbse I noticed that they didn't list themselves in their own site, and this was a deal-breaker for me, hence I totally wasn't surprised when it closed down with a "fuck off and die" attitude.
btct instead not only did list itself, but also provides constant backups of the security owners to the issuers, and this is really a good sign.
(it can and should be hugely improved, though)

[stslimited]

oh damn, this was a good trade. I sold most of my AM at 5btc before the dividend. (actually because I was done with AM for the time being, not because I was expecting a selloff)

bought back at 3.63btc after the dividend



my P/L is looking great.

[velacreations]

anyone want to offer a prediction for today?

I'll say this:  if FC makes a statement, we'll see a significant bump, and start the rise back towards 5, maybe taking a few days to get there.

If no update, I think we'll bounce around 4.6-4.8 for a day or so and slowly start climbing again.

[Mabsark]

The change in share price over the past day should be enough to show that AM's share price has nothing to do with the actual value of the company and is entirely dependent upon speculators.

Everyone saying that AM is overpriced is correct, and the volatility of the share price just shows that.

[bobboooiie]

The change in share price over the past day should be enough to show that AM's share price has nothing to do with the actual value of the company and is entirely dependent upon speculators.

Everyone saying that AM is overpriced is correct, and the volatility of the share price just shows that.

Really ? I would say the past day was exactly opposite what you are saying

[Taxidermista]

Is there any decent real time chart for AM shares besides that shit from btctc?

[ThickAsThieves]

Is there any decent real time chart for AM shares besides that shit from btctc?

www.coinflow.co

[Mabsark]

The change in share price over the past day should be enough to show that AM's share price has nothing to do with the actual value of the company and is entirely dependent upon speculators.

Everyone saying that AM is overpriced is correct, and the volatility of the share price just shows that.

Really ? I would say the past day was exactly opposite what you are saying

Given how fast price recovers, you're right. There is strong demand for 4-5 BTC shares.
It's mostly noobs panicking. I wish I had the time (and some meaningful capital) to participate every time!

Demand from who though? Speculators or Investors? If the demand was from investors who think 5 BTC is low, then the share price would be back above 5 BTC now.

So to all you "Investors" that keep claiming 5 BTC is low, why aren't you snapping up all these shares?

[nubbins]

So to all you "Investors" that keep claiming 5 BTC is low, why aren't you snapping up all these shares?

At the risk of being cheeky, they aren't snapping up the shares because they dumped them all at 4.7-4.9 yesterday.

I disagree with your statement that share price won't drop to 4.5 once it passes 5; all I can see are those "hold, spartans!" memes on /r/Bitcoin when BTC/USD was $200+.

I should also mention that I'm not trying to antagonize people by being pessimistic. The "sky's the limit" crowd is a mixture of (a) genuinely optimistic investors, and (b) people trying to keep the price high while they cash out. Devil's advocates are necessary in times like these

Care to take a guess as to the (a):(b) ratio?

[Taxidermista]

Is there any decent real time chart for AM shares besides that shit from btctc?

www.coinflow.co

Thank you! I don't know how to switch to candles but it's a huge improvement anyway.

[helixone]

The change in share price over the past day should be enough to show that AM's share price has nothing to do with the actual value of the company and is entirely dependent upon speculators.

Everyone saying that AM is overpriced is correct, and the volatility of the share price just shows that.

Really ? I would say the past day was exactly opposite what you are saying

Given how fast price recovers, you're right. There is strong demand for 4-5 BTC shares.
It's mostly noobs panicking. I wish I had the time (and some meaningful capital) to participate every time!

The biggest issue really is the lack of liquidity. Only ~10% of the outstanding shares are on exchanges, and share orders are even thinner yet, and spread across 3 exchanges. (Buy or sell).

IE: One could put in a $15,000 buy or sell market order, and move the AM price by over 0.5 btc in either direction, which translates to a $16 million change in market cap!!

This has nothing to do with valuation, or bubbliness, this security is just thinly traded (across multiple exchanges) and market orders have an oversize impact.

We really need market makers providing liquidity as specialists, who are mandated to provide a certain amount of liquidity, NYSE style, but I fear the closest we will ever get is traders posing as MMs ala NASDAQ-style.  Another challenge I think, is the 24 hour nature of these exchanges. Traditional MMs need to sleep, and would never dare leave up open orders, when they aren't actively trading.  Hmm. thinking about it further, I suspect that we do have traders acting as unofficial-MMs during some arbitrary daylight period, but when they sleep the prices are moving like "after hours trading" on a tradition exchange. IE: very volatile.

Bear this in mind, when trading any of these securities, because AM is currently probably one of the most heavily trade bitcoin-assets.

-helixone

[parseval]

Is there any decent real time chart for AM shares besides that shit from btctc?

www.coinflow.co

Thank you! I don't know how to switch to candles but it's a huge improvement anyway.

Candles are on the TODO list

[Smidge]

What a day. I managed to snag some TAT.ASICMINER at 3.5, but my ASICMINER-PT buy order was not filled during the day

What worries me is that Havelock Inv. is still down. I hope they can fully recover from that DDOS...

[helixone]

So to all you "Investors" that keep claiming 5 BTC is low, why aren't you snapping up all these shares?

At the risk of being cheeky, they aren't snapping up the shares because they dumped them all at 4.7-4.9 yesterday.

I disagree with your statement that share price won't drop to 4.5 once it passes 5; all I can see are those "hold, spartans!" memes on /r/Bitcoin when BTC/USD was $200+.

I should also mention that I'm not trying to antagonize people by being pessimistic. The "sky's the limit" crowd is a mixture of (a) genuinely optimistic investors, and (b) people trying to keep the price high while they cash out. Devil's advocates are necessary in times like these

Care to take a guess as to the (a):(b) ratio?

90% of ASICMINER shares aren't even on exchanges. I think the owners of this 90% can largely be presumed to be genuinely optimistic investor types. If we wanted to be overly pessimistic, we could presume that any shares that are moved to an exchange was done so (at some point) for the express purpose of selling them.

So let's call it a 9:1 ratio?

-helixone

[nubbins]

90% of ASICMINER shares aren't even on exchanges.

I read that stat earlier today -- I had no idea. Imagine!

So let's call it a 9:1 ratio?

Let's 

[velacreations]

again with the market manipulation and scare tactics?  guys, just relax, and stop filling buy orders.

[Vycid]

again with the market manipulation and scare tactics?  guys, just relax, and stop filling buy orders.

Or, sell your shares and write me puts. Premium is 0.32, Strike 3.5, exp ~90 days. That's a better return than you'd get from dividends and unless the share price goes below 3.5 BTC, you're safe. Even if it goes to zero you'll lose less than you would have by holding shares.

Plus, a share of AM for 3.5 BTC is cheap, right? 

PM me if you want to write puts.

NB: For the last 68 pages of this thread nobody ever said "guys, just relax and stop overhyping the stock"

[freedomno1]

Well actually just thought about that in reverse now ha-ha
If your all so overhyped do the calls
Premium is 0.32, Strike 4.5, exp ~90 days. That's a better return than you'd get from dividends and unless the share price goes above 5 BTC

^_^ for the rest of the market

But Vycid's are real offers mine are just for show today  
(Assumed dividends avg 0.02 for 13 weeks hehe)