Like this?



or this?



(or are both wrong lol)

Either case would also mean overlap with Jan 15 234 top soon confirming the spike was C rather than III. Although I think 170 bottom is too high in that case, ~130 (or lower) seems more plausible from EW fib ratios.

Hmmh, the drop looks to have impulse structure, at least on Bitstamp. I could of course be wrong (and thus get bear trapped ), but imo this movement doesn't seem very corrective at all.

Same problem. Sent a support ticket last night, to which they replied;


:/ hopefully they'll fix it soon

Well by my counts we have approximately hit the target for an abc since 190 level and I think should be going down at least for now. Although my a could be interpreted as a i, and c as an either underextended or (more likely) unfinished iii (invalidated at breach of 222 and 218 respectively), which could mean we're in C of a larger ABC since bottom levels with a possible target of >260. Also c itself could be unfinished, meaning we have one more small wave up to go (again invalidated at 218 cross).

Bearish divergence between 234 and 239 peaks on 1h MACD (and 222-239 on lower timescales) seems to indicate the uptrend is losing strength, though it is slight so there could be room for yet more up with stacking divs, or they could be invalidated completely. Chessnut at least seems to believe the rise is impulsive altogether and we have reached final bottom, however personally I'm doubtful and think it's wishful thinking heh.

But I am just a noobish sheep, so you'll have to ask someone more well-versed in EW if these counts/interpretations are even valid to begin with

How about a flag?



By my counts at least movements up (and down) have been of corrective structure ever since 152 bottom, which seems to support consolidation scenario here before resumption of bear trend.

Well the rise so far seems corrective so we should have one more down, although given how far up the 4th went I wouldn't be surprised if 5 will be truncated/double bottom.

edit: yup, here we go

Aye, they better get their site up already. If I miss the 5th because of Bitstamp still being down for maintenance I will be a very, very sad sheep

Is this a valid count?



I tried mapping the waves since the rise from 369 with the assumption that it was impulse. However, I could only distinguish 3 waves within the first subwave, and again 3 within the first on one larger fractal, and so figured they are (a) and A respectively and that the rise may in fact be corrective The current top is also fairly consistent with a 1.618 C-wave ratio.

If valid, do you think an (A)(B)(C) (to ~445?) and the formation of a larger triangle since the 454 drop is plausible scenario, or am I overdoing it with the fractals?

(also sorry if the labeling order is off, still trying to get my head around it)

Finally, impulse

Am I doing it right?



Hourly MACD divergence at least seems to support a bottom at 341. Plus the rise from there looks impulsive so far to me.
But I'm just a noobish sheep, so please correct me if I'm wrong!

Noob EW question: At what point does the a-b-c count see invalidation? Crossing of 2420 CNY? Or will that still leave the doors open for a larger b?

Also thank you for this thread. Don't listen to people saying you're impatient, the constant minute charts are a great way of helping me (and others) learn how to map the waves

Out of curiosity, what invalidated this count before price crossed 2377 CNY?

Or are you assuming it will see cross and invalidation soon?

Indeed, I share your (and luc's) sentiment. I refer back to this chart;

So far, we've had a nice bounce off the lower trendline and are heading towards resistance. This is a very large wedge, encompassing the entirety of the post-bubble downtrend, and I feel that a break and validation of the pattern may just provide enough momentum to in turn leave this bear market once and for all.



However we may, as you mention, see a self-similar bear cycle repeat. This scenario would also fit with us breaking the wedge since, as one can see in the below zoomed in chart, the April bottom and subsequent May rise was also marked by divergence + wedge breakout



Thus, in my mind the likeliest way such a scenario will play out is by the formation of yet another, larger fractal wedge (and divergence?)



But of course the problem with patterns of self-similarity is that they're only self-similar until they aren't Either way, this is all long-term speculation, and there'll be plenty of sub-waves to trade until then. In other words; we will cross that bridge when we get to it!

(sorry for wall of charts )

Hmmh, interesting. I have heard tale that the Chinese exchanges all have fake volume and whatnot, although these rumors may be unfounded, or indeed irrelevant.

Looking at CNY data now and current triangle there is in fact more clear. Will have to keep my eye open to see whether signals from Stamp or China tend to lead the market.

edit: added China triangle

I like this one also, more of a clusterfuck

Pardon the shittyshop

 

Don't like the looming prospect of those 30k whale coins though. A sustained dump could invalidate the divergence(s) I think.

No, the vast majority of that volume was by the wall smashing through the orderbook to $300. This is clearly visible on 1m chart (6k BTC in one candle that took price from $306 to $294).



Panic momentum like that does not happen in less than a minute.

This comes in handy yet again it seems



Seriously wtf

Well, it does seem lower scale indicators have caught up, painting a rather bullish (at least short-mid term) picture.