Analysis

[sumantso]

So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.

That is some good news at least.

[jaredboice]

"The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin."

They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets.  Their manipulation techniques are much more limited.  It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin.  Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?

Key word I think is "eventually"... but not yet IMO.

The price of Bitcoin can be influenced by the Fed.

The code (monetary policy / technology) is not so easily influenced.

What you're referring to I think is the code. What I'm referring to is the price.

I hear you on the code.  But I also mean the price.  They are limited in the techniques that they can use to manipulate the price compared with traditional financial assets.  For example, they can't exactly print Bitcoins.

I think you're approaching this from the wrong angle.

You're right, they can't print bitcoin. However, the supply rate of Bitcoin has little influence over price movements. Buying and selling is the main driver of pricing, and buying and selling is driven by perception. So if the perception of high-risk assets is slowly turning negative, it will drive prices lower for bitcoin.

My argument is that the Fed's decisions on USD supply heavily influences the perception of those who buy/sell.  If the Fed says they're going to start reigning in on inflation, market makers will take notice and begin to sell their high-risk investments. That's because those high-risk investments only did well DUE to that inflation.

I see where you're coming from.  But I don't know if we can really be certain that the perception of the Fed's influence on supply is actually moving the market the way that they want us to believe.  For example, Silver smackdowns seem to always take place during these Open Market meetings, yet we know that these price declines due to orchestrated paper selloffs are purely timed to coincide with them for manipulation purposes.  Why would it not be different in any other market where the Fed controls supply?  This is a serious question.

I think your description is just another way of looking at the same thing.  While I agree that if enough people perceive something, price will go in the associated direction.  However, if demand begins to exceeds available supply, price goes up by default.  Isn't this simply because peoples perception changed accordingly with the dwindling supply and increase in demand?

With the silver market this is not so since completely fake prices are thrown into our faces based on paper trades.

[thefiniteidea]

"The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin."

They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets.  Their manipulation techniques are much more limited.  It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin.  Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?

Key word I think is "eventually"... but not yet IMO.

The price of Bitcoin can be influenced by the Fed.

The code (monetary policy / technology) is not so easily influenced.

What you're referring to I think is the code. What I'm referring to is the price.

I hear you on the code.  But I also mean the price.  They are limited in the techniques that they can use to manipulate the price compared with traditional financial assets.  For example, they can't exactly print Bitcoins.

I think you're approaching this from the wrong angle.

You're right, they can't print bitcoin. However, the supply rate of Bitcoin has little influence over price movements. Buying and selling is the main driver of pricing, and buying and selling is driven by perception. So if the perception of high-risk assets is slowly turning negative, it will drive prices lower for bitcoin.

My argument is that the Fed's decisions on USD supply heavily influences the perception of those who buy/sell.  If the Fed says they're going to start reigning in on inflation, market makers will take notice and begin to sell their high-risk investments. That's because those high-risk investments only did well DUE to that inflation.

I see where you're coming from.  But I don't know if we can really be certain that the perception of the Fed's influence on supply is actually moving the market the way that they want us to believe.  For example, Silver smackdowns seem to always take place during these Open Market meetings, yet we know that these price declines due to orchestrated paper selloffs are purely timed to coincide with them for manipulation purposes.  Why would it not be different in any other market where the Fed controls supply?  This is a serious question.

I think your description is just another way of looking at the same thing.  While I agree that if enough people perceive something, price will go in the associated direction.  However, if demand begins to exceeds available supply, price goes up by default.  Isn't this simply because peoples perception changed accordingly with the dwindling supply and increase in demand?

Would you agree that if global equity prices dropped 30%, Bitcoin prices would also be negatively effected? Or do you think Bitcoin is impervious to global capital flows?

[prophetx]

this guy just posted something in his Elliot Waves Analysis thread, worth seeing

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=555289.msg8976473#msg8976473

unfortunately he did not provide much commentary, but in the past he has been very good

"An update to the Elliot Wave count I have posted previously. As long as the previous low for wave ii-(1)-3 at around 390 holds then this count looks good. "

[sumantso]

this guy just posted something in his Elliot Waves Analysis thread, worth seeing

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=555289.msg8976473#msg8976473

unfortunately he did not provide much commentary, but in the past he has been very good

"An update to the Elliot Wave count I have posted previously. As long as the previous low for wave ii-(1)-3 at around 390 holds then this count looks good. "

Transalation: If it doesn't go below 390 over the next few days we are good?

The doom predictions has reached ultimate proportions here. From my Handwaving Analysis, that usually the time it turns. Guessing even if it does well now the long term bear market prediction is still active?

[Void_80]

longterm bear

[everbox]

will fall to 266 ?

[Viceroy]

definitely

[Void_80]

will fall to 266 ?

Exactly . in 2013 

[oda.krell]

[...]

So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.

Still 50/50? Weekly doesn't look good...

[JustAnotherSheep]

[...]

So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.

Still 50/50? Weekly doesn't look good...

Well, it does seem lower scale indicators have caught up, painting a rather bullish (at least short-mid term) picture.

[h3speros]

[...]

So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.

Still 50/50? Weekly doesn't look good...

Well, it does seem lower scale indicators have caught up, painting a rather bullish (at least short-mid term) picture.

[...]

yep, maybe to 400-410 based on fibos from 450 top

EDIT. or maybe we go to daily ma20 once again and then head back down

[masterluc]

I was 50/50 in estimations because of this inverted hammer weekly candle caused by paypal short boom. It usually shows signs of reversal if next candle is bullish. So, if current candle will be bullish - it may be a mid term bottom.



From other side this candle closed below weekly BB -1 deviation. Which was never in history and probably means further accelerated fall.

So I still uncertain, I don't perform any action and sit in cash. I think sitting in cash during bearish trend is best way to save money when I stay unsure. None of my signals shows me green light for bullish or bearish action.

The bearish action I can only perform - is try to catch falling knife (I don't use leverage) - but I don't see support here. The first support I see is 300-340 level where long term -2 VWAP deviation sits ( as i mentioned few pages ago).

[sumantso]

[...]

So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.

Still 50/50? Weekly doesn't look good...

Well, it does seem lower scale indicators have caught up, painting a rather bullish (at least short-mid term) picture.

[...]

yep, maybe to 400-410 based on fibos from 450 top

EDIT. or maybe we go to daily ma20 once again and then head back down

I was 50/50 in estimations because of this inverted hammer weekly candle caused by paypal short boom. It usually shows signs of reversal if next candle is bullish. So, if current candle will be bullish - it may be a mid term bottom.
[...]

So still 50/50; or slightly more bear.

[masterluc]

I don't see any direct signs of reversal or bottoming. Only some indirect. Market reaction on paypal warned me about bearish bias. Need one more week to clear.

[oda.krell]

Thanks for the update, masterluc.

Like the way you describe overall trading strategy ("bearish actions" without shorting, and bottom hunting without support targets) a lot. Food for thought, at least for me.

[sumantso]

I don't see any direct signs of reversal or bottoming. Only some indirect. Market reaction on paypal warned me about bearish bias. Need one more week to clear.

Thanks, thats one of your clearest statements.

Holding tight for a week then.

[Wary]

thats one of your clearest statements.

Good oracle makes no clear statements

Edit: based on 1w MACD histogram, we have 3 months of growth ahead.

[kryptopojken]

Master, please shine your light upon us

[masterluc]

I assume price will not break up bottom BB resistance in two days, so I should say we going down hard. Not really panic I think, but continous downtrend at least until December 2014. With deeps and rips. Volatility returns.

Nearest support at around 300-340.