Been a while since I've updated this. Bitcoin has established 11 doubling floors since 2012 at a starting price of $2.50. This time period probably captures most of the crowd still hanging around WO. Anyone here still hodling pre-$2.50 corn? As a permahodler (vs trader), stable price floors are more interesting to me than ATHs. This last doubling floor, from $2.5k to $5k has taken 639 days, a new record, assuming $5k actually holds this time. Been a long time coming, similar to the doubling floor from $80 to $160, which captured an ATH of $1200 and the subsequent Mt. Gox collapse along the way before finally carrying on. From $160 to $320 took another 315 days. It took a full three doubling floor cycles and solid 3+ years before we finally smashed through that late 2013 ATH with a new $1280 floor in mid 2017. How many days until we are permanently above $10k? And then $20k? The coveted $100k? Hard to predict with the long lookback time required. How many of us thought $5k was safe in the bag at the start of 2018? We've since had a solid 6 months of sub-$5k prices. Hodl on!  |
|
|
|
1m charts have become fun again.  |
|
|
|
 We might close on a 10%+ green dildo today & 20% LTC |
|
|
|
I think we just capitulated in the wrong direction.  |
|
|
|
2014-15 -> 2018-19 Copy/Paste?  |
|
|
|
I don’t think we will see $6k again before 2020.
Agreed it's prudent to watch our hopium intake, Hairy, but 2020 seems awfully long for a return to $6k. Granted, we had a nearly 2-year downturn after Mt Gox from 2014-5 with little to no good news, but as far as fundamentals go, 2019 seems ripe for recovery. What are your assumptions on big ticket items? To name a few expected in the first half of 2019: Van Eck/CBOE ETF (admittedly low chances) Bakkt Fidelity Digital Assets Nasdaq Futures Are you thinking these things won't happen or rather they simply won't make much of a speculative difference? Are you weighing your prediction primarily on prior halving cycles? Are you correlating with global stock market expectations? I worry that speculative interest is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy of chart analysis and pattern matching. The 2014 overlay to 2018 is eerily similar, yes, but is this simply a case of humans seeking solace in pattern matching? Meanwhile, the lightning network is exponentially expanding, BCash is conveniently self-immolating, blockchain investment and employment numbers are steadily increasing, etc etc. Sure, miners seem SOL, nothing new there; but I suspect new miners will find new places to slurp up cheap/stranded power, further decentralizing the network. |
|
|
|
Not sure if this was already posted, please don't kill the messenger as i don't agree with lots of these points. However, this shows where institutional investors (aka hedgies) are on this. https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1068573163670261760In short: institutionals are shell-shocked and bewildered. My take home message from this particular tweetstorm: small size institutional money will not participate from now on. TL;DR she predicts that, similarly to how internet happened, blockchain will eat the world, but somehow traditional players (Fidelity, Paypal, etc) would be the winners and we would be the losers. I disagree, obviously. Key takeaway for Institutions, Bitmain, Forkers, etc: Bitcoin cannot be owned. Bitcoin will own you before you own Bitcoin. I'm referring to Bitcoin with a capital B. The protocol and network. Not bitcoin the currency. Of course you own your private keys. |
|
|
|
Bitcoin, putting the 'numb' in numbers since 2009. |
|
|
|
|
I'm really tempted to sell all my bitcoin just so I can buy bitcoin at these prices.
|
|
|
|
Talking heads, so many talking heads. More optimism than I expected from the peanut gallery. Time To Buy Bitcoin?Cointelegraph talks to Tom Lee, Mati Greenspan, Naeem Aslam and Ronnie Moas about why it makes sense to buy Bitcoin when everyone else is panic selling it. https://youtu.be/rKKMVBX7rYgDecent round robin. If you can stomach CNBC anchors, a few gems slip out when their guests can get a word in edgewise: I am still a long-term bitcoin believer, says the Crypto KingBitcoin gets slammed as the crypto carnage rages on. But Bart Smith, Susquehanna Digital Asset Head, says he's still a believer. https://youtu.be/OMV1xXEoD8gHigh net worth investors are not going to send photo id scans and money to random crypto website. Interest is piqued, but they are waiting for Fidelity, etc. Tom Lee cuts bitcoin year-end target to $15,000Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the bitcoin fallout and where he sees it going next. https://youtu.be/Y-pX6GbRbwcBitcoin clearing 3X more on daily basis than PayPal, market caps about the same. Bitcoin is a currency, no it's a commodity, no it's a store of value, no it's an emerging asset class. Bitcoin won't have bottomed until 3K flat level, says Genesis Trading's MoroMichael Moro of Genesis Trading and Genesis Capital joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the price drop in bitcoin. https://youtu.be/L5FbbVT98ZwAre crypto alts/forks disrupting perceived scarcity? Bitcoin was anti-correlated, but is now correlating to broader markets as institutional funds seep in. Fire that CNBC idiot and just let the guest talk for crying out loud. Bitcoin is at the end of a distress cycle, says BlockTowerMichael Bucella, BlockTower Capital Partnershttps://youtu.be/QUbtkMr7QBoBottom most volatile but also shortest period. Professional management may reduce volatility. (Ha!) |
|
|
|
|
This current fiasco is certainly underlining what a rich man’s game BTC has become.
Retail exchange volume has been dying all year:
Perhaps in part to the psychological barrier of a perceived high entry cost. Small time traders once willing to buy when bitcoin when it was a couple hundred bucks now seem to be balking at $5000, and that’s on sale! Maybe fractions of a Bitcoin just aren’t sexy enough.
Certainly this is also due in part to the shitastic quality of retail exchanges, from frustratingly inept (Coinbase) to down right shady (take your pick).
Meanwhile, institutions have been “scrambling” in typical slow-motion fashion to jump on board, either as service/product providers or investors. We know a great deal of Bitcoin has been exchanging hands OTC, for lack of a single decent institutional exchange. I suspect OTC volumes in 2018 have dwarfed exchange liquidity. But come 2019, this may be changing. Fidelity, Bakkt, perhaps an ETF or two may be entering the scene. Too little too late or just in time, it’s hard to say, but some sort of credible institutional exchange should be well positioned before the next halvening in 2020.
Which makes this current fiasco feel like one of the last gasp attempts for these JihanVerWright dickwads to have much of an influence on BTC price at all. Just imagine all the current retail and OTC volume combined with hopefully even more mainstream institutional investors jumping on board for the first time in large mega-exchanges the likes of Fidelity or Bakkt. How could they possibly compete?
A year from now or less, these wannabe tyrants and their petty forkery and overt (illegal, even?) price manipulation will be irrelevant.
But then again, so may be all interest in crypto, for all the negative attention these shenanigans are bringing.
|
|
|
|
5264 LFC_Bitcoin  if i'm right then this is the closest to it5420 mfort312 UPDATE in times of bottom warsHot damn I was close! Here’s to hoping LFC wins it, because that’s the last name I want see on this list. |
|
|
|
|
I propose we tokenize our digital hatsets, and trade them as scarce commodities.
|
|
|
|
$7258 Wishing for higher but if not, maybe I win a micprize. Happy to lose if it’s higher! |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
