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41  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: October 11, 2018, 08:44:55 PM
I wish he had someone who could explain things to the layman, because it would be much easier. His if-then short term calls do well- often the kind where 'if the market closes above/below X by Y time then we will do this". They don't come too often though.
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Did you watch the WEC 2016 Arrays & Reversals workshop (@ 2 hours) https://vimeo.com/198896912? 
You may find it helpful, although I feel you have a pretty good grasp already.

Is this finally the Slingshot move?!
42  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: October 11, 2018, 02:37:19 AM
When his movie comes out it'll tell the story.. that is if it's not banned in your location.

The movie will be FACTUAL because :
'First, you have to understand for them to do such a movie, they have to get insurance to cover any lawsuit claims. Everything in that movie had to be presented to Lyods of London to prove that all statements could be proven in a court in order to even get such insurance. They had to investigate the claims in detail on both sides or such a film would never be made. It was funded by the German TV station.'

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/the-forecaster/gag-orders-cover-ups/

'When it became clear that the receiver was trying to paint me as a rogue trader who conspired with the bank’s own people against my own clients, that would have allowed the bank to keep all the money. So I did an interview with the Japanese press and told all my clients to come to New York and file suits against the bank. They did. I met with their lead lawyer and I agreed to help them and testify against the bank. The bankers ran to the government and they escorted them into my case and placed a lifetime gag order on me to prevent me from helping my clients against the bankers. No lawyer I know of has EVER heard of such a gag order. This single action demonstrates that there is no rule of law in New York and you will NEVER win a lawsuit against a New York bank – PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Republic/HSBC pleaded guilty and had to pay $640 million because they simply took the money.
As for my plea, they would not drop the charges and Richard Owens said to my face he knew I did not take any money. Obvious! You either write a check or you wire it out. You cannot yet beam it out like Star Trek.'
43  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: October 10, 2018, 09:58:46 PM
re long term forecasting I found these:

from 2014 on the DOW: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/dow-confusion/
'we still see the two primary targets for highs on this run in the 26000 area followed by 43000 area. The latter would have been a Sling Shot Move now for a high in 2015.75. We are still in a position to see that level but it would appear more-likely-than-not to be the 2017-2018 time period.
This is a question of TIME more so than price. ..The rally will come when the fresh crowd all start to buy once again. That becomes the question as to how high is high. It is starting look like the 43000 number more so than just the 26000 level. We need more price action to confirm that outcome'
- note these forecasts all depend upon the TIME factor i.e. using the Arrays and Reversals together. If they don't hit/come together then you wait for the next cycle/Time and Price to come together for the forecast to become fact.

from Jan 2015 re Bonds: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-bond-bubble-confirmed/
'This 2015.75 turn should be the start of BIG BANG and this should be a market with the low in interest rates that ferments the peak in the bond bubble'
- note he doesn't say in January that there will be a crash 8 months later on that exact date 2015.75..he says it's the start that 'ferments' the peak in bonds - that fermented (think bubbly) peak came to fruition nearly a year later in July 2016 and has been heading on a southwards trend ever since.

A bit more on Time and Price coming together in relation to Gold from 2013 - he forecast the low should be 2015 if Time and Price come together:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/time-price/
'as far as the low is concerned, the price can be between 1050 and 850. It is more WHEN the price is reached rather than the express actual number. BOTH have to be achieved. If we saw $950 tomorrow, sorry, that would not be the low because the time is not right.'
44  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: October 08, 2018, 10:28:36 PM
I found this video of the 2016 WEC to be very helpful.  https://vimeo.com/198896912
In the 2nd part, Erwin Pletsch outlines how to use the Reversals and Arrays.  You also have to read Models & Methodologies (see the website) in tandem with the video to get to grips with how to forecast.  I understand why he gets Erwin to do the workshop - holding a 48hr event like this must be hard work for someone like Armstrong who is in his late 60s - spread the load and Erwin has been around Socrates since the 80s, so he knows it inside out. 

MA did forecast at the 2016 WEC that the DOW would enter a Phase Transition and rise for the next 2 years into 2018 as long as it elected the Monthly Bullish 18,625 which it did at the end of November 2016 : https://vimeo.com/198896912 - (listen at 2 hours+50mins & 3 hours+25mins).

I also urge you to watch The Forecaster on vimeo (like $5).  I met his good friend Larry Edelson back in 2015 when he was doing a Q&A at the documentary screening where i live.  In the bar afterwards he said that Armstrong sleeps only 4hrs at a time (and I guess possibly naps during the day) and is up late writing..the blog is free and I think he does it during these dark hours, hence the spelling, punctuation etc...chronological order would be amazing but I doubt he has the time to do this. 
I'm under the assumption that his bread and butter comes from advising major institutions etc and that he cannot personally trade as this would mean he's conflicted.

Here is one of the latest podcasts from 25 September..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr9PPaVAkZ4

I personally don't trade but try to invest long term with the trend - so far he has been spot on regarding longterm forecasts.. as Erwin says, day and week trading there is too much 'noise'. 
45  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: October 08, 2018, 12:21:38 AM
I was under the impression that highs/lows sync with the Reversals. So if a Reversal is elected, then the opposite move should be small. Because if they were price levels, then what would the point of the Reversals even be? This is also referring to one of his 'running out of time' trades, where, if the Reversal is not elected, then the price must turn all the way back. For example, If a Bullish Reversal is elected, then support moves up. Assuming support it holds, that price should be exceeded on the upside. Armstrong also said that the Dow elected the Bullish Reversal while the Nasdaq did not, reflecting capital flow change into large cap companies. After analyzing various companies, I bought some XLV and XLI ETFs today. They have recently outperformed, and I expect this trend to continue. We'll see.

His forecasts, as he admits, are not set in stone. He gives possibilities. Eg the peak can happen in either 2032 or 2022 (as far as I know). If X happens, then Y, but if not, then if A, then B. Who knows. A lot of what he says is like that. Even so, he has given specific forecasts (a close below X today means we will his support, closing even lower at Y means it will happen this week, etc.) Again, I cannot speak for him over the years, but he has specifically stated that going above the September high this month means new highs in November. So we need the Dow to make a high in November for him to be right.

In previous articles Armstrong says the 8.6 year US Share Market cycle last fell on 1st Oct 2017. 8.6 yrs after this date is Jan 28/29 2022.  Could that be the high?  Socrates sometimes outlines 2022 as an important date for the DOW.
Using his cycle calculation within that 8.6y period starting from 1 Oct 2017, the next TIME target for the US Share Market is next month 7 Nov 2018..also the 21/22 Nov 2018 is a peak date for the ECM (which is the economic confidence model for the whole world).  Worth keeping an eye on 7 Nov 2018 perhaps?!
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