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41  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: May 13, 2024, 09:45:53 AM
I also noticed that their broadcasting was not up to standard. I couldn't see their players while doing finding in straight position  and there is some error in the position where the cameras need to be held. After all this series has still created great interest among cricket lovers. Because Ireland beat Pakistan in T20 match. If Ireland win the toss and decide to field in the final T20 match, they can have a chance to win the series. Although the probability of that happening is very low, it can happen. Because their batting standard has improved enough. I would call Pakistan's sudden loss in the first match an accident because the pitch conditions in Asia and the conditions in Europe will not be the same.

Ireland so far has done a good job in this series and that's why the series is alive till last T20I. Before this series everyone was predicting an easy win for Pakistan but Ireland proved it wrong. Not good sign for Pakistan as they had a series draw against NZ second-tier team. Ireland has also qualified for T20 world cup and there performance against Pakistan has given a clear signal that they will be giving tough time to opponents.   
42  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: May 13, 2024, 06:30:24 AM
You can also see that in that fuck you status chart, I attempt to project out the increase in the 200-WMA until 2074 - and surely I am projecting out a diminishing rate of increase, yet with anything related to the future, there can be factors that contribute towards the results playing out differently from the projection... including ongoing concerns that many of us might have in the direction of the various ongoing attacks related to bitcoin self-custody.. .which from my perspective is likely to create a lot of scoff law and underground operations - which would not be so bullish in regards to bitcoin's short-to-medium term price.

It's fine since you are predicting future 200-WMA and we are not sure about the exact value so it's better to predict it at diminishing rate of increase. The way bitcoin value is going up and people investing in it, it's very much likely that regulators will take action against self-custody or anything that is not visible to them.
As discussed earlier, ETF provides a way to many giants out there to get taste of Bitcoin without violating the regulations. Since they can't go for self-custody because of regulatory compliance issue.
The more popular Bitcoin will become, more rude will be attitude of regulators toward Bitcoin.
43  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: May 13, 2024, 06:04:41 AM
Pakistan won the match quite comfortably. And they should actually thank Irish fielders for giving them chances. Graham Hume dropped both Mohammad Rizwan and Fakhar Zaman during initial overs, and on both occasions it was relatively easy opportunities. Both Zaman and Rizwan made use of it and went on to build a mammoth third wicket partnership. By the time Zaman got out to Ben White, it was all over for Ireland. Now the series is tied 1-1 and the last match will decide who will win the series.


Ireland should improve there broadcasting standards, there is no fun in watching these matches on TV. The cameras and commentary is no way near to international standards.
If Ireland can improve there fielding and not repeat mistakes in third T20I then they have bright chance of winning the series. Even if they lose there success is that they won a T20 game and make Pakistan work hard to win the series.
44  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: May 12, 2024, 05:57:46 PM
Pakistan had a disappointing start in this today's match. Seeing their performance, there was a feeling that they would lose in this match as well. But from that situation, Pakistan is in a slightly better place. The team collected 125 runs for the loss of just 2 wickets and to reach the target they need 65 runs from 43 balls which is not a difficult equation. However, there were concerns about how Pakistan performed in the first match, by which fans feeling quite disappointed about the match. A better performance is expected from Pakistan team. The Ireland team is performing brilliantly, I never imagined they would perform so well consistently.

After giving too many runs in bowling, Pakistani batsmen have done a good job. Pakistan need 22 more runs in last 4 overs. Rizwan has played exceptionally well today along with Fakhar Zaman. With this win Pakistan will level the series and last match will decide the winner of this series. Rizwan is not out on 78 runs and today he consumed very little balls for this inning.
45  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: May 12, 2024, 11:56:36 AM
Of course, over the years, there have been various spikes of the BTC spot price below the 200-WMA that were short-lived, yet the period of June 2022 to October 2023 had several times in which the BTC price was quite a bit below the 200-WMA, yet the 200-WMA did continue to move up during that period at an annual rate of about 20%.  You can look at the specific differences between the BTC spot price and the 200-WMA on any particular date at this website.

From June 2022 to October 2023 price of Bitcoin remain mostly under 25k and it went down to low value of 16k. From this price window one can easily figure out that why it's ideal time to buy when spot price is below 200-WMA.

https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy this is the only tool I use to figure out relation of spot price and 200-WMA. You are correct in saying that from June 2022 to October 2023 200-WMA keep moving up as evident from the 200-WMA graph there.

Spot Price vs 200-WMA from June 2022 to October 2023

I am just providing my own base case scenario, so of course, I would not suggest that my base case scenario is anywhere close to guaranteed, but I am thinking that the base case scenario of the BTC spot price staying above the 200-WMA for the next 18 months is the most likely out of any of the possible scenarios based on facts currently known... ... and sure of course price trends can change suddenly and maybe even for little to no reason, and also there can be irrational spikes and black swan events that end up invalidating the base case scenario that I am currently anticipating.

Right now bitcoin spot price is 60k and 200-WMA is standing at 34k. So if there is no drastic decline in Bitcoin price then chances are that spot price will stay above 200-WMA for quite a while. 
46  Local / Other languages/locations / Re: Pakistan on: May 12, 2024, 11:25:13 AM
Ajj dosra match ha Ireland ka sath Pakistan team ka or is match ma Muhammad amir bi khaly ga ik bat kho Babar azam apny favourite players ko team ma rakhta ha jasy Muhammad Rizwan ki bat ki apny iska strike rate thora kam hai but wo ik acha players ha wicket ko sambhal kar rakhta ha is series ma Muhammad rizwan ki jagha Azam khan wicketkeeper bastem khayel raha hai jo pichly match ma zero score par out hu gya tha kasi match ma performance ni di ot team ma select hu raha Muhammad Haris ko team sy nikala hova ha ya team safarishi hai world cup ma boht busa haal hubga

Muhammad Rizwan wicket rok kr rakhta hy aur uska naqsoon ya hota hy ka akhr overs ma batsmen pr both pressure hota hy hitting ka kyunka runs hota nhi aur balls thori reh jati hn. Muhammad Rizwan ke innings dekh lyn wo hr match ma almost 100 ka strike rate sa khelta hy jabka T20 ma 150 ka strike rate required hota hy acha target ka lea.

Babar Azam ke Jo adat hai bahi Pakistan me har jaga asa he hota hai government level Sy le kar private level par , tab to log bahir ke taraf rajonkarty hain .

Match ke bat ke jy bahi agar ap Kaho k Pakistan batting me ashi prefromance karien ye bhot mushkil hai Pakistan agar kis b match me Jeet ansal karta hai to wo seraf apnie bowling par ab dekh lien 182 run Kam nhi hai bass agar ye bowling me kush ashi prefromance karty to Ireland 100 tak b nhi ponch Sakta tha mujy lagta hai Shaheen Afridi khatam hogaya hai ab us ka interest nhi raha cricket me bass famous honie  ke waja Sy log is k fan .

Ya baat aki 100% dursat hy ka hmara culture hy ka jo bnda acha lagya ga usko agya lyn gy. Jo log bahr ja rhya hn wo acha kr rhya hn kam az kam unki life to set ho jya gi.
Shaheen Shah ko uska Susar na tabah kea hy. Captaincy ka chakr ma daal kr. Shaheen abhi boht young hy usko chahya tha ka bowling py focus krna takya wo lamba arsa tk team ka lea khelta rhya.
47  Local / Other languages/locations / Re: Pakistan on: May 12, 2024, 09:32:36 AM
bhai ma still shock ma hu Kh kas trah Pakistan matct har gya ik kamzor team ka khalif agr asy he cricket khalni ha Pakistan ny phr to Allah he hafiz ha humri team stadium ki the jo condition the os say zadya Buri conditions pakistan team ki hovi ha waha wasy bohat afsoos ki bat hai kah international stadium ma na proper camera ka intzam tha na he koi commentary ka system tha khair Ireland ka players ko shabash banti ha is trah ka mahool ka bawjod inhy nay pakistan team ko ik buri 5 wickets sy shikast di hai

Babar Azam ke ya adat hy k wo team me performance base pr selection nhi krta balka jo uska zayda qareebi dost hota hn unko team ma rekhta hy. Muhammad Rizwan ka case he dekh lyn uska strike rate T20 ka hisab sa boht kam hy aur kafi tanqeeb hoti hy ka ya boht balls waste krta hy pr Babar Azam usko team ma hr halat ma rekhta hy. Ab agr Pakistan Ireland sa nhi jeet saqta to phr world cup ma top ke teams jaisa ka Australia, England aur India hn un sa kaisa jeeta ga. 
48  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: May 12, 2024, 07:12:26 AM
Bangladesh Vs Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe after winning the toss gave bangladesh team to batting fisrt Bangladesh made 157/6 in 20 overs. After the first three wickets of Ban team gone quickly it looked like they would be able to score maximum 120 runs but after that Mahmudullah and Najmul Hossain came on the crease and took responsibility and played very smart innings. they made 69 runs partnership which gave a new hope to ban team and they set a good total of 157 runs Mahmudullah make fifty while shakib and Jaker Ali also contributed to gave target of 158 runs now their bowlers should need to perform very well to white wished Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe looking good in 5th T20I to avoid whitewash. It's a terrible T20I series for Zimbabwe as they have lost all 4 games so far. There is 75 runs partnership between Sikandar Raza and  Brian Bennett that put Zimbabwe in control of the match. If Zimbabwe team has shown such performance in earlier games the results would be very different. Zimbabwe team is very much dependent on Raza and this is something they must have got rid of as quickly as possible.
49  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod] on: May 11, 2024, 06:30:22 PM
He's a legend and we won't witness this sort of longevity from any fast bowlers but IMO he should've retired during the last Ashes. He was a big disappointment in the Ashes and that too on home turf.

The Indian tour wasn't good either and felt like a big letdown. Against 2 strong opponents (Aus and Ind), he picked only 15 wickets in the last 8 matches.

He restricted himself to test format only as he played his last ODI in 2015 and last T20I in 2009. I think he recognizes that he is no more suitable for international cricket and its right time to leave cricket before selectors dropped him for the squad. His last 2 tours might not be big success but he has a 21 years career that is full of success. Let's give him a good farewell on his retirement.
50  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod] on: May 11, 2024, 01:05:56 PM
James Anderson has announced retirement after Lords test against West Indies. He has a career of 21 years in which he has played 187 test and picked 700 wickets which is highest wickets by any pacer. He is very close to 42 years and it's good time for him to say good bye to international cricket. Only Sachin has played more test then James Anderson, this shows the level of fitness James Anderson has maintained over period of time.
51  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: May 11, 2024, 11:37:37 AM
Ireland are up by 1-0 in their T20I series against Pakistan, and tomorrow these two teams will be facing off each other at the Castle Avenue Stadium in Dublin. Despite the absence of Josh Little, Ireland managed to put up a strong performance in their first match, and it was their first ever win against Pakistan in a T20I match. If they win at least one of the remaining matches, then they will get a rare series win against one of the Tier-1 full member nations, and it will be a huge boost ahead of the T20I world cup.

Ireland stunned Pakistan first time in 2007 ODI world cup and now after a gap of 17 years they got a win in T20I also. This is a three match series so defiantly Ireland have an edge over Pakistan now. Ireland might be without its few main players but Pakistan is playing this series with all major players and its disappointing to see a loss in opening T20I. Pakistan need to work hard in upcoming matches to avoid a series loss.
52  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: May 11, 2024, 07:14:26 AM
Ireland was very strong against Pakistan in yesterday's match at their home ground. In the first T20 match between Pakistan and Ireland, no one could have imagined that the Pakistan team would be defeated by Ireland so miserably. In the match between these two teams, the Pakistan team batted first and collected 182 runs for 6 wickets in the allotted twenty overs, this run is enough to fight in the T20 format. Coming down to bat against the target given by Pakistan, Ireland team's opening batsman Andre Balburni started aggressive batting even he collected 77 runs from 55 balls. All in all, the performance of all Ireland players in yesterday's match was worth watching due to which their team was able to easily win against a strong team like Pakistan and even advanced in the series.

Pakistani batsmen got enough runs but it's the bowling that failed to defend that target. Shadab gave 54 runs in his 4 overs and despite that he was giving runs he is not replaced with some other bowler. Still two more games to be played after that and Pakistan need to win both to win series. Seeing the form of Ireland it won't be easy for Pakistan to win both upcoming matches.
53  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: May 11, 2024, 05:11:23 AM
The Pakistan team has made too many slow starts and they can do much better but it was also good. Pakistan's middle order is getting stronger while its top order is getting low in performance and they have to maintain both things as we have seen when the people were talking about Pakistan’s middle order then they started to work on just the middle order. This started to underestimate the top order but hope that before the World Cup, they are fully prepared for that and take over after taking the World Cup from there.

Now, the Pakistan team have no route to go back in Pakistan and they have to lift themselves despite having a tough series with New Zealand and not this poor match performance where they lost to the Ireland team. I know that Pakistan team has good talent but they will keep on playing some bad matches in between the good ones.

Pakistan team has left the country to play World Cup and before that they will play T20 series against Ireland and England. Pakistan must have made changes in the squad to replace slow batsmen like Muhammad Rizwan but there is no more time left to make changes. T20 is unpredictable format and despite poor form Pakistan can do surprises in upcoming world Cup.
54  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Indian Premier League #IPL Cricket on: May 10, 2024, 06:53:07 PM
Gujarat Titans posted the target of 232 runs to Chennai super kings what an excellent innings played by Shubman Gill of 104 runs while Sai Sudharsan also make century both of players  scored 210 runs partnership which put high pressure on opposite team. Chennai  team failed to chased th total and made only 196/8. CSK lost their first three wickets very early after that Daryl Mitchell and moeen Ali stable on the crease and made hundred runs partnership but unluckily to won the match. after they gone no players played fast innings and on last few overs to much score needed which causes lost. Gujarat team won this game by 35 runs.

Despite this win GT have very low chances of making it to next round. Look at the strike rate of Sai Sudharsan and Gill, they both scored centuries with strike rate of around 200. CSK bowlers have no clue of where to bowl today, they only picked 2 wickets today. In reply to GT 231, CSK have a terrible start as they lost 3 wickets in first 3 overs. This loss will definitely had a negative impact on CSK chances of playing next round.
55  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: May 10, 2024, 06:28:44 PM
Cricket is a game of uncertainty as a strong team can be defeated at any time. Pakistan team needed to play more aggressively. They scored almost 32 runs in the last 2nd over with a devastating performance. If they could have played like this from 2 more overs earlier then Pakistan team had a chance to win the match. A few more runs would have keep Ireland under pressure. Although this was the first match. I think Pakistan will be able to completely turn around from the 2nd match. It is not unusual for them to lose first match to set themselves on new pitch. But we have to praise Ireland team who gave such a good match. Looking at their performance today, it seems that they have become quite strong in T20 cricket. Because 182 is not a small score and winning against a good team like Pakistan is not an ordinary winning.

The problem with Pakistan is slow scoring rate from top order batsmen like babar and Rizwan. Today Babar Azam consumed 43 balls for his 57 runs innings. Players like Azam Khan are purely selected on nepotism basis. If Pakistan can't beat a team like Ireland then how can they beat top teams in T20 World Cup. Impressive batting from Andy Balbirnie today his 77 runs gave Ireland a foundation to chase the target.
56  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: May 10, 2024, 02:30:55 PM
The toss was done and Ireland won the toss and they chose to field first which I think it’s a good idea because the Pakistan bowlers can be able to out them for less score but when Pakistan was batting first they hoped that Ireland understood in the first overs that they cannot win this match.

Also, Muhammad Amir is not playing this because he didn’t get a visa for Ireland (he will get visa & be available for next two t20 matches) but I think that in the first match, they have to give a chance to Haris Rauf but for the next matches, they give a chance to him for sure because he came after injury and have to test him.

Muhammad Haris is also a good option in T20 instead of Rizwan but due to Muhammad Rizwan good ties with Babar Azam he is included in T20 squad despite having low scoring rate. After 4 overs Pakistan scored is 21 and they have lost wicket of Muhammad Rizwan. Azam Khan who has scored 29 runs in 7 innings is once again included in the squad just because he is son of ex-Pakistani wicket keeper Moin Khan.
57  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: May 10, 2024, 04:05:46 AM
Well.. it is T20 format and therefore you can't really rule out any team. Ireland are now a shadow of their former self, but even then they have high quality players such as Paul Stirling, Mark Adair, Andy Balbirnie, Harry Tector and Lorcan Tucker. The absence of Josh Little is going to hurt them, but they have quality pacers in the form of Craig White and Barry McCarthy to cover his absence. The match will take place at Castle Avenue in Dublin, so Ireland will have the home advantage as well.

Pakistan recently had a draw T20 series against NZ team which is without its main players. So we can expect some surprises from Ireland also. T20 World Cup is coming up and Pakistan have to face Ireland and England before that. Pakistan should test its new players against Ireland so that they can be trained as backup of main players. Going full strength against Ireland and winning won't be a great idea.
58  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Indian Premier League #IPL Cricket on: May 10, 2024, 04:00:07 AM
Today we have the match between Gujarat Titans and Chennai Super Kings at Ahmedabad. GT has near zero chance of qualifying to the playoffs, and therefore the outcome of this match is mainly important for CSK. But then CSK is suffering from multiple injury issues. All three of their frontline pacers - Deepak Chahar, Mustafizur Rahman and Matheesha Pathirana are doubtful for today's match. At the same time, GT is also suffering from injury to Mohammed Shami. Richard Gleeson will be included in the CSK squad, along with Mitchell Santner.

GT now have three games left and with 8 points they are sitting on bottom of points table. If they win all remaining three matches  it will be difficult for them to make it to next round. What has surprised everyone is RCB performance with 4 consecutive wins. RCB has two more games to be played and its also difficult for them to qualify for next round even if they win there two games.
59  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: May 06, 2024, 05:51:26 PM

So far in bitcoin's history, it has ONLY gone down below the 200-WMA the one time (between June 2022 and October 2023), at least for sustainable periods of time, so there surely may well be quite a bit of value to buy all the way down, because you cannot really know how far the BTC price is going to correct back down or how close it might get to the 200-WMA or if it might go below the 200-WMA again.

My tentative current expectation is that the BTC price will not go below 20% above the 200-WMA for the next 18 months or so, and sure I could be wrong in that expectation, but that is currently how I am considering the matter, absent some facts changing, and there have been so many times that I have been wrong in various tentative expectations that I have in regards to bitcoin's price movement - and so in that sense I don't make any kinds of meaningful changes in my own strategies, and/or BIG bets based on various tentative expectations that I form from time to time.

Thanks for pointing out that only once so far we have seen Bitcoin spot price going down below 200-WMA. In September 2015, BTC price and 200-WMA came close of each other but still spot price remain ahead.
Of course we can speculate about what lies ahead as nobody is sure about price of Bitcoin. Right now there is so much gap between Bitcoin spot price and 200-WMA that you can safely predict that the BTC price will not go below 20% above the 200-WMA for the next 18 months or so
60  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Indian Premier League #IPL Cricket on: May 06, 2024, 05:32:02 PM
Not at all like that.No team wants to lose, maybe today Sunrise Hyderabad team's bowling started badly but now their team bowlers are bowling well. Sunrisers Hyderabad's bowling has already managed to take three wickets from the Mumbai Indians team, which includes two of Mumbai's opening batsmen. In today's match, Sunrisers Hyderabad batted first and collected very few runs against Mumbai Indians, due to which it seems that SRH team may lose this match today. I think it is very necessary for Mumbai Indians to win this match because they have lost many matches and lost many points. Simple equation for Mumbai Indians in today's match they need 95 runs from 72 balls to go maybe it will be easy for them if they can save wickets.

MI are sitting on very last position on points table and a win today will change there position on points table for sure. Odds right now are very much in favour of MI teams as they need 46 runs in 36 balls with 7 wickets in hand. SRH were not good with bat today, Travis Head and Pat Cummins are the only one who showed some aggression with bat. MI bowlers had a good day today as they are successful in restricting SRH to low total.

 
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