Finex has been pulling at the reins all day, but China holding back... at least the 5k wall on Huobi was eaten, hopefully we can go up now.  It's a very interesting tug of war, but it's painfully obvious who's pulling the strings...

The rampant market pessimism (believe it or not) right now is a beautiful thing, it's actually the key ingredient to propel us past the ATH.

Every other post on this forum is something to the effect of "well, this is nice, but there's no way it can go past 500 600 650, I suspect it will top out around 700 by the halving, blah blah grumble grumble"

This is because the bear market has lasted long enough that most current users of BTC were not around in 2013 or earlier, and don't have a clue about the psychological effects of an exponential rally.

These are the exact people, with the kind of mindset portrayed in this thread, who will panic buy when the price goes shooting past their conservative target and continue to propel it upward.  Maybe not Mat because he's too stubborn to try to make even a small amount of money.

The gears are in motion, there won't be a red week until at the earliest 4 weeks from now.  Even a relatively small rally like October last year puts up 6-7 weeks in the green.  If you look at the first 3 weeks of this rally it crushes 2013, let alone late 2015.  In the next 4 weeks you will see an almost unprecedented level of panic buying.  Good luck in whatever you decide to do, Mat.

He said NOT 

Is it time to start thinking about how we're going to call the top?  Even long-term holders might be well advised to learn how to identify it and sell some BTC to capitalize on the following downswing.

1. Looking back at the previous bull runs, it looks like we can expect to be strongly in the green for about 6-7 weeks.

2. The rallies tend to culminate in the price doubling within 7-10 days.

So, assuming this is one of the serious bull runs, I'd say if we've been in the green for at least 6 weeks, AND the price doubles within 7-10 days, it's reasonable to assume we've reached the top or close to it.  From there, expect at LEAST a 62% drop before buying back in if you're trading it.

It looks like the triangle is a good bet for China though the West may make more of a zig-zag. 
Was about 4700 what you had in mind for "4k +"?  That seems like the next target and the minimum reasonable top for this whole rally (about $715).

$2500 peak, $1200 stable.

Shhhh

I like this thread but it's getting a little tedious... I can't even tell what trades you're actually taking anymore.  The charts are getting more and more incoherent.  Just because you can draw a line between two points at any given time doesn't make it useful TA.

There's a time for dicking around with nickels and dimes and there's a time to take a medium-term position and maximize profits.  Just zoom out to a weekly time frame and try to identify what situation we're in now.
If you had just bought at $465 like most of us did, when it was abundantly clear that we were breaking up from a massive period of consolidation, then you wouldn't be biting your nails for every $10 swing.  Even at $500 or 3300 CNY would have been a good spot to buy. 

It has nothing to do with believing in Bitcoin, you don't have to.  You just have to be able to identify a money making opportunity on a scale that is rarely seen anywhere.

Didn't mean to be harsh but it's wise to wait for the inevitable 3rd wave/2nd bottom test in a move like that before getting back in.

This trade is completely baffling to me.  Did you really think it would retrace all the way up to that line right away?  That would be pretty bizarre structure for a correction/break down like this.

I think it's a really interesting topic, here are some of my assumptions and some questions:

Assumptions:
1.  The trolls (not talking about people like MatTheCat and Tzupy here but NLC, etc.) are either trader(s) or paid by trader(s) to make forum posts in order to increase the profitability of their trading positions.

2.  Constantly making negative posts about Bitcoin and/or hyping other cryptos is a "game theory optimal" strategy to influence weak hands in the market.  If they're in a short position, it could convince some others to sell and increase the profitability of their short.  If they're in a long position, it could convince some others to short/sell and have to close their short or buy back later at a loss.

3. The more trolling, the larger the position these trader(s) have taken, but it could be either short or long.

Questions:
1.  Is this really profitable?  Obviously it must be if it's continued on so long.  There must be a large contingent of small-time "traders" and weak hands that visit this forum and are swayed by the constant and pervasive effects of the trolling.

2.  Who is behind it?  My guess is either one or a small group of relatively sophisticated traders.

This fractal shit is freaking me out  Going to break soon either way.

God why is this so much more exciting than watching it go to $315 

"Flash-crash" lowball bids at $132 for now.

300, 400 and 600-700 are MAJOR support/resistance areas.  If this rally takes a typical 5-wave structure the tops should be around those areas (first one already in at $316). 

For the next ATH $2k-$5k is just a guess based on gut feeling, no one can claim to have more than that IMO.

The bull run to 600 is the pricing in of the halving, plus possible global economic troubles later this year.  The lull on the chart will be some form of stabilization due to little new money coming in but people are hodling in anticipation of the halving.

I do not think the ETF will be fully priced in because there is still so much uncertainty around it.  When it is approved, the mainstream media exposure combined with the real effect of the reduced supply due to halving will push us to new ATH.

Posting this here for future humiliation or exaltation, mid-long term price prediction.  New ATH I think $2-5k, after halving and ETF. 
The flat part in 2016 is a question mark, won't be that flat obviously but relatively stable.

Great charts chessnut.  Does this look like a reasonable count for a triangle correction?  Also, is there any way the 315 peak could be counted as a i?  Thanks!

This is some WEAK, weak dumping, bears... I'd love to open a long in the 260s/270s but time is running out before we break up out of this range I think...

2015 tells a different story.  Orange line is XAUUSD

Fractal, anyone?