Many hands were burnt today, with the bitcoin price smashed to stunning lows amid huge downside volume. The panic selling was clearly evident, with scenes reminiscent of the those in the wake of the Mt. Gox collapse in February 2014 (albeit from a higher starting price). In this case, though, the catalyst is the market as the whole rather than a single exchange.

The fundamentals seem to be driven by bitcoin miners: many cannot profit until the bitcoin price recovers and / or the mining hash reduces, possibly leading to miners selling bitcoin reserves to cover costs which is further depressing the bitcoin price and perpetuating an ugly downward spiral.

January 14th Bitcoin Trading Session

At press time, the bitcoin price is sitting at around 180. After opening at 220, the price quickly formed a bearish flag during which 46,784 BTC were sold on BitFinex alone in just a few hours. This caused the price to smash through the 200 level and head to an intraday low of around 170– the point from which the famous 2013 rally toward 1,150 started. The price rebounded from the 170 level before being pushed back at 206 by a wave of selling and is now continuing its prevailing bearish breakout. As yet, there is no bottom in sight!

What to Expect Today?

The volatility towards the downside is skyrocketing, and the price is still unable to establish a definite bottom. The fundamentals at this time suggest a big rebound is very unlikely, although in times like this even technical indicators can lie.

The technical indicators are still on the side of the bears. The persistent downtrend has resulted in the RSI dipping into the selling area with the MACD way below neutral levels (the parallel 12- and 26-hour EMA further signifies that). Treating 166 as the next support level, the price could attempt a bullish correction only if it stays above the 200 mark. We have no real comments on the downside risk as the bottom is very much an unknown. Only enter the market if you are happy to face a bumpy road.

Conclusion (On Daily Charts)
Current Mood: Strong Bearish
Moving Averages: Strong Sell (0 Buy 12 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Strong Sell (1 Buy 8 Sell 2 Neutral)

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It was a day that left bitcoin believers horrified, panicked and quite probably far poorer. The bitcoin market has crashed by around 15% in the last 24 hours, driven by a mix of fundamentals and fear. Our theory is that the price fall was in no small part driven by the combination of increased bitcoin mining difficulty and the prolonged bitcoin price declines, events which have led to some large cloud mining outfits like Cex.io and GHash.io shutting down and rumors of others being in trouble (and perhaps quietly winding back their operations).

The pull back in mining has in turn impacted block propagation times, with confirmation times of up to 2 and a half hours in yesterday’s session, far longer than is ordinarily the case (see blockchain.info screen capture below). This may have added fuel to the bearish fire, with traders and miners alike selling off coins as fear took hold. Naturally we cannot be certain that our theory is accurate, but it does seem to hold some weight.

The bitcoin price opened at 268 on the BitFinex charts and fell steeply soon after the open on the back of huge sell orders which dominated early trading. The selling pressure continued to mount over the next few hoursand caused the bitcoin price to hit a low of 226. At this point, there was some attempt from the bulls to hold the price and drive it up moderately to 230-235 where it currently sits.

What to Expect Today? We are expecting atleast a brief pullback towards the 255 resistance level, at which point the question of ‘how low can we go?’ could reasonably be asked. The panic that is currently gripping the market is leading some to speculate that the next bottom will be the psychologically important 200 level, while others think the price could fall well below this. To dig into this question further, we have taken a look at the historic 1-week bitcoin price chart.

The red horizontal line in the chart marks the point from which the infamous Bitcoin bubble took off in 2013, with the price exploding to its all-time high around 1200. The patterns in the chart suggest that 133 is potentially a solid bottom in the event that bearish sentiment continues to prevail over the coming days and weeks. Looking at the nearer term, we think 200 fits the bill as a likely support level. We do not expect any violent rebound.

Conclusion (On Daily Charts)
Current Mood: Strongly Bearish
Moving Averages: Strong Sell (0 Buy 12 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Strong Sell (0 Buy 11 Sell)

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Coinarch Daily Bitcoin Price Review

Daily Bitcoin Update

The bitcoin price finally succumbed to the repeated selling pressure overnight, plunging below the key 300 support level with which it had been flirting on and off for some time. The most concerning part of the fall was the absence of any clear bottom, with the price failing to hold at either 300 or the October low of 275. For now, a strong bounce back feels unlikely with the market still exhibiting a marked bearish bias.
Speculation as to the cause of the dramatic drop is rife, with much attention being focused on the effect of a strong US dollar and its impact on associated trade able assets. The likelihood of US dollar rate hikes in the first half of this year from the Fed have the potential to further strengthen the greenback.

January 4th Bitcoin Trading Session

The bitcoin price opened at 278 on the 4HBitfinex charts and continued its downtrend from Saturday after a number of hugely influential sell orders hit the market. The market found no way to fend off this bearish attack which eventually brought the price inside a very strong bearish bias. At press time, the bitcoin price sits at around 265 and has fallen around 11% in the last 24 hours and a full 17% since the start of the weekend.

What to Expect Today?

The price is currently trading around $40 below the next simple moving average, while the RSI sits around 14. This indicates a very strong bearish bias and continuation in the market, all of which can be put down to persistent market sells. We expect that at some point buyers will remerge to support the market, possibly once a key psychological downside price level is breached. As to what that level is, we are unsure; perhaps the nearest key price level of 250 will be the catalyst for some respite. If we do see such an emergence of bulls, we see the potential for a price rally towards the nearby resistance level of 275. Only a break above this point will establish a near-term bullish correction and a rally towards 200 or above.

If the price continues to fall towards an invisible bottom, we are expecting it to test the low 200s as its next support level.

Conclusion (On Daily Charts)
Current Mood: Strongly Bearish
Moving Averages: Strong Sell (0 Buy 12 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Strong Sell (1 Buy 7 Sell 3 Neutral)

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Coinarch Daily Bitcoin Update

The first session of 2015 saw no real change in the bitcoin market with the bearish sentiment that prevailed at the end of 2014 showing little sign leaving on the first day of the New Year. Despite a few attempts at a bullish correction, the bitcoin price looks to have formed a congestion pattern and has been unable to break either its nearby key support or resistance levels.

There may be some respite in store for traders, however, with volatility expected to increase once the holiday hangovers are worked through and the world resumes its usual order. We therefore expect the current directionless state to end sometime in the next week.

January 1st Bitcoin Trading Session

The bitcoin price opened at around 318 on the 4H Bitfinex chart, after pulling back from a peak of around 322 in the previous session. With the 50 and 100 hour SMAs holding around 316 and 320 respectively, the price appeared in the mood for an attempt at an intermediate bullish correction up to the next key resistance level around 340. The emergence of sellers at around the 322 mark quickly killed this dream, however, and once again drove the price south.

At press time, the bitcoin price is trading around 316 and is consolidating sideways above the daily moving average.

What to Expect Today?

While there are some near-term bullish signals, the overall market outlook still appears bearish with the bitcoin price currently below the 50, 100 and 200 hour SMAs and the RSI sitting around 51. We expect the price to maintain its bearish state until it manages to break above the 50 hour and 100 hour SMAs. If this occurs, the bears’ grip should loosen which could bring a relatively unchecked run to the key resistance level of 340. In December and November, the price pulled backed from this area and ultimately fell to the 2014 low of 304, so bullish traders need to be wary of a repeat; a break above 340, on the other hand, should establish a longer term bullish rally towards 360 with an upside risk towards 373-375 area.

Conclusion (On Daily Charts)
Current Mood: Bearish
Moving Averages: Sell (1 Buy 11 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Sell (4 Buy 6 Sell)


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Daily Bitcoin Update

As the end of 2014 approaches, we can reflect on a year that sees the current bitcoin price at its lowest level for the year and on a market which offered fewer and fewer bitcoin trading opportunities as the year went on, with December in particular a difficult month for traders. May the Bitcoin Gods bring us better luck in 2015!

There was little change in the bitcoin market over the last 24 hours, with the price continuing to trend sideways in a tight trading range and no hint of a substantial move either up or down. Trading volumes for the last week are markedly down on previous weeks and on this time last year, all of which points to a market firmly focused on New Year’s Eve festivities.

December 30th Bitcoin Trading Volume

The bitcoin bears are continuing their march into year end. The bitcoin price opened at 314 on the Bitfinex 4H charts, continuing its prevailing neutral stance. The price was pushed down on the back of some moderate selling and once again tested the 304 support level before retracing after some belated buying emerged.

At press time, the bitcoin price sits around 312 and is trading below the daily moving average.

What to Expect Today?

The bitcoin price continues to trade below its 200, 100 and 50 hour SMAs, while the RSI is stuck near 44. All of this points to a continuation of the prevailing bearish bias and momentum in the market, with rumors that US traders are cutting losses for tax purposes further fueling the bearish flames. We therefore expect the price and volume to remain choppy for the entirety of today’s session.

A technical reading of the Bitfinex charts shows that the price is forming a head-and-shoulder pattern, with the 337 resistance line establishing a near-term rising speed line towards a downtrend. This suggests a bearish continuation that will likely crush any near-term bullish correction attempts.

The bitcoin price is currently testing 302 as its next support level, with downside risk towards the October low of 275. These areas offer the potential to kick off a long overdue rally, this time towards the key resistance area around 340; any attempt to cross above the 50 hour SMA at 321 could ignite a short-term bullish correction, the best case scenario for the next few hours given current conditions. Only a break above 340 will be able to properly entrench a bullish bias, with the potential to push 360-365 as the next key resistance area.

Conclusion (On Daily Charts)
Current Mood: Strongly Bearish
Moving Averages: Strong Sell (0 Buy 12 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Strong Sell (0 Buy 10 Sell 1 Neutral)

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Happy New Year from the Team at Coinarch

Daily Bitcoin Update

As we enter the last week of December, the bearish sentiment that has so far defined the month still seems to have a grip on the market. The bearish die was cast earlier this year when US authorities announced December 5 as the date for the second Silk Road bitcoin sale, an auction which this time saw 50,000 confiscated bitcoins sold compared to the 30,000 sold in the first round in June.The uncertainty in the lead up to this event kept nervous buyers and sellers away at the start of the month, and away they stayed for the better part of a week after the event too. Eventually the bears took hold, however, with the price steadily pushed down over the past two weeks, enjoying temporary respite when Microsoft announced its decision to begin accepting bitcoins and later bouncing of the month low of 302 which was hit on December 18. The bearish bias still prevails, however, and will likely stay until key upside resistance levels are breached.

December 22nd Bitcoin Trading Session

The bitcoin price opened at 322 on the 4H Bitfinex chart, just above the daily moving average. A bullish correction found its feet early in the day and the price moved smoothly upward in the following hours. This trend faced a little resistance around the 330-331 area that lies just below the overbought territory (pink line) and struggled to hold above here for long. At press time, the bitcoin price sits comfortably in a sideways zone in the absence of any serious selling pressure or influential volume from either side.

What to Expect Today?

The price is currently below the 200 and 100 hour SMAs but has successfully breached the 50 hour SMA (above 327). The RSI sits around 59, indicating a near-term bullish presence in the market. With the price already having broken the resistance level at 330, the next resistance level to attack is 340 – a strong support area during the downtrend earlier this month. Until this level is crossed, we see the price as more likely to test its 320 support level than break on the upside.

If the price can get a hold above 340, this will open up the 360 area and bring upside risk towards 373-380. In a long-term bullish scenario, the price could potentially run from here all the way to 455.

Conclusion (On Daily Charts)
Current Mood: Bearish
Moving Averages: Strong Sell (2 Buy 10 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Strong Sell (0 Buy 9 Sell 2 Neutral)

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Daily Bitcoin Update

After trending sideways in bearish territory just above the key 300 support level, the bitcoin price made an impressive recovery over the latter part of the weekend session, rallying from a low of 304 to a high of 331. The price never broke through the 331-335 resistance area, however, as profit takers began to appear keeping a lid on the price.

December 21st Bitcoin Trading Session

The bitcoin price opened at 323 on the 4H Bitfinex charts after pulling back from the resistance level around 330. In the hours that followed, there were a number of attempts from the sellers to force the price back into strong bearish territory, but this was met every time by strong buying which kept the price comfortably in the sideways zone. We still see the price in long term bearish territory, but the promise of a near-term bullish correction is now very real.

What to Expect Today?

At press time, the bitcoin price is below the 200, 100 and 50 hour SMAs and EMAs, while the RSI sits near 51. Overall, this indicates a neutral-bearish sentiment in the market. The bearish bias can only be considered gone once the price breaks above the 340 resistance level; until then, the previous support level of 300 is still firmly in sight with downside risk towards the October low of 275.

On the upside, the 330-340 still looks like it may attract some strong selling. Be wary of any big, bold bullish calls in this range.

Conclusion (On Daily Charts)
Current Mood: Bearish
Moving Averages: Sell (1 Buy 11 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Strong Sell (1 Buy 10 Sell)

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Daily Bitcoin Update

The steady decline in the bitcoin market which began about two weeks ago saw the price touch a December low of 302 today before a bounce back later in the session. As we touched on yesterday, we see the trading area between 275 and 300 as a potential bottom for a strong rally in a repeat of October when the price moved from less than 280 to over 400 in a little over a week. Our hopes are thus high.
December 18th Bitcoin Trading Session

The bitcoin price opened at 317 on the 4H Bitfinex chart and was quickly met by a wall of sellers. This sent the price to a two month low of 302 and well inside the oversold region. Price correction soon followed and the market jumped to a high as 320, though the bearish bias never left and is still very much clouding the markets.
At press time, the bitcoin price sits at 310 and has dropped around 3% over the last 24 hours. The price is attempting to trend upwards on the hourly charts, with a majority of near-term moving averages indicating bullish momentum.

What to Expect Today?

The 4H technical indicators have not changed much for the bitcoin market. We have strong bearish momentum and bias which will remain until the price can find its feet above the 318-320 area, from which point it may attempt a near-term bullish correction and test 324 as the next resistance level. A break above 324 will bring the 340 area firmly back in sight, but the market can guarantee a full bearish breakout only when the 340 resistance level is breached.

Overall, bearish pressures will remain if the price stays below 324 with the support level of 275-300 likely to be tested again over the coming period. Sellers still outnumber buyers. Conclusion (On Daily Charts)
Current Mood: Strongly Bearish Moving Average: Strong Sell (0 Buy 12 Sell) Technical Indicators: String Sell (0 Buy 8 Sell 3 Neutral)

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Daily Bitcoin Update

The volatility bitcoin traders have been praying for finally returned overnight, with the price dropping substantially to an intraday low of 314 midway through today’s session before recovering some ground later in the day. The last time we saw such a steep fall was in early October just before the market went on a huge bull run, rising around $130 in a little over a week.

This leaves us with two distinct potential scenarios: either the market bounces back and begins another full blown rally, or the market continues to test new bottoms on its way south.

The bitcoin price opened at 330 on the 4H Bitfinex charts amid strong bearish sentiment. As the hours passed, we saw some large sell orders drive the price down into oversold territory. There were several reversal attempts along the way (the green bars on the lower bar chart) but they were overshadowed by the unstoppable bearish juggernaut which just kept crashing through. At press time, the bitcoin price has moved just above the key 320 support level and is looking for a definite bottom. Once this is found, it could open up real buying opportunities for the bulls and start another rally.

What to Expect Today?

The technical indicators don’t support a price reversal: the bitcoin price is below every SMA and the RSI is firmly in oversold territory. This indicates a strong bearish bias in the market, with 300 the next support level to be tested and from there downside risk towards the October low of 275. In a best case scenario – and one which we see as being a realistic chance of occurring - these two support levels could potentially open up fresh buying opportunities for traders and ignite a rally towards 400 in a repeat of early October.

While we think the worst case scenario of a move to 275 is possible rather than likely, if this price does get tested then we expect it to be a true bottom and think it is a great entry price for the bulls.

Conclusion (On Daily Charts)
Current Mood: Strongly Bearish
Moving Averages: Strong Sell (0 Buy 12 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Strong Sell (0 Buy 9 Sell 2 Neutral)

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Bitcoin trading platform, Coinarch, communicate a daily bitcoin price update which includes day in review and predictions.

11th December Trading session

The bitcoin price finally woke from its sideways slumber earlier this week only to fall out of bed, dropping markedly from the mid 370s to yesterday’s low of 335. Things changed in a hurry later in the day, however, when the most unlikely of knights in shining armour emerged in the form of Microsoft. The tech giant announced that it now accepts bitcoin payments for its US-based online store, news which quickly sent the bitcoin price on tear and appears to have forced bears into submission.

The BTC/USD opened near 340 on the 4HBitFinex chart after breaking sharply below its previous support line around 347. The Microsoft news quickly changed the scene, however, with optimism flooding the market and causing the price to surge from 340 to 359 within a few hours. We saw some selling at the peak by short-term profiteers, but the market has managed remained largely neutral after the announcement and has settled above the daily moving average, giving a slight edge to the bulls.

At press time, the bitcoin price looks bullish for the short-term.

What to Expect Today?

Based on the current technical readings, the market is in neutral mode with the price trending near the daily moving average amid high volatility. The price is below the key-SMAs, while the RSI is near 45 on the 4H charts. On balance, we expect the market to remain neutral and to consolidate between 350 and 355.

If the price breaks below 350, we see 340 as the next key support level. Any successful push below 340 will open us up to the November low of 320, with downside risk towards 300.We see any bullish push as only being real if the price can break through the 365-370 resistance area, in which case we see upside risk towards the 385-390 area.

Conclusion (On Daily Charts)
Current Mood: Neutral
Moving Averages: Sell (4 Buy and 8 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Buy (5 Buy 3 Sell 3 Neutral)

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The long awaited auction by US Marshals of 50,000 Silk Road bitcoins has finally been held, with the volume of bids reportedly well down on the previous auction of 30,000 coins in June. No word as yet on the price (which was kept confidential last time), but given what we know it seems highly likely the bitcoins were bought well below the current market price.

The BTC/USD opened below its daily moving average at 377 on the 4H Bitfinex chart and continued its (now rather tedious) sideways trend at an RSI of around 47. This indicated a near-term bearish presence in the market, a conclusion which was given further weight when a large seller on BitStamp dumped around 716 Bitcoins late in the day and pushed the price from 377 to 367, just below the lower Bollinger Band. This sale caused market volatility to quickly increase as evidenced by the increased gap between the pink and saffron lines in the chart above. Strong buying hands at around 367-370 brought the price back to just below the daily moving average, a point at which it sits at press time. Overall, this indicates near-term bearish sentiment.

What do we expect today?

A technical reading of the BTC/USD Bitfinex chart shows the price marginally below the 100-, 50- and 20-hour SMAs and EMAs, while the RSI is somewhere near 45. This indicates bearish bias in the market which has the potential to move the price south in next few hours. There is, however, a strong support level at around 365 which might act as an active barrier to help rebut any downtrend. If the price manages to break below the 365 support we see the next reversal sitting near the November bottom of 350 with downside risk towards 320. In the event that the price bounces off the 365 support, we see the next resistance level at around 390 with upside risk towards the 400-405 area.

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Here are my thoughts;

Daily Bitcoin Update

The bitcoin market has failed to move in the last 24 hours, mainly due to low trading volume. The price is still trending sideways and seems to be in a congestion pattern. Interestingly, the price movement is above the daily moving average, indicating a near-term bullish sentiment.

The upcoming Silk Road Bitcoin Auction seems to be one of the major reasons affecting bitcoin price movement (or lack thereof), with the bitcoin market remaining fairly cautious. 50,000 worth of bitcoins are scheduled to be sold this Thursday meaning the bigger buyers may be able to single-handedly move the market in any direction should they choose. Should a purchaser openly sell a large parcel of bitcoins (think back to early October and the Bear-Whale), the bitcoin price will decrease due to an increase in short-term supply. Should the purchaser(s) hold on to their newly acquired bitcoins, we could see an increase in the bitcoin price as investors waiting on the sidelines step back into the market.

December 2nd Bitcoin Trading Session


BTC/USD opened at 380 on Bitfinex while trending sideways in a congested pattern. As you can see the buying and selling volume over the last couple of days (the red and green bars), seem identical. Meanwhile, the price is trading above every simple moving average and the RSI is also holding above 55. This indicates a near-term bullish sentiment in the market.

What to Expect Today?

If the bitcoin price continues to hold above the daily moving average, the bullish bias will continue. A rally above 390, complimented with the failure of a pullback, will indeed bring the price to a stronger bullish zone. In this case, the next upside resistance will be towards last month’s peak of 450.

If the price dips below the daily moving average and fails to bounce back, the next support level in sight will be around the 350 mark. Any attempt to break below this wall will open up a strong bearish zone, where the downside risk will be towards last month’s low of 320.

In the meantime, watch out for December 4th – The Silk Road Bitcoin Auction.

Conclusion
Current Mood: Neutral-Bullish (on Daily Charts)
Moving Averages: Buy (8 Buy 4 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Buy (6 Buy 2 Sell 4 Neutral)

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I am putting a daily report together and would love to hear what you think will happen to the bitcoin price.

The bitcoin price continued its march to a range bound drum yesterday, sitting above the key support level of 370 and below the key resistance level of 385 for the entire day. The softly softly price pattern suggests a serious lack of interest from market traders at the moment, possibly due to the recent broad sell off in commodities markets and the impending auction of 50,000 Silk Road bitcoins by US authorities (a North American Thanksgiving hangover cannot be ruled out either).Whatever the cause, the only real winners of the last few days are our Maximiser traders for whom a lack of volatility is the dream outcome.

Speaking of commodity markets, bitcoin appears to have weathered the recent commodity storm much better than its more established peers. Gold, silver, oil and copper have all recently fallen below their prevailing support levels, while iron ore has been belted by concerns about the Chinese dragon losing its mojo. Bitcoin, on the other hand, sits relatively unchanged from its recent peaks, perhaps indicating its role as a store of value is becoming more and more entrenched.

December 1st Bitcoin Trading Session

The bitcoin price opened at 378 on the 4H Bitfinex charts and continued its sideways advance. The absence of any serious trading volume kept bitcoin within the 376-384 range and above the daily moving average – all day, although we are seeing some attempts from the bears to push the price below various SMAs as day end approaches. The bulls have so far been ready to thwart these attempts at every step and have turned out in force in the 370-375 area, a price range which appears to be acting as a strong psychological support level.

The bitcoin price currently sits above the 200-, 100- and 50-hourSMAs, with the RSI sitting around 53. All of this points to neutral to bullish sentiment in the market.

What to Expect Today?
Bitcoin history tells us that prolonged sideways movements typically transform into downtrends. We expect this pattern to continue if the price falls below a majority of SMAs (current SMAs are: 200SMA=364; 100SMA=379; 50SMA=371; and 20SMA=374). If we do break through a majority of these levels, the price will enter into bearish territory and potentially quickly push down to the 350-360 support area. Any break below 350 will open up a long-term bearish channel, where the next stop could be 320.

If the market can keep itself above the aforementioned SMAs, then we could see bullish bias prevail and could test 400 if the price breaks through the 388 resistance level.

Conclusion
Current Mood: Neutral-Bullish (on Daily Charts)
Moving Averages: Buy (8 Buy 4 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Neutral (4 Buy 4 Sell 2 Neutral)

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Daily Bitcoin Update

Bitcoin Black Friday, a global push to encourage bitcoiners to spend on special deals offered by bitcoin accepting retailers, came and went over the weekend. Its kick off late Friday UTC time may explain a run up in the bitcoin price around this time from a low in the mid-350s to a high in the mid 380s and on the cusp of overbought territory.

Strong selling pressure around the 384-386 resistance level caused the price to pull back from here and fall back towards the daily moving average (see the 4H Bitfinex chart below). From there, the price briefly shot up to (and back down from) the 390 mark but largely trended sideways in the absence of major buying or selling signals.

All in all, a pretty uneventful weekend session with market indicators pointing to a neutral outlook.

November 30th Bitcoin Trading Session

The BTC/USD opened the November 30 trading session at 379 and continued to move sideways on low trading volume. The price at present sits above the 200-, 100-, and 50-hours SMAs, while the RSI sits at around 52. Overall, this indicates neutral-bullish sentiment in the market, meaning the price could potentially move up in next 24 hours in the absence of any bearish surprises or sudden strong selling.

What to Expect Today?
While the neutral sentiment implies the potential for the bitcoin price to move in either direction, the charts suggest the market bulls are outnumbering the market bears at present. We therefore see the potential for bullish sentiment to prevail in the first trading session of December and expect the bitcoin price to test the key resistance level of 385-390. If the price can break through here, we see the potential for the price to quickly test 400.

On the flip side, if any short term selling pressure causes us to break through the near-term SMAs then we see support at around the 350-360 area. A break below 350 could open up the possibility of a long-term bearish outlookand bring last month’s low of 320 firmly into play.

Conclusion
Current Mood: Neutral-Bullish
Moving Averages: Buy (7 Buy 5 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Sell (1 Buy 5 Sell 5 Neutral)

Daily Bitcoin Update

After testing and temporarily breaking the support level of 350 last week, the bitcoin price advanced very cautiously over the weekend on low trading volumes, giving of some notable buying signals in the process. By the time the Sunday trading session came to a close, the price was above the 200-, 100- and 50-hour SMAs, while the RSI was above 55 on the 4H chart. Overall, these price movements indicated near-term bullish momentum in the market, but breaking the 365 resistance level was proving difficult.

As a result, in our report yesterday we called the market neutral and ever so slightly favored a bearish scenario over a bullish one based purely on the historical form of the bitcoin market. Against our expectations, the bulls emerged victorious in the battle to break out of the 350 to 365 price range and look to have built some real momentum heading into today’s session.

Coindesk presented an interesting argument hereyesterday suggesting that bitcoin is poised to stay bullish for the long term, with their key thesis centering on the Chinese, Korean and Japanese central banks attempts to devalue their currencies and thereby stave of low inflation and boost their economies. Given that yuan, yen and won traders are big players in the bitcoin space, the article argued that a reduction in the values of these currencies against the USD has the potential to make bitcoin an even more attractive investment for these traders, boosting bitcoin demand and driving up its price.

Interesting idea, but one that needs to be taken with a healthy dose of ‘beware’.

November 24th Bitcoin Trading Session

The BTC/USD opened the session at 369 on the Bitfinex 4-H chart after forming a price bottom around the 350 level last week. The price moved up over the day in the absence of any serous selling pressure, holding above the daily moving average and even moving above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a strong buying presence in the market. There have been virtually no attempts at a price correction to date, with the price continuing to trend upward and sitting in overbought territory. The RSI is nearing 70, providing further evidence of strong bullish sentiment.

What to Expect Today?
Had the price failed to break through the 375 resistance level during yesterday’s session we would have been inclined to favor a bearish bias in the market today, but with every key resistance level being broken over the last 24 hours the price has entered into a non-corrective bullish channel. The next test is the 390-400 area: if the market can break through this, then the early November peak of 453 is firmly in sight; if not, then the bears could drag the market back to around the next key support level of 360.

Conclusion
Current Mood: Bullish on Daily Charts
Moving Averages: Buy (8 Buy, 4 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Sell (3 Buy, 5 Sell)

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Daily Bitcoin Update

If the last 24 hours tell us anything, it is this: the bears may have further to run yet! The price today finally broke through the strong 365-370 support level – a level it has been testing all week - and quickly moved south amid strong selling pressure to hit an intraday low of 352.

The last few hours of market activity paint a picture of players becoming bored with the persistent sideways pattern and deciding to spice things up by introducing some serious volatility into the market. The green technical indicators morphed into red as the sellers hit and hit hard, quickly putting the “bitcoin in a long bull run” theory to the sword. All of this suggests that the bitcoin market is still run by sentimental traders rather than by long term bitcoin believers, perhaps to the chagrin of many who (like us) love the underlying bitcoin technology.

Despite all of this, we still saw some small rallies over the day as the price desperately tried and failed to break through the 350-support level. The real question is how far can these rallies drag the price back up before it starts heading south once again? More on that later.

November 20th Bitcoin Trading Session

 

The BTC/USD opened at 379 on the 1-H Bitfinex chart and continued to trend sideways in the absence of any serious trading volume. The trend quickly transformed into a bearish one around 7:00 AM UTC when some heavy selling threatened to smash the market. This caused the price to (finally) break below the strong support level of 365 and move into a bearish channel, with the RSI below 30. The BTC/USD eventually received some unexpected support around 355 and the price rallied back a little before trending sideways between the 358 and 360 price levels.

What to Expect Today?
From what we see at the moment, the most likely scenario for the next few hours is the price moving sideways. The RSI is currently sitting at 34.5, indicating slight bullish momentum and suggesting the possibility of a shift to a near-term bullish trend, although this is not our base case.

The key psychological support level of 350 looms large, however, acting as the proverbial wall between a bullish move up and a long-term bearish bias. In the event that the price breaks below this level in the next 24 hours, the price will enter the October bearish channel where the double bottom of 320 will be firmly in sight. If we bounce back from 350, we can expect the price to move up towards 400, though likely for a short period.

Conclusion
Current Mood: Strongly Bearish on Daily Charts
Moving Averages: Strong Sell (0 Buy, 12 Sell)
Technical Indicators: Sell (1 Buy, 5 Sell)

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Daily Bitcoin Update

In stark contrast to the start of the month, low volatility and limited trading volume were the key themes in the bitcoin market over the last 24 hours. The price is inching forward and then pulling back ever so cautiously, avoiding both oversold and overbought territory as it gently trends sideways. Most seasoned market watchers out there would, like us, be ware of too confidently predicting any future trends given the confusing nature of the technical signals being thrown up. This technical dilemma forces us to instead delve into the market's fundamentals to try to understand more.

The first thing to note is that both bulls and bears are likely to be holding their collective breath in the lead up to the impending auction of 50,000 Silk Road bitcoins seized a few months ago by the FBI. If we take the previous auction of 30,000 Silk Road bitcoins in late June as a guide to what might happen, we can expect some price fluctuation around the event, with a rally in the lead up to and a drop in the aftermath of the auction. The key question is will history repeat? Our feeling is probably not given the parcel is substantially bigger this time and that last time the whole purse was taken by a single buyer. Time will tell.
Overall, we expect the holding pattern to remain until someone's nerve breaks and we see either a flood of buying from aggressive bulls and nervy bears or selling if the moods are reserved.
November 19th Bitcoin Trading Session

Examining the 1H Bitfinex chart, we saw the BTC/USD open at 374 before going on a short-lived bull run. The price pulled back after touching the oversold threshold at 382-383 when a bearish correction appeared most instantly, before the onset of prolonged sideways movement over the rest of the day.

The comforting thing about the current sideways trend is the lack of volatility. The price is advancing in a specific pattern, with a defined support level around 370 and a clear resistance level around 384. The current market sentiment can therefore confidently be called neutral, despite the appearance of the odd trading gap over the day.

What to Expect Today?

An overlong neutral trend means that the market has the potential to go either way and go hard. The odds do, however, appear to slightly favour the bears at present, with the price below key daily moving averages and RSI just below 40. If the price does head to the downside, it might once again test the hither to impenetrable support level of 365-370. Any break below this level will open up a long-term bearish channel and could quickly see the price test the next support level at around 340.

If the buyers take hold, the BTC/USD might once again test the next resistance level of 400 on its way up. If it breaks above the price, we see the potential for a long-term bullish bias where the price is likely to pullback only from the psychological resistance level of 450.

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