Daily Bitcoin Update
In stark contrast to the start of the month, low volatility and limited trading volume were the key themes in the bitcoin market over the last 24 hours. The price is inching forward and then pulling back ever so cautiously, avoiding both oversold and overbought territory as it gently trends sideways. Most seasoned market watchers out there would, like us, be ware of too confidently predicting any future trends given the confusing nature of the technical signals being thrown up. This technical dilemma forces us to instead delve into the market's fundamentals to try to understand more.
The first thing to note is that both bulls and bears are likely to be holding their collective breath in the lead up to the impending auction of 50,000 Silk Road bitcoins seized a few months ago by the FBI. If we take the previous auction of 30,000 Silk Road bitcoins in late June as a guide to what might happen, we can expect some price fluctuation around the event, with a rally in the lead up to and a drop in the aftermath of the auction. The key question is will history repeat? Our feeling is probably not given the parcel is substantially bigger this time and that last time the whole purse was taken by a single buyer. Time will tell.
Overall, we expect the holding pattern to remain until someone's nerve breaks and we see either a flood of buying from aggressive bulls and nervy bears or selling if the moods are reserved.
November 19th Bitcoin Trading Session
Examining the 1H Bitfinex chart, we saw the BTC/USD open at 374 before going on a short-lived bull run. The price pulled back after touching the oversold threshold at 382-383 when a bearish correction appeared most instantly, before the onset of prolonged sideways movement over the rest of the day.
The comforting thing about the current sideways trend is the lack of volatility. The price is advancing in a specific pattern, with a defined support level around 370 and a clear resistance level around 384. The current market sentiment can therefore confidently be called neutral, despite the appearance of the odd trading gap over the day.
What to Expect Today?
An overlong neutral trend means that the market has the potential to go either way and go hard. The odds do, however, appear to slightly favour the bears at present, with the price below key daily moving averages and RSI just below 40. If the price does head to the downside, it might once again test the hither to impenetrable support level of 365-370. Any break below this level will open up a long-term bearish channel and could quickly see the price test the next support level at around 340.
If the buyers take hold, the BTC/USD might once again test the next resistance level of 400 on its way up. If it breaks above the price, we see the potential for a long-term bullish bias where the price is likely to pullback only from the psychological resistance level of 450.
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