@ Trentzb. I still can't believe I have to argue this with you guys. Did you ever use your bitcoin client? Did you have to type in your name and address to use your bitcoin client? NO? NO? and still somehow magically your bitcoin client can tell you who I am? What's my name? My bitcoin address is 1KnRCRAUYKjjbVsAgWNFWdXGwtuFZCfxNe. I'll give you 10 bitcoins if there's a software out there that will tell you my name. Oh? You don't know my name? How about my mailing address and phone number did you get that information too? What do you mean you can't tell that information from my bitcoin address? Do you mean I could be anonymous? Give your head a shake.

That is exactly why it will never go back down to $1. If everyone knows that everyone is buying at that point, then we can safely say that a range of $2-3 is the lowest it can possibly go. The only exception is the death of Bitcoin and that can only happen if some major technical flaw is found in Bitcoin itself or governments start banning the trade of Bitcoin to Fiat currencies. Only a mega event of that sort can make the price go below the $2-3 range.

Indeed. Everything about Bitcoin fundamentals is going fairly well right now. No bad news, some good news. Trends are doing okay such as google trends and forum memberships. I seriously doubt a new low of below $5.

We might see a new low below the last one but I think $4.xx is almost impossible, there is simply no fundamental reason for it to go that low. The demand at $5.xx will be absolutely massive, those are truly cheap coins.

In fact I'm very surprised if the price breaks below the resistance levels at $6.xx, but I guess we'll see.

Well holding makes sense right now. Or buying, if you still have something to buy with. It's very, very unlikely that price will bottom at below $5. In fact I'd be willing to bet on this if someone wants to

Now I'm interested in seeing if the price will even break $6 which I think is unlikely but possible. Regardless, now we're at a range where buying is a good move and holding is a really good move.

Only a total doomsday-bear would sell at around $6.50 or less, there are no real indicators to show a major price drop from that point unless you're only seeing the very pessimistic scenarios. Anything is possible, but it's really pessimistic thinking.

Well this is a good question. One thing that's important to note is that a change of one dollar in price is relatively a MUCH bigger deal when we close in on the smaller single digits. There is a huge difference between $5 and $6 and I think this will prove fairly critical in the near future.

We will probably see a major correction when the price bottoms out, whatever the bottom might be. To at least $7+, possibly $8+. Then it's a good question what will happen, there is a possibility of a trend changing rally and there's also a possibility of continuing decline.

But contrary to the doomsday-trolls I feel that a stable price lower than $5 is pretty much not happening, at all. I don't even think of that situation because it's simply so unlikely, the demand for cheap coins just rises exponentially going down from $7 to $4 so with the current fundamentals I can't see a price below $5. I can only see a spike below $5 but even that is very unlikely.

This might of course change and I might think differently in a few weeks but my current estimate for this month in general is positive and quite bullish. It's entirely possible that this is the last crash we're going to see in a while. But time will tell.

It's very hard to say if the price has bottomed or not. I still see a possibility of a small decline within the next 2 months, but it will be a much slower one with the price maybe bottoming at $5.xx. This is the worst case scenario. In a good scenario we get good boost this month in form of announcements of new services and good media coverage which will start an uptrend sooner.

Regardless, looking at the transaction count chart (http://pi.uk.com/bitcoin/charts/n-transactions) it will take at the most 3 months for the economic decline to run its course and after that it's entirely up to the Bitcoin community and the media to decide where it will go. From there we have basically two options, a further decline and possible true death of Bitcoin and what I think is far more likely, the flourishing of Bitcoin's potential.

Bitcoin is still fundamentally just as magnificent as it ever was. I can't see how the doomsday-bears have ever contributed anything to Bitcoin itself, they have simply been here to make easy money and now that the option of making that money from a soaring bubble price is not available they have turned to whining. Pathetic.

The price of Bitcoins fluctuates a lot because there are speculators and traders playing the market. The size of the market is still so small that only a handful of decent bankroll traders can cause big shifts in the price. Price will stabilize if and when the Bitcoin market gets bigger.

But when we talk about going down from $20 to $7, well, that's the bursting of the biggest bubble in Bitcoin history. A speculation bubble. Actually it's from the peak of $32 but anyway.

At the same time we have seen the size of the economy contract a little, as can be seen clearly from this chart: http://pi.uk.com/bitcoin/charts/n-transactions

Now we are reaching the point of a "bottom price" right now, with the amount of transactions leveling off as well within a few months for sure, possibly earlier. Then the price will start going up, probably in an unstable fashion again because there are big speculators on board. But eventually, I hope, the size of the market will increase and it'll be more difficult for people to just "play the market".

One thing is clear, if you think Bitcoin is still doing good for the long term (years), then don't worry about the current price too much. Personally I still think Bitcoin is doing really good and has so much potential which is slowly being realized. It has been a slow process with some growing pains on the way but that's natural.

It is following the trend perfectly, now is the time to get in.

*whew* almost hit that in one swing. may have to revise that a bit lower for the day. geez.

I'm not a trader, I'm in it for the long term. I've recently just made one move of selling and buying back. Bought back too early but still made a good amount of coins doing that. Now I'm simply waiting for the price to bottom and stabilize, which should be fairly soon at this rate.

Other than that it's fairly pointless to think about losing or winning if you have a long term investment. Right now I'm "down" but it's irrelevant, what the price is 6 months from now or 6 months after that is what I'm really interested in.

OMG he's got a lawyer this time

Wow! So how can it then be that some apparently convinced fraudster was able to significantly broaden the bitcoin economy, while you only work on damaging it?

To me it seems more like what happens in the furry fandom, where when one of them gets caught on camera in the news doing something embarrassing or illegal, the rest of them immediately freak out, turn against them, and try to distance the community as far from that person as possible by any means necessary. It's a rather sad source of drama in that fandom, and, sadly, is a major source of entertainment for SA goons and anyone else who likes to pick on insecure nerds. Really though, as you said, they just shouldn't care.

Yes, let's let someone who has been recently commanded to pay several hundred thousand dollars in judgments, someone who has been nailed for fraud in a court of law multiple times, hold charity payments in "escrow." That can't possibly go wrong.

huh? i won them?

There is a very nice correlation. But if you look closely you will find the best correlation peak where Google Trends lags the daily high by a few days. It is new highs that tend to drive interest, and interest tends to droop when the exchange rate drops. There are exceptions, but if you look at the entire time period over which Google Trends is reported for "bitcoin" you will find that this is the overall case...