I'm going to go with mostly horrible.

What about a fufme drive? http://www.welookdoyou.com/fufme/index.shtml.html

Well... the bid price support has been increasing in a somewhat linear way.  Who knows if that means anything.

I know that it's a lot more exciting to day trade with volatility... but if there is long term price stability in BTC, wouldn't that kind of help aide in it's adoption in the larger marketplace?

I mean... anyone counting on a BTC -> oz gold equivalency is going to need a shit freakin ton more value in the BTC economy to accomplish.

You can broadcast a message... FROM YOUR CELLPHONE.

Did you produce that chart showing historical success of your plan?

If so, how?

You mean... by trading according to his instructions or otherwise?

He was saying that speculating tends to be nonsense and instead to use systems that you've rigorously checked, objectively making decisions based upon the historic success of the system over time.

He also directly contradicted what you're saying almost in its entirety.

I was able to net .09 btc after fees on that trade.

Woohoo.  that's like .57

Well, it's cool to see it works.

Mtgox made a few bucks at least.

I hope his daily profits are enough to keep him from deciding that the bird in the hand is worth more than the two in the bush.

Goomboo was suggesting shorting on bitcoinica and going long on mt gox...

Wealth of information in this thread!

Totally digging it.  Have to sleep and spend some time reading it tomorrow.

I am a little unsure as to whether or not BTC has a 'real value'.  IMO BTC isn't like a currency exactly.  It's somewhere between a currency and commodity.  The fact that there are only such and such a number of coins and that people might find utility in holding them or exchanging them exerts price pressure upon them.

Especially as the currency stabilizes I expect to see the utility increase, adoption to increase and relative price to go up.

At the same time, I appreciate the sentiment, because the only thing really propping up the price of BTC at this point is speculation because consumption is a relatively small amount of use for it.  

Good to keep my heels cool.  

Also... if you're shorting do you only short if you are just in time when the lines cross?  Will you short any time after the indication, or would your risk increase and reward decrease pretty quickly if you were slow to pull the trigger?

I think the idea and software behind bitcoinica make it viable long term.  Just needs an assload of cash to deal with people trading long periods of stability or short term drops.

You'd be competing with JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs HFT software.

If the average of .005 daily holds, that's a solid return. 

Slush.

Doubt this will help you out either... but here are some numbers that prove that miners are getting jacked for 15-20% of earnings on blocks shorter than 12 minutes. on average.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AhhejNMzWwx8dGpYZE9FYXk3d05MQjVDNUxLcHNXZkE&output=html

It proves that either A) pool hoppers are doing better than your massive brain thought they could... or B) for some reason slush is stealing from us, but only on short blocks.

I'll explain it to you like you're a five year old... we'll see if that helps.

Ok, jimmy... you see it's like there is a really tough puzzle that has to be figured out and when it is, everyone gets paid a portion of the total work for their efforts.

But there are some bad kids, jimmy.  These kids have figured out that if they only help right at the beginning, statistical averages mean that they will earn ~(this means approximately)20% more than by working on every puzzle till its done.

You see sometimes the puzzles take a long long time and are very difficult.  So by focusing only on brand new puzzles, they increase their chances of hitting a lucky one.

So instead, we're going to calculate a certain number of points that are a different class than the points you earn.  These points will be used to calculate your share and they will be based upon the amount you worked on the LAST puzzle.

This way, when bad kids want to play at your puzzle, since he wasn't there for the last puzzle, he won't make any money and he'll cry.  This is because when you add up the loyalty points and earned points, while the total scores amongst all the players that play every round will be proportionally equivalent , the bad kids score will be less.  If it is a very short round, it will be much less.

That way everyone that likes working hard will make more money!

Isn't that great jimmy?  Now run along and stop being such a fucking idiot.

Lol.  Ok, so I take it you didn't check out the analysis I did proving that pool hopping was affecting pay on short blocks.

And apparently, you're not literate enough to understand my idea, but you know those other ideas work better.

Wow.  I'm in the company of a genius.

Howdy folks...  I notice some anomalous data having to do with low returns on short blocks, so I did some analysis and this is what I found:

This looks like some interesting data that seems to point at pretty substantial losses due to pool hopping in early parts of rounds.

Basically I ran a bunch of numbers and I'm looking at some anomalies that would be highly unlikely to be caused by chance.

Since I was seeing what seemed to be much lower numbers than I should have seen on short rounds, I had to do some data analysis with small sample set that had some progressive variance caused by systems going down from time to time.

So, my analysis is off a somewhat normalized figure of 5 chronologically continuous blocks average payout.  I compared the 5 block normalized average to individualized payouts as a percentage compared to the average of all payouts in the sample set.

It shows that in blocks that move faster (are shorter), payouts deviate from running averages to the tune of 85.34% in this small sample set.

Larger blocks have a mean average of 104.47%.

You can see the analysis here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AhhejNMzWwx8dGpYZE9FYXk3d05MQjVDNUxLcHNXZkE&output=html

In this small sample set, short rounds with the problem account for about 27% of the blocks. 

Alrighty

I appreciate you taking the time to check things out I spent a couple hours normalizing figures and doing analysis.

They would additionally be penalized on the following round as well.

Basically, to achieve optimal pay, you'd have to sit tight and not hop.

The result in aggregate would be that all of us that just let our farms hum along without trying to manipulate results would earn 5% more on time/energy.