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41  Economy / Economics / Re: "5 Reasons Not to Buy Gold" - study by the Natl. Bureau of Econ. Research on: February 09, 2013, 05:17:45 AM

I'm assuming you mean a worse situation than this?
Quote
Take what happened in Brazil between 1980 and 2000, for example, when — according to the International Monetary Fund — inflation averaged 250% per year. Over this two-decade period, according to the researchers' calculations, gold's price in inflation-adjusted terms dropped 70%.

I don't really believe a total collapse is possible. The reason is the world is just waaaay to damn big. If the USA, Canada, Europe, and China collapsed, we still have India, Africa, and all of South America who will gradly buy up their now much cheaper products.
But, even if there was a catastrophic world-wide collapse, would anyone even be interested in gold? And would bitcoin fare any better?

You have the assumption that gold is an inflation hedge, but it is not.  It is a systemic failure hedge.
42  Economy / Securities / Re: Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on [BTC-TC] on: February 09, 2013, 01:21:16 AM
Quorum: 40% (because of the rather learge amount of shares that are owned by those who do not check this forum or btc-tc frequently enough to
and again, undeclared shares: removed from the quorum requirement


Pretty sure the second of those statements is unneeded.

If there's 1000 shares then a 40% quorum requirement means 400 need to vote for any result to count.

If the other 60% do nothing it doesn't matter.  You CAN'T remoe them from the quorum requirement (40%/400 votes) as that would give a negative number (-20%/-200 Votes).

So wording should be more along the lines of:

At least 40% of outstanding shares must register a vote (Yes/No/Abstain)
Of those that express an opinion (Yes/No) at least 70% must vote Yes for the motion to pass.
Motions will always be worded such that a Yes vote is required to make any change to the contract.

Last point is needed otherwise some tricky operator could make a motion to leave the contract the same - and the motion failing would mean it changed Smiley

So if there were 1000 shares outstanding, 300 voted Yes, 50 voted No, 100 Abstained then:

45% would have voted - so quorum was achieved (at least 40% of shares voted in the motion).
300/350 = 85.7% voted Yes
And motion would pass.

Had the 100 who abstained done nothign then the motion would fail as only 35% showed any awareness of there being motion.

In principle I'm not keen on minority changes to a contract - but with a 2 week period minimum and the fairly low level activity of many investors, what you propose seems a reasonable compromise.

It looks like the motion requires a 60% quorum.
43  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Members of Congress Introduce Federal Bills to Regulate and Tax Marijuana on: February 08, 2013, 09:34:02 PM
Members of Congress Introduce Historic Bills to Regulate and Tax Marijuana Like Alcohol at the Federal Level

http://www.bobtuskin.com/2013/02/06/members-of-congress-introduce-historic-bills-to-regulate-and-tax-marijuana-like-alcohol-at-the-federal-level/

They tried this before.  Marijuana, before the Substance Control Act, was taxed to prohibit its use.  Called the Marijuana Tax Act, it said that anyone that sells marijuana would face a 5 year prison sentence if they did not pay the tax.  It took Timothy Leary's case to overturn the Marijuana Tax Act in Leary v. United States.  Unfortunately, the U.S. Congress then passed the Control Substance Act under Congress's Commerce Clause.
44  Economy / Securities / Re: Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on [BTC-TC] on: February 08, 2013, 07:16:54 PM
We just need a set of operating rules that will set a quorum needed for a motion vote to be valid, a timeline for the length the motion is up for voting, and the percentage of the voting shares that need to pass a motion.  The higher the quorum the lower the majority is needed.

Ex.
quorum: 60%
motion passes: 51%
voting timeline: 2-3 weeks
undeclared shares: removed the quorum requirement

I highlighted the sentence that I am basing the following on:

I believe we should set it up as similarly as possible to the original contract. So here's what I propose:

Quorum: 40% (because of the rather learge amount of shares that are owned by those who do not check this forum or btc-tc frequently enough to see that a motion has been set in motion Tongue)
Motion passes: 70%
Poll duration: 2 week minimum
and again, undeclared shares: removed from the quorum requirement

I will post a motion where we will change the voting strategy to this. For that motion, we will use the GLBSE style voting, which is calculated by: YES shares divided by total voting shares.

I will also raise the motion for offering the forwards contracts, and for the growth fund. How the outcome is calculated for these will depend on the outcome of the motion regarding the outcome of future motions. Now that's a mouthful.

In addition to these, I would like to open a Cognitive passthrough on https://www.litecoinglobal.com/ , which is owned and maintained by the same guy as our current exchange. This would allow for an additional gateway for investing in Cognitive, which ultimately leads to higher share prices. If there are no objections to this, I plan on listing the passthrough this weekend.

Cheers,
Garrett

Is there anyone that owes more than 40% of outstanding shares or at least 2 people with 20%?  Also, how will the 500 shares used to cover the expenses be used in the voting?
45  Economy / Economics / Re: Did Krugman just admit that deflation has been good for Japan? on: February 08, 2013, 03:26:13 AM
Then why not the US?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2013/02/06/paul-krugman-says-it-again-japans-stagnation-is-a-myth/

Quote
during the decades of Japan’s alleged stagnation, living standards have actually improved faster in Japan than they have in the United States.

And why is this?  What does Japan have that the US (no longer) has?  A closed system.  Strict immigration controls.  Trade protectionism.

It turns out that responsible monetary policy actually leads to economic improvement under those conditions.  Who knew.

Quote
Just look at Japanese corporations. Virtually without exception they have continued to boost their revenues — and maintained their employment levels — in the face of a constantly rising yen.

Yet more empirical evidence that Keynesianism only makes sense under the un-physical fantasy-land assumption of infinite growth.

Loyalty is a very valuable thing and a nation that is not loyal to its own citizens deserves neither respect or loyalty.
46  Economy / Economics / Re: Currency War Imminent on: February 08, 2013, 03:18:21 AM
I don't really understand how inflation is going to happen if people already have too many loans?

Central banks printing money is one thing, but for that money to go into circulation it's quite another,
since there are not that many people able to take new loans and hence, help the newly printed money
go into circulation and ultimately cause inflation. I'd say that for the time being, it is only banks
that are being helped to remain afloat.

But then, I'm no expert and I am always willing to learn from more knowledgeable people.

It is not just inflation that is the worrying thing, it inflation along with a stagnant economy, stagflation.  Stagflation is the phenomenon of high unemployment, low economic growth, and increasing prices of goods and services, these are things that should not  happen according to Keynesian economics.  In that economic model high unemployment should mean less people have money which would lower prices, and when the economy is booming it should make more people employed and thus increase inflation.

What most people fail to realize is that there are 2 economies of the world.  There is the traditional lending business that banks do and the other business of speculating in financial markets, such as FOREX.  If you compare the FOREX market with the traditional lending market you will see it is several times larger than the traditional economy.


source

What is happening is that the central banks of the world are lending money to banks at low rates and instead of banks lending the money out for traditional loans, the banks are using it on speculative investing.  This flow of capital into commodity and other markets increase the price of commodities and stocks, which causes inflation.
47  Economy / Securities / Re: Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on [BTC-TC] on: February 07, 2013, 09:10:30 PM
You sold 8619 shares @ 0.63. So you collected a total of 5343.78BTC.
Cognitivemining.com lists equipment worth only ~500BTC. What happened to the remaining 4700BTC?
Did I miss something?

Can you use the x6500s to mine litecoins when asics hit bitcoin? Or what is the plan?

The 8619 shares were initially sold when bitcoins were valued at ~$5/BTC.  I think the rest were sold during the summer when it was about $7/BTC.  It is now +$20/BTC.  I also believe that the IPO was priced at 0.55 BTC per share at the IPO.  So during the IPO if someone purchased bitcoins to purchase shares of Cognitive they would have bought each share for about $2.75/share.  Currently, to buy a share of Cognitive would cost someone $7.27/share with a dividend yield (based on the last trade of 0.339BTC/share) of 20% per year.
48  Economy / Securities / Re: Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on [BTC-TC] on: February 07, 2013, 08:54:19 PM
Hey all,

First of all, I'd like to apologize for my absence for the past two days.

On GLBSE, non-voting shares were treated the same way abstaining shares are treated on BTC-TC: They are discarded from the total vote tally. In the past, this was always how Cogintive had done its voting. However, because of the amount of people asking for a specification here, I propose we set some definitions for voting.

There are a few fair methods of doing this. Personally, I would prefer that we set a minimum motion duration plus an email going out to all shareholders at the beginning of the motion, then we treat all non-voting shares as a BTC-TC style abstain vote.

Another option that I consider fair would be stochastic's suggestion:
50%  of all shareholders need to participate in the voting process for the motion to be valid and of those voting 70% need to vote YES.  So if there are 8000 shares total, 4000 shares need to have cast their ballots.  Of the 4000 ballots cast 2800 need to vote YES for the motion to pass.  Governance is always a tricky subject, but people can always vote with their feet as well, if they don't like the direction of a company then the share price goes down as they leave and other people don't want to join.

If it takes 70% of the eligible shareholders to participate and vote YES to pass a motion, that is fine, I just want to know how the voting works.

Maybe a motion to change the contract that states the minimum amount of time a motion needs to be open for voting, how the tally of motions will take place, and what quorum, if any, is required for a motion to be valid.

One way to inform shareholders is to require them to vote.  If they are not going to vote since they don't care what happens then they can vote ABSTAIN and their vote will not be counted.

I believe that with the whole exchange migration, there still might be a considerable amount of idle shares, even though the login info etc has been successfully sent to shareholders. I'm sure burnside could investigate this and come back with a number of shares whose dividends have not been withdrawn, or some other gauge.

So although I believe that this particular vote passed with 92% voting for (as it would have on GLBSE), I think that we should cast a revote using one of the above methods. Of course, I'm open to alternatives as well. So, shareholders, what do you propose?

Also, 100% of revenue for the past week will go out as a dividend today. I want to get this sorted out before executing a change!

Happy superbowl day! Tongue
--Garrett

We just need a set of operating rules that will set a quorum needed for a motion vote to be valid, a timeline for the length the motion is up for voting, and the percentage of the voting shares that need to pass a motion.  The higher the quorum the lower the majority is needed.

Ex.
quorum: 60%
motion passes: 51%
voting timeline: 2-3 weeks
undeclared shares: removed the quorum requirement
49  Economy / Economics / Currency War Imminent on: February 07, 2013, 08:37:35 PM
Great quote from this article:

Quote
“Devaluing a currency is like peeing in bed,” a Federal Reserve official told The Journal. “It feels good at first, but pretty soon it becomes a real mess.”
50  Other / Meta / Re: Petition to add more mods to Reddit r/bitcoin on: February 07, 2013, 07:16:35 PM
IMO many, many more mods need to be added to the r/bitcoin Reddit.  it is too important, and I realize the same power structure that exists on these boards also exists there.

Decentralize the bitcoin media - as much as we can IMO

IMO:

1)  r/bitcoin is extremely important.  It should have many top bitcoin community members as mods. 

2)  Current Mods: theymos hugolp

3)  I believed there to be some /bitcoin manipulation on Reddit recently.  I was going to report it to the moderators, but frankly what's the point - I believe this forum administration to make very pro-Butterfly Labs moves in all areas, in all ways.  the recent splitting of the BFL thread and labeling it a "troll museum" when the founder is an indicted mail fraudster seems to be without any merit. 

4) I know many in this community "don't want to make trouble" and "want everyone to get along" but as my new friend TJ the Juggler recently told me, "sometimes doing nothing is an action" which certainly applies to things like freedom of speech and the ability to be an outspoken critic without being silenced. 

Let's start with the Reddit IMO.  add 5 or so moderators?  have voting?  bitcoin foundation members? Gavin to start? Bitinstant memebers, bitpay guys, coinbase guys, mtgox guys, get the big boy bitcoin businesses to each have a rep.  I do not want to be a moderator of the /bitcoin reddit and refuse to accept the position, as I have enough bitcoin-media channels that I already control and am likely too controversial to be generally accepted, so this is not a push to get me in there - this is wanting the reddit to be fair.

Set up a new forum using Discourse.  It is much more interesting to use than SMF.
51  Other / Off-topic / Civilized Discourse Construction Kit on: February 07, 2013, 08:52:24 AM
Anyone played around with Discourse yet?  Looks really nice, especially compared to traditional forums.

source code
52  Economy / Economics / Re: Which country will be the first to use gold? on: February 05, 2013, 11:20:03 PM
You don't need to trade the actual gold to have a currency based on gold (or silver or any other hard asset).

The alternative would be certificates that represent gold, and I don't mean the fractional reserve type that lead to bank runs either. I mean you have a right to the actual metal.

Peter Schiff has already started something like this, though it is not available in the USA.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goI8rAAJKtE#t=9m33s



The Liberty Dollar tried this and the founder is [going to be] sitting in federal prison because:

Quote
Attorney for the Western District of North Carolina, Anne M. Tompkins, described the Liberty Dollar as "a unique form of domestic terrorism" that is trying "to undermine the legitimate currency of this country".[28] The Justice Department press release quotes her as saying: "While these forms of anti-government activities do not involve violence, they are every bit as insidious and represent a clear and present danger to the economic stability of this country.
53  Economy / Services / Re: Cheap Investigative Service on: February 05, 2013, 09:32:39 PM
I am no scammer and have a great reputation to back me up. I am a business person and i only do good deals. I have never stolen anything from anyone. I am a excellent business person with years of online selling experience and thousands of transactions to prove it. Any negative comments that were left about me are not based on trades and are personal attacks for differing ideas. You service is a breeding ground for scammers and identity thefts. Seriously people might not like it if they were on the receiving end of an unjustified investigation especially if it resulted in frozen accounts or unauthorized transactions. I don't know if legal action can be taken against your service but I am going to ask my lawyer. I dont think what you are doing is illegal just that it is not a good idea who is going to check you out that is my question. Why dont you release all of your information? that you gave to kids on irc to high school students about me. Release your criminal record and ssn and credit history and name and address in a public forum and i will quit bitching.   

I've already released everything necessary. Look at my collection agency thread. I don't have a criminal record and I pay for nearly everything in cash or pre-paid cards. In fact if I had a criminal record like yourself, then I wouldn't have access to the tools available to me.  Btw, I never released your credit history or information in a public forum, just to those that claimed they were scammed by you.

But when I start scamming people, I will release my information here. And I highly doubt that even if I released all that information, you would quit bitching. I investigate about 200 people a day. With everyone single one of them, I had a legal request made to me to do so. You don't seem to have this great reputation to back you up from what I've seen, but that's just my opinion.

Bad things can come from my service, but also good things. Like people that have been scammed can get a little (legal) justice where they otherwise could not have.  Anyway, I'm done arguing this point.

Don't you need a Permissible Purpose to obtain a 3rd party's credit report?
54  Economy / Services / Re: Cheap Investigative Service on: February 05, 2013, 03:52:51 AM
maybe join with btcjam as part of their verification process?

As part of what verification process? Sorry I'm lost.

BTCJam allows people to make p2p bitcoin loans. They do some sort of identity verification on the people taking out the loans, I think the suggestion is that you could contact BTCJam and offer your services to make the identity verification more thorough and in depth?

All that is really required for BTCjam to do a thorough identity check is to ask for a social security number from the borrower and request a credit history report from the credit reporting agencies.
55  Economy / Speculation / Re: [poll] - The U.S. Dollar Collapse Is Accelerating on: February 04, 2013, 07:49:12 PM
I hope the dollar collapses.  Then we can stop pricing goods and services in BTC/USD and instead just price in BTC.
56  Economy / Securities / Re: Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on [BTC-TC] on: February 03, 2013, 04:13:41 AM
is it reasonable to assume that the other 50 percent of shareholders would overwhelmingly vote no? So far shareholders have overwhelming voted in favour of it and I represent most of the vote against.

Nope it's not  reasonable to assume that - as I said, I'm pretty sure the motion would have got sufficient votes to pass ahd it lasted longer.  But it's a vote to make a very major change - so no assumptions should be made either way on how people vote: the vote should last long enough that all investors get their say.

For the record, I held (on behalf of my fund) Cognitive shares at time of the vote (still do) and voted Yes - my concern isn't this motion specifically passing but the principle of setting a precedent that contract changes can be made where only a minority of shareholders even vote (likely, in my view, to the voting period being too short for a majority to even become aware of its existence).

There's some things which, even in BTC land, can't be accelerated too much.

I should note that, in apparent contradiction to my stance here, my own fund HAS made contract changes twice with only 24 hour votes - but both times:

1.  The proposal was explained in detail some time before a vote went up - with no arguments raised against it (some questions, which I answered of course).
2.  Over 75% of all outstanding units voted yes with zero No votes and zero Abstains.
3.  I hold just under 50% myself - but only vote Yes if there's no significant No votes (I won't push through a contract change if there's any significant objection to it - obviously a 1 unit investor voting No wouldn't deter me).
4.  If I make a contract change I also offer to buy back any units at just above current value (this is necessary as mine's a fund - so shouldn't really change contract at all with outstanding units - this allows anyone who objects to get back more than if I closed the fund and restarted it with new contract).

So me passing motions in 1 day isn't really comparable - as there's factors making it very different in practice.

We need to have the time for a vote to take place, the quorum requirements, and percentage of votes needed to be pass a motion set down and not done on a whim or be inconsistent.  The precedent needs to be set in the contract.
57  Economy / Securities / Re: Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on [BTC-TC] on: February 02, 2013, 07:27:15 AM
That is a good criteria.  A quorum of at least 50% of the shareholders need to participate and >50% of the voting participants is required to pass the motion.


Unless you can be confident an overwhelming majority of shareholders KNEW about the vote I don't see anything less than 50% of outstanding shares (discounting anyone who abstained) being acceptable.  Contract changes shouldn't occur based on how many investors even knew there was  a vote - they should occur because a majority (of ALL investors weighted by shares) took an affirmative action to pass it (either voting yes or abstaining to reduce the majority needed).  You just can't have 30% of shareholders imposing a contract change on the other 70% because most of the other 70% didn't realise there was even a vote (That wasn't the numbers here - just making the point).


It is better than local elections where I am from where < 15% of the eligible voting population actually votes and of actual voters those with >50% win the election or proposition.

50%  of all shareholders need to participate in the voting process for the motion to be valid and of those voting 70% need to vote YES.  So if there are 8000 shares total, 4000 shares need to have cast their ballots.  Of the 4000 ballots cast 2800 need to vote YES for the motion to pass.  Governance is always a tricky subject, but people can always vote with their feet as well, if they don't like the direction of a company then the share price goes down as they leave and other people don't want to join.

If it takes 70% of the eligible shareholders to participate and vote YES to pass a motion, that is fine, I just want to know how the voting works.

Maybe a motion to change the contract that states the minimum amount of time a motion needs to be open for voting, how the tally of motions will take place, and what quorum, if any, is required for a motion to be valid.

One way to inform shareholders is to require them to vote.  If they are not going to vote since they don't care what happens then they can vote ABSTAIN and their vote will not be counted.
58  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Petition the government to declare the legal status of Bitcoin? on: February 02, 2013, 07:07:01 AM
Better publicity is to get a petition to declare Bitcoin illegal.
59  Economy / Securities / Re: Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on [BTC-TC] on: February 02, 2013, 06:41:46 AM
Believe from memory burnside's default rule is majority of outstanding shares (if the contract specifices differently then I ASSUME that would be OK).

I try to provide lots of numbers in terms of how people voted, but I don't really interpret the results.  It's up to the asset issuer and/or shareholders to determine what is the pass/fail scenario.

You're also correct that when you abstain, rather than counting as a NO, it removes your shares from consideration on the final approval percentages.  I figured if you want to say no, you can just say no.  Smiley

Based on what Garr stated, I'd call this one a fail.  And I agree, a week would probably be my minimum run on something trying to get 70%, with a notification and reminder post on the forums a few days before it closes to remind everyone.  (a notification emails everyone.)

Cheers.


Should a shareholder that does not want to vote be considered an ABSTAIN vote?

vote should be considered as failed; such a contract change needs more shareholders to participate

That is a good criteria.  A quorum of at least 50% of the shareholders need to participate and >50% of the voting participants is required to pass the motion.
60  Economy / Securities / Re: Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on [BTC-TC] on: February 02, 2013, 12:33:55 AM
Vote is over and 4043 voted for and 351 voted no and 5 abstained seems like more than 70 percent to me?

Quote from: COGNITIVE MOTION
If this motion passes with a 70% majority,

From what I understand there are 8614 shares outstanding.  I interpret the above quote from the motion to mean it needs a 70% majority of shareholders to vote YES for the motion to pass, and not mean that it needs 70% of voters to vote YES to pass the motion.  Voting NO or ABSTAIN or not replying to this motion is a vote for NO in this motion, IMO.

I voted YES, so your interpretation means 50% of the dividend will held Feb. 2.  In my interpretation the motion will probably fail to pass since it still needs 2000 more YES votes and the holders have had plenty of time to vote.

So which interpretation is correct Garr?
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