The Martin Armstrong Gold / Silver Ratio Fallacy




In the video available as part of the Metals Report subscription, Martin Armstrong made a clear statement regarding the significance of the Gold / Silver Ratio with respect to a potential Gold Rally, using Reversals and Forecast Arrays as follows.

To cut a long story short: It is all bullshit, some other wizardry to keep the fools entertained and keep them buying his products. Martin Armstrong said that the Gold/Siver ratio needs to fall below 70 to get a change in trend. The ratio actually dipped below 70 without a precious metal rally after that time, but interestingly, while the Gold price rallied, the ratio then rose steadily up to now between 85 and 90, at the time when we have a significant precious metals rally. To make it clear: This is the opposite effect, and we are trying to derive conclusions from this?

Transcript from Video, made on 2016-07-01:

Now I said before that one of the reasons that we saw for example, that gold was not ready, was simply that this silver gold ratio has been rising. In a bull market, it normally declines which would then show we would then have people buying silver as well as gold. So this is been absent as you can see from effectively 2011. Now we went up and we reached this high in February. Now we have been moving down fairly aggressively but we have still not elected any monthly bearish reversals to say the trend is starting to change. We need that confirmation [shows monthly bearish reversals 7310, 7395, 7026, 6024] and now, what we are really looking at, we have taken out the first two minor ones, we really have to get below this 70 area, and then ultimately we have to take out 6024. But once that begins to develop, now we are looking at a long term change in trend. So this is one of the criteria that we have to look at moving forward. [changes to forecast array] Now let's look at the timing of this. From the February high, we had a directional change in March. That has materialized so far, and we ended up with a bit of a, a major volatility rise here in July. And our next real turning point is coming in August - we can see that we have a bit of a choppy period when we come into the elections through October, that's where we have a panic cycle, and then next January is the biggest turning point. So we may see then a movement down, reaction up, if we get a reaction to the upside in January next year that will probably be it on the gold silver ratio. The real breakout in the middle still appears to be more around 2018.



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Wrong question, wrong approach. I am not here to answer your question. You came out announcing that YOU would make contributions. Where are they? 15 years of experience with what exactly? Please provide material that is useful for the readers of this forum. Otherwise what is the point?

The fact that we want to engage you on the subject does not mean that you can engage me with personal attacks. Everything that needs to be said has already been said here so I do not have anything to answer. I am only here to dismantle these Martin Armstrong lies.


There are indeed people in this forum who talked about themselves in detail, and they are recommending to stay away from Martin Armstrong's product:

blinder007

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51632101#msg51632101

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Identified

Another newbie to add to the list of affiliate aliases:

Gumbi, Strike Eagle 26, over45, Alex-11, Jason100

Wash, rinse and repeat. We will see a lot of superlatives but no facts. A guy with 15 years of research and no facts. Let's keep him engaged to expose that banality again and again for everyone else to see.

The facts can be found in this forum:

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

I have seen as many good reversals as I have seen bad reversals that were outside the 1% rule such as this one.

I guess you believe that a flat-earth system such as Socrates can predict future price movement by simply inspecting the time series (which is what it does and nothing else).

Then if this reversal fails, then the Socrates system has the built-in ambiguity to tell you that YOU were wrong because you did not strictly follow the 1% rule. You will find in hindsight that you could have seen this by looking at the forecast array which is again ambiguous. You would have seen that there was some kind of turning point and you should have traded in the opposite direction.

That is why this system is a scam. Not because it is not always right. No system can always be right.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

You are quite right. I am not responding to your arguments with the aim of discussing things. I am here only to publish material when I feel it is due and you have provided me with an opportunity. It is obvious that you are defending the Socrates contraption which for you seems to be almost like some kind of currency. I do not actually think that I will change your mind.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

 

Thank you for pointing this out. You are clearly subscribing to this mythical idea that this Socrates contraption is infallible and that in case of prediction failure, it is only the ignorance of the people including Martin Armstrong himself who are to blame for not knowing how to use it. I suggest you read the following article:

Socrates Technical Analysis Prediction Magic
https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/socrates-technical-analysis-prediction.html

This article explains how it is the ambiguity of the information provided that lets it get away with any failure.

Then it is at the discretion of the support staff to blame the user for not understanding how Socrates works.

BTW I am having fun taking some of the stuff that Martin Armstrong writes literally. It provides me with these endless opportunities to rinse and repeat - because what needed to be written about Martin Armstrong has been written here and quite honestly, Martin Armstrong is not not such a complex character that a book could be filled about him.

You may want to listen to one of his latest interviews at

https://play.acast.com/s/53a91a47-e3e9-4cbe-8713-07ff90f5e6f9/newsvoice.podbean.com%2Fmartin-armstrong-bitcoin-is-the-biggest-money-laundering-scam-in-its-history-24b00f90dd1700f333f1ee8f1a4eedd1

"Martin Armstrong: Bitcoin is the biggest money laundering scam in its history"

You will experience his wisdom and depth of thought first hand.

He cannot even respond properly to the first question. Instead he is getting to his own case of contempt of court and all that mess which he went to jail for. Disgusting. That is when I closed the page. After his first attempt of building a sentence.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for a reason.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Regarding the macro view, the rear mirror perspective should be shown more often. Here it is. Directly from the private blog. You check his macro view and tell me what its value was from that perspective:

Gold for the Close of June 2019
Monday, 01 July 2019
By: Marty Armstrong
Gold finished below the 1417 number which we expected would happen since the rally was still premature. Nevertheless, the fact that it closed well above 1362.50 suggests that we should move back to retest this now as support.
According to our sources, the central banks which have been buying gold are all on the opposite side of the political table from the US and Europe. It appears that they have been buying gold NOT because they think this is a bull market, but out of fear that we are headed into a geopolitical conflict. Trump does not want to commit troops to war, but the neocons do! They will support either Republican or Democrat as long as they get to start wars in the Middle East.
From a purely technical perspective, the major support will now lie at 1275. Our Energy model is a slightly positive warning that the rally has NOT been one of broad support to date.


From what I understand, the only assertive statement is that we should re-test support. Did we re-test it? No. We never re-tested anything since that time. So it is all wrong.

And BTW there should not be any distinction between Socrates and Martin Armstrong, because Martin Armstrong said that Socrates is a clone of himself:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/the-most-valuable-lesson-we-can-teach-our-children-is-how-to-think-not-what-to-think/


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

https://ask-socrates.com/How-To-Use-Reversal-System

https://www.ask-socrates.com/How-To-Use-Forecasting-Arrays

Ambiguity.

https://www.ask-socrates.com/Content/Files/SOCRATES%20Platform%20-%20Top%20Questions%20and%20Misconceptions%20v1.0%20(June%202019).pdf

A tool used by the con artist. Should be fairly obvious from what has been reported in this blog and here: https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/socrates-technical-analysis-prediction.html. For example, nobody can say what the actual trading period for a nominal period is because if in doubt / challenged, as an excuse, the forecast arrays on multiple levels are consulted in hindsight. The forecast arrays that are ambiguous in their own space, in their own right, so they will always fit. If one time frame does not fit, then another will do. I think we are going round in circles, and Martin Armstrong is laughing his head off because we are spending so much energy on his contraption, the thing that he cannot get to work for himself and then sells it to the people who spend extra money to go to his WEC conferences hoping someone will explain the mysteries to them there. It is a scam. People who want to be deceived, they will get what they want. All the evidence that has been presented here is still not enough for them. They want to experience this themselves, they think they can find a way to get it to work for them like the perpetual motion scooter from the scooter man. See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/armstrongs-ignorance-on-perpetual.html . Martin Armstrong preys on the people who think they can get a free lunch and he sells it to them, the free lunch for a fee. As simple as that.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

I don't want to spoil the party - perhaps there are any news in that category we should be listening to.

However, you might want to consider the following:


And right to the point, his macro views ended up creating bad losses for a few of his followers:

Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015
https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/quarterly-superposition-event-in-gold.html

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

3 samples since July 31, 3 weeks. It looks it might be too hard to get enough observations to see persistent performance. With enough samples, say a few hundred (I have found randomness with thousands of samples). The problem is one cannot learn anything from randomness. So whether this randomness produces a doji or not you cannot blame yourself for not considering it.

Real trading goes like this: For example, to stay relevant, you short PCG like I did because PCG is bankrupt and has been in the news for weeks. Then you make 30% within a few days even without leverage. Sure, this is not a track record and I don't know yet what to do next. That is the problem. Where to get the ideas from. But at least this one is based on some kind of logic. That is what I used. Rather than looking at this Socrates contraption and biting fingernails. I am glad I am not looking at that thing any more.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

If that is what it is then we need to short Gold now. Let's manipulate the market to make it happen!

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Sorry, I am finished with he whole subject. Everything has to come to an end somehow. I have wasted years of my life with this, and I have my own conclusions which are now more valuable to me than ever before. One is that the deeper you dig into the Armstrong data, the more confusing it gets.

The simple reason is that ALL data, be it reversals, forecast arrays, energy, pivots, whatever you call it, comes from the same time series. This is very primitive, and far from what Martin Armstrong claims about his computer which is that it correlates everything with everything. No way. That is a lie. Armstrong is really a simpleton and he does not have an understanding of scientific methods. He just uses certain words like a good salesman.

If I provided more data then I would just encourage people to do the same thing that Armstrong does, trying to derive more information from this single dimension, his data that was derived again only from a single time series, taking this ridiculous process even further to the next level. It would be crazy. There is only so much information in a single piece of data and re-processing it over and over through different filters once again will not make you any wiser.

In other words, there is no way that the history of a single time series of a stock market index can possibly predict that the FED does not cut interest rates enough so the market declines, then recovers, and then later Trump tweets that he will impose another 300 Billion of China tariffs, therefore driving the index lower once again. Someone who claims that this can be done is a liar, and we know who that is.

So, I hope that you appreciate that I am not sharing any more data. In order to put an end to this nonsense at least from my end because people will waste time trying to get something useful out of it for their advantage which I know is not possible.

And I am fairly confident that you are not going to get the data from anywhere else because Armstrong will do whatever it takes to avoid it because it would reveal what a scam Socrates is. Well as far as he can because as a programmer he is incompetent. Otherwise, being a complete outsider, I would not be allowed to develop the means to get all the data I want from that "system". I am gone.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

The problem is now: It is very obvious that "evaluating" costs serious subscription money which people like me have already spent, and that money is down the drain for most people anyway because what they get is STILL not enough. And who has years of time to come to a conclusion which will inevitably be similar to mine?


I have given assistance on different levels. Answering all questions except sharing my entire data cache which is what olegrey insisted on. That is not possible for some reasons.

I have seen where olegrey challenged the data I have provided by simply changing the trading period - effectively curve fitting it. People are free to do that, but they inevitably pay a price. If people still think they can get some profit out of a "system" sold by an outfit that is run by a charlatan with a criminal record, they deserve my sarcasm.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

The DOW is already back in the channel. I traded it as it was supposed to be traded with a 10% gain because I was short before the news and I was out this morning. As you say, Socrates trades the fake breakout and produces whipsaw. Buy the high sell the low as I wrote before. And it cannot figure out whether the market is going sideways or trending. It is as simple as that. The olegray trade is a loss already.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Socrates is Rubbish whichever way you look at it

I get confirmation of it every half hour.


As you can see nobody can even tell you which source of data is correct. If the results of all my numerical analysis turn out to be wrong because the data is wrong, that does not mean that the system is good, not does it mean that my methods are wrong. You have to look at my overall expert conclusion which is NOT based on the numbers alone, and that is still spot on. It could have only been invalidated by someone demonstrating consistently winning trades posted in advance as requested here so many times. It hasn't happened so the case is closed for now.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

No problem. Daily to match. Trading period one day.

Daily report: 2019-07-10

Daily planned bullish elected: Apple
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 20314 close: 20323, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 20175, winning: false
Daily planned bullish elected: Abbott Laboratories
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 8533 close: 8538, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 8577, winning: true
Daily planned bullish elected: Amazon
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 201617 close: 201741, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 200107, winning: false
Daily planned bullish elected: London IPE Brent Crude Cash
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 6580 close: 6701, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 6652, winning: false
Daily planned bullish elected: Coeur Min
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 435 close: 464, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 442, winning: false
Daily planned bullish elected:NASDAQ Composite Index Cash
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 815046 close: 820253, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 819604, winning: false
Daily planned bullish elected: Dow Jones Industrials
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 2678757 close: 2686020, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 2708808, winning: true
Daily planned bullish elected: Market Vectors Junior Gold Miner
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 3510 close: 3590, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 3528, winning: false
Daily planned bullish elected: Argentina Stock Index
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 4183549 close: 4280708, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 4285629, winning: true
Daily planned bearish elected: Mechel
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bearish: 207 close: 203, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 205, winning: false
Daily planned bullish elected: Norilsk
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 2252 close: 2262, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 2254, winning: false
Daily planned bullish elected: Natural Resource Partners
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 3550 close: 3647, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 3471, winning: false
Daily planned bullish elected: NYSE FANG Index
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 261417 close: 262125, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 262322, winning: true
Daily planned bullish elected: Pretium Rcs
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 1050 close: 1069, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 1051, winning: false
Daily planned bullish elected: Russian Traded Stock Index
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 140550 close: 140764, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 139888, winning: false
Daily planned bearish elected: Bombay Stock Exchange Index Cash
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bearish: 3865160 close: 3855704, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 3882311, winning: false
Daily planned bullish elected: Italy Banca Commercial
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 21912 close: 22045, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 22169, winning: true
Daily planned bearish elected: TATA Motors
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bearish: 1116 close: 1114, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 1134, winning: false
Daily planned bullish elected: Uranium Energy
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 142 close: 143, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 144, winning: true
Daily planned bearish elected: US Dollar v Swiss Franc Spot
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bearish: 99100 close: 98950, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 99040, winning: false
Daily planned bullish elected: VALE Vale
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 1358 close: 1381, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 1384, winning: true
Daily planned bullish elected: Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fun
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 6093 close: 6099, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 6101, winning: true
Daily planned bullish elected: Oil & Gas Stock Index
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 127843 close: 127873, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 128448, winning: true
Daily planned bullish elected: NY Crude Oil Futures
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 5958 close: 6043, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 6020, winning: false
Daily planned bullish elected: NY Heating Oil Futures
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 19752 close: 19978, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 19855, winning: false
Daily planned bullish elected: NY Natural Gas Futures
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bullish: 2427 close: 2444, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 2416, winning: false
Daily planned bearish elected: CBT US 30 Yr T Bonds
Period 1 Current: 2019-07-10, bearish: 154260 close: 154210, Next: 2019-07-11, close: 153170, winning: true
####### plannedBullishElectedCount: 22
####### plannedBullishWinningCount: 9
####### plannedBullishLosingCount: 13
####### plannedBearishElectedCount: 5
####### plannedBearishWinningCount: 1
####### plannedBearishLosingCount: 4


Random at best
Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

You are going to fail.

I think I can say that because I provided the data in that spreadsheet.

But you are not going to fail because I provided the data. You are going to fail because it is Armstrong's data.

And Armstrong's data is bad because he does not know what he is doing.

Martin Armstrong does not know what he is doing and that is why his trades are losing trades

And because Socrates suggests losing trades, that is why it is on the web making money by getting subscription money out of your pocket. THAT IS THE REAL TRADE AND IT IS A WINNING TRADE

And it is so successful because you cannot prove it is wrong because it does not have any rules. And because it does not have any rules, you needed to make them yourself. And you do that because you think you are smart.

Now after you fail you will blame yourself, trying to improve your rules getting even smarter. This is what this scam is all about.

 - - - - - - HA HA!

I really laugh my head off how after so much intense reporting and in-depth analysis of this phenomenon some people still cannot resist.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Are you holding your short for three days now because you concluded that this should be the trading period?

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

We need them to make these ridiculous claims so that we can reveal all the inconsistencies in them for all to see.
Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

I don't know whether I should actually respond to so much stupidity.

There is only one valid conclusion from this: Ask Socrates support to provide historical data!

Other services are doing it.

If not supplied then unsubscribe from Socrates. After supplied then subscribe and check that historical data is actually authentic and sufficient.

Otherwise you are an idiot because:

1) You are deriving data that a convicted criminal

https://pennrecord.com/stories/511497776-federal-judge-coin-collector-s-criminal-record-mentions-will-not-be-stricken-from-ownership-complaint

posted in hindsight without ability to check it and then you claim that you describe it "properly". Outrageous!

2) You are paying Martin Armstrong for your work of testing the bugs of his system

3) You are thinking that someone who has a massive amount of raw data that only very few are able to obtain would take the risk of publishing it just to please you.

Finally I want to make it clear that I am not taking any of Martin Armstrong's work seriously in any way. If I did that then I would discredit myself. I am posting here only to discredit Martin Armstrong and what he produces with the aim to save other honest people some grief and a lot of money.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain