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Clearly HF is in a difficult situation now. They are delayed and need to take some steps to compensate for that. As Wesly already pointed out, compensating Batch 1 customers will piss off Batch 2 customers and so forth. Pleasing everyone is not economical (HF is a company that needs to make money after all).
So how about this: With the delays and extreme difficulty growth it is obvious that even with MPP after 3 months Batch 1 customers are not going to break even. Knowing this, why not ship the MPP modules on an accelerated schedule immediately after Batch 3? This should not add significant cost to HF, respects Batch 2 and 3 customers and gives Batch 1 customers a slightly better chance of recovering their investment.
When it comes to Sierra upgrades: Offering upgrades from the BJ case to the Sierra case for Batch 1 customers would be a nice gesture, but personally I don't care about the case since it will be easy to make the modules work with any off the shelf case anyway.
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Time for another speculation .... AM seems to be withholding not just the mining income, but also from HW sales. I think the numbers are really looking good. I was trying to track the usual HW sales from major GB resellers here on Bitcointalk. CanaryInTheMine's address is https://blockchain.info/address/1L3XSZpfsZtEXLwDDYjJfJHncaPxAngAyV ... He just sent about 100 BTC to 1PqMrF2axd4kuY9wosY4YZ3RdhWvDf7ZUP, which is now holding ~2168 BTC!Looking at this last address, there's also some incoming BTC from a mining address. We already know that another AM address is holding close to 10,000 BTC (from previous HW and mining income) Well the good news is that if Friedcat has not tapped into those BTC for reinvestment yet (i.e. converted to RMB or USD), he will get a lot more bang for the buck now that the prices have doubled over the last couple of weeks. There is always a silver lining  |
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I'm more interested in the 2014 game plan at this point. Assuming some gen2 chips are in the works... is AM shooting for 1 PH, 5 PH? 10 PH?
Yes, it would be crazy for AM to produce 49 port USB hubs just for obsolete Gen1 USB sticks. The hubs are there for easy upgradability. It does not make sense to produce the hubs and not Gen2 USB sticks so I hope they are around the corner and friedcat is just keeping mum until the announcement. |
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This is the email i got back: Hi *,
Thank you for your quick reply. Sorry to hear of the situation. You sent me an invoice, not a signed contract. Do you have a signed contract with the San Jose Company? A signed contract will show a written agreement and may have different terms.
According to the invoice you sent me, between pages 1 and 2 of the invoice it states your remedy and process for cancelling a future delivery because of delay and the refund process. It states:
"Baby Jet Delivery Dates. All of the 550 Baby Jet units from HashFast's first production batch are guaranteed for delivery by December 31, 2013. If Buyer ordered one or more units of such Baby Jets, and HashFast does not deliver such units by that date, then Buyer may cancel the undelivered portion of the order at Buyer's request and HashFast will refund the payment for the units that Buyer purchased but did not receive and cancelled. This cancellation and refund is Buyer's sole and exclusive remedy for HashFast failing to deliver by the December 31, 2013 guaranteed delivery date, and Buyer must cancel the order by January 15, 2014 to avail itself of this remedy. Buyer to pay all taxes, duties and shipping costs."
Have you communicated a need to stop the delivery and seek a refund from the sender company? Obtaining a cancellation before the December 31, 2013 date depends on whether you have a written contract with different terms and whether the sender company knew or promised that the delivery of the item(s) by a specific date. Do these apply to your situation?
If you wish to hire me, I charge $300.00 USD per hour and will require a $5,000.00 USD retainer up front and signed retainer agreement. At this time, I have not be retained by your or your company. I would say we should meet in person, but you are in *.
Thank you. Are you sure those are the Conditions of Sale at the time when you placed your order? I'm one of the early orders and my Terms and Conditions of Sale (HASHFAST ONLINE TERMS OF SALE Ver. 1.B – Revised August 8, 2013) do not mention the December 31 date: DELIVERY AND QUANTITIES.
1) Products shall be delivered EXWORKS (Incoterms 2000) Hashfast’s manufacturing facility, or other facility as designated by Hashfast, unless otherwise agreed in writing between Hashfast and Buyer. Except for delivery dates explicitly guaranteed in the order confirmation, delivery dates communicated or acknowledged by Hashfast are approximate only, and Hashfast shall not be liable for, nor shall Hashfast be in breach of its obligations to Buyer because of any delivery made within a reasonable time before or after the stated delivery date. Timely delivery requires Buyer to provide all necessary order and delivery information sufficiently prior to the agreed delivery date.
2) In the event Buyer contests delivery, the Buyer must request a proof of delivery from Hashfast within ten (10) days of the date of Hashfast’s invoice or guaranteed delivery date (whichever occurs first), otherwise delivery shall be deemed completed. If Buyer fails to take delivery, then Hashfast may deliver the Products in consignment at Buyer’s costs and expenses.
3) Buyer will give Hashfast written notice of failure to deliver and thirty (30) days within which to cure, unless the order confirmation explicitly guarantees a delivery date. In any case, Buyer’s sole and exclusive remedy after such cure period or guaranteed delivery date is to cancel the affected and undelivered portions of the order.
4) No order, Agreement or any part thereof may be rescheduled or cancelled without Hashfast’s prior written consent.
Also, when I ordered the dates were pretty clear. It did not say 'Anticipated to ship' at the time.  |
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The majority of the project is on track and, in many cases, ahead of schedule. However, one important component, the substrates, is going to take a few weeks longer than we wanted.
A few weeks delay matters *a lot* when your mining income looks like an asymptotic curve:  Since the MPP timer only kicks in when the units are shipped any delay here will propagate to the additional units. As such it is unlikely that even with full MPP protection customers will ever break even. Also note that Batch 2 (late Nov) and 3 (Dec) will ship very shortly after Batch 1, putting further pressure on the 'profitability' of Batch 1 customers. |
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And the downward trend continues, both in dividends and share prices.
Looks like AM is trying to pivot. Moving away from mining and towards peripherals (hubs, cooling solutions) and services (exchange, payment). Let's hope it works out and AM is keeping their eyes on the prize without spreading themselves too thin trying to cover too many things outside their core competency.
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We anticipate making an official announcement today.
Thanks Erin, looking forward to that official announcement later today. As you might have noticed this thread is becoming more trollish by the day, so we could really use some concrete progress updates in here. |
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If Bitcoin reaches $1000 it won't be time for a party, but for a funeral.
A funeral for fiat.
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And yes lol, 50% is within the rules. 400% is the limit I believe, and has been reached before.
Wow. We're fucked. This is the most accurate description of our situation I've seen so far. |
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My point is that any delay in shipping also means a delay for MPP as it is currently tied to the delivery date of the Batch 1 unit. So if HF ships 4 weeks late, your MPP modules will also arrive 4 weeks later. That will significantly impact your ability to earn back your investment cost.
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Hardware wise it looks like the BJ and Sierra are going to be stellar. HF has made all the right decisions so far (at least on paper) with a full custom ASIC on 28nm with thermal controls, watercooling, high quality PSU, modular boards w/ USB that can use any controller etc. So I'm really happy about that.
All of this is moot however if there are significant delays. The network difficulty is rising with 40% every 2 weeks now. Perhaps the 3 month MPP timer should kick in at the original announced shipping date set at 0 BTC until delivery? This would provide an incentive to prevent further delays.
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BTC the ironic currency ....? That explains the popularity of Bitcoin in San Francisco. Ironic Hipsters. |
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Mining is becoming a fools game. I know, because I'm one of the fools.
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The question is:
Is AM a one trick pony that got lucky or is it a real business with staying power?
I'm afraid the jury is still out on that one.
Betting on the latter myself, but perhaps that is based more on wishful thinking than rational thinking...
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We plan to receive the chips during the week of October 20th. Exact date depends on variable physical processes at TSMC.
In other words, expect delays. 2 more weeks(tm)? Say it ain't so HF... |
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Wouldn't it be great if we put all this behind us and just got Mt Gox to transfer back the money to the creditors before Gox goes down?
It certainly would. Not going to happen though, because everybody is still interested in playing their sad little games at the cost of the creditors. |
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We could also draft letters to both Gox and the Liquidator, asking for an official response from each of them on what they are waiting for to move forward, as we are blind right now to what the hold up is. We could get these letters posted on the blogs to get some publicity.
I wrote the following to the liquidator on Sept 17: Hi Anne,
In the second report you alluded to the possibility of legal action against MtGox in order to gain access to the Bitcoinica funds stored there.
1) Has there been any progress in this area? If so, how can the creditors help?
2) Is there a date for when to expect the 3rd report?
3) Does PKFCR have a fiduciary duty towards the Bitcoinica creditors?
4) Is PKFCR aware of the fact that DHS has seized 5M of MtGox's customer deposits and that Coinlab is witholding another 5M of customer deposits? MtGox is a huge counter party risk for Bitcoinica creditors given their current situation.
Bitcoinica is a small company, I was hoping that the liquidation could be a more swift affair in the interest of the creditors. On Oct 10 I finally got a reply which I can't share here because it comes with a lot of legal boiler plate but instead of answers I got a brief statement that every time they write an email it adds costs to the liquidation, which will affect the distribution to creditors. (... I wonder how much they will charge for that?) So you better keep your mouth shut and every 6 month you can expect another scrap of information in the shape of a liquidator report detailing 0 progress. Oh and another 50.000 USD please for our service. Suffice it to say that the Bitcoinica debacle has been a real education for me. Faith in humanity has dropped a few notches. |
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I see. Interesting... So you are saying it goes UP and DOWN and UP and DOWN and UP and DOWN? A remarkable insight indeed! Of course the orange arrow only goes UP and not DOWN. Because. It. Is. Orange. Correct? |
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The USA and other fiat debt laden countries will default or collapse at some point so they might as well do it now. I would like to see this madness come to an end in my lifetime. I realize it won't be pretty, but hey - who said going cold turkey would be fun? It is however, the right thing to do. Perpetuating the mistakes of the past, passing the hot potato and kicking the can again and again is not the solution. Of course, this is exactly what will happen so enjoy living the dream while it lasts.
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