Hi all

I've been looking at the history of the forum, but I can't get back any further than the 5th thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5

topic=4, 3, 2 and 1 either don't exist or are inaccessible to me. I assume the latter.
Does anyone know the answer? Are these threads visible only to higher ranked members, or do they no longer exist? Or are they visible and I'm just typing the wrong URL? Or were they just test threads that were then deleted?

Sorry - it's a stupid question and probably has a boring and mundane answer, but it's niggling me and I'd like to know.

It's a sad fact that developing countries always get worst hit for everything. I'm from the UK, and the history of my country is shameful. The UK built an empire by enslaving and exploiting half the world.

One of the big impacts of an increasing population is that it of course increases demand for all sorts of things, and this exacerbates climate change. Climate change has been caused mostly by the practices of western nations since the industrial revolution... but it is developing countries that experience more of the droughts and famines and extreme weather that is a direct consequence of western behaviour. If it gets worse and reaches the point where half the planet becomes uninhabitable, you can bet that it is the poorest countries that will suffer most.

Gold has value only because the consensus is that it has value. In and of itself its just a yellowish metal with limited real utility.

Bitcoin also has an absolute cap, whereas gold isn't really limited - you can say the Earth's total mineable supply of gold, but I'm sure we'll have asteroid mining for precious metals in the not too distant future, which could have a big effect on supply and value.

I think gold is on the way out. Over the next few years (or maybe decades) we will see crypto take its place. Bitcoin is a far better store of value, or at least it will be once the markets mature some more and the price volatility dies down. Physical money and money-analogues are archaic. People now prefer digital money, with all the convenience it offers. People going abroad used to sew travellers cheques into their clothing. Nowadays they use their bank cards to move seamlessly (but with fees) between currencies. In the future they will use crypto for near-instantaneous transfers at almost zero cost. Crypto will supplant fiat, and digital stores of value will replace physical stores of value. The only thing gold has going for it is history. The future shouldn't replicate history, it should learn from it and build something better.

I did study quantum mechanics, but it is going back a few years and this is a fast-moving field.

With my admittedly limited expertise, I would agree with the point quoted above. Simplistically, outcomes in quantum mechanics occur when the quantum wave function collapses, and the act of interfering with ("measuring") a quantum system triggers this collapse. So whilst a true quantum computer would find cracking any classical encryption to be quite straightforward, using its immense power to simply brute-force its way through, a quantum encryption system is another matter entirely. Quantum encryption methods are theoretically tamper-proof and theoretically 100% secure, as any attempt to break the encryption collapses the wave function and destroys the ability to read the data. (You know the Schrödinger's Cat thought experiment? The cat is neither alive nor dead until the check is made - it exists in a superposed combination of states, and it is the act of checking that collapses the probability function into a definite alive or dead outcome.)

I say "theoretically" tamper-proof and "theoretically" 100% secure because as I say it's a fast-moving field and who knows what advances tomorrow may bring? But certainly quantum cryptography as currently understood should provide a very robust security mechanism.

Privacy was always a lie. The dollar cost to set up a Facebook account is zero. The dollar cost to use their platform is zero. This doesn't mean it's free. The cost of using Facebook is measured in personal data. They take everything they have about you, run it through increasingly sophisticated models to fill in the gaps, and then sell it. For me the scandal isn't so much that Facebook sells personal data, it's that governments permit them to do so. The trick these companies use is quite simple - they just move ahead of the legislation. They set up camp in an ungoverned space, and there might be some grumblings of public opposition, but FB, Google, Amazon and so on just sit there and wait it out until the clamour dies down and their behaviour of grabbing and selling all this data just becomes the new normal. It becomes established, it becomes accepted because these companies are largely unchallenged.

The increasing population is causing immense strain on ecosystems and on certain societies. This is exacerbating climate change, and one thing that really needs to be addressed is intensive farming. As societies develop (thinking particularly of China), they start to develop Western habits and Western consumption patterns. The move towards a meat-heavy diet is one of these changes. Farming of livestock for meat is not sustainable forever, and causes huge environmental damage. I think one consequence of increased population will be a move away from normal meat consumption. We are starting to see it now with the growth of veganism, with a lot of people switching out of environmental concerns.

I think over the next few years we'll see societies moving away from farmed meat consumption and towards both veganism and lab-grown meat. Costs of lab-grown meat are high at the moment largely because there is no scaling effect - as demand rises, prices will fall. Once we hit the point where it is actually cheaper for companies to produce vegan meat alternatives and lab-grown meat, then this may prove a tipping point. It could be in 10 or 20 years that almost no-one eats meat from animals any more. And the environmental benefits could be huge.

So this I think is an example of where increased population makes a problem worse, and so leads to the development and adoption of a solution.

Price predictions vary between $0 and multi-million dollars, depending on who you ask. The reason there is so much variation is that essentially everyone is guessing.

That said - if you look at the all-time chart for bitcoin on a log scale, then a cyclic upwards movement of higher highs and higher lows becomes apparent... so predicting based on history, and that we are just coming out of the dip stage, then the price in 2020 will be somewhat higher than now.

One thing to consider when comparing small trades with big trades is the extent to which emotion comes into play.

You can buy a coin for $1 and turn it into $2 easily enough. But could you do the same if you bought a million of the coin for $1 million? Can you be sure you'd make the exact same decisions and turn it into $2 million? It's harder than you might imagine. When you spent $1 on a coin and turned it to $2, what if the price dropped to $0.50 along the way? Fine, you held in expectation of a price rise, and you cashed out at $2. But try the same when it's $1 million you're putting in. That same price drop gives you half a million dollars loss. Is it still fine to hold or do you panic and cut your losses? Or would you never have put that amount in in the first place, given the risks?

It's difficult, isn't it?

Normally once a big BTC rise exhausts itself, alts take over and start to soar. Whether that will happen this time or not, we don't know. Everything in crypto is guesswork. We can just use our knowledge and a study of past history to try to make a better guess, but fundamentally we are all still guessing.

Personally I think BTC will continue to rise and alts will start to rise with a higher % increase. and then once BTC stops I hope it will level off so we can establish some solid support. But there we go - I'm guessing, and I'm already starting to mix cold analysis with messy emotional considerations...

There are various projects in crypto to 'bank the unbanked'. Bitcoin at the moment probably isn't the answer as there are smaller, more nimble coins to fill that particular gap.

However the issue here is inequality. A global currency and global government might do something to help, might not. What we can do as individuals is to work to reduce that inequality. Fundamentally it is an inequality of opportunity. I get to buy bitcoin and other cryptos because I am fortunate enough to have been born and live in a rich Western country. I have little doubt that if I'd been born in a poor country, I'd be more concerned about famine, disease and war than about where I could buy crypto.

So what can we as individuals do to help remedy the situation? We can try to vote in governments that will help, but we can also give to charities that will assist people. There are plenty of good ones out there. Personally I use this online charity evaluator so I can make sure my money is going to the best place: https://www.givewell.org

If you want to get involved on a more personal level, there are opportunites to help specific individuals through schemes like this one: https://www.deki.org.uk

Crypto may help in the end, but we don't need to wait for that, we can help right now.

I wouldn't trust Facebook with anything. Their business model is based on extracting and monetising our personal data. Libra is another step on the path towards FB knowing everything we do. Look at their history of privacy abuses and meddling in curated newsfeeds and influencing government elections.

I remember when Facebook, Google, Amazon etc were regarded as cool new companies that would be different to the evil capitalist corporations that ran the world. That time has long passed, these companies are just as evil as their predecessors. Everything is money. They have no noble aims.

I think we are still in the stage where BTC growth is dominant. If the pattern that we have seen before does repeat this time, then the alts would only start to take over the growth once BTC has stopped increasing, which hasn't happened yet.

I am also introverted. In my job I occasionally have to perform extrovert-type tasks, giving presentations and leading meetings, but I know there is absolutely no way I could last in a proper extrovert-type job.
I would say you absolutely have to get a different job. An introvert will never be happy in an extrovert role.

The key consideration here is to balance risk against reward.
BTC probably remains the best bet for long-term growth.
Top for % growth will be some unheard of tiny micro-cap coin - but obviously these are extremely difficult to spot before the price surges.

What does everyone think about the idea of a Universal Basic Income?

It is gaining popularity on both sides of the political spectrum, and there are increasing numbers of live trials of the system.

The concern is that the next wave of automation will create a new class of effectively unemployable people, and that as this continues some system will need to be in place to support citizens. Waves of automation in the past have simply created new jobs in different spheres. The industrial revolution cut agricultural jobs but created factory jobs. The development of computers over the last few decades has hit manufacturing jobs but replaced them with new opportunities in the service sector. The problem is that as AI starts to take hold, many of these jobs will go as well. It used to be the case that there were always jobs that computers couldn't do, but in the future this will rarely be the case.

Universal Basic Income also removes some disincentives to work, and what is called the 'welfare trap', whereby the resulting cuts to benefits due to new part-time work can make it economically preferable to not take part-time jobs.

So as we are generally a technically minded set of people on here, with one eye always on the future, what do people think? Is UBI inevitable? Is it desirable? Personally I think probably both. It is at least worth trying. It is a step towards reducing inequality, and will provide an element of empowerment to the disenfranchised, and so perhaps alleviate some social tensions. It will also drastically simplify existing complex and expensive welfare programmes. UBI needn't be hugely expensive either, an overhaul of the taxation system to make it more genuinely progressive could free up huge quantities of money.

I think the root is freedom and responsibility.

As a child (assuming you are lucky enough to have a good childhood) you don't have the responsibilities, and can live a carefree life with everything provided for you, shelter, food, warmth, safety, parents to provide for every need. And this is true for teenagers and often young adults as well.

What you don't have as a child is freedom. Not really. It is your parents who decide what you can and can't do, where you go etc.

Whereas as an adult you get complete autonomy. It's up to you whether you work, where you go, where you live, who you spend time with, whether you have kids of your own etc. And with that comes total responsibility for your own life (and that of any dependents). You need to earn money, cope with stress, assess risks, make vitally important decisions.

The cusp of adulthood is probably that sweet spot where you are starting to get more freedom as you become a legal adult and your parents give you more and more autonomy, maybe you go away to university or something - and whilst you complete your growing up your parents still take many of the responsibilities away, so you have both freedom and no responsibility. But it's only ever a transitional phase, and it can't last!

Amazon are kind of bad for this as well.
"Alexa, please listen to everything I say and then feed me crappy adverts based on my private offline conversations."

Honestly, it's everywhere.

The reason they get away with it is because it's virgin territory. They say move fast and break things - they just have to move ahead of the governments into un-legislated space. Google Maps basically photographs everything on the planet. Fine, no law to stop it. Facebook bases adverts on what they think you are thinking.  Fine, no law to stop it.

Remember the old TV footage of US astronauts planting a flag on the moon? Because they could. No Russian cosmonauts there to stop them. Same thing now with these tech companies.

There's also the distinction between true liberty and apparent liberty.

I live in what is called a 'capitalist democracy', which is a bit of an oxymoron. We are apparently free to have our own opinions, but in practice a capitalist democracy is really a plutocracy. It may be one person one vote, but the rich have far more power than the poor. Our opinions are heavily influenced by mainstream media. You can try to fight it, but you can't escape it. You have huge swathes of the population who vote according to the latest nonsense that's been spouted by the tabloid newspapers, whose mega-rich owners consequently have huge influence on electoral outcomes.

Unquestionably I would rather live where I do than in certain other countries, and I have far more liberty than I might elsewhere - but it's always constrained and always influenced. I think whatever system of government you have, the people in charge will always be tempted to act in self-interest rather than in the interests of the wider population. This is one reason why decentralised crypto is so important.

I think the privacy settings are just to give the illusion that they are not tracking you. There is huge money in personal data, and what is now being called surveillance capitalism. Tracking through FB posts is only the tip of the iceberg. Anyone who carries a modern mobile phone is giving their location to these companies 24 hours a day, and there is nothing you can do to stop it. All browsing history is tracked. A major aim with FB's new Libra coin is I'm sure to suck up data on purchase history, too.

So they get all this data, which they sell on to third parties, advertisers and spam mailers, for profit. But it's more far-reaching than that, they use all this data to build up a profile of your personality, your interests, your web of personal relationships, your preferences and biases... the aim being an ever more accurate digital representation of you, in order to better predict your future behaviour. FB and Google seem to be the worst two offenders, but it is spreading. Advertisers pay a lot of money for this information.

It doesn't stop there, either. FB is particularly egregious in regard to using this information to modify your behaviour, most notably in curated newsfeeds to channel you into voting for a certain party. Google do this as well - take Pokemon Go, by "Niantic", which was spun out of Google - a restaurant only needs to pay a few dollars to lure a rare Pokemon to their establishment and they will increase foot traffic and sales dramatically. So this thing is dressed as a game, but is quite clearly a means to modify consumer behaviour.

I'm in the EU, and thanks to GDPR legislation, we now have a better idea of what is happening, even if we can't stop it. Every website now gives you a cookie warning, and if you delve into the permissions you're presented with an endless labyrinth of client companies who then sell the data to their clients, etc, etc. But people just click 'ok' to accept everything. Even I do it sometimes, it's everywhere, it wears you down. You can use VPNs and ad-blockers and everything else, but the attack is just relentless and omnipresent.

There's a ton of information out there once you start looking. Take this article from 5 years ago - imagine how much the tech has improved since then!
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jun/29/facebook-users-emotions-news-feeds

Sorry, I'll stop ranting now. Don't trust privacy settings!

I expected that XRP would go much higher following the Moneygram announcement. It is a strange coin in that often news seems not to really affect the price, and then suddenly there is a huge price surge which does not appear to be related . It's a strong coin with a solid future, and it's a difficult coin to use for trading because you never know when the price will soar. It looks under priced, I'd expect a big surge is overdue.