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4001  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2019, 05:10:53 PM


along with their claim of 5nm chips in spring and 3nm chips in development.




We shall see...i am skeptical, but they might deliver something by next summer, which means that current buyers would be largely obliterated.
Bitmain is killing the golden goose aka cutting the branch they are sitting on themselves.
It only takes one large loss to drop out of the mining game alltogether.
4002  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2019, 12:14:26 AM
Fuck politics get back to Bitcoin, why don't we go up? I was told to enjoy $16k in October. Where is it? 18 days left to November,

Who the fuck told you that?  You want me to beat them up for you?

Or maybe you are the one who deserves a beating for relying on promises (and then propagating such nonsensical promises) when anyone with any kind of scintilla of common sense in bitcoinlandia should realize that there is no such thing as a promise in bitcoin, especially when it comes to short-term price movements.  AmiNOTrite?



Asuka needs get her shit back together as soon as possible. People's dreams are on the line here. All those lambos, hoos, parties, yachts... Get back to work Asuka enough lollygagging

Who is Asuka?  Has she participated in this thread or been quoted in this thread in any kind of memorially significant way?

some anon on reddit and yes, he/she was quoted repeatedly.
All these predictions always fall apart sooner or later, even the one from the "time traveler", which was quite successful, is about to kick the bucket at the EOY.
The "citadels" idea might persist, though.


Hm?  I don't recall seeing those predictions in this thread, so I suppose it is not memorial for me.  Perhaps, I am not reading this thread (and retaining) as thoroughly as I should be... for some strange reason.

Yes, it was discussed here and you even merited this.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52289353#msg52289353

the only thing is i am not sure if that Anon is the one prior poster related to. maybe not. In any case, this is the only viral prediction on reddit that i was aware of.
4003  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2019, 11:38:44 PM
This board spends inordinate amount of time and effort talking about forks.
Seriously, who cares much about it? They came and now largely gone.

There are many other really relevant topics.
One, for example, is why govvies are so gung ho against Libra and telegram?
I am quite curious about this. Will this spillover to btc? Is is difficult not to expect some "regulatory" efforts by next summer at the latest.
How will bitcoin respond?
4004  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2019, 04:54:17 PM
Fuck politics get back to Bitcoin, why don't we go up? I was told to enjoy $16k in October. Where is it? 18 days left to November,

Who the fuck told you that?  You want me to beat them up for you?

Or maybe you are the one who deserves a beating for relying on promises (and then propagating such nonsensical promises) when anyone with any kind of scintilla of common sense in bitcoinlandia should realize that there is no such thing as a promise in bitcoin, especially when it comes to short-term price movements.  AmiNOTrite?



Asuka needs get her shit back together as soon as possible. People's dreams are on the line here. All those lambos, hoos, parties, yachts... Get back to work Asuka enough lollygagging

Who is Asuka?  Has she participated in this thread or been quoted in this thread in any kind of memorially significant way?

some anon on reddit and yes, he/she was quoted repeatedly.
All these predictions always fall apart sooner or later, even the one from the "time traveler", which was quite successful, is about to kick the bucket at the EOY.
The "citadels" idea might persist, though.
4005  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2019, 04:44:40 PM
BS goals or worthy endeavor (FI/RE)?

https://nypost.com/2019/10/08/inside-the-strange-secretive-lives-of-rich-millennial-cheapskates/

I think that peeps on WO with significant coinage might want to spare some for a better living.
Otherwise, all that sat stacking is for what?
Frugality has it's pluses, but there are also a lot of minuses.
Essentially, you would have a bunch of money when you are old, however, when you are old, your plans are typically limited.

4006  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2019, 06:13:45 AM

[A reaction to china coin launch in a few days/weeks?]

US is about to experience yet another "sputnik" moment.
In the 60ies it was a smart response: NASA, lunar missions, science education in schools.
What now? I am not confident at all that a response would be intelligent this time around.
4007  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2019, 05:18:28 AM
IMHO, you fellas should ease up on jbreher.
He is NOT R. Ver or craig W, clearly.  
An engineer and/or scientist, no doubt.

I root for the proper btc, but the jury is still open on whether LN would behave when we stress it with 100s of millions if not billions of users.
BTW, personally, i like second layer solutions like LN more, but I am perfectly willing to listen to the opposite opinion.
Y'all espouse 'political correctness' here, which i never cared much about.

Besides, anyone who did not split their btc yet carries expected future bch and bsv coins within.
I don't think that for btc to succeed, forks have to zero-out.
Mostly, I just not follow them as closely as btc, but time comes, I would like to collect the proceeds if there would be any.

4008  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2019, 02:57:46 AM
Has anyone else noticed the severe drop in liquidity on coinbase pro for BTC/USD?? Order book averaged about $50 million+ in buys all the way down to $2200 up until yesterday. Within the last 24 hours it dropped from $50 million down to barely over $10 million. What happened here?

You posted the same thing yesterday. Order books are irrelevant - whales use APIs.  

Didn't Coinbase pro have a recent increase in their trading fees too? That could possibly have been a partial explanation, too, no?

yes, that's what happens when you increased fees threefold while competitors did not.
https://youtu.be/p79lKeQMBPc?t=92
4009  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2019, 02:35:29 AM
This is from their FAQ:

"When you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork, you will have ordinary income equal to the fair market value of the new cryptocurrency when it is received, which is when the transaction is recorded on the distributed ledger, provided you have dominion and control over the cryptocurrency so that you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of the cryptocurrency."

If you never split the new coins from the base chain, there is no tx recorded on the distributed ledger. And therefore, by definition, those coins have not been received.

Brilliant.

However, the way they did it you would have income first (after performing the splitting txn) and then cap gains on the price difference when sell/exchange.
4010  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2019, 12:44:52 AM
Interesting...SEC files emergency relief against Telegram token (TON).
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2019-212
Someone already invested 1.7 bil.
I wonder how this would progress.


This is the USA and the SEC. Let's see. $1.7 Billion dollars. (grabs calculator for his SEC guess on fine)

I bet they settle it for $210 million and then let it proceed. Hey, it is how we roll in the USA and the SEC.

Pay us some meagre fines and voila you are off the hook.

https://www.engadget.com/2019/10/01/sec-fines-block-one-24m-unregistered-ico-worth-billions/

See SEC fines Block.one above $24 million USD only. The fact is they made billions. It will be the same for Telegram token TON.

Rinse/Wash/Repeat. Money talks/bullshit walks. It is how the SEC rolls in the USA.

Brad

Right.
In the mean time there is a draft of new 140 form where question of "virtual currency' is on line 1.
https://www.accountingtoday.com/news/irs-revises-form-1040-schedule-to-ask-about-cryptocurrency
how important are these miniscule taxable proceeds are?
Apparently, important enough to put them on line one.
Realistically, though, we have a 20 tril economy and crypto income and cap gains has got to be a pimple on elephant's skin (so far)
4011  Economy / Computer hardware / Re: [WTS] 2880W PSU price reduced on: October 12, 2019, 12:25:41 AM
Price reduced to $40 plus shipping (shipping should run about $20-30 for FEDEX ground) to continental US only.
4012  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2019, 12:18:55 AM
Number of #Bitcoin addresses holding more than 1000 $BTC 👀

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/1182674900496146432?s=21


Maybe I'm reading the graph wrong, but it looks to me like ~10,500 addresses holding 1000 BTC (or more) would mean that those addresses (not wallets w/ more than one address) would own:

10,500 addys * 1000 BTC = BTC10,500,000

Or well over 50% of the BTC mined so far...

Maybe it's wallets holding over $1000 worth of BTC?  The twitter link sort of suggests that too.

No, redline is the number of addresses (values on on the left, about 2100 addr), grey line-price of btc (value on the right in log scale).
2100X1000=at least 2.1 mil btc (in reality, much more since some addresses have MUCH more than 1000 btc).
4013  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 11, 2019, 11:55:53 PM
Tone Vays...this is getting progressively more tiring.
Where does he get all this nonsense? From connecting a couple of dots with a straight line?
In addition, I don't believe that he is going to sell his apartment and buy btc at 2600. It wouldn't make any sense.
Vays is bitcoin's Robert Prechter.
4014  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 11, 2019, 10:45:34 PM
Interesting...SEC files emergency relief against Telegram token (TON).
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2019-212
Someone already invested 1.7 bil.
I wonder how this would progress.
4015  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 08, 2019, 10:33:02 PM
btc dominance at 66.6% (spooky!)
some correction from 71.4
4016  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 08, 2019, 02:58:26 AM
*incoherent ranting*


Yes.  About a year and a half ago, pretty much Hairy admitted that he was relying on fractal comparisons, and surely I have been vocally critical of such fractal comparison reliances, even though they have largely been playing out - with, of course, some upwards deviation with our 3.5x outburst from April 1 to end of June, and currently what appears to be a return to the mean of the fractal... So whatever the fuck lack of comparison seems to still be working out in a very comparable way.


So, maybe there has never been such a system in the world, but who fucking cares?  It still has worked out quite well in bitcoin for a lot of us BTC HODLers and accumulators to be continuing to become richie and to increase our richness through the fact that BTC prices continue to go up in the longer term.. just like the silly fucking ass fractal comparisons seem to suggest.  Go figure?  

Now you roach, on the other hand, have had some mediocre gold price appreciation during this calendar year (which has gotten you all excited, and even a bit more cocky than usual), and maybe you should be taking advantage of that mediocre gold price appreciation and getting into a real future asset.. ie bitcoin?  dumb ass.

There is no TA comparison in legacy financial markets because there is no comparable asset in legacy financial markets.

There is no financial instrument with fixed supply to be paid out over a century where the rate of supply halves every four years as regular as the Olympics.  It is this regular drum beat that causes us to pound out the same patterns.  Yes the drum beat will get weaker over time as inflation falls away, but it is strong now and will remain strong through this halvening and likely the next.

I have spoken to investment bankers at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan who do TA on Bitcoin and in their arrogance they have never heard of the halvening.   So they can’t plan for it and they can’t front run it.   Even among retail investors, most of whom are focused on chasing shitcoins, they have no understanding of how the entire market is run by the drum beat of Daddy Bitcoin.

We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.  



I agree that we have halving knowledge, but here comes the test...
If this time around halving and S/F extension to above 50 (closer to gold) would produce 55K-90K prices (conservatively), THEN our position was truly privileged. If not, then it is still mostly random fluctuation. I hope for the former and I am keenly aware of the latter.

Most of you were probably not around the Internet bubble 1. In 1997-2000 it was simply great. No matter what you bought (out of major and even minor Internet stocks), you were doing great. Then came B2B Internet stocks and early biotechs (with no product) that inflated to tens of billions almost from the get go.
Anyone investing in these stocks has seen only a tremendous bull.
Then it all crashed (even AMZN -from $100 to $5).
If you look at the charts of the Internet stocks during 1997-2000, they looked peachy and projected fundamentals (at least of  AMZN, EBAy, etc) were even better than expected. Still everything crashed.

Granted, those stocks did not have a 'halving engine' beneath them and maybe this would be a critical factor.
However, litecoin (not bitcoin) has similar halving process, yet it crashed very badly AFTER undergoing halving recently (albeit it was rising toward halving). Maybe it does not count because it is a minor coin, but arguing that halving works only on one entity is presumptuous.

TL;DR The upcoming halving would be a huge test of the 'halving engine' and S/F guideline idea. Fingers crossed.

Gosh Biodom.   Shocked Shocked Shocked

You have a tendency to be overly skeptical regarding the bullish case for bitcoin, and even the realistic case regarding what is really going on here, in bitcoinlandia.  

If I did not see you on a regular basis in this here thread (and tending to NOT spout any nonsense about shitcoins), I would speculate that you are susceptible to getting lured into some altcoin or some other nonsense.    Huh     Huh

LOL... i might get lured into selling a bit of btc and buying a beemer, but not into buying altcoins with btc proceeds.
That would be stupid, all things considered.
You can call me long term bullish. I was bearish when we went down hard from 13.8 and sold a  little around there (12-13K interval) while predicting 8k, which you, incidentally, poo-pooed repeatedly. Who was right in that very instance? A rhetorical question.

Now, my thesis is that 6-12 mo after halving planB's idea would be tested. It would either succeed or fail.
As a scientist, I am used to the falsification of ideas as an essential method of finding the truth (strictly speaking, rather falsification of the hypothesis).
At the moment, I am skeptical that he is right. Why? Because no other market behaves in a predictable fashion.
However, the chance of planB success is non-zero and I root for him. My portfolio would be thankful as well.

It is entirely predictable that the SP500 will be higher than it is today in 20 years time.  

All rational markets are predictable given a long enough time frame.

Given, we can argue all day long whether Bitcoin is a rational market.  

No, it is not (SP500). SP500 1 Jan 1929 - 24.86, SP500 1949-15.36 (61.7% of 20 year earlier value).
Nikkei- 38916 in 1989 (30 years ago!), 21597 now (55.5% of the value thirty years ago).
If anything, my favorite scenario would be Dow going to 39K (a la Nikkei), then down by 50-60% and fluctuating around there for 10-15 years.
It might happen, but I am not betting on it...I am mostly long equities in a smaller than previously % of the portfolio.
4017  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 08, 2019, 02:19:15 AM
*incoherent ranting*


Yes.  About a year and a half ago, pretty much Hairy admitted that he was relying on fractal comparisons, and surely I have been vocally critical of such fractal comparison reliances, even though they have largely been playing out - with, of course, some upwards deviation with our 3.5x outburst from April 1 to end of June, and currently what appears to be a return to the mean of the fractal... So whatever the fuck lack of comparison seems to still be working out in a very comparable way.


So, maybe there has never been such a system in the world, but who fucking cares?  It still has worked out quite well in bitcoin for a lot of us BTC HODLers and accumulators to be continuing to become richie and to increase our richness through the fact that BTC prices continue to go up in the longer term.. just like the silly fucking ass fractal comparisons seem to suggest.  Go figure?  

Now you roach, on the other hand, have had some mediocre gold price appreciation during this calendar year (which has gotten you all excited, and even a bit more cocky than usual), and maybe you should be taking advantage of that mediocre gold price appreciation and getting into a real future asset.. ie bitcoin?  dumb ass.

There is no TA comparison in legacy financial markets because there is no comparable asset in legacy financial markets.

There is no financial instrument with fixed supply to be paid out over a century where the rate of supply halves every four years as regular as the Olympics.  It is this regular drum beat that causes us to pound out the same patterns.  Yes the drum beat will get weaker over time as inflation falls away, but it is strong now and will remain strong through this halvening and likely the next.

I have spoken to investment bankers at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan who do TA on Bitcoin and in their arrogance they have never heard of the halvening.   So they can’t plan for it and they can’t front run it.   Even among retail investors, most of whom are focused on chasing shitcoins, they have no understanding of how the entire market is run by the drum beat of Daddy Bitcoin.

We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.  



I agree that we have halving knowledge, but here comes the test...
If this time around halving and S/F extension to above 50 (closer to gold) would produce 55K-90K prices (conservatively), THEN our position was truly privileged. If not, then it is still mostly random fluctuation. I hope for the former and I am keenly aware of the latter.

Most of you were probably not around the Internet bubble 1. In 1997-2000 it was simply great. No matter what you bought (out of major and even minor Internet stocks), you were doing great. Then came B2B Internet stocks and early biotechs (with no product) that inflated to tens of billions almost from the get go.
Anyone investing in these stocks has seen only a tremendous bull.
Then it all crashed (even AMZN -from $100 to $5).
If you look at the charts of the Internet stocks during 1997-2000, they looked peachy and projected fundamentals (at least of  AMZN, EBAy, etc) were even better than expected. Still everything crashed.

Granted, those stocks did not have a 'halving engine' beneath them and maybe this would be a critical factor.
However, litecoin (not bitcoin) has similar halving process, yet it crashed very badly AFTER undergoing halving recently (albeit it was rising toward halving). Maybe it does not count because it is a minor coin, but arguing that halving works only on one entity is presumptuous.

TL;DR The upcoming halving would be a huge test of the 'halving engine' and S/F guideline idea. Fingers crossed.

Gosh Biodom.   Shocked Shocked Shocked

You have a tendency to be overly skeptical regarding the bullish case for bitcoin, and even the realistic case regarding what is really going on here, in bitcoinlandia.  

If I did not see you on a regular basis in this here thread (and tending to NOT spout any nonsense about shitcoins), I would speculate that you are susceptible to getting lured into some altcoin or some other nonsense.    Huh     Huh

LOL... i might get lured into selling a bit of btc and buying a beemer, but not into buying altcoins with btc proceeds.
That would be stupid, all things considered.
You can call me long term bullish. I was bearish when we went down hard from 13.8 and sold a  little around there (12-13K interval) while predicting 8k, which you, incidentally, poo-pooed repeatedly. Who was right in that very instance? A rhetorical question.

Now, my thesis is that 6-12 mo after halving planB's idea would be tested. It would either succeed or fail.
As a scientist, I am used to the falsification of ideas as an essential method of finding the truth (strictly speaking, rather falsification of the hypothesis).
At the moment, I am skeptical that he is right. Why? Because no other market behaves in a predictable fashion.
However, the chance of planB success is non-zero and I root for him. My portfolio would be thankful as well.
4018  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 07, 2019, 10:19:13 PM
*incoherent ranting*


Yes.  About a year and a half ago, pretty much Hairy admitted that he was relying on fractal comparisons, and surely I have been vocally critical of such fractal comparison reliances, even though they have largely been playing out - with, of course, some upwards deviation with our 3.5x outburst from April 1 to end of June, and currently what appears to be a return to the mean of the fractal... So whatever the fuck lack of comparison seems to still be working out in a very comparable way.


So, maybe there has never been such a system in the world, but who fucking cares?  It still has worked out quite well in bitcoin for a lot of us BTC HODLers and accumulators to be continuing to become richie and to increase our richness through the fact that BTC prices continue to go up in the longer term.. just like the silly fucking ass fractal comparisons seem to suggest.  Go figure?  

Now you roach, on the other hand, have had some mediocre gold price appreciation during this calendar year (which has gotten you all excited, and even a bit more cocky than usual), and maybe you should be taking advantage of that mediocre gold price appreciation and getting into a real future asset.. ie bitcoin?  dumb ass.

There is no TA comparison in legacy financial markets because there is no comparable asset in legacy financial markets.

There is no financial instrument with fixed supply to be paid out over a century where the rate of supply halves every four years as regular as the Olympics.  It is this regular drum beat that causes us to pound out the same patterns.  Yes the drum beat will get weaker over time as inflation falls away, but it is strong now and will remain strong through this halvening and likely the next.

I have spoken to investment bankers at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan who do TA on Bitcoin and in their arrogance they have never heard of the halvening.   So they can’t plan for it and they can’t front run it.   Even among retail investors, most of whom are focused on chasing shitcoins, they have no understanding of how the entire market is run by the drum beat of Daddy Bitcoin.

We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.  



I agree that we have halving knowledge, but here comes the test...
If this time around halving and S/F extension to above 50 (closer to gold) would produce 55K-90K prices (conservatively), THEN our position was truly privileged. If not, then it is still mostly random fluctuation. I hope for the former and I am keenly aware of the latter.

Most of you were probably not around the Internet bubble 1. In 1997-2000 it was simply great. No matter what you bought (out of major and even minor Internet stocks), you were doing great. Then came B2B Internet stocks and early biotechs (with no product) that inflated to tens of billions almost from the get go.
Anyone investing in these stocks has seen only a tremendous bull.
Then it all crashed (even AMZN -from $100 to $5).
If you look at the charts of the Internet stocks during 1997-2000, they looked peachy and projected fundamentals (at least of  AMZN, EBAy, etc) were even better than expected. Still everything crashed.

Granted, those stocks did not have a 'halving engine' beneath them and maybe this would be a critical factor.
However, litecoin (not bitcoin) has similar halving process, yet it crashed very badly AFTER undergoing halving recently (albeit it was rising toward halving). Maybe it does not count because it is a minor coin, but arguing that halving works only on one entity is presumptuous.

TL;DR The upcoming halving would be a huge test of the 'halving engine' and S/F guideline idea. Fingers crossed.
4019  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2019, 08:24:10 PM
Damn Lambie was wrong 7995

Nope, read my post again Goose, I said we are going somewhere between 6-7k in October.

$6500 would be roughly 0.8 Mayer's multiple.
Historically, it would be a good place to buy, but no guarantees.
4020  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2019, 07:15:35 PM
50 SMA is falling, but the 200 SMA is rising so just wait and be ready  Grin
Cross is incoming

like we didn't know
this already, trade and lose
suggestion dismissed
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