Which comment is the sensible one? Is it the one who says the delay is a great chance to order more ASICs with granny's christmas money? Or is it the one where they guy thinks there's a conspiracy and the fab is holding back ASICs to mine with them themselves? Some dealt with the news better than others? I think some just lost their mind. Perhaps they have been driven insane by the waiting. I believe there is a thread on their forums for exactly that....I forget the link at this time. |
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I actually see it as very good news. I just wonder if these are complete renders. (As in detailed) The good news I can gather from their renders is that the solution Tom has gone with is extremely simple scalability. His board is the same in every direction. As in a uniform design. So if he wanted to, he could probably just make a bigger board and scale his hashing power in clusters. If he would put in some controlling logic like BFL did with their boards (for the tethered/interconnected boards of the mini rig), he would be able to scale his hashing units to an incredible degree. |
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It's almost as though you're suggesting that Josh was being dishonest(gasp) when he suggested that BFL could still ship products before the end of the year!
NO, it's just that in the midst of his intense anger, he has miscalculated and forwarded the wrong time frame to his customers. We should never forget that he is indeed human. Perhaps.   Edit: He will no doubt remedy it after he realizes the time frame is incorrect. (We all hope?) |
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P.S. This by the way, says that Avalon was correct when they said that the chips take a helluva lot of time to be fabbed.
The "Full Custom" + 65nm = taking its toll in terms of time.
Folks, this is why the other 2 chose much bigger processes. They are older and the bugs easier to surmount. (And alot cheaper!)
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well, i finally requested a refund from bfl.
we'll see how long it will take them to process it.
Just like Pirates Ponzi all its going to take is enough refund orders for them to disappear. Oh I know what you mean. When I read creativex repost of what the BFL rep said.....one thought came to mind. A fab worker at the other end of the line with a conversation like this: [Imaginary on my part, of course] BFL: What is the latest update? Fab: Well, it is going well. BFL: Is it done yet? Fab: No, but it will be done soon. You know, we don't want to screw up fabbing your "?hand routed?" chip. BFL: But the chips are made with a really expensive mask that costs a few million. The mask is just a glorified light filter to produce microelectronics.... Fab: Sir, don't patronize us. BFL: Uh sorry. So... Fab: So? BFL: So, when will the chips be ready? Fab: You know, these things take time. It's not like this is a process governed by physics and stringent mathematics. Geez. BFL: Oh, I guess your right? Fab: We are always right. [30 seconds of silence on the phone] BFL: So when will the chips be ready, our customers are "impatient". Fab: When they are ready, Sir. BFL: So is it like 10 days? Fab: No, that sounds like it would be too soon. BFL: Maybe 15 days? Fab: No, that sounds like it would be too soon. BFL: Maybe.... Fab: Lets say, 30 days and call it a day? Sounds good? BFL: Wait, was that a question or a statement? FAB: [Ripping up the BFL contract in the background, specifying the Jan 24th deadline.] BFL: What was that noise just now? Fab: Huh? What noise? Look we don't want to lose any money on making your very dense and very "hand routed" chips. These are complex devices you know. We have to sign off on these multi-layered processes so we can protect ourselves from doing them at our cost! BFL: I understand. [Sobbing in the background] Fab: Listen your a nice guy and all, but keep in mind you still have to wait for us to ship the final "naked" chips to the chip packing company of your choice. That is another 7 days for 100,000 chips. Fab: Then you have to wait for the chip packaging farm to ship them to you overseas. That is at least 5 to 10 days for a pallet. On top of that you will have to send your final pallet of packaged chips, once they arrive at your door, to your assembly plant to have SMT machines put your boards and chips together. That can be anywhere from 3 days to 15. BFL: [Starts to sweat profusely, then sobs loudly] Fab: [Fab guy talks over the sounds of sobbing] Then you have to wait for the completed assembly to arrive back at your door. So that is about 5 to 10 days. Fab: Then you have to put these together on your own final assembly line, package them and out for shipping. That is maybe anywhere from: 20+30 days = 50 days at best. 40+30 days = 70 days at worst. Fab: Cheer up, just tell your customers of only the fab delay. And don't allude too strongly that we are still only at the stage of fabbing your chip. Usually our customers' clients are too dumb to realize what that actually means. It'll all work out. Just dole out the delays nice and slow, not all at once. God no. Fab: [Hearty Laugh] BFL: [ Hangs up the phone, starts typing up the forum message to let his customers know what is going to go down. ] ---------------------- That is what it went down like in my overly creative imagination. |
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Email is addressable and "directed" at a customer.
Forum posts are not "addressable" so there is no "directed notice" being given. (A customer of a vendor may, for example, never visit the BFL forums. Jody [BFL rep] once mentioned [supposedly] most of BFLs customers don't come from the forums in an email.)
Anyway, that is my speculative take on it.
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Doesn't Avalon have their own forum site, like the other vendors? You might have better luck there.
I can't remember the site offhand...
Found it: http://forum.bitsyn.com/Not much activity tho. Still as I mentioned before, currently doing website overhaul, but understandably with the recent developments ( ASICs aside ), the mere website has been put into the back burner, but I am drafting up news letters for people with the next round of hardware updates, in addition with the recent paperwork update I gave out. Are the newsletters written up? |
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Why haven't customers been issued prompt refunds in accordance with FTC regulation?
Unfortunately the regulation part deals with shipping delays after their "official" ship date, which last time I checked (a while ago) was January 1st. Other than that, people can apparently get refunds at any time if they ask before the 1st. I believe you misunderstood. The current policy is that they are refunding on a "case by case" basis. This is a voluntary effort on BFL's part. When [err...IF] January 1st passes, they no longer have a voluntary "case by case" review. Any and all customers at that point can demand a refund and BFL is obligated to give one. (as in, not voluntary). By January 1st [2013)you either have a rig in your hands, or you can demand a refund. Its what the BFL rep mentioned a while back. (Use the search feature folks!) ---------------------------- The reason why the 1st of January is supposedly "the deadline" date, it is because they set their original time frame to October 2012. (60 days later...November/December) |
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One, the current website is Wordpress and I loathe Wordpress thus I tend to avoid trying to update it.
Two, the new website should be rolled out soon, so updating the old one has taken a back seat to other issues. See point one.
Good thing Inaba isn't a programmer Uh, he is, just not that kind of programmer. Actually by most accounts of the people whom complain about his pool...not a very good one. |
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And yet another series of dismissive comments from a BFL rep (on the topic of Avalon): I was suppose to get more info yesterday (Friday) but the liason had nothing for me at COB, so it should be Monday that I have the confirmation from the fab... I am equally tired of the confirmation being pushed back as everyone else, believe me. Regardless, to answer your question(s), I would not say your estimate is accurate. We are still scheduled to ship prior to Avalons tentative shipping date as of right now. Although the more I look at the documents Avalon provided and other information out there, I think they may be optimistic... but time will tell there.
Keep in mind that just because I don't have positive confirmation with regards to the date from the fab, it doesn't mean things aren't moving along there... it just means I haven't gotten positive confirmation from the people who have the final say in what the date will be. The engineers run on a different schedule than bureaucracy, unfortunately (or fortunately). I posted that other thread in lieu of a BFL update until I have something concrete to offer... ugh, I have a giant pack of information I want to spill, but I'm really hesitant to spill it right now, because if anything changes I catch seven kinds of hell! Until everything is finalized and in the pipe, I don't want to put it out there and have to retract it later.
There's going to be lots of juicy information that will affect a lot of people for the better.
I promise I'm not pulling a Tom here and saying there's lots of good information coming soon and then never delivering - I will deliver on it. There are definitely no 11th hour rugs being pulled out from under anyone without explanation either. "Earliest date to expect delivery January 25th?"Link: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/511-earliest-date-expect-delivery-january-25th.html#post7581 |
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Judge them by what they do, and that is issue refunds in a satisfactory manner. Not some website page written in an hour or twoto sound fancy.
Yeah, I wish they'd polish up the website with new pics, better info, updated dates etc... and for Satoshi's sake, why is the production update so out of date? If Josh / Inaba would spend as much time fixing the site as he puts into defending against troll attacks over here, it might even have an updated pic of the SC Single's case design in place of the current main page pic (a FPGA single board with heatsink). A scam would be more polished than the currently neglected BFL home page. Two reasons: One, the current website is Wordpress and I loathe Wordpress thus I tend to avoid trying to update it. Two, the new website should be rolled out soon, so updating the old one has taken a back seat to other issues. See point one. Inaba, I didn't know a new site was in the works. I have a problem with the "see point one." It has caused me to go into an endless loop because when I am done with point two, I then read point one again and have to continue to point two. It makes me really aware of how much you loathe Wordpress though. Hilarious! |
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Avalon still on schedule for Jan 14?
yep  When does the next update happen? (The one refering to the actual hardware of Avalon?) And Any comments on BFL's latest rants about your hardware? Are you the turtle and are they the hare? |
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That's pretty clear. That's not just a typo. Read it again. non·re·fund·able. What refund requests will not be honored?
Maybe you can track down someone with actual company authority to clarify the policy. Is Sonny still around, or has he skipped the country again? Wow, we've managed to find someone more devoid of intelligence than PuertoLibre, congrats! False, you definitely looked int the mirror at some point this year. I'd also hate to be in your shoes when you [potentially] tell your customers that your fab contract may have not produced anything worth writing home about. Then again, you might surprise us all on the 24th. I left some room to still believe in your COO expertise. ---------------------- Contiguous failure does eat away at the best of souls. You probably need people to cheer you on at this point. |
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@ Slok
Actually, if you want, you can pester Avalon about the hard questions. I'll back you up. I am interested in the info. As long as you have a good line of questioning, I'll follow through.
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BFL used to assist them in this, just until very recently, they no longer do.
It's THEIR business, not yours. They can do WHATEVER THE FUCK they want in regards to shipment resells. What's so hard to understand?! A lot, that's why he started with "[Speculative post]". Or fits "probably" and "highly unlikely, but...." in every second sentence, or similar words. "bfl asic roi takes forever", show the calculation it doesn't and you get "I'll get back to you", or some similar escape, and never see him back . So save yourselves a lot of time, there's an ignore button under every user's name. FRIZZ23 - Guaranteed 23 identities at least! - Pre-Order Yours Today! No charge at all!`````` 24/7 - 100% totally devoted trolling! - go check him or one of his other identities @ Bitcointalk.org-Forums`````` @ Slok/Dob I am looking at your sigs and that pretty much says it all to me. Dob is freaking out, reason unknown. @ Slok To officially get back to you. The charts that were kindly posted [by another user on BitcoinTalk.org] roughly showed (assuming I read it right?) that an Avalon ROI was in about 2.5 months. Though that seems like good news. I am very skeptical until I see the actual real world numbers. Some people are optimistic and other are not nearly as optimistic. It depends what the conditions ultimately are when you get your preferred device. I am the type of person who assumes the worst, but hopes for the best. Now that I have gotten back to you on that, you can't hold it over my head any longer. Your view of ROI is optimistic. Mine is pessimistic. Hopefully we can agree on that much. You are talking about organoforti's charts, before that I showed a 60watt Single even making profit/making power cost back at 1000x difficulty, organoforti showed it even gave one at over a billion times! A 400watt unit stops giving roi/making power cost back around 150x increase. About 6 times less. From what I saw on the chart, it's true what you claim. (assuming we both understood the chart correctly?) The chart shows that the divergence between rigs really starts at about 2.5 years from now. At which point the operating cost becomes relevant because the devices cost as much as they produce. (sort of like an equilibrium being reached). If I recall the charts colors from memory, they implied that BFL's device has a life span of about 6 more months than that of the Avalon. (marginal profit of course) So taken into that context, its not the rainbows we see painted for us in the sales pitch. But there is a rainbow in there...somewhere. My sig, btw, is a lottery ticket for the weekly draw for a free little Single. Do you really think my tone or content of my posts would differ without it? Does your avatar stops you from making sense? (Now I'm not saying you make any, most of the time my opinion is you don't!  ) Well, you do have a point. My avatar does not enter me into any contests. I don't get any free stuff promised to me by a vendor at the end of the week. Nor has Avalon ever promised me any incentives (unfortunately). Do you think if I entered into the contest for a BFL little Single Josh would allow it? I technically no longer qualify as a human being you know! ------------------------------ As for whether your tone would change if you did drop out of the free lottery, I unfortunately do not have any idea. I can only assume a free device may change your opinions and bias, but I do not know that for sure. (people are different from one another) If Avalon had a raffle I would probably be in it. Would I talk about them any better than say Tom? I dunno. Does talking about a company shadyness disqualify people in these contests? I ask them (Avalon) the same questions (or intend to) as I ask Josh or that of Tom. They [Avalon] are kind of tame in their responses though. Not nearly as interesting or inventive. Not much in terms of rebuttals, scathing attacks or anything like that sort. They just answer the question and seemingly don't change their story every month. They are pretty boring folk now that I think of it. |
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Enough profit so that even at 400watts they will be able to pay off the year of electricity use in less than a day. Thats IF, it stays at 400watts by the next update. Which should be soon I hope.
Dream on, you'll need a 60w unit to achieve that, but it would happen in half a day. For a 400w Avalon, at $0.10 a kwh that's 9.6kw a day = $0.96 x 365 = $350.40 a year. So not even at today's difficulty "they will be able to pay off the year of electricity use in less than a day". More like 3 days, IF you strike blocks as any mining calculator suggests. Which no-one will. At 4x difficulty that's 11 days for the power (at $0.10/kwh) and 40 weeks for the device. If the difficulty stays a 4x, which it won't. I stand corrected! It's actually 3 Days.  |
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BFL used to assist them in this, just until very recently, they no longer do.
It's THEIR business, not yours. They can do WHATEVER THE FUCK they want in regards to shipment resells. What's so hard to understand?! A lot, that's why he started with "[Speculative post]". Or fits "probably" and "highly unlikely, but...." in every second sentence, or similar words. "bfl asic roi takes forever", show the calculation it doesn't and you get "I'll get back to you", or some similar escape, and never see him back . So save yourselves a lot of time, there's an ignore button under every user's name. FRIZZ23 - Guaranteed 23 identities at least! - Pre-Order Yours Today! No charge at all!`````` 24/7 - 100% totally devoted trolling! - go check him or one of his other identities @ Bitcointalk.org-Forums`````` @ Slok/Dob I am looking at your sigs and that pretty much says it all to me. Dob is freaking out, reason unknown. @ Slok To officially get back to you. The charts that were kindly posted [by another user on BitcoinTalk.org] roughly showed (assuming I read it right?) that an Avalon ROI was in about 2.5 months. Though that seems like good news. I am very skeptical until I see the actual real world numbers. Some people are optimistic and other are not nearly as optimistic. It depends what the conditions ultimately are when you get your preferred device. I am the type of person who assumes the worst, but hopes for the best. Now that I have gotten back to you on that, you can't hold it over my head any longer. Your view of ROI is optimistic. Mine is pessimistic. Hopefully we can agree on that much. |
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... resulting in a net increase in network hashing power between 5 - 10 TH by my estimations. So even if Avalon shipped tomorrow, it would not throw difficulty out of whack too far ...
Sounds like damage control to me. BFL/Josh has come a long way from "kill-em-all jet fighter pilot first ASICs on the market nuke everyone else rarara" to "OK we might not be the first ones but it does not matter ... OK we suck but everyone else sucks too". Lame, seriously lame. You noticed it too, huh? When the rep is on the defensive it is because he is worried about the competition. Hes done it to Tom, now to Avalon. ...before Avalon runs into Chinese New Year and everything is on hold for a month...
Oh! I am sure that at least here BFL will be the first one! The first one to use the "unusual long Chinese New Year"-story as another excuse why they can't ship their ASICs <shrug> Imagine if Avalon does ship first. The panic...the panic... What he failed to mention is that Avalon customers will probably not affect difficulty, true. But that just means they might have made the right choice and will be mining green heaven. While his own customers sit and watch their computer screens for the next delay...Enough profit so that even at 400watts they will be able to pay off the year of electricity use in less than a day. Thats IF, it stays at 400watts by the next update. Which should be soon I hope. |
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Lets see what BFL will draw next 
