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4041  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2014, 03:38:18 AM
Thanks to all the "Voltaires" who asked me to continue posting even though they disagree with my views. 

I would like to reply to everybody who posted comments on my posts, positive or negative; but there have been too many of them, and besides it would be irritating for many of you, boring for many others.  Again, that is not why I am reading and posting to this forum.

Let me just emphasize that I distinguish "promoting the bitcoin project" from "convincing people to invest in bitcoin".

I am afraid that this note is too long already. Thanks for your attention. I sincerely wish you all the best.


Hope we didn't scare you off. You have an interest, that's a start. I recommend you pick up a small (tiny) amount as that tends to focus attention. I agree with the questionability as an investment. It could all fail horribly. I happen to believe it won't but I don'd discount it as a distinct possibility.

For my own part, I have been in computers since before it was called IT. I have followed and been involved with technology through 8 bit micros, the internet, the web and P2P technologies and I have a decent working knowledge of cryptography. For the past 13 years, I have been delving into Austrian economics and dissecting other schools of economics. I had heard of Bitcoin a couple of times and just dismissed it as some daft scammy idea presumably being run out of some low-rent website. Then I sat down and read about it (I can't even remember why) and everything slid into place. Between my solid understanding of technology and my (arguably disputable) understanding of economics, it looked like a technology set to take the world by storm. It wasn't a question of investing, it was a case of here was something cheap that was going to cost more to get into further down the road. I bought a modest amount, less than I could afford but I'm glad I did.

Now? I still think there's a lot of growth in the future. But I don't push people to buy. They should determine for themselves what is prudent. (I do give free samples though. *Evil laugh*)

A lot of the exuberance you see here when the price is rising is not about investments gaining in value (though yes, that is a lot of it), a fair chunk of it is because it means Bitcoin is gaining ground.

4042  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2014, 05:38:10 PM
4043  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2014, 04:28:53 PM
So that bitcoin can eventually run him over LOL.


FTFY. Choo choo.
4044  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2014, 04:26:10 PM

Plus, you ignore one thing: it's good to have a genuine "bear" who doesn't resort to idiotic FUD posts and trolling. Say what you want, but jorge *argues* for this (bearish) position, even if you don't agree with his arguments in the end.

I don't mind a good bear. Even some of the trolls are worth a read. It just rubs be the wrong way when someone comes in and doesn't give "Why won't (debunked reason X) affect the price/adoption/whatever of Bitcoin?" but puts it in the form of "I am an expert (i.e. too important to actually do any reading on the subject) and (debunked reason X) means bitcoin will fail and you are all stupid. And your little dog too"
4045  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2014, 04:13:50 PM

Getting tougher to see a good end here. This is basically skipping town. I mean, if they were going to pull through would they not realize that moving their office address in the middle of this fiasco is a horrible PR move? I guess if we want to make an excuse, they have been getting "near death threats" and people are beginning to go to their office to challenge them. But.... shutting down operations and moving doesn't look good at all.

I don't doubt that they have been getting real death threats. Possibly even Mark found a mouse's head in his frappuccino
4046  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2014, 04:10:21 PM

I hate banks and I am aware that the world's financial system is a humongous runaway Ponzi scheme (in the strict sense of the word).  You will find that among my tweets.

But I do not see how cryptocoins will save us from it.  They too are fiat money, or rather wannabe fiat money for now. Since one cannot prevent new coins from being started, they will be inflationary too.  New cryptos will be created for the same reason that governments print more money and banks fabricate credit withou assets: because it makes the creator richer at the expense of the users.

And "selling" bitcoin as a safe hedge against inflation, at the present time, makes no sense at all. 

Key difference: You have no choice but to use government money (well, not completely true anymore). You have the choice not to use the scamcoins. There may be a crypto-coin which pushes out Bitcoin, there may eventually be several different crypto coins which fill different niches, possibly some even inflationary but the presence of alt-coins does not imply inflation in-and-of itself since they are not fungible.

4047  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2014, 04:03:02 PM
I will no longer consider you a delusional hypocrite.


I think that's rather harsh and ad hominem.

The last few pages have been some of the most interesting and enlightening I've ever seen on this thread and I commend Jorge for being (sincerely) provocative...we need more "Po" and less linear, uniformed thinking.

His posts are all rehashes of old complaints that have been debunked ad-nauseum. There are some genuine criticisms of Bitcoin to be made (though I have heard most of those already) and undoubtedly a few new ones yet to see the light of day. This "academic" is just posting like a noob. It borders on the trollish but I'll give the benefit of the doubt and put it down to arrogance.
4048  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2014, 03:49:05 PM
What you are talking about is simply not true. Of course, bitcoin is a zero sum game - BUT so is every other kind of higher value asset: Gold, Diamonds and even luxury cars.

Even this is not true. Trades are typically made because each party values what they are receiving more than what they are parting with. Hence non-zero sum. Of course, there are scenarios where either party may be mislead or deluded which negate this but these will tend to be fewer and rare.

Of course, if one assumes that Bitcoin brings no actual value to the table and is purely a speculative investment then it applies but it is not. I won't bore everyone with the reasons (blockchain, distributed etc) because that has been done to death many, many times over and anyone who comes into this thread who hasn't educated themselves on the subject should be ashamed. Triply so if they are supposed to be some kind of academic.
4049  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2014, 03:33:02 PM
Didn't know that Jorge is an acclaimed professor with a honorable wikipedia page!  Shocked

And yet... Doesn't know the definition of a Ponzi scheme. An imposter maybe?
4050  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2014, 02:57:21 PM
Often I see here complaints about orders suddenly appearing from nowhere in order books, or statements like "there are only XXX coins left to {buy|sell} on exchange YYY".

The books at the larger sites must be huge (millions of entries perhaps), and each chart site in the world requests that data every few seconds.

Correct me if I am wrong, but those exchanges surely must truncate their answers, delivering only the first N (say, 2000) bids and asks in their order books.  

Gox does, Stamp doesn't (Though I believe a full dataset is available from Gox but on a restricted timetable). If you look back at Chartbuddy (which you can't cause I now delete old images), the Gox charts would look "hairy" due to their truncation algorithm whereas for Stamp, I had to do the truncation myself so I could give it a nice, neat haircut.
4051  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2014, 06:01:26 PM
What i mean is that price going from the ~300 to 412 after the update, and then down to 250 without any new info, just somewhat illogical.

I would be thinking that if there are people who think that their coins are gone - they should've sold their coins days ago, not now

I agree with you, but you know the old saying: markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Yeah, but the guy who first said that was a tit.
4052  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2014, 01:53:25 PM
Actually it is production that creates wealth and production is stimulated by consumption.
When world currency would be deflationary then consumption will slow because everyone will be motivated to hold onto their money, not to use it on consumption. That in turn means that production will slow down and that actually means less wealth to everyone.

Broken window fallacy. Don't just know it, understand it. Then you might understand why production and consumption are not worthy goals in and of themselves.
4053  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2014, 05:05:19 AM
Bitcoin source code doesn't bring anything new to the table, [...] innovative idea.


Do you even dictionary?
4054  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2014, 02:59:13 PM
Actually - allowing limited withdrawals makes sense - they must fear a 'run' on BTC either crashing the exchange (with it's new software fix being untested, too) - or meaning they have so little liquidity that their business is finished.

Allowing 'some' withdrawals will mean people wish to hold BTC instead of Fiat, which will inflate the price on Gox, and at this point, some people might decide to stay.

If Gox is clever, it will still have a business left.   Don't get me wrong - I will be the first in the queue to get out, but it is a logical solution.

I did think this was their only logical way out (assuming they really do intend to stay in the game).


The thing is, it is not Gox's money to control. It belongs to the people whose accounts it is credited to. To maintain confidence, Gox should be doing everything they can to allow people to access their money. They're not.
4055  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2014, 02:47:36 PM
Thursday update:  we have successfully downloaded half the block chain.  

But ran out of disk space. We have a new hard drive on order from Newegg.
4056  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2014, 02:29:52 PM

This week has demonstrated how one man, who owns a badly run Exchange but has a good PR team, can do massive damage to BTC.




Bill Gates?
4057  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2014, 02:26:16 PM

1) don't get bit
2) kill blow to the head
etc

heh......

Searing


Return of the Living Dead zombies?
4058  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 09:30:47 PM
Most people do not realize that it is their fault for letting Bitcoin cultists deceive them with their kool aid but they will instead say that Mark Karpeles is at fault, exactly! It is human nature.

It is not Bitcoin that is at fault though. Would you suggest those who were victims of Madhoff blame dollar enthusiasts?
I am talking about the fact that Bitcoin halved in value. Bitcoin is not at fault, but the cultists (oblivious to ANY probable bottlenecks!) here and on r/Bitcoin have played their part in inflating the bubble as hard as they can in the first place.

Yes, that /is/ not a good attitude to have but is somewhat orthogonal to the current Gox-induced implosion.
4059  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 09:18:55 PM
Most people do not realize that it is their fault for letting Bitcoin cultists deceive them with their kool aid but they will instead say that Mark Karpeles is at fault, exactly! It is human nature.

It is not Bitcoin that is at fault though. Would you suggest those who were victims of Madhoff blame dollar enthusiasts?
4060  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 09:13:02 PM

I agree. This isn't Silk Road guys; if we want to be treated like legitimate investors, we can't talk about assassinating people who owe us money.

Yeah. Legit investors keep quiet about the hits.
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