Unless you have a method to normalize this problem then you can win, there is no "known" method out there or it is private / unreleased There's no way you can do that Unless you can either skew the odds in your favor somehow or know what the next bet result will be (against the odds). Both of these cases assume exploiting some bug in the system. Otherwise, it would be equal to saying that the outcomes are not truly random but closer to a normal distribution (or whatever other than random). In simple words, you can't do that as long as we are talking about truly random bets as that would pretty much remove randomness (read, you are not a god) Bug exploit can't be done here, unless to took over the control of the server and providing server seeds to yourself but in this case it is hacked not exploit, so no consideration You got my point, didn't you? If you can hack into the server, you can just steal the coins there without all the fuss of changing odds in your favor. Regarding normalizing distribution in some pure math way, that's not gonna happen in this universe. Otherwise, you would be changing the fabric of reality, but then changing odds in dice at some obscure online casino will definitely be the least of your concerns and interests |
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The market is very close to crossing daily MACD into positive, this is usually a good reason for a pump.
My advice, don't buy the top of the (possible) pump, it could be a bull trap.
It'll be a bull trap. I'll definitely be selling into signs of weakness. Even if the bottom is officially in, we have loads of resistance to work through that'll provide ample pullback for reentry. Anything in the upper $4,000s to lower $5,000s would be a good time to sell You are still fighting the last war When you should arm yourself for the new one. And the new one will be fought in the land of altcoins with Bitcoin being stuck in the 3k-4k range for likely a very long time (as the ceiling is slowly going down). Technically, that's not a bad thing on its own as we will see more speculative money being poured into altcoins (and Litecoin seems to be the first to suck in that money). This time, Bitcoin may actually turn into a store of value (even though I can't fully accept this thought myself yet) |
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To be precise they’re moving to paper gold, which is NOT physical gold, that’s definitely going to hurt crypto because more money will be moved into nothing but a imaginary gold. Unless you’re talking about trading bitcoin for physical gold going offline, not trading some contract gold otc.
Calling it imaginary gold is taking it a bit too far. When buying gold securities you are ALWAYS able to exchange it to actual gold That in fact remains to be seen As it seems there is a difference between being (allegedly) able to redeem paper gold and actually redeeming it for physical metal. Basically, we don't know whether these gold securities are backed by real gold, end of story. As the saying goes, the proof of the pudding is in eating. The same is equally true with paper gold, i.e. unless every holder of these securities tries to exchange them for the shiny bullion, we can't actually say if you are always able to redeem them fully. Real gold run will likely cause a domino effect of defaults |
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Many peoples said that there is resemblance between those two years, but it's just a prediction and some wishes from people, which will be great if it's true, but in reality we need to see the market conditions how interested people in putting the funds into crypto, until now the sign of growing still hasn't been seen
There was exotically same at start of 2015. Zero growth. Just sideways for more then half of year. Same as last 3 months. Probably same as next half year Today feels completely different I am really curious if people claiming that it is the same had been actually trading back in the day. I was, and what I see now is way different from what I saw in early 2015. Now we barely move a couple percent daily. In 2015 price action was a lot stronger. It basically means that supply as well as demand is now running dry, while in 2015 they were abundant (as I have no other explanation) |
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and don't forget that bitcoin has never stayed low this long, this is a record in both length and size of the drop.
Neither of those things are true. The last crash was significantly longer than how long this one has been so far. If we pass October and the price still hasn't come up from the 3000s bottom then it will be the longest, but we're a good 8 months away from that now. That's if you're talking about the entire duration between bull markets. If you are just saying how long it stayed at the bottom of the market, we're only 3 months in now, in 2015 it spent some 9 months at the bottom, so again not even close to a record. And the size of this drop is just normal, not a record either. So far I believe it's actually slightly less than the last crash, while at least one early crash dropped by over 90% so this isn't close so far Technically, you may be right after all If we use such broad metrics as duration and scale of the drop. But I think we should pay closer attention to details, i.e. how market performs. If you do, you will start to notice major differences between now and then In 2015 there was a lot of both demand and supply so the market was alive. Today it looks mostly dead, apart from irregular and sporadic bursts of activity, up to a point where we can call them convulsions and agony I really don't see what you're talking about. Sure in 2015 Bitcoin made two attempts to break out over the course of 8 or 9 months, rising from low 200s to 300 twice, but we're only 3 months into the current bottom, and its not like there is some rule that the bottom needs to include 50% gain failed breakouts. And it is naturally to expect volatility to be less because volatility has and will continue to go down over time in the long term. The market is 15x bigger than it was in 2015, a bigger beast is harder to move It was not from low 200's As it was more about low 150's (which was in February of that year) and 450's (which was in November). As you can see, the price rose almost 3 times in the span of 9 months, which should now be rising from 3k to 9k to look similar. It's unlikely we are going to see such prices in the coming months (though everything is possible, of course) Regarding market size and trading volumes, you are obviously making a typical mistake by looking at USD volumes while you should actually look at BTC volumes if you want to make correct comparisons how markets perform now and how they performed back in 2015 |
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Another conspiracy theory. It's funny how everyone likes to point out that Bitcoin is decentralized and independent and in the next moment the theory about one person controlling Bitcoin appears. To my opinion this is not possible, not even on the level of influence. Even some influental and powerful groups could hardly influence the Bitcoin price and for individuals this is out of the question I can't say that I completely disagree with you As it mostly depends on what we are to consider "influence" here, i.e. how much of the price change should be considered inconsequential and how much important. In this way, technically anyone can influence the price to a certain degree, but if you mean major changes on the order of dozen percentages, then only a few can do that, for example, top exchanges like Bitfinex (which regularly drive shorters mad by moving prices as much) |
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Look dude, I really don't feel like explaining to you how derivatives and paper gold/coin work and how corrupt and destructive the banking system and Wall Street really are I don't care about how corrupt and destructive Wall Street is It is enough for me to know that they can't corrupt Bitcoin, and that (as I explained above) is likely one of the reasons (if not the sole reason) why they have been staying away from it for so long. In this way, you may continue to make noise (like "it would take a few books to explain it to you"), but it still won't make Bitcoin more corruptible or destructible. Bitcoin is not gold (in this regard), and all your actions with it are public and can be pretty much considered set in stone (e.g. who paid whom and how much) Master card recently propose patent for fractional reserve on bitcoin. This will makes master card creating their own bitcoin paper and as for i know this is not real bitcoin like in market. Maybe i am wrong but its the face how corrupt wall street is It doesn't mean a shit There are literally thousands of totally useless and pointless patents. You can patent something too because you can (but beware of prior art). Kidding aside, if MasterCard patents fractional reserve on bitcoin, it doesn't in the least mean that anyone will be using these paper bitcoins, and definitely not because of the royalties (just like with other such stupid inventions). All in all, it is an exercise in stupidity and futility |
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why do you guys think that's so impossible? why would you assume legacy institutions like ICE have the best of intentions and want to give away potential profits? just because "they believe in bitcoin"? lol, i'm not that gullible It is possible, indeed But you are looking at it without taking into consideration the difference between gold and Bitcoin. again, you're fixating on gold for some reason, but rehypothecation is common practice with virtually all commodities and securities that trade on wall street It is not me. It was not me who brought forth the example of gold, so I was just following someone else's lead. But I agree that it doesn't matter as it might be the same with any other commodity out there. But not with Bitcoin Fractional reserve is possible with gold (as well as everything else) because there is no definitive way to check whether gold certificates (I intentionally avoid using the term paper gold here) are (not) backed up by gold (think of it as exploiting the benefit of doubt). no, that's not the issue. the issue is that fractional reserve is legal. the amount of gold held in the JPM vaults gets periodically inspected by the CFTC staff---doesn't mean there's enough to back the market so firstly, in CFTC-regulated futures markets, contract volumes don't need to be fully backed by the underlying. the bitcoin blockchain doesn't help when CFTC rules don't give a shit about bitcoin's hard cap on supply You don't get my point at all It doesn't matter if Bakkt can legally reuse collateral and whether it is an accounting issue, even if they can and it is. You are missing the whole thing as it is not about believing but solid knowledge that the blockchain provides. No one is going to give a goddamn fuck about Bitcoin certificates unless there is a way to actually see if these certificates are backed by real coins, one by one. You can fool people with gold (or any other commodity) but Bitcoin is different |
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Trading can still be profitable during bear market because not all coins are going down so it is better to learn it while waiting for another bullrun to come. I learned this lesson during the prolonged bear market because the predicted bullrun never materialize last year so I decided to learn trading instead. Trading is more risky then holding and expect some losses during your initial trading Which coins are not going down? If we take long enough timeframes, it will be clear that all coins are going down. Indeed, there are pumps (followed by inevitable dumps) but other than that altcoin prices are following Bitcoin's price action pretty closely. On the other hand, not all coins are born equal as some are more equal than others. They don't fall as much as the rest of the pack, and that's why this bear market is an eye-opener of sorts which allows you to clear see the real potential of a coin, who is to be the winner and who the loser |
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I think that Wall Street will buy ZERO bitcoins during the next few years.
They will make money out of bitcoin backed derivatives trading fees(if bitcoin futures trading ever gets green light).Wall Street is a market,not a company.They don't buy and sell,they let the traders buy and sell and they charge a fee for allowing them to use the platform.
That's exactly what I was thinking. The Wall Street collective has enough cash to buy all the bitcoin in existence several times over--and they can't do that without driving up the price while buying, or down while selling. The only viable solution for them is to bet on the futures markets, just like they do with other currencies & commodities That's what I've been thinking myself And since the Wall Street "collective" (or criminals) can easily buy up all bitcoins out there (at current prices) and do that many times if they choose so, they are not interested in Bitcoin unless, as you rightfully assume, they inflate the Bitcoin derivatives market, which would be orders of magnitude greater than the spot market. But that would be equal to destroying Bitcoin if we assume they can actually do that in the first place (which is not given or certain) |
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there needs to be some sort of smart contract capability where users can automatically find coin swapping liquidity Technically, I agree with you But I don't expect much from it. To give an analogy, it is well known that centralized exchanges are hacked now and then (and sometimes they deliberately scam), so it is basically a matter of time (i.e. not if but when). Everyone knows that. Moreover, many have already lost their money in the past. The solution is known too. It is decentralized exchanges So theoretically you could expect a lot of interest in these exchanges. But somehow there's not much. And I think it will be the same with atomic swaps (either through smart contracts or in some other way), i.e. people won't be interested in these. And that's the reason we are not going to see a lot of development here either |
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Most people here don't care about crypto vs the banks. They just want their bags to be pumped so they can dump for fiat money. There aren't many hardcore libertarian left in bitcoin.
let's be realistic, liberation and financial freedom comes from owning way above average of whatever that majority of people accept as a method of payment one-way or the other. if you are a poor kid and you are not working on it, bitcoin won't help you That looks to me as an inverted tautology It is like saying that if you don't earn money (or generate income in some other way), you are going to remain poor. Or you are poor because you don't earn enough income. Indeed Bitcoin is not going to help you here as you are not earning enough of it. But in this case it is not different form any other means or venue for generating profits (fiat or otherwise) Essentially, it is a truism, something like "buy low and sell high". Other than that, I agree with your point, for example, about financial freedom always being about the quantity ("size does matter after all") |
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This is not bull run yet. Just slight, hardly visible price increase but nothing else. It's not even a sign of upward trend and the price stays more or less in the same range as the past few months.
I know that users actuallly can't wait for green market and rising price but to my opinion nothing significantly will change in the upcoming period. Once the price crosses 6000$ again we might say that we have new bull run We may be misjudging the current market. Obviously, we saw the price rise from below 1k to almost 20k in less than a year. Then we crashed to 3k and that again happened in less than a year. So we are used to this kind of thing, i.e. prices changing a few thousand dollars a month either up or down. That's why such "small" changes appear to us as insignificant. But if these prices are for long, we will soon be happy if Bitcoin rises (or falls, depending on which side of the trade you are on) a few hundred dollars now and then After all, isn't that what we were all dreaming of, i.e. price stability and low volatility? |
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My stomach for risk is really nothing compared to what other people are doing right. I have seen news regarding people selling their cars and houses and sacrifice their life living in a trailer just to buy Bitcoin but for me that is too much of a risk I am willing to take right now. So instead of putting new money in the market I always find the opportunity to short BTC (BTC to FIAT then back to BTC again) to accumulate more at its lower price. I made a few successful attempts but you will only get new BTC in accordance to how much you are holding right now.
Haha I find it funny you said you don't have the stomach for risk but you are shorting bitcoin! That is wayyy too risky for me. Shorting bitcoin near the top of a bubble makes sense if you're happy with how much you've made on the bull run up until then, but shorting at the bottom of the market! Yikes! I'd be way too scared to do that. I'd rather just accumulate, zero risk in that He may not fully understand the risks involved Actually, he may think that he does in fact understand them like the downside is limited and you can't make more profits than that, while the upside is virtually unlimited and the potential losses are constrained only by the size of your balance. But it is one thing to know that and quite a different thing to have felt it with your skin in the game (and your soul at stake, so to speak) |
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It most certainly wouldn't
Moreover, it could even raise a lot of eyebrows and lead to people actually leaving Binance in favor of other exchanges. Why would they want to donate 1/3 of their profits to some clause? It just doesn't sound right, whatever that clause might be. So unless they can actually prove it (that they donate anything at all) and it relates deeply to what traders might feel (which I doubt), there is no way for a massive exodus of clients from other exchanges. No place like home and charity begins there
Let's say that they used this protocol. Let's say that traders chose where the funds should be destined, and lets say that the funds are automatically redirected where traders choose in a transparent, compliant way. Let's say that the impact is real. Would that make traders leave other platforms to go to Binance? Would that make Binance traders leave? Yes, no, why? Now I'm more curious why you are asking these questions And why you are asking them over and over again as you have already asked me a couple days ago and I have already given you a comprehensive answer. Are you a group of individuals pursuing a certain end? If so, what is your agenda here, really? And what does Binance have to do with all this as they are unlikely to implement anything to that tune ever (and that in fact may be a good thing) |
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I don't think the coming halving is our last hope. Even I don't think the crypto market will be pumping like 2017 in this year or next! Because, if the bull market comes right now, what will exactly happen? Selling wall will be far higher than buying orders! But there are no last things in crypto, crypto will live forever until people keep their faith in it.
No, we are definitely going to have another pumping similar to what happened in 2017. But for pumping, they need some reason, right ? You cannot simply expect market to keep on rising because only whales alone cannot manipulate completely. Whales will be triggering and then individual investors will be following them. This is the reason bitcoin must need some attractive news and events so that it will keep on attracting new investors from that we will be having a strong bull run But is Bitcoin about pumping only? As you seem to completely discard the possibility of "organic" growth. People here are mostly discussing things like "we are definitely going to have another pumping" or some variant thereof. But what about real use? Did you forget that Bitcoin was not born to be a speculative vehicle (only). In other words, why are you waiting for a pump being triggered by some "attractive news and events" and don't wait for adoption to kick in? |
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You think people are seriously waiting with bated breath for Bakkt? You think Sachs employees, nasdaq etc haven't already tiptoed into Bitcoin? They probably started years ago. Private equity began Bitcoin investments as early as 2014, and by 2016 every PE worth its weight was scrambling into crypto. They're probably all in tears now along with crypto funds, unless they capitalised at ATH (of course they didn't) If they are in tears, then they should be If they suffered severe loses, these people should be waiting for Bakkt as it might be their only chance to break even in the nearest future. That likely explains the attitude and words of the commissioner from the SEC. He might have bought a couple of bitcoins near or at the top and now he is deep in the red territory. If Bitcoin continues to magnate, we are going to see more voicing their stance and probable participation |
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so there's no reason to lump the bitfinex hack in there. if tether printing (as in, non-backed USD liabilities) really affected the market, it would have had to be several orders of magnitude bigger. of note: when the market topped in december 2017, the tether market cap was ~$1.1 billion. the tether market cap continued rising until october 2018 when it peaked around $2.8 billion. so the market crashed in spite of the continued tether printing
I don't think it should have been much bigger After all, the market had already been rising, so they were not going against it (which would be downright stupid) but rather added a little more fuel to the furnace. How much a little more remains to be seen. In this way, there are two questions to be asked and answered. First, was Bitfinex printing non-backed tethers since if they did, that pretty much means the market growth was fake (at least, to a certain degree)? And, second, if they hadn't, where's the money then which fueled all this party? |
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a few days ago the price of bitcoin at the exchange has begun to increase prices despite experiencing a very small price increase but it has an important meaning and that can be said as the first signal that there will be a price increase that will occur throughout 2019.
It is even better if the price continue to remain stable. Its shows the interest of the investors that still they have good expectation from bitcoin price that it will very soon start increasing. I also have good expectation from bitcoin that this year will no doubt be more good for bitcoin and other crypto currencies Remain stable and start growth are different things At least, this is how I see it. Stable prices are not so good for investors as for people going to use bitcoins in real life, whatever those applications might be. Volatility adds a lot of overhead to such uses as people either have to use sophisticated techniques like hedging or stop using cryptocurrencies altogether (in favor of fiat). On the other hand, expanding real life use may in fact attract so-called value investors (provided they see some potential in this use to expand further) |
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Today this is no longer the case
Would you agree that Bitcoin is in a phase the same as in 2015, which truly hit its bottom? That would be possible too It is possible and I really hope it is so (as I'm net long on crypto myself) But the market today doesn't look like it was in 2015. In fact, it is fundamentally different. Back then there was a lot of demand as well as supply which was a clear sign that the market was well alive (or well and alive). Today it looks like it is about to die. Technically, it is possible that speculation diminished greatly while real adoption expanded dramatically, so no bitcoin is hurt in trading but instead used for something real. But I don't think this is the case now |
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