POLL: Did we hit the bottom?

[arpon11]

It seems to me that bitcoin hit the bottom in December and it is now in a recovering face of the trading circle.  Those that are waiting for bitcoin to fall below $3000 maybe kick out of the next bull run.  If bitcoin fall below $3000 it means dead to me and bitcoin too good to be abandoned.  For those that really want to makes money now should be the good to invest in bitcoin and others cryptocurrencies market. 2019 just looked like 2016 to me and those that buy in 2016 are the really people that make good profits in 2017.

[enhu]

Is still unsure where it can go from now. There will be more selling just when it touch $3800. If the price weren't stable yet. Maybe it can drop back again to $3200 abd stay for a long time before moving up. It can even dip to $2500 as what I have read in some reddit pages.

[AmoreJaz]

in this kind of market that the price are playing around 3400$ for a long period of time, I guess this is already the bottom of the bearish market but we dont know when we will experience again the bull market.

we cant exactly tell when will we gonna hit the bottom.
the game is not over yet. though we are in the green market for the past few hours, its not enough to conclude that we are out of the dip

true, but the recent surge proved once again that asking this types of questions to get the feeling of what investors are thinking is always going to give you false information. investors in bitcoin market are always either greedy or panicking and they change their direction in a blinking of an eye if they see the market moving in a different direction.
in this surge we saw a very small example of how the FOMO buy is going to look like so it doesn't matter if they think we haven't hit the bottom, as soon as the rise begins they do a FOMO and price can shoot up to $10k!!!

tbh theres no benefit of asking this question to the community. everyone knows that there's no concrete answer to this.
everything is just speculation. and it will not make difference in any way. maybe just to get how the community feels towards this idea.

[Herbert2020]

in this surge we saw a very small example of how the FOMO buy is going to look like so it doesn't matter if they think we haven't hit the bottom, as soon as the rise begins they do a FOMO and price can shoot up to $10k!!!

That's not necessarily so

And while it certainly sounds plausible, if we take a closer look at bigger timeframes, it doesn't always work like that (it may not even look like that in the recent surge). For example, if people have been suffering heavy losses for long months (say, since January 2018), they may be inclined to sell at these surges and call it a day for good, not buy more. Maybe, this is the next step in the development of a typical long-term bagholder who is so tired of waiting that he doesn't care anymore and wants to drop his bags at the next stop, so to speak

that is definitely what is going to happen when the rise starts. that is why the initial rises are always slower and with a lot of tracebacks. because there are a lot of people who are still in the previous trend's mentality and think it is still bear market and they have to sell.

BUT that is not what i am talking about. i am talking about the total market, as in the sum of forces, some sell, some buy. during the FOMO times when people see the rise, there will be more buying than those who sell hence the overall sharp rise.
what we had recently was just a small taste of what we are going to have in the future.

[mirakal]

Is still unsure where it can go from now. There will be more selling just when it touch $3800. If the price weren't stable yet. Maybe it can drop back again to $3200 abd stay for a long time before moving up. It can even dip to $2500 as what I have read in some reddit pages.

Time to be bias, disregard any prediction that says bitcoin is going to hit below $3,000 and $2,500 is already a very cheap price
I can't stand watching it. I think things will change from now on since people started to think that ETF can be approve soon, that drives the market up IMO.

[deisik]

BUT that is not what i am talking about. i am talking about the total market, as in the sum of forces, some sell, some buy. during the FOMO times when people see the rise, there will be more buying than those who sell hence the overall sharp rise

Well, I don't think this is an honest approach

That is, you first stipulate here comes FOMO and then proceed to state that you are talking about the sum of market forces. Indeed, in this particular case (when FOMO has already got the market going), it will be like you describe. But if we consider the situation (like this one) when there is no actual FOMO (yet), we can expect things to develop according to my scenario

Other than that, I agree that a legitimate bull run starts slow. But that's because prices have been either falling or stagnating for some time before that. Thus, plenty of resistance walls have been erected which should be crushed first before the price can start rising in earnest

[South Park]

Just like the title says: Did we hit the bottom yet? Or will the downtrend continue?

snip

I'm trying to get a feel for whether people are bullish or bearish. The poll will run for 10 days and people can change their vote.

The price can always go lower than its current level, but we need to ask how many weak hands remaing in the market? Even if there are some poeple that will sell their coins because of specific needs I do not see a huge number of people still holding their coins ready to sell them, those people are already out of the market so most of those that remain will not sell just because the price moves down a little bit, so to me chances of seeing a price that goes much lower than the current levels are not very high.

[deisik]

Just like the title says: Did we hit the bottom yet? Or will the downtrend continue?

snip

I'm trying to get a feel for whether people are bullish or bearish. The poll will run for 10 days and people can change their vote.

The price can always go lower than its current level, but we need to ask how many weak hands remaing in the market? Even if there are some poeple that will sell their coins because of specific needs I do not see a huge number of people still holding their coins ready to sell them, those people are already out of the market so most of those that remain will not sell just because the price moves down a little bit, so to me chances of seeing a price that goes much lower than the current levels are not very high

I don't think either there are many weak hands left in the market

Which we can clearly see in stagnating prices and low trading volumes (read, there is as little supply as demand). But we still should not dismiss lightly the possibility of just one big whale selling out like it happened in the first half of 2018 (in January and February if I'm not mistaken) with Mt. Gox coins which were sold right into the market and crashed the prices massively. This is still possible, i.e. big chunks of coins being thrown into the market and bringing prices down at the end of the day

[Wind_FURY]

Just like the title says: Did we hit the bottom yet? Or will the downtrend continue?

snip

I'm trying to get a feel for whether people are bullish or bearish. The poll will run for 10 days and people can change their vote.

The price can always go lower than its current level, but we need to ask how many weak hands remaing in the market? Even if there are some poeple that will sell their coins because of specific needs I do not see a huge number of people still holding their coins ready to sell them, those people are already out of the market so most of those that remain will not sell just because the price moves down a little bit, so to me chances of seeing a price that goes much lower than the current levels are not very high

I don't think either there are many weak hands left in the market

Or they have learned the thing called the HODL.

Which we can clearly see in stagnating prices and low trading volumes (read, there is as little supply as demand). But we still should not dismiss lightly the possibility of just one big whale selling out like it happened in the first half of 2018 (in January and February if I'm not mistaken) with Mt. Gox coins which were sold right into the market and crashed the prices massively. This is still possible, i.e. big chunks of coins being thrown into the market and bringing prices down at the end of the day

It's possible. But I believe there would be less panic now than the first half of 2018. Any dip in this level would be a welcome sight for the bottom-feeding whales.

[deisik]

Which we can clearly see in stagnating prices and low trading volumes (read, there is as little supply as demand). But we still should not dismiss lightly the possibility of just one big whale selling out like it happened in the first half of 2018 (in January and February if I'm not mistaken) with Mt. Gox coins which were sold right into the market and crashed the prices massively. This is still possible, i.e. big chunks of coins being thrown into the market and bringing prices down at the end of the day

It's possible. But I believe there would be less panic now than the first half of 2018. Any dip in this level would be a welcome sight for the bottom-feeding whales

This is what happened in the past

Say, in early 2017 when there were two massive but rather short-lived corrections which turned out to be good entry points with fortunes made soon thereafter. But we are not taking into account that back in the day there was enough demand to drive prices up no matter what. Today this is no longer the case

So if we crash lower in the coming weeks or months (for example, to 2k), the rebound may be small and pathetic just like it was when the price had crashed from 6k to 3k. Technically, it was a postponed dead cat's bounce, and nothing in particular has changed since the last crash

[Wind_FURY]

Which we can clearly see in stagnating prices and low trading volumes (read, there is as little supply as demand). But we still should not dismiss lightly the possibility of just one big whale selling out like it happened in the first half of 2018 (in January and February if I'm not mistaken) with Mt. Gox coins which were sold right into the market and crashed the prices massively. This is still possible, i.e. big chunks of coins being thrown into the market and bringing prices down at the end of the day

It's possible. But I believe there would be less panic now than the first half of 2018. Any dip in this level would be a welcome sight for the bottom-feeding whales

This is what happened in the past

Say, in early 2017 when there were two massive but rather short-lived corrections which turned out to be good entry points with fortunes made soon thereafter. But we are not taking into account that back in the day there was enough demand to drive prices up no matter what.

Because Bitcoin was entering into a fully irrational bull mania, yes.

Today this is no longer the case

Would you agree that Bitcoin is in a phase the same as in 2015, which truly hit its bottom? That would be possible too.

So if we crash lower in the coming weeks or months (for example, to 2k), the rebound may be small and pathetic just like it was when the price had crashed from 6k to 3k. Technically, it was a postponed dead cat's bounce, and nothing in particular has changed since the last crash

But I believe the panic wouldn't be that great too. Which should be more important for holders, and bottom-feeders.

[deisik]

Today this is no longer the case

Would you agree that Bitcoin is in a phase the same as in 2015, which truly hit its bottom? That would be possible too

It is possible and I really hope it is so (as I'm net long on crypto myself)

But the market today doesn't look like it was in 2015. In fact, it is fundamentally different. Back then there was a lot of demand as well as supply which was a clear sign that the market was well alive (or well and alive). Today it looks like it is about to die. Technically, it is possible that speculation diminished greatly while real adoption expanded dramatically, so no bitcoin is hurt in trading but instead used for something real. But I don't think this is the case now

[StarofBTC]

I believe the low of ~$3280 might remain the low for the year 2018 and 2019 and low for 2020 may be around $8k levels.

Yes, we are going to have up trend slowly ans the recent bull run up to $3600 levels is the proof for market may not break the low any more.

By any chance (like any sudden bad news similar to exchange hacks etc), we may break the $3000 levels too but definitely the day candle will not close with less than $3000 levels. So, we are into rising markets literally and sustaining above $4k levels may confirm this.

[daarul50]

Hope surely wants that the current market situation is basic. But, in the crypto market, all we cannot predict and the market may decline again because until now many have said that the downtrend will continue. Besides that, seen from the graph of the crypto price movement especially bitcoin, the price movement cannot penetrate the bull run point wall.

[Tzupy]

The market is very close to crossing daily MACD into positive, this is usually a good reason for a pump.
My advice, don't buy the top of the (possible) pump, it could be a bull trap.

[exstasie]

The market is very close to crossing daily MACD into positive, this is usually a good reason for a pump.
My advice, don't buy the top of the (possible) pump, it could be a bull trap.

It'll be a bull trap. I'll definitely be selling into signs of weakness. Even if the bottom is officially in, we have loads of resistance to work through that'll provide ample pullback for reentry. Anything in the upper $4,000s to lower $5,000s would be a good time to sell.

[deisik]

The market is very close to crossing daily MACD into positive, this is usually a good reason for a pump.
My advice, don't buy the top of the (possible) pump, it could be a bull trap.

It'll be a bull trap. I'll definitely be selling into signs of weakness. Even if the bottom is officially in, we have loads of resistance to work through that'll provide ample pullback for reentry. Anything in the upper $4,000s to lower $5,000s would be a good time to sell

You are still fighting the last war

When you should arm yourself for the new one. And the new one will be fought in the land of altcoins with Bitcoin being stuck in the 3k-4k range for likely a very long time (as the ceiling is slowly going down). Technically, that's not a bad thing on its own as we will see more speculative money being poured into altcoins (and Litecoin seems to be the first to suck in that money). This time, Bitcoin may actually turn into a store of value (even though I can't fully accept this thought myself yet)

[exstasie]

The market is very close to crossing daily MACD into positive, this is usually a good reason for a pump.
My advice, don't buy the top of the (possible) pump, it could be a bull trap.

It'll be a bull trap. I'll definitely be selling into signs of weakness. Even if the bottom is officially in, we have loads of resistance to work through that'll provide ample pullback for reentry. Anything in the upper $4,000s to lower $5,000s would be a good time to sell

You are still fighting the last war

When you should arm yourself for the new one. And the new one will be fought in the land of altcoins with Bitcoin being stuck in the 3k-4k range for likely a very long time (as the ceiling is slowly going down). Technically, that's not a bad thing on its own as we will see more speculative money being poured into altcoins (and Litecoin seems to be the first to suck in that money). This time, Bitcoin may actually turn into a store of value (even though I can't fully accept this thought myself yet)

The more confident you get that Bitcoin will stay stuck in a tight range, the more confident I get that you're wrong.

I've been trading this market for 6 years. Never once has Bitcoin stayed stuck in a 25% range for very long. There's no historical evidence for that, so betting on it seems pretty dumb.

[deisik]

The market is very close to crossing daily MACD into positive, this is usually a good reason for a pump.
My advice, don't buy the top of the (possible) pump, it could be a bull trap.

It'll be a bull trap. I'll definitely be selling into signs of weakness. Even if the bottom is officially in, we have loads of resistance to work through that'll provide ample pullback for reentry. Anything in the upper $4,000s to lower $5,000s would be a good time to sell

You are still fighting the last war

When you should arm yourself for the new one. And the new one will be fought in the land of altcoins with Bitcoin being stuck in the 3k-4k range for likely a very long time (as the ceiling is slowly going down). Technically, that's not a bad thing on its own as we will see more speculative money being poured into altcoins (and Litecoin seems to be the first to suck in that money). This time, Bitcoin may actually turn into a store of value (even though I can't fully accept this thought myself yet)

The more confident you get that Bitcoin will stay stuck in a tight range, the more confident I get that you're wrong.

I've been trading this market for 6 years. Never once has Bitcoin stayed stuck in a 25% range for very long. There's no historical evidence for that, so betting on it seems pretty dumb

Actually, I've been telling the same thing for approximately that amount of time. Moreover, I never forget to specifically point out that the longer Bitcoin stays in a certain (tight) range, the stronger will the next breakout be. It is so even purely statistically, as with every passing day we come closer to an abrupt price change simply because such changes are a given (though intuitively many people are in fact inclined to think otherwise)

That's why I can't easily accept this thought myself, i.e. Bitcoin becoming a genuine store of value (in a big way)

[talkbitcoin]

That's why I can't easily accept this thought myself, i.e. Bitcoin becoming a genuine store of value (in a big way)

that simply is never going to happen. that is just absurd.

the "store of value" campaign started a year ago when fees were extremely high and people wanted to deny the fact that bitcoin stopped being a currency because of the high fees and that is the only thing bitcoin is designed for.
so people are only going to ever buy bitcoin either as an investment to make profit or as a currency to enjoy the decentralization. nothing else matters.