That's what you get if you calculate by opinion instead of figures. Why then aren't people keeping their GPU or FPGA rigs active if your ideas and Badonkadonk are correct? (that somehow a Jally or Little Single will be profitable even if there is a late delivery and ever increasing difficulty) So by your opinion any asic is no longer giving a roi after the block halving. Have you cancelled your (bctfpga) order yet? Oh no wait, you were just trolling, right?
If you can't answer the above, then it's not trolling. It's just obvious. P.S. The people who will be making tons of BTC are the mini-rig crowd (or people buying multiple units to approach a mini-rig like system.) I think you're missing the point. It's a "math" thing. Then I guess the BFL representative doesn't know his match as much as I do. Regarding your comment about GPU's, they have a high fixed electricity overhead which cannot be overcome when the difficulty skyrockets due to ASIC's.
Same story with ASICs. (Get some perspective folks!) "High electricity costs" is always relative to the situation of increasing complexity/difficulty a device has to handle. An ASIC power requirement is as fixed as a GPU. It is simply more efficient (for now) when contrasted against the current (11-21-2012) difficulty level. GPU's were a goldmine until the difficulty went up. With ASICs the difficulty will simply go up a bit more sharply. The first to become unprofitable will be Jally's then Little Singles and finally Singles. Mini-rigs will outlast the others by a long shot. Edit: By the way, you can't blame the GPU's demise on devices which don't currently exist and aren't adding to increasing difficulty yet. (ASICs) GPU's are halfway out of the mining game because the difficulty continues to rise and the profits just keep decreasing. You could probably make the case the FPGA's are making the situation worse, but I don't think there are that many FPGA's out there. |
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That's what you get if you calculate by opinion instead of figures. Why then aren't people keeping their GPU or FPGA rigs active if your ideas and Badonkadonk are correct? (that somehow a Jally or Little Single will be profitable even if there is a late delivery and ever increasing difficulty) So by your opinion any asic is no longer giving a roi after the block halving. Have you cancelled your (bctfpga) order yet? Oh no wait, you were just trolling, right?
If you can't answer the above, then it's not trolling. It's just obvious. P.S. The people who will be making tons of BTC are the mini-rig crowd (or people buying multiple units to approach a mini-rig like system.) |
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[Speculation and comments based on opinion]
With the stated schedule closing in, I think the first wave of refunds is about to start.
People are starting to turn into "concerned customers" on the company forum. (err I mean "trolls" in company speak)
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The smaller purchasers haven't seemingly figured out that the Jally and Little Singles are pretty unprofitable the longer they wait to receive them. (after block halving that is). It seems like an inescapable reality that customers will eventually do the math and figure it out.
What BFL will do about it to turn lemons into lemonade is gonna be pretty interesting.
I think the PCB's costs more than the ASIC chips themselves. Probably why they encouraged people turning their Jally's into Little Singles.
so by your definition, less speed = slower ROI? considering that the 30ghs rig is 50% cheaper then the 60ghs rig, i fail to see how you can get too that conclusion... how profitable anything is going to be is pure speculation, who knows, with the halving coming the price might double, it could plummit, gpu farms might shut down, etcetcetc... like i said, speculation@ Badonkadonk You heard one of BFL representatives stating repeatedly in the last month that they had done the math and the profitability is stretched out over many days. They were referring to a Single SC and a ROI over a significant period of time. (Hence, the pitch that It was a selling point on their "energy efficiency".) If you cut the performance in half for a Little Single do you expect it to get better? What about even further than that for a Jally? As difficulty rises, the performance has to rise otherwise a Jally or Little Single produces significantly less as the time frame increases. -------------------------------- Sure it is speculation. But I don't estimate difficulty to go down as time increases. Should I expect it [difficulty] will somehow decrease as time increases? (Let me know) Perhaps Armageddon or another Super Sized Sandy will hit various regions of the world and people won't be mining to bring up the difficulty. Perhaps a crazy thing like that might keep the difficulty down. |
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Did it meet the power and efficiency ratio of 1Gh per watt?
-- Smoov
There is speculation that the picture is only a non-working dud as of yet. Hopefully they will have working prototypes soon. One representative stated that they won't have any samples in the incoming batch. So if it is broke, then the fat lady has sung. They said that was unlikely though. I believe them on that. Question is, how many times did they try and when did each iteration occur in their timeline/schedule? That info alone would change the actual reasons for the past delays. [or at least solidify that there was never a possibility for shipping earlier until just now.] |
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[Speculation and comments based on opinion]
With the stated schedule closing in, I think the first wave of refunds is about to start.
People are starting to turn into "concerned customers" on the company forum. (err I mean "trolls" in company speak)
------------------
The smaller purchasers haven't seemingly figured out that the Jally and Little Singles are pretty unprofitable the longer they wait to receive them. (after block halving that is). It seems like an inescapable reality that customers will eventually do the math and figure it out.
What BFL will do about it to turn lemons into lemonade is gonna be pretty interesting.
I think the PCB's costs more than the ASIC chips themselves. Probably why they encouraged people turning their Jally's into Little Singles.
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It may have one of the "dummy" boards in it,for whatever reason.
Perhaps for the purposes of confirming the outer housing is actually within manufacturing tolerances? Either way, now it is bASIC turn to upstage or lay like a dead goose in the background. |
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Oh, by the way, the prototype picture has been released.   Courtesy of: www.butterflylabs.comRe-posted under the FAIR USE ACT for discussion purposes.It is unknown (as of yet) if this is simply a prototype for the case design or if it is a fully working prototype. If it is the latter, then obviously the burning questions is: Did it meet the power and efficiency ratio of 1Gh per watt? I'll let others ask.... |
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They've benefited from each and every one of these delays and miscalculations. They're not stupid...they're dishonest. How do you mean? I mean they're the market leader in ASIC pre-orders by a wide margin because they said they'd ship in October. Obviously this didn't happen. After announcing a shipping delay they always have another date prepared that's only a few weeks out. These don't pan out either, but if you stack them all on top of each other and just admit that you won't be shipping till two months after you initially said you'd ship then you get a deluge of cancellations. Again, I simply cannot believe that they're this dumb or out of touch with their own production schedule. The only other alternative to my mind is that they're lying. Or [Speculation] That the COO (Chief Operations Officer) does not honestly  know if there will be a delay of several weeks (months) until just 3 days before announcing it publicly... and of course, after having a meeting with the rest of the staff. It's like a NASA meeting, they check with each department head first at a meeting to make sure they will be late before they then announce it. The shipping department looks at the COO and CEO and...stands up, pulls their pockets inside out, then in a grim monotone voice says the "no-go" signal and then the COO and CEO just suddenly realize they have to scrub the mission and postpone it for a few months.    I am joking though... |
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Even this nugget from BFL_Josh "If there is work to be done on T-Day, we will be doing it. No turkey shall stand in the way of ASIC progress, this I promise you."
That is no longer true. Jody has just mentioned the staff will stop working for two days surrounding T-Day. Check out the Blogs..... Oh, and the 1/3 plan is history in her latest blog post. Now it doesn't matter when you placed your order....but when you paid it. Is there any facts to go on in this discussion besides they seem to be making an asic product and have peoples money? One BFL representative has further stated that the pre-orders should finish shipping by the end of January [clause: if there are no "snags"]. But no start date is given. (It is assumed it will be the planned "5th week of November") Further, an update from Jody stated that they are still "waiting" on parts. https://forums.butterflylabs.com/entry.php/48-Batches-Really-We-Don-t-Have-Them |
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Even this nugget from BFL_Josh "If there is work to be done on T-Day, we will be doing it. No turkey shall stand in the way of ASIC progress, this I promise you."
That is no longer true. Jody has just mentioned the staff will stop working for two days surrounding T-Day. Check out the Blogs..... Oh, and the 1/3 plan is history in her latest blog post. Now it doesn't matter when you placed your order....but when you paid it. |
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No pics of the actual devices?
It is currently not in our favor to release this information. What is a [reasonable] timeframe for a render and an actual picture of the Avalon Device? This isn't a matter that is limited by time. Rather we do not wish to reveal our cards so early because we believe we have truly designed a unique ASIC that's very different from BFL and bASIC. After BFL and Tom starts demoing their devices and perhaps even started to ship them, In other words: Once the competition has demonstrated their device is finished and final, then we will release our information. Unless of course they push their release date back even further, then I think it is safe to say everything shall be revealed before this year ends. It sounds like you have a number of undisclosed features, correct? Can you start a thread where we can make feature requests for the second/third generation Avalon device? (or would you prefer private feature requests by email?) |
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@ Bogart
I am not totally sure, but their first mention of the bullet run may have been are far back as October 20ish. Then a [very] vague statement of "refraction" issues with their run. As well as a mention of some kind of error being acceptable and was factored into their release timeline.
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No pics of the actual devices?
It is currently not in our favor to release this information. What is a [reasonable] timeframe for a render and an actual picture of the Avalon Device? |
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PuertoLibre : I've no plan to get out. Then we are both in the same boat with respect to our purchases.... I am hoping someone will come up with a viable "Plan B" regardless of which vendor we purchased from. The first vendor to cater to the "Plan B" crowd will double their size overnight.... <Hint><Hint> Wrost scenario : BFL did not ship anything, close business, and I lose it all.. The probability that this occurs are 0, or something like 0.01% IMO ! creativex : Before ordering, I read a lot about BFL.. So I was aware that delays were possible.. I was almost pretty sure that delays will occurs, so I'm not surprise or disappointed ! And each week of delay gives me around 1/40 chance to win 30Ghs for free by my signature  ) So I sit on my pre-order, get some popcorn and watch the show  By the way, the Avalon team won me over by virtue of the self contained unit. I wonder when they will next revise their power numbers downward. Actually, I wonder when BFL will confirm their actual power numbers. |
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@ DoomDumas
What is "Plan B", if any?
At what point do you start thinking of heading for the exit? I assume you have at least several thousand invested so I want to hear your thoughts on what you feel can go wrong and what would shake you enough to pull out (if anything).
What are the warning signs to look out for in your investment?
Edit: The reason I ask is because so far I have heard people say plenty about refunds...but so far I haven't heard of an actual backup strategy. (except diversification)
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In view of the situation at Hua Wei and past dealings with Chinese hardware,
I think I would really like to see the embedded network and communication code.
The funniest 'Trojan' I saw was a 'very well known' alarm manufacturer that allowed the user to enter their own 4 digit 'user code'
But actually 3 of the digits were ignored when checking............
It's using a Atheros AR7240 / Atheros AR9331 Chipset and it'll run openWRT, you are welcome to look all you want when we release the image.iso in a 2-3 weeks. We have gotten some impressive people working with Avalon you don't really have to worry about that. For example, Fujitsu is doing our chip packaging. Does this mean it is encased in plastic or will the chip be covered with a metal heat spreader? What are the viable ambient operating temperatures for the Avalon ASIC? (32F > 105F?) |
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Avalon has already stated a delivery date of Feb thru March,as has Deepbit too,so no comp there.....yet.
Actually, that was their old target date. It has since been moved up to January 14th, 2013 with a reasonable possibility [unconfirmed] to as early as December. They just recently posted the tech they are using to build their products. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=120184.msg1338015#msg1338015BFL is infamous for lengthening their target dates. bASIC is known for keeping their target dates. Avalon is known for shortening thier target dates. |
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If another than the one I have my money tight to, starts delivering new orders faster than the one my money is tight to, I'll cancel that order, and go for that other one. What a simple plan B, is it not?
Depends. I keep thinking that if bASIC delivers in late November or Early December and BFL does not until late December....does it make sense to go to the end of the line @ bASIC? Sure different people will come up with different ideas as to what is the right answer. I don't see it quite in black and white after thinking on it for a while. The large assumption is that bASIC could get a second batch out fast to make later orders worth while. That is an unknown at this point. So I can't figure out any easy answers as to what one should do if they are tied to the slowest/slower company. It is a bit of a pickle when you really think about it. --------------------------------- Part of me smirks a bit at the idea that BFL does delay into late December/January. It would mean they delayed 2/3 of the ASIC miners from mining. Which is absolutely fantastic if you choose the right vendor to ship first. Though, if you are stuck in the largest vendor what do you do exactly? It all depends on how fast a second batch occurs at the fastest vendor. Frankly, I don't know of any of their turn around times. Could be weeks for the second batch. Or it could be the fastest vendor over purchased just enough to cover a second batch. Even my crystal ball has lots of static when trying to figure out this puzzle of "what ifs"... I don't see any easy or clear answers. People want their rigs, not really their money. So a refund secures their funds, not necessarily their rigs. |
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