Already delays in BFL shipment plans?

[PuertoLibre]

[Speculation and comments based on opinion]
With the stated schedule closing in, I think the first wave of refunds is about to start.

People are starting to turn into "concerned customers" on the company forum. (err I mean "trolls" in company speak)

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The smaller purchasers haven't seemingly figured out that the Jally and Little Singles are pretty unprofitable the longer they wait to receive them. (after block halving that is). It seems like an inescapable reality that customers will eventually do the math and figure it out.

What BFL will do about it to turn lemons into lemonade is gonna be pretty interesting.

I think the PCB's costs more than the ASIC chips themselves. Probably why they encouraged people turning their Jally's into Little Singles.

[1714687833]

1714687833

[Badonkadonk]

[Speculation and comments based on opinion]
With the stated schedule closing in, I think the first wave of refunds is about to start.

People are starting to turn into "concerned customers" on the company forum. (err I mean "trolls" in company speak)

------------------

The smaller purchasers haven't seemingly figured out that the Jally and Little Singles are pretty unprofitable the longer they wait to receive them. (after block halving that is). It seems like an inescapable reality that customers will eventually do the math and figure it out.

What BFL will do about it to turn lemons into lemonade is gonna be pretty interesting.

I think the PCB's costs more than the ASIC chips themselves. Probably why they encouraged people turning their Jally's into Little Singles.

so by your definition, less speed = slower ROI?
considering that the 30ghs rig is 50% cheaper then the 60ghs rig, i fail to see how you can get too that conclusion...

how profitable anything is going to be is pure speculation, who knows, with the halving coming the price might double, it could plummit, gpu farms might shut down, etcetcetc...

like i said, speculation

[SLok]

That's what you get if you calculate by opinion instead of figures. So by your opinion any asic is no longer giving a roi after the block halving. Have you cancelled your (bctfpga) order yet? Oh no wait, you were just trolling, right?

[PuertoLibre]

[Speculation and comments based on opinion]
With the stated schedule closing in, I think the first wave of refunds is about to start.

People are starting to turn into "concerned customers" on the company forum. (err I mean "trolls" in company speak)

------------------

The smaller purchasers haven't seemingly figured out that the Jally and Little Singles are pretty unprofitable the longer they wait to receive them. (after block halving that is). It seems like an inescapable reality that customers will eventually do the math and figure it out.

What BFL will do about it to turn lemons into lemonade is gonna be pretty interesting.

I think the PCB's costs more than the ASIC chips themselves. Probably why they encouraged people turning their Jally's into Little Singles.

so by your definition, less speed = slower ROI?
considering that the 30ghs rig is 50% cheaper then the 60ghs rig, i fail to see how you can get too that conclusion...

how profitable anything is going to be is pure speculation, who knows, with the halving coming the price might double, it could plummit, gpu farms might shut down, etcetcetc...

like i said, speculation

@
Badonkadonk

You heard one of BFL representatives stating repeatedly in the last month that they had done the math and the profitability is stretched out over many days. They were referring to a Single SC and a ROI over a significant period of time. (Hence, the pitch that It was a selling point on their "energy efficiency".)

If you cut the performance in half for a Little Single do you expect it to get better? What about even further than that for a Jally?

As difficulty rises, the performance has to rise otherwise a Jally or Little Single produces significantly less as the time frame increases.

--------------------------------

Sure it is speculation. But I don't estimate difficulty to go down as time increases. Should I expect it [difficulty] will somehow decrease as time increases? (Let me know)

Perhaps Armageddon or another Super Sized  Sandy will hit various regions of the world and people won't be mining to bring up the difficulty. Perhaps a crazy thing like that might keep the difficulty down.

[PuertoLibre]

That's what you get if you calculate by opinion instead of figures.

Why then aren't people keeping their GPU or FPGA rigs active if your ideas and Badonkadonk are correct? (that somehow a Jally or Little Single will be profitable even if there is a late delivery and ever increasing difficulty)

So by your opinion any asic is no longer giving a roi after the block halving. Have you cancelled your (bctfpga) order yet? Oh no wait, you were just trolling, right?

If you can't answer the above, then it's not trolling. It's just obvious.

P.S. The people who will be making tons of BTC are the mini-rig crowd (or people buying multiple units to approach a mini-rig like system.)

[Meatball]

@
Badonkadonk

You heard one of BFL representatives stating repeatedly in the last month that they had done the math and the profitability is stretched out over many days. They were referring to a Single SC and a ROI over a significant period of time. (Hence, the pitch that It was a selling point on their "energy efficiency".)

If you cut the performance in half for a Little Single do you expect it to get better? What about even further than that for a Jally?

As difficulty rises, the performance has to rise otherwise a Jally or Little Single produces significantly less as the time frame increases.

--------------------------------

Sure it is speculation. But I don't estimate difficulty to go down as time increases. Should I expect it [difficulty] will somehow decrease as time increases? (Let me know)

Perhaps Armageddon or another Super Sized  Sandy will hit various regions of the world and people won't be mining to bring up the difficulty. Perhaps a crazy thing like that might keep the difficulty down.

If the Little Single costs half as much as the Single and uses half the amount of power, the RoI on either unit will be exactly the same. 

IMO it's all about power efficiency.  Unless you get in on that first 2 week window of ASIC's making a ton of BTC, it's going to be who can be the most efficient over the long term.  People don't think the difference between 1 Watt/GH and 2 Watt/GH is a lot, but double the cost for power is double the cost.  Imagine if someone came out with a video card that did 1 GH for 500 Watts, then someone did a 1 GH, but for 1000 watts, what's going to pay itself off faster?

[bitcoindaddy]

That's what you get if you calculate by opinion instead of figures.

Why then aren't people keeping their GPU or FPGA rigs active if your ideas and Badonkadonk are correct? (that somehow a Jally or Little Single will be profitable even if there is a late delivery and ever increasing difficulty)

So by your opinion any asic is no longer giving a roi after the block halving. Have you cancelled your (bctfpga) order yet? Oh no wait, you were just trolling, right?

If you can't answer the above, then it's not trolling. It's just obvious.

P.S. The people who will be making tons of BTC are the mini-rig crowd (or people buying multiple units to approach a mini-rig like system.)

I think you're missing the point. It's a "math" thing.

Regarding your comment about GPU's, they have a high fixed electricity overhead which cannot be overcome when the difficulty skyrockets due to ASIC's.

[PuertoLibre]

That's what you get if you calculate by opinion instead of figures.

Why then aren't people keeping their GPU or FPGA rigs active if your ideas and Badonkadonk are correct? (that somehow a Jally or Little Single will be profitable even if there is a late delivery and ever increasing difficulty)

So by your opinion any asic is no longer giving a roi after the block halving. Have you cancelled your (bctfpga) order yet? Oh no wait, you were just trolling, right?

If you can't answer the above, then it's not trolling. It's just obvious.

P.S. The people who will be making tons of BTC are the mini-rig crowd (or people buying multiple units to approach a mini-rig like system.)

I think you're missing the point. It's a "math" thing.

Then I guess the BFL representative doesn't know his match as much as I do.

Regarding your comment about GPU's, they have a high fixed electricity overhead which cannot be overcome when the difficulty skyrockets due to ASIC's.

Same story with ASICs. (Get some perspective folks!)

"High electricity costs" is always relative to the situation of increasing complexity/difficulty a device has to handle. An ASIC power requirement is as fixed as a GPU. It is simply more efficient (for now) when contrasted against the current (11-21-2012) difficulty level.

GPU's were a goldmine until the difficulty went up. With ASICs the difficulty will simply go up a bit more sharply. The first to become unprofitable will be Jally's then Little Singles and finally Singles. Mini-rigs will outlast the others by a long shot.

Edit: By the way, you can't blame the  GPU's demise on devices which don't currently exist and aren't adding to increasing difficulty yet. (ASICs)

GPU's are halfway out of the mining game because the difficulty continues to rise and the profits just keep decreasing. You could probably make the case the FPGA's are making the situation worse, but I don't think there are that many FPGA's out there.

[Morblias]

The smaller purchasers haven't seemingly figured out that the Jally and Little Singles are pretty unprofitable the longer they wait to receive them. (after block halving that is). It seems like an inescapable reality that customers will eventually do the math and figure it out.

Then I guess the BFL representative doesn't know his match as much as I do.

lol math. Why am I doing this.

Jalapeno: $150 4.5GH/s
Little SC: $650 30GH/s
Single SC: $1,300 60GH/s
MiniRig SC: $30,000 1,500GH/s

Lets throw in some hypothetical numbers. Difficulty goes up by 40x, price stays the same. Block reward halves to 25.

Difficulty: 134750685
Price: $11.75

Jalapeno: 4.5 watts, .11USD/kWh, 4.5GH/s
Revenue per day: 0.20 USD
      ... less power costs: 0.19 USD

Little SC: 30 watts, .11USD/kWh, 30GH/s
Revenue per day: 1.32 USD
      ... less power costs: 1.24 USD

Single SC: 60 watts, .11USD/kWh, 60GH/s
Revenue per day: 2.63 USD
      ... less power costs: 2.47 USD

MiniRig SC: 1500 watts, .11USD/kWh, 1,500GH/s
Revenue per day: 65.78 USD
      ... less power costs: 61.82 USD

ROI: Total cost/Revenue per day (less power cost)
Jalapeno ROI: 150/.19 = 789.47 days
Little SC ROI: 650/1.24 = 524.19 days
Single SC ROI: 1300/2.47 = 526.32 days
MiniRig SC ROI: 30000/61.82 = 485.28 days

The site I am using is cutting off a few digits so the numbers are not 100% exact, but yeah Little SC and Single SC ROI are the same.

[thebaron]

So, looks like February at the earliest. That's gonna suck for anyone who thought they were going to be first to get an ASIC to get a decent ROI.

[AndrewBUD]

This is not surprising at all... My guess is that shipping starts sometime in April or May. 

[creativex]

Still possible that a second batch bASIC customer could potentially receive a product before a 1st batch(oops there are no batches) BFL customer. That's gonna be a bitter pill to swallow for some if it comes to pass.

[AndrewBUD]

It's sorta exciting

[smoothie]

"BFL ASICs Estimated Delivery Date:

October
November
December
January"

ROFL!  

Sounds like PussyAt30 and Nefario.

[michaelmclees]

If by exciting, you mean nerve racking.

[CoinHoarder]

If by exciting, you mean nerve racking.

Lol, seriously. Why do ASICs even have to exist? Grrrr

[smoothie]

If by exciting, you mean nerve racking.

Lol, seriously. Why do ASICs even have to exist? Grrrr

ASICs @ 1.5 TH/s = 7%/week 

[Mushroomized]

So, looks like February at the earliest. That's gonna suck for anyone who thought they were going to be first to get an ASIC to get a decent ROI.

_{come on...}

I bought mine with the intent to mine, and hoard coins. But. I mean, come on... This is getting into half life 3 scale.

[SgtSpike]

There's really only been two delays so far.

First delay brought it from late October to early November.  Second delay brought it from early November to late November/early December.

Hopefully there's not a 3rd...

[AndrewBUD]

I thought they're saying End of January now?