So you post the image of the hashrate as if it supports your opinion. However, even taking the most conservative number on that chart, 486 TH/s, a BFL single would still earn between .4 and .5 BTC a day. That's $70 a day, or $2100 per month. A 1 month 100% ROI at 486 TH network hashrate. If the network hashrate is anything LESS than 486 TH, your 100% ROI timeframe drops dramatically.
Yes... once again, only in the bitcoin world is a 1 month 100% ROI cause for panic and bitching, heh.
Unless the price of BTC in late July / early August (the date of the 486TH hash rate) is $14. Then it would take considerably longer than 1 month to earn your money back. And the hash rate does not stop growing at 484TH (as your analysis presumed). You are looking at more like 18 months to earn your money back. Plus, Singles do not yet exist except in the plans of BFL. Of course, if BTC goes to $5000 the story will be different.  It's amazing for me how he plays games with dubious statements, like implying that the order we are discussing here will be delivered in July (hash rate 486TH). The drama here is that no one knows when our mining gear will arrive, and based on past history that could be in 1 year from now. If the difficulty keeps growing as per the calculation displayed above... Yeah, difficulty does x10 each three months, you can imagine where will it be in one year. |
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I understand it just fine, you don't seem to understand basic math. Show your work or you're just making crap up.
There's plenty of projections that show a positive ROI even at 100x difficulty and beyond. I have yet to see a single credible projection that doesn't show a positive ROI at some point within 2 - 3 years with all the worst case scenarios coming into play at the same time .
I trust Organofcorti's calculations far more than I trust your speculation.
Based on past history an April order will be likely delivered in 2014, when difficulty will be very high. Sorry, I'm basing this assumption on facts: continuous delays, huge backlog, etc. Organofcorti's calculations arrive only to July this year, and still you can see below how he forecasted a x10 increase in just three months. If that trends continues.... Well, good luck with having a ROI at 1,000x. Another fact is that you are not guaranteeing any delivery date. That's a huge risk in mining business, because as you acknowledged if you don't get your mining unit early enough so you can recoup your costs in the very first weeks, you won't ROI at all. And BTW, if you trust organofcorti's calculations you should know he wrote literally: Notice that the BFL Single SC at $2500 / 50 Ghps (currently 19.2 btc / 50 Ghps, or 0.38 btc / Ghps) is quite profitable, right up to the end of May. It would need about twenty days mining to pay for itself, and once the 0.38btc / Ghps threshold is reached will return 200% of the purchase cost within the next seventy days. Based on this estimate, if I could be guaranteed delivery by the end of May I'd purchase a BFL Single SC. Source: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.es/2013/04/915-fair-price-for-asic-miner.htmlBut, the point is you cannot guarantee delivery by the end of May - true? Maybe to him, to try to get some nice publicity, but not for the rest of us. I am a BFL customer too, so I'm not enjoying this situation.  So you post the image of the hashrate as if it supports your opinion. However, even taking the most conservative number on that chart, 486 TH/s, a BFL single would still earn between .4 and .5 BTC a day. That's $70 a day, or $2100 per month. A 1 month 100% ROI at 486 TH network hashrate. If the network hashrate is anything LESS than 486 TH, your 100% ROI timeframe drops dramatically. Yes... once again, only in the bitcoin world is a 1 month 100% ROI cause for panic and bitching, heh. So you are guaranteeing here that an April order like the one we are discussing in this post will be delivered in July?You represent a company, I'd appreciate some clear and honest statements instead of trolling. |
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Well, there are different indicators that point on opposite directions.
From one side, a long term bear market is a reasonable outcome of this correction: price declines so new money interested in riding the bubble stops flowing in, holders start to get nervous and want to secure some profits, price declines even more and there you have the downwards spiral...
But, this time the feeling is much different compared to 2011. News are still positive (in 2011 we had only FUD in all media), a lot of people is working to support BTC economy, infrastructure its on the way to improvement... And I would like to remark that news are still positive because more people is really understanding what is Bitcoin and how it works. This is really important. Yes, it's true that most of people is only interested in the get-rich-quick scheme, and that's why rise in price is directly proportional to new money flowing in. BUT, we still have a lot of both influential and normal people embracing Bitcoin.
Sure, we can expect a decline in the price discovery phase, but still Bitcoin feels stronger than ever. Short term bear case? Good opportunity to buy more BTC.
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I understand it just fine, you don't seem to understand basic math. Show your work or you're just making crap up.
There's plenty of projections that show a positive ROI even at 100x difficulty and beyond. I have yet to see a single credible projection that doesn't show a positive ROI at some point within 2 - 3 years with all the worst case scenarios coming into play at the same time .
I trust Organofcorti's calculations far more than I trust your speculation.
Based on past history an April order will be likely delivered in 2014, when difficulty will be very high. Sorry, I'm basing this assumption on facts: continuous delays, huge backlog, etc. Organofcorti's calculations arrive only to July this year, and still you can see below how he forecasted a x10 increase in just three months. If that trends continues.... Well, good luck with having a ROI at 1,000x. Another fact is that you are not guaranteeing any delivery date. That's a huge risk in mining business, because as you acknowledged if you don't get your mining unit early enough so you can recoup your costs in the very first weeks, you won't ROI at all. And BTW, if you trust organofcorti's calculations you should know he wrote literally: Notice that the BFL Single SC at $2500 / 50 Ghps (currently 19.2 btc / 50 Ghps, or 0.38 btc / Ghps) is quite profitable, right up to the end of May. It would need about twenty days mining to pay for itself, and once the 0.38btc / Ghps threshold is reached will return 200% of the purchase cost within the next seventy days. Based on this estimate, if I could be guaranteed delivery by the end of May I'd purchase a BFL Single SC. Source: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.es/2013/04/915-fair-price-for-asic-miner.htmlBut, the point is you cannot guarantee delivery by the end of May - true? Maybe to him, to try to get some nice publicity, but not for the rest of us. I am a BFL customer too, so I'm not enjoying this situation. |
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Only in the Bitcoin world do people have a fit when they don't have a 3 month 100% ROI. Meanwhile, everywhere else people are falling over themselves to have a 24 months 100% ROI.
That's because with current difficult projections, what will not ROI in 3 months will not ROI at all. Out of bitcoin world, first moments are the most difficult because revenue is lower, but you expect your revenue and profits to grow over time. In BTC mining it's the opposite. You really don't understand this or you are just trolling? |
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Well, there is people who really made A LOT of money with batch#1 Avalon ASICS. Just think about the chinese guy on these forums that ordered 18 avalons. In February that was 162BTC per day: not bad, eh?
Of course the guys that ordered batch#1 Avalon ASICS took a big gamble. Sends thousand of $ in irreversible and pseudoanonymous internet currency to a BTC address with no guarantee whatsoever and without being allowed to ask for any refund and sit tight.
That gamble was a WIN - many others have been a FAIL in the ASIC world (see BFL).
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aTg, por qué no comienzas un hilo nuevo con la opción "self-moderated", para que lo moderes tú? De esa forma podrás borrar los posts que ensucien el hilo, puedes copiar lo que ya has posteado en este, y tenemos todos un hilo limpio sólo para el Avalon DIY - que es un proyecto fascinante y para el que estás haciendo un curro DPM.
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Man, do you want to be spoonfed? Seriously?
There's no such thing as easy money - did you know that?
Mining is a very competitive enviroment - there's no stable income. Difficulty grows and thus you generate less BTC each two weeks - that can be balanced by growth in BTC exchange rate... Or not.
Mining BTC is a gamble in itself - first you gamble on the hardware. With the current situation of ASIC manufacturers, you never know if and when you will receive your equipment. Secondly, you gamble on the network difficulty: you don't know when you will receive your gear (I take for granted you won't be mining BTC with GPUs, that's pretty pointless now) and you don't know how difficulty will grow. Thirdly, you gamble on an exchange rate: if BTC goes to 0, there goes your investment down the toilet.
I'd suggest you do your own research.
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Nobody is going to buy an April order... For now. Maybe next year, when it's very likely that you will get it soon, somebody is going to be willing to pay for your preorder including a premium.... Or maybe not, because ROI will be impossible at that time.
Honestly, don't want to be rude, but I really cannot understand what crossed your mind when you pre-ordered in April. Maybe you are new and did not make any research? Maybe you thought BTC would skyrocket so even 0.0001BTC mined is worth it? No, sorry, last sentence has no sense, if you believed that you would just have bought BTC for the price of the miner.
So... what crossed your mind? Honest question.
what if someone who wants to order now from BFL ... why wouldn't they buy this one for a cheaper price and faster shipment? Yeah, I thought you were offering the pre-order for a premium, I see is not the case, so yours is not a bad offer... But still is an April order, paying $1K for a unit you will get in 2014 is still quite crazy IMO. BTW, honest question: what crossed your mind when you decided to order to BFL on April? You really thought they were going to deliver soon? Because I felt stupid for not ordering Avalon when I had the chance... I literally had my bank info all typed in but decided it was too risky and closed all windows... Something similar happened to me with Avalon batch #2 - but then I prepared and bought batch #3. That's a gamble on its own... And BTW: I also have a pre-order with BFL, but much earlier... And I paid in BTC (ouch!) |
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LOL keep telling yourself that when we are at $150+ by week's end. Oh and by the way...you should sell now and buy back in higher. Thanks   I might not be very useful for price prediction but, reading Smoothie signature, I think I've spotted a strong pattern. The set of those who ordered BFL ASIC miner is remarkably congruent with the set of those who endlessly et brainlessly claim that "BTC price will be 500$ next week". I wonder if this compliance for scam is just a coincidence or the sign of a deeper psychological deficiency... I bought BFL ASICs when BTC was $6, figuring that it may double through the halving, and then with great luck be maybe $20 or $25 by now. I may be slightly upset if I had paid BTC, but at the time there was less risk in mining then holding, IMO. For me, above $100 is pure heaven, if I in fact ever receive my miners . . . Deficiency exists only in those who ridicule others. I bought BFL with BTC, so imagine my feeling. Anyway, is a bet I lost - it's only my fault. Who cares, I only gambled money I could afford to loose, now it's fiat value is x10, but still... It was just a quantity of BTC I was ok with gambling, and as I explained earlier I'm not concerned with the fiat exchange rate - that will crash and raise many times in the long run, and the long run is the only thing important for me. |
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The ask and bid walls are theatrical props. They have little real life meaning. A sucker rally could start any moment, there really are tens of millions of dollars dormant in the exchanges which aren't making up any walls.
That being said, each day that passes the bubble is getting colder and the chance for another one is dropping. People buy because they expect profits. No short term rally, no media attention, no potential profits thus no bubble. Regular people will not use their money to day trade.
I'm not very concerned about the 5-20 million $/day figure Mark dropped. I don't accuse him of dishonesty, just that's his a bit creative with the numbers so it sounds like his company is bigger than it really is. My interpretation: at the peak of the bubble there were 20 million dollars flowing in per day, including bitcoins at bubble valuations. Later the torrent of fiat and bitcoins dropped to 5M/day, including fiat that was in transit during the burst (we know depositing money in the gox can take 2-3 weeks). So what will the fiat figure be when the hype cools down ? Maybe less than 1M/day, inssuficient to cover people cashing out and miners covering their bills and profits ? I would certainly expect that. The bills and profits of miners alone are around 500K/day at current valuation.
Agree on everything - ask and bid walls are theatrical props, but that does not change the fact that when we have dips we have lots of coins being added to the order book, and lots of fiat removed. Obviously that can change in an eye blink. I'd also expect a long term bear market. Anyhow, compared to 2011 we are still having a lot of positive media attention despite of a severe correction, compared to the FUD spread everywhere in 2011. So yes, I expect a slow decline, but with a much higher botton than in 2011, and a fastest recovery. And I won't be surprised if another positive media cycle boosts another sustained rally very soon. There are lots of things happening behind closed doors that will benefit a lot BTC, the only question is when those will be public and how much they will impact the media. First thing that needs to be addressed, is how BTC are bought. Currently is very difficult for a newbie to buy a significant amount of BTC. All the MtGox validation process is a pain in the ass. We are used to it, we are already verified, but for newbies is a lengthy and difficult process. |
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I think it would be benefical if we don't pursue this matter further. It's just pointless noise.
Can anyone please confirm the dimensions of the block erupters?
It's not pointless to try to stop the abuse in these subforums. It's happening a lot lately. |
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Nobody is going to buy an April order... For now. Maybe next year, when it's very likely that you will get it soon, somebody is going to be willing to pay for your preorder including a premium.... Or maybe not, because ROI will be impossible at that time.
Honestly, don't want to be rude, but I really cannot understand what crossed your mind when you pre-ordered in April. Maybe you are new and did not make any research? Maybe you thought BTC would skyrocket so even 0.0001BTC mined is worth it? No, sorry, last sentence has no sense, if you believed that you would just have bought BTC for the price of the miner.
So... what crossed your mind? Honest question.
what if someone who wants to order now from BFL ... why wouldn't they buy this one for a cheaper price and faster shipment? Yeah, I thought you were offering the pre-order for a premium, I see is not the case, so yours is not a bad offer... But still is an April order, paying $1K for a unit you will get in 2014 is still quite crazy IMO. BTW, honest question: what crossed your mind when you decided to order to BFL on April? You really thought they were going to deliver soon? |
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No new money sitting on the order book, on the contrary new coins are being added.*
My money isn't in the order book either but believe me it's all there. The orders themselves represent only a small part of the available money. Obviously - same thing about coins. There are 11.000.000 BTC available, but only 140K are sitting on MtGox order book. Anyhow, that indicator is dynamic and changes quickly - but when we had dips we had a lot of coins being pulled in the order book, and fiat pulled out - which is happening just now as we speak. |
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It seems to be going up or down.
I pay 2:1 that it is up.
I say 3:1 that is down. Coins on the order book are peaking, money is going away. Yeah, those are just weak indicators, but it seems obvious to me that all the influx of new money just stopped with the correction. We're in the real price discovery phase here, and we may go lower... Anyhow this price level (or even $50ish BTW) is very good after the severe correction we had on April, 10th. Anything above $100 is very bullish mid-term IMO - and BTC is looking more bullish than ever in the long term.  |
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No new money sitting on the order book, on the contrary new coins are being added.* Wake up, the crazy influx of new money we had before the correction of April, 10th has stopped. 99% of people rushed to bitcoin to ride the bubble, now they are not interested in it anymore. No gloom and doom: BTC is stronger, more and more people are understanding it, but crazy rally has stopped. Now we are in the real phase of price discovery. Just a few months ago price was $14ish - now it will be higher than that, but it might be significantly lower than $140. Who cares. BTC is here for the long run, and we need stronger infrastructure (more exchanges, please!) and more BTC businesses going on apart from pure get-rich-quick speculation. *source: |
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I made it very clear I wanted to pay immediately, and was not provided that option.
That is why I both had my bid rescinded and will not be blacklisted.
That part needs to be clear.
Secondly, I made one(1) bid, and it was the last bid.
I drove nothing up.
Thirdly, as I have demonstrated in this thread, I had the money ready to pay.
You did not honor a binding bid - full stop. I was not provided the means to do so, and still have not been. Bottom line. Are you joking? Payment instruction are and were in the OP. The address to which you have to pay is the following: 1GfYjwX4uGQYDbqRtHYWMxCrMaVVWqK9DZ You can check it by yourself here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Al1fvFT7Sd5bdFhLaW9Lb05GT252UERSbkhJdm8yeHc#gid=0I see that now, but the point is that information needs to be provided immediately. The info was provided shortly after the end of the auction - it just took the time to compile the list of winners on a spreadsheet and to generate an individual address for each one of the winners. It's not possible to provide that info "immediately", nor friedcat nor John are working for you. Your bid was binding, and you deserve a scammer tag and to be blacklisted for not honoring it. I'm fed up of people abusing the auction subforum. Plus, you tried to pull a stunt re-selling for a huge premium some goods you did not even pay for, and for which you had no intention to pay if you did not find a buyer. I know that not honoring your bid breaks this forums rules - I don't know about the re-selling an item you don't own, but anyhow is shameful on your part. |
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I made it very clear I wanted to pay immediately, and was not provided that option.
That is why I both had my bid rescinded and will not be blacklisted.
That part needs to be clear.
Secondly, I made one(1) bid, and it was the last bid.
I drove nothing up.
Thirdly, as I have demonstrated in this thread, I had the money ready to pay.
You did not honor a binding bid - full stop. I was not provided the means to do so, and still have not been. Bottom line. Are you joking? Payment instruction are and were in the OP. The address to which you have to pay is the following: 1GfYjwX4uGQYDbqRtHYWMxCrMaVVWqK9DZ You can check it by yourself here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Al1fvFT7Sd5bdFhLaW9Lb05GT252UERSbkhJdm8yeHc#gid=0 |
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I made it very clear I wanted to pay immediately, and was not provided that option.
That is why I both had my bid rescinded and will not be blacklisted.
That part needs to be clear.
Secondly, I made one(1) bid, and it was the last bid.
I drove nothing up.
Thirdly, as I have demonstrated in this thread, I had the money ready to pay.
You did not honor a binding bid - full stop. |
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