I am available for you.  beats you on this nowadays:  Thank you for the disclosure. I don't know it because many months I did not visit BPIP to look at personal merit records. I usually visit it to see the list of top merit earners (include initial merits). Most Merit - BPIP. It will take me half of a year to rank up on that ranking list.  My free unofficial service provides something more but it seems people don't have much interest in such. |
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Another reason why fee is cheaper in weekends is block size is smaller in weekend days. Data and box plots for all time (2009 - 29 Oct 2020) or since 2017 so far show that fact. So to sum up, on the weekends, bitcoin network usually has: - Smaller block size.
- Less transaction counts.
- Cheaper transaction fee rates
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looking at the past 4 days of mempool in size (not in count) shows that there is still a slight growth in the size of the memepool seen on Johoe's tool. it indicates that we can't expect mempool "clearing" in the immediate future. but it also shows that the growth has been slowed down a little so the "clearing" shouldn't take that long.
additionally the bitcoin price rise has slowed down by becoming stable around $13500, if this continues we may initially see another spike (day traders may pull out and go to shitcoin pumping) and then the size shrinks. since we are close to weekend, it could contribute to it too.
Data was imported on 29 October 2020 (ends at block #654708), not recently but the plot shows time points at which mempool was clear sometimes in October. Whenever the p25 value of daily block size falls back to below 1 MB, mempool has chances to get clearer. I made a typo in plot title: The period is 01 Oct 2020 - 29 Oct 2020. All-time and 2020 plots |
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Hi WO gang, Have a beautiful weekend and enjoy the bull run of BTC. Today, I come back with another analysis, this time for Bitcoin block size and transaction fee (in satoshi/ kB or USD). Enjoy!
ABSTRACT- The network conditions are reflected by block size that in turn causes fee is high or low. The median value of daily block size in October is above 1.23 MB.
- In 2020 so far, the median of daily block size is 1.27 MB
- October is the month with transaction size are stable around 1.27 MB (see box plot with vertical line, box, whisker and raw results). In median, the latest 3 months (August - October) have same value at 1.27 MB
- In differences (%) between median of fee (in specific day to all days in 2020), people are paying more expensive fees in October: around 508% (in satoshis) or 20224% (in USD).
- The medians (all days in 2020) of fee per kB are 32467.2 satoshi or 0.1 USD
- In the last 3 months, more people accept higher fees that reflects by narrower gaps between differences of max - median and p75 - median (see plot)
- In median of daily max fee: people tend to accept 10+ USD for each kB in October. However, October is not the highest month, it is a third one instead. The 2 highest months are May and August. Reminder is outliers in October (latest days) are much higher than outliers in May or August.
- In median of daily daily median fee: people tend to accept 5 + USD for each kB in October and it is the third highest month, after May and August. The same data interpretation for outliers.
Time series plotsBlock size in MB (it is after I calculated medians for daily block size). Summary for variables: sizeMB
by categories of: month
month | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020m1 | 31.00 1.13 0.17 1.21 1.05 1.22 0.51 1.26
2020m2 | 29.00 1.23 0.04 1.24 1.21 1.26 1.13 1.28
2020m3 | 31.00 1.21 0.10 1.25 1.22 1.27 0.85 1.33
2020m4 | 30.00 1.19 0.12 1.23 1.17 1.26 0.79 1.30
2020m5 | 31.00 1.29 0.03 1.28 1.27 1.31 1.22 1.36
2020m6 | 30.00 1.23 0.12 1.27 1.24 1.29 0.78 1.33
2020m7 | 31.00 1.27 0.04 1.28 1.27 1.30 1.12 1.35
2020m8 | 31.00 1.29 0.02 1.29 1.27 1.31 1.25 1.34
2020m9 | 30.00 1.28 0.04 1.29 1.27 1.31 1.15 1.39
2020m10 | 29.00 1.29 0.02 1.29 1.28 1.30 1.23 1.35
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 303.00 1.24 0.10 1.27 1.23 1.29 0.51 1.39
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Block size (for all blocks in 2020). I don't calculate daily median for this one. Summary for variables: size
by categories of: m
m | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020m1 | 4737.00 974062.11 440761.55 1.19e+06 637357.00 1.29e+06 244.00 2.21e+06
2020m2 | 4154.00 1.10e+06 381206.27 1.24e+06 1.05e+06 1.32e+06 293.00 2.28e+06
2020m3 | 4255.00 1.10e+06 384647.89 1.24e+06 1.06e+06 1.32e+06 244.00 2.14e+06
2020m4 | 4513.00 1.08e+06 390384.36 1.22e+06 1.05e+06 1.30e+06 244.00 2.42e+06
2020m5 | 4192.00 1.27e+06 225990.99 1.28e+06 1.20e+06 1.36e+06 280.00 2.07e+06
2020m6 | 4549.00 1.15e+06 373225.21 1.26e+06 1.13e+06 1.34e+06 244.00 2.20e+06
2020m7 | 4589.00 1.23e+06 285914.06 1.28e+06 1.20e+06 1.35e+06 244.00 2.29e+06
2020m8 | 4521.00 1.28e+06 230549.31 1.29e+06 1.21e+06 1.36e+06 217.00 2.33e+06
2020m9 | 4531.00 1.24e+06 292441.24 1.29e+06 1.20e+06 1.36e+06 200.00 2.19e+06
2020m10 | 3977.00 1.25e+06 266874.59 1.29e+06 1.21e+06 1.36e+06 213.00 2.33e+06
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 44018.00 1.16e+06 349851.87 1.26e+06 1.15e+06 1.34e+06 200.00 2.42e+06
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Updates: Data was imported on 29 October 2020 (ends at block #654708), not recently but the plot shows time points at which mempool was clear sometimes in October. Whenever the p25 value of daily block size falls back to below 1 MB, mempool has chances to get clearer. I made a typo in plot title: The period is 01 Oct 2020 - 29 Oct 2020. All-time and 2020 plots |
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Notes: - nsenders: Sum of merit senders.
- ntransactions: Sum of merit transactions one user received his/her merits.
- nposts: Sum of posts one user received his/her merits.
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| rank_median username userid nsenders ntransactions nposts |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
1. | 1 LoyceV 459836 649 3388 1660 |
2. | 2 o_e_l_e_o 1188543 453 2882 1797 |
3. | 3 suchmoon 234771 443 2734 1720 |
4. | 4 El duderino_ 1067333 320 2718 1686 |
5. | 5 DdmrDdmr 1582324 435 2434 1343 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
6. | 6 fillippone 1852120 344 2616 1317 |
7. | 7 Last of the V8s 479624 263 2582 1680 |
8. | 8 mikeywith 2033515 274 1775 992 |
9. | 9 LFC_Bitcoin 379487 250 2035 1349 |
10. | 10 theymos 35 954 2670 530 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
11. | 11 nutildah 317618 334 1551 967 |
12. | 12 The Pharmacist 487418 338 1459 1027 |
13. | 13 JayJuanGee 252510 251 1781 1377 |
14. | 14 1miau 2143453 293 1696 796 |
15. | 15 achow101 290195 184 1301 531 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
16. | 16 HCP 867786 249 1394 856 |
17. | 17 gmaxwell 11425 187 1099 417 |
18. | 18 pooya87 379147 267 1502 981 |
19. | 19 VB1001 1138727 196 1705 1033 |
20. | 20 xhomerx10 120694 223 1301 742 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
21. | 21 TryNinja 557798 333 1366 884 |
22. | 22 HairyMaclairy 181806 156 1336 932 |
23. | 23 TheBeardedBaby 1291828 311 1117 504 |
24. | 24 BobLawblaw 569455 154 1229 751 |
25. | 25 philipma1957 64507 258 1009 760 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
26. | 26 gentlemand 155345 297 1245 942 |
27. | 27 ETFbitcoin 359716 234 938 659 |
28. | 28 bitmover 1554927 324 1202 621 |
29. | 29 abhiseshakana 1878246 136 1030 552 |
30. | 30 Hhampuz 881377 409 1271 582 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
31. | 31 mk4 886521 306 973 644 |
32. | 32 jojo69 49008 156 1112 744 |
33. | 33 Goran_ 1039323 125 878 685 |
34. | 34 Coolcryptovator 1980983 310 968 451 |
35. | 35 marlboroza 787736 234 784 483 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
36. | 36 mocacino 405464 220 964 514 |
37. | 37 nc50lc 1237156 192 931 506 |
38. | 38 mu_enrico 1574226 152 800 404 |
39. | 39 hugeblack 1059082 259 978 565 |
40. | 40 qwk 24140 222 941 566 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
41. | 41 bob123 579628 200 1137 708 |
42. | 42 hilariousetc 397737 220 935 575 |
43. | 43 Toxic2040 239406 135 1137 782 |
44. | 44 taikuri13 1855828 123 852 597 |
45. | 45 Vod 30747 319 860 485 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
46. | 46 DarkStar_ 507936 304 820 446 |
47. | 47 Carlton Banks 64205 157 763 457 |
48. | 48 BitCryptex 1169179 170 811 401 |
49. | 49 OmegaStarScream 375981 237 866 521 |
50. | 50 Plutosky 1237522 55 785 436 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
51. | 51 Jet Cash 698159 297 912 609 |
52. | 52 morvillz7z 1825672 169 758 389 |
53. | 53 yogg 140827 150 675 311 |
54. | 54 Steamtyme 1112531 200 802 455 |
55. | 55 tvplus006 1311641 247 918 340 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
56. | 56 krogothmanhattan 1000199 230 714 292 |
57. | 57 CryptopreneurBrainboss 1052091 295 887 406 |
58. | 58 DireWolfM14 2003859 221 914 504 |
59. | 59 tranthidung 1292764 293 1075 473 |
60. | 60 LeGaulois 507856 237 708 429 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
61. | 61 Lafu 805820 182 797 477 |
62. | 62 stompix 164749 246 765 576 |
63. | 63 asche 1580039 150 803 484 |
64. | 64 infofront 41175 148 799 474 |
65. | 65 Husna QA 1827294 144 792 381 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
66. | 66 joniboni 1275282 205 813 496 |
67. | 67 khaled0111 1012655 139 745 423 |
68. | 68 minerjones 346731 136 535 336 |
69. | 69 roycilik 1051955 163 864 348 |
70. | 70 Veleor 1177936 171 779 436 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
71. | 71 witcher_sense 1433865 164 992 429 |
72. | 72 Xal0lex 1068464 128 602 340 |
73. | 73 coinlocket$ 1339716 203 656 366 |
74. | 74 mole0815 1424178 148 975 703 |
75. | 75 yahoo62278 355846 406 868 358 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
76. | 76 actmyame 465017 201 578 391 |
77. | 77 Coding Enthusiast 879277 107 619 203 |
78. | 78 Lakai01 1724800 113 920 518 |
79. | 79 lovesmayfamilis 1982152 141 1046 501 |
80. | 80 wwzsocki 131333 178 691 370 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
81. | 81 Royse777 366632 215 585 359 |
82. | 82 Lauda 101872 246 796 518 |
83. | 83 JSRAW 1210969 154 815 506 |
84. | 84 xtraelv 897509 229 766 344 |
85. | 85 aundroid 1015954 124 731 439 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
86. | 86 satoshi 3 273 379 65 |
87. | 87 PHI16168 1071136 117 426 185 |
88. | 88 SaltySpitoon 38894 112 391 227 |
89. | 89 tyKiwanuka 1025255 145 677 406 |
90. | 90 TMAN 98986 214 605 365 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
91. | 91 Kalemder 487377 147 644 278 |
92. | 92 Piggy 188198 192 449 147 |
93. | 93 dkbit98 1410401 186 852 321 |
94. | 94 masulum 1283017 152 678 260 |
95. | 95 nullius 976210 256 883 411 |
|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
96. | 96 efialtis 2597426 188 711 380 |
97. | 97 bullrun2020bro 2744352 113 849 452 |
98. | 98 Rikafip 2658890 202 924 388 |
99. | 99 zasad@ 2654005 246 910 400 |
100. | 100 Ratimov 2627711 287 1580 817 |
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
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Update 2020w43ABSTRACT- Period: 2018w4 - 2020w44 30oct2020 02:35:35 (GMT time).
- Observed weeks: 143
- Incomple weeks: 2018w4, 2020w44.
- The last merit transaction is at 30oct2020 02:35:35 (GMT time)
List of top 100 merit earners, sorted descendingly by sum of earned merits: +-------------------------------------------------------+
| rank_total username userid total |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
1. | 1 theymos 35 6953 |
2. | 2 LoyceV 459836 6087 |
3. | 3 o_e_l_e_o 1188543 5024 |
4. | 4 suchmoon 234771 4777 |
5. | 5 DdmrDdmr 1582324 4429 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
6. | 6 fillippone 1852120 4382 |
7. | 7 El duderino_ 1067333 4169 |
8. | 8 Last of the V8s 479624 3824 |
9. | 9 gmaxwell 11425 3416 |
10. | 10 mikeywith 2033515 3105 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
11. | 11 LFC_Bitcoin 379487 2841 |
12. | 12 Ratimov 2627711 2788 |
13. | 13 nutildah 317618 2741 |
14. | 14 The Pharmacist 487418 2718 |
15. | 15 1miau 2143453 2663 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
16. | 16 achow101 290195 2514 |
17. | 17 HCP 867786 2496 |
18. | 18 TryNinja 557798 2377 |
19. | 19 JayJuanGee 252510 2372 |
20. | 20 Hhampuz 881377 2354 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
21. | 21 satoshi 3 2345 |
22. | 22 xhomerx10 120694 2321 |
23. | 23 VB1001 1138727 2300 |
24. | 24 pooya87 379147 2228 |
25. | 25 TheBeardedBaby 1291828 2140 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
26. | 26 hilariousetc 397737 1990 |
27. | 27 bitmover 1554927 1986 |
28. | 28 nullius 976210 1966 |
29. | 29 gentlemand 155345 1939 |
30. | 30 abhiseshakana 1878246 1923 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
31. | 31 bob123 579628 1865 |
32. | 32 tranthidung 1292764 1863 |
33. | 33 DireWolfM14 2003859 1861 |
34. | 34 Toxic2040 239406 1772 |
35. | 35 zasad@ 2654005 1756 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
36. | 36 Lauda 101872 1751 |
37. | 37 qwk 24140 1750 |
38. | 38 philipma1957 64507 1737 |
39. | 39 Steamtyme 1112531 1731 |
40. | 40 Vod 30747 1728 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
41. | 41 HairyMaclairy 181806 1712 |
42. | 42 mocacino 405464 1702 |
43. | 43 marlboroza 787736 1680 |
44. | 44 xtraelv 897509 1675 |
45. | 45 yogg 140827 1644 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
46. | 46 BobLawblaw 569455 1642 |
47. | 47 BitCryptex 1169179 1616 |
48. | 48 krogothmanhattan 1000199 1594 |
49. | 49 witcher_sense 1433865 1563 |
50. | 50 ETFbitcoin 359716 1554 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
51. | 51 jojo69 49008 1554 |
52. | 52 Jet Cash 698159 1553 |
53. | 53 CryptopreneurBrainboss 1052091 1546 |
54. | 54 yahoo62278 355846 1537 |
55. | 55 roycilik 1051955 1517 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
56. | 56 hugeblack 1059082 1510 |
57. | 57 nc50lc 1237156 1509 |
58. | 58 Coolcryptovator 1980983 1502 |
59. | 59 Veleor 1177936 1481 |
60. | 60 morvillz7z 1825672 1475 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
61. | 61 DarkStar_ 507936 1467 |
62. | 62 lovesmayfamilis 1982152 1444 |
63. | 63 joniboni 1275282 1439 |
64. | 64 mu_enrico 1574226 1435 |
65. | 65 Rikafip 2658890 1427 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
66. | 66 Coding Enthusiast 879277 1419 |
67. | 67 Husna QA 1827294 1416 |
68. | 68 mk4 886521 1403 |
69. | 69 OmegaStarScream 375981 1390 |
70. | 70 mole0815 1424178 1380 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
71. | 71 Carlton Banks 64205 1362 |
72. | 72 taikuri13 1855828 1356 |
73. | 73 tvplus006 1311641 1339 |
74. | 74 coinlocket$ 1339716 1334 |
75. | 75 Lakai01 1724800 1331 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
76. | 76 minerjones 346731 1322 |
77. | 77 Plutosky 1237522 1314 |
78. | 78 asche 1580039 1310 |
79. | 79 TMAN 98986 1305 |
80. | 80 LeGaulois 507856 1299 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
81. | 81 stompix 164749 1290 |
82. | 82 tyKiwanuka 1025255 1270 |
83. | 83 dkbit98 1410401 1253 |
84. | 84 Goran_ 1039323 1228 |
85. | 85 JSRAW 1210969 1223 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
86. | 86 bullrun2020bro 2744352 1216 |
87. | 87 Kalemder 487377 1207 |
88. | 88 Lafu 805820 1198 |
89. | 89 infofront 41175 1181 |
90. | 90 actmyame 465017 1176 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
91. | 91 masulum 1283017 1168 |
92. | 92 Piggy 188198 1159 |
93. | 93 SaltySpitoon 38894 1148 |
94. | 94 efialtis 2597426 1142 |
95. | 95 khaled0111 1012655 1137 |
|-------------------------------------------------------|
96. | 96 Xal0lex 1068464 1137 |
97. | 97 aundroid 1015954 1135 |
98. | 98 wwzsocki 131333 1130 |
99. | 99 Royse777 366632 1128 |
100. | 100 PHI16168 1071136 1122 |
+-------------------------------------------------------+
Algorithm: The idea are a narrower IQR and higher p25 are better. IQR plays its role as spread of weekly earned merits. p25 plays its role as lower threshold of 50% weekly earned merits. - Descending median
- Ascending IQR (IQR = p75 - p25)
- Descending p25
The new algorithm means if 2 users have same median, their ranks will be decided by IQR, which user has lower IQR will have higher position in the list. Next, if 2 users still have same IQR, the last indicator will be used: p25. The user has higher p25 value will have higher position. +----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| rank_median username userid median iqr p25 p75 min max |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
1. | 1 LoyceV 459836 38 33 23 56 2 115 |
2. | 2 o_e_l_e_o 1188543 33 27 20 47 0 101 |
3. | 3 suchmoon 234771 29 26 17 43 0 148 |
4. | 4 El duderino_ 1067333 27 22 17 39 0 100 |
5. | 5 DdmrDdmr 1582324 25 25 16 41 0 106 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
6. | 6 fillippone 1852120 24 51 2 53 0 141 |
7. | 7 Last of the V8s 479624 23 23 14 37 0 118 |
8. | 8 mikeywith 2033515 20 31 1 32 0 92 |
9. | 9 LFC_Bitcoin 379487 18 20 7 27 0 73 |
10. | 10 theymos 35 18 45 7 52 0 1328 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
11. | 11 nutildah 317618 16 24 4 28 0 94 |
12. | 12 The Pharmacist 487418 15 17 8 25 0 93 |
13. | 13 JayJuanGee 252510 15 17 6 23 0 54 |
14. | 14 1miau 2143453 15 21 4 25 0 100 |
15. | 15 achow101 290195 14 15 7 22 0 77 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
16. | 16 HCP 867786 14 18 5 23 0 128 |
17. | 17 gmaxwell 11425 14 25 5 30 0 178 |
18. | 18 pooya87 379147 13 14 7 21 0 48 |
19. | 19 VB1001 1138727 13 26 0 26 0 98 |
20. | 20 xhomerx10 120694 12 14 6 20 0 121 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
21. | 21 TryNinja 557798 12 15 6 21 0 173 |
22. | 22 HairyMaclairy 181806 11 15 2 17 0 56 |
23. | 23 TheBeardedBaby 1291828 11 20 4 24 0 52 |
24. | 24 BobLawblaw 569455 10 10 5 15 0 55 |
25. | 25 philipma1957 64507 10 11 5 16 0 55 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
26. | 26 gentlemand 155345 10 13 5 18 0 74 |
27. | 27 ETFbitcoin 359716 9 10 4 14 0 50 |
28. | 28 bitmover 1554927 9 12 5 17 0 127 |
29. | 29 abhiseshakana 1878246 9 18 2 20 0 73 |
30. | 30 Hhampuz 881377 9 19 4 23 0 92 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
31. | 31 mk4 886521 8 9 4 13 0 52 |
32. | 32 jojo69 49008 8 9 4 13 0 102 |
33. | 33 Goran_ 1039323 8 9 3 12 0 36 |
34. | 34 Coolcryptovator 1980983 8 11 3 14 0 64 |
35. | 35 marlboroza 787736 8 11 3 14 0 79 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
36. | 36 mocacino 405464 8 12 4 16 0 50 |
37. | 37 nc50lc 1237156 8 12 2 14 0 68 |
38. | 38 mu_enrico 1574226 8 12 2 14 0 78 |
39. | 39 hugeblack 1059082 8 13 2 15 0 62 |
40. | 40 qwk 24140 8 14 2 16 0 88 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
41. | 41 bob123 579628 8 16 3 19 0 68 |
42. | 42 hilariousetc 397737 8 19 1 20 0 90 |
43. | 43 Toxic2040 239406 8 21 0 21 0 105 |
44. | 44 taikuri13 1855828 7 9 4 13 0 36 |
45. | 45 Vod 30747 7 10 3 13 0 158 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
46. | 46 DarkStar_ 507936 7 10 2 12 0 78 |
47. | 47 Carlton Banks 64205 7 11 2 13 0 76 |
48. | 48 BitCryptex 1169179 7 12 3 15 0 126 |
49. | 49 OmegaStarScream 375981 7 12 2 14 0 43 |
50. | 50 Plutosky 1237522 7 12 2 14 0 43 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
51. | 51 Jet Cash 698159 7 13 2 15 0 65 |
52. | 52 morvillz7z 1825672 7 13 1 14 0 58 |
53. | 53 yogg 140827 7 13 1 14 0 91 |
54. | 54 Steamtyme 1112531 7 14 2 16 0 115 |
55. | 55 tvplus006 1311641 7 14 1 15 0 42 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
56. | 56 krogothmanhattan 1000199 7 14 1 15 0 77 |
57. | 57 CryptopreneurBrainboss 1052091 7 15 0 15 0 81 |
58. | 58 DireWolfM14 2003859 7 16 1 17 0 84 |
59. | 59 tranthidung 1292764 7 17 1 18 0 98 |
60. | 60 LeGaulois 507856 6 8 3 11 0 64 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
61. | 61 Lafu 805820 6 9 2 11 0 41 |
62. | 62 stompix 164749 6 10 3 13 0 62 |
63. | 63 asche 1580039 6 10 2 12 0 50 |
64. | 64 infofront 41175 6 10 2 12 0 74 |
65. | 65 Husna QA 1827294 6 10 2 12 0 62 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
66. | 66 joniboni 1275282 6 11 3 14 0 54 |
67. | 67 khaled0111 1012655 6 12 0 12 0 42 |
68. | 68 minerjones 346731 6 13 1 14 0 67 |
69. | 69 roycilik 1051955 6 15 2 17 0 48 |
70. | 70 Veleor 1177936 6 15 0 15 0 90 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
71. | 71 witcher_sense 1433865 6 17 0 17 0 76 |
72. | 72 Xal0lex 1068464 5 8 2 10 0 116 |
73. | 73 coinlocket$ 1339716 5 9 2 11 0 98 |
74. | 74 mole0815 1424178 5 9 2 11 0 73 |
75. | 75 yahoo62278 355846 5 10 2 12 0 130 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
76. | 76 actmyame 465017 5 11 1 12 0 66 |
77. | 77 Coding Enthusiast 879277 5 11 0 11 0 116 |
78. | 78 Lakai01 1724800 5 13 1 14 0 63 |
79. | 79 lovesmayfamilis 1982152 5 16 0 16 0 45 |
80. | 80 wwzsocki 131333 4 9 1 10 0 70 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
81. | 81 Royse777 366632 4 11 0 11 0 59 |
82. | 82 Lauda 101872 4 13 1 14 0 238 |
83. | 83 JSRAW 1210969 4 13 0 13 0 76 |
84. | 84 xtraelv 897509 4 16 1 17 0 104 |
85. | 85 aundroid 1015954 3 7 0 7 0 64 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
86. | 86 satoshi 3 3 15 1 16 0 482 |
87. | 87 PHI16168 1071136 2 8 0 8 0 85 |
88. | 88 SaltySpitoon 38894 2 10 0 10 0 94 |
89. | 89 tyKiwanuka 1025255 2 13 0 13 0 107 |
90. | 90 TMAN 98986 1 5 0 5 0 275 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
91. | 91 Kalemder 487377 1 7 0 7 0 161 |
92. | 92 Piggy 188198 1 12 0 12 0 85 |
93. | 93 dkbit98 1410401 1 13 0 13 0 63 |
94. | 94 masulum 1283017 1 13 0 13 0 61 |
95. | 95 nullius 976210 0 10 0 10 0 180 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
96. | 96 efialtis 2597426 0 11 0 11 0 55 |
97. | 97 bullrun2020bro 2744352 0 11 0 11 0 98 |
98. | 98 Rikafip 2658890 0 16 0 16 0 100 |
99. | 99 zasad@ 2654005 0 20 0 20 0 73 |
100. | 100 Ratimov 2627711 0 34 0 34 0 132 |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
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ABSTRACT- The network conditions are reflected by block size that in turn causes fee is high or low. The median value of daily block size in October is above 1.23 MB.
- In 2020 so far, the median of daily block size is 1.27 MB
- October is the month with transaction size are stable around 1.27 MB (see box plot with vertical line, box, whisker and raw results). In median, the latest 3 months (August - October) have same value at 1.27 MB
- In differences (%) between median of fee (in specific day to all days in 2020), people are paying more expensive fees in October: around 508% (in satoshis) or 20224% (in USD).
- The medians (all days in 2020) of fee per kB are 32467.2 satoshi or 0.1 USD
- In the last 3 months, more people accept higher fees that reflects by narrower gaps between differences of max - median and p75 - median (see plot)
- In median of daily max fee: people tend to accept 10+ USD for each kB in October. However, October is not the highest month, it is a third one instead. The 2 highest months are May and August. Reminder is outliers in October (latest days) are much higher than outliers in May or August.
- In median of daily daily median fee: people tend to accept 5 + USD for each kB in October and it is the third highest month, after May and August. The same data interpretation for outliers.
Time series plotsBlock size in MB (it is after I calculated medians for daily block size). Summary for variables: sizeMB
by categories of: month
month | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020m1 | 31.00 1.13 0.17 1.21 1.05 1.22 0.51 1.26
2020m2 | 29.00 1.23 0.04 1.24 1.21 1.26 1.13 1.28
2020m3 | 31.00 1.21 0.10 1.25 1.22 1.27 0.85 1.33
2020m4 | 30.00 1.19 0.12 1.23 1.17 1.26 0.79 1.30
2020m5 | 31.00 1.29 0.03 1.28 1.27 1.31 1.22 1.36
2020m6 | 30.00 1.23 0.12 1.27 1.24 1.29 0.78 1.33
2020m7 | 31.00 1.27 0.04 1.28 1.27 1.30 1.12 1.35
2020m8 | 31.00 1.29 0.02 1.29 1.27 1.31 1.25 1.34
2020m9 | 30.00 1.28 0.04 1.29 1.27 1.31 1.15 1.39
2020m10 | 29.00 1.29 0.02 1.29 1.28 1.30 1.23 1.35
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 303.00 1.24 0.10 1.27 1.23 1.29 0.51 1.39
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Block size (for all blocks in 2020). I don't calculate daily median for this one. Summary for variables: size
by categories of: m
m | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020m1 | 4737.00 974062.11 440761.55 1.19e+06 637357.00 1.29e+06 244.00 2.21e+06
2020m2 | 4154.00 1.10e+06 381206.27 1.24e+06 1.05e+06 1.32e+06 293.00 2.28e+06
2020m3 | 4255.00 1.10e+06 384647.89 1.24e+06 1.06e+06 1.32e+06 244.00 2.14e+06
2020m4 | 4513.00 1.08e+06 390384.36 1.22e+06 1.05e+06 1.30e+06 244.00 2.42e+06
2020m5 | 4192.00 1.27e+06 225990.99 1.28e+06 1.20e+06 1.36e+06 280.00 2.07e+06
2020m6 | 4549.00 1.15e+06 373225.21 1.26e+06 1.13e+06 1.34e+06 244.00 2.20e+06
2020m7 | 4589.00 1.23e+06 285914.06 1.28e+06 1.20e+06 1.35e+06 244.00 2.29e+06
2020m8 | 4521.00 1.28e+06 230549.31 1.29e+06 1.21e+06 1.36e+06 217.00 2.33e+06
2020m9 | 4531.00 1.24e+06 292441.24 1.29e+06 1.20e+06 1.36e+06 200.00 2.19e+06
2020m10 | 3977.00 1.25e+06 266874.59 1.29e+06 1.21e+06 1.36e+06 213.00 2.33e+06
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 44018.00 1.16e+06 349851.87 1.26e+06 1.15e+06 1.34e+06 200.00 2.42e+06
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In October 2020 Data was imported on 29 October 2020 (ends at block #654708), not recently but the plot shows time points at which mempool was clear sometimes in October. Whenever the p25 value of daily block size falls back to below 1 MB, mempool has chances to get clearer. I made a typo in plot title: The period is 01 Oct 2020 - 29 Oct 2020. All-time and 2020 plots |
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It is partially true, witcher_sense. 
Greed and lack of knowledge then experience cause all of such. - Bitcoin total supply is fixed and I believe most of bitcoin investors know about that.
- It is interesting to see many people are misled by news that "Bitcoin is scarce (because of its finite supply)". Such news mostly are seeded repeatedly when whales manipulate the market.
- Lack of knowledge and experience force people to join fee race. Many people called them as bitcoin investors but don't know what is confirmation, what is txhash and I don't feel strange if those people give their bitcoin to exchanges to broadcast and charge high fees.
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It is a bump! (for the coming weekend)I hope that newbies who don't understand how bitcoin transactions are confirmed and how mempool changes will take this bull run of bitcoin price and transaction fee to learn. It is a valuable live course and it does not happen too regularly. Read OP and a few posts in this thread as well as the quoted post, then observe mempool to see how it goes next few days or even up to 2 weeks. In the last 30 days, there are 3 periods in which mempool size exceeds 50 MB (first in early days of October, second around 21 October at 53 MB -- the purple arrow, and the third is now with 62 MB in mempool. In percent, there is an increase of 17% in mempool size compares to what it was on 21 October 2020. After that day, mempool was dipped and almost clear. I am not over pessimistic but nothing is too bad like a catastrophe here and now. - Institutional and weekend effects
- A bit stability of bitcoin next few days
- We can have better fee rate. It is my expectation but if it happens, people should move or consolidate their bitcoin when fee is cheaper before mid of November.
https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,30d |
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How about altcoin price actions in this amazing run of bitcoin? |
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In the last 30 days, there are 3 periods in which mempool size exceeds 50 MB (first in early days of October, second around 21 October at 53 MB -- the purple arrow, and the third is now with 62 MB in mempool. In percent, there is an increase of 17% in mempool size compares to what it was on 21 October 2020. After that day, mempool was dipped and almost clear. I am not over pessimistic but nothing is too bad like a catastrophe here and now. - Institutional and weekend effects
- A bit stability of bitcoin next few days
- We can have better fee rate. It is my expectation but if it happens, people should move or consolidate their bitcoin when fee is cheaper before mid of November.
https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,30d |
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That transaction was made on 2020-10-26 15:19 UTC. It was about exactly 4 days ago (as of writing, it is 18:48 UTC 30 Oct 2020). - Replace-by-fee was not chosen by the sender so you can get vague idea that sender did know what (s)he was doing.
- Fee rate: 69 satoshi/byte.
With the 1 week window, you can check more details: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,1wThat transaction would be an instant one with first confirmation in next 1 or 2 blocks. The screenshot (at 15:11 UTC) is not totally correct because around 15:18 UTC, there was less than 1 MB in mempool from the tip to 70 satoshi/ byte fee rate. I don't know when the sender sign that transaction but it seems to be a very quickly confirmed transaction and it was made when the total size of mempool is about 10 MB. It was done before the transaction fee storm. |
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See? Just pay 3 satoshis per byte and wait a day, rather than a hundred+ for half a day...
You always can get cheaper transaction fees if you can wait for 6 hours. Instant transactions with first confirmation within next 1 or 2 blocks eat up your capital because fee rates to use are always at tip of mempool (never be cheap). |
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With different capital in hands, people need to have different investment or trading strategies to get profits or to exit at price they want (take profit or cut loss, it depends). - Volume is most important factor when you invest or trade. If a coin or token has very low volume that much lower than the amount you plan to invest or trade with it, you will get troubles for your orders. Your orders might not be filled up at price you want or won't be filled up at all.
- It is easy to exit with $100 for most of coins or tokens on the market.
- It is challenging to exit with $10000 (more than 0.7 BTC) if you set your order at a single price. It is not a matter with bitcoin but for most of altcoins, you will get troubles.
- Your orders look big enough to be considered as supports or resistances by others
- You can see profit on screen but if you can not exit, you won't get profit in hands
Solutions: - Make your orders sparesly at different price will help them are easier to be filled.
- Make good allocation for your capital to a few coins/ tokens for your capital part for altcoins or tokens, not bitcoin.
- Diversification helps you
- Reduce risks from scam coins/ tokens and their unexpected dumps or scam exits.
- Might be easier to exit anytime you want.
- Bitcoin should account for 70% to 80% of your portfolio.
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What do you think about the fees and the perspectives?
- Price of bitcoin will become more stable (maintains around $13000 or dump first then has a new stable price range). People will not be crazy accept high fee because their demands to buy or take profits will become less.
- Next difficulty adjustment will help to deal with latest drop in total hashrates.
- Mempool will be better (smaller size) and fee will become cheaper
To compare transaction fees over periods, I think it is better if you use fees in satoshi or BTC, not in USD. 2 transactions with same transaction size, same fee rate will have different fees in USD. |
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I've checked two charts for 26 October and I think that the difference may be caused by timezone. One chart tells that average fee was 3.44$ that day, another one tells 5.74$. - Timezones make differences because there are geographical locations from which more bitcoin transactions will made. More transaction counts do cause higher transaction fee.
- Days of week make difference too. Weekends usually give you better fee rate (cheaper). Do you know that in last weekend, there are few times mempool was dipped to 1 satoshi/(v)byte before all things go up?
- Another reason is average and median are different statistics. Average can be seriously affected by outliers (red circles in the box plot) but median can not. You can call median as true average statistics of a sample.
More details is here Bitcoin transaction fees (feer per KB - in USD) with median, outliers, plotsThere were people who spent $153 per kb for his/ her transaction. Crazy sender! About weekend and institutional effects (I gonna give you updates and improve that thread later). Weekend to come so please consolidate your coins and / or move your funds to save fees. If you don't have need to move your coins, consolidate them instead (at 1 satoshi/byte). Look at below statistics for latest update and compare median transaction fees (in satoshis/ kB) on Sunday and Saturday to Friday: - Friday: 18471
- Saturday: 14258 (22.8% cheaper)
- Sunday: 12701 (31.2% cheaper)
Transaction fee is decided by transaction size and fee rate. - Fee rate: Senders can set any fee rate they want -- of course, must avoid 0 satoshi/(v)byte.
- Transaction size: is decided by input and output (types and numbers).
If you make 2 transactions with same type and same fee rate, just different in the amount of bitcoin (and value in USD), 2 transactions will have same transaction fee.
Reminders- Consolidate your small inputs (I learned it from LoyceV). If you do it on last weekend, today you can make transaction with cheaper fees (even you have to make 2 transactions, 1 on last weekend and 1 today)
- Observe mempool and plan your transactions (days of week and hourframe)
- Sign your transaction with opt-in Replace-by-Fee option (just in case) when fee rate is low
- Be your own bank with non-custodial wallet. If you use custodial wallet or store your bitcoin on exchanges, casinos you have accept funny situations
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Great thread but I would like to give OP and readers another thread on Locktime from LoyceV. I read LoyceV's thread in 2019 but never mind to think of when I will use it. I am not a bitcoin whale so at the moment I have not yet imagined when I will use Locktime. At least now the forum has 2 threads on Locktime (Paper wallet and Electrum wallet). Both 2 threads are in my spreadsheet. Using Locktime for inheritance planning, backups or giftsMastering bitcoin 1st edition, chapter 5TRANSACTION LOCKTIME
Locktime defines the earliest time that a transaction can be added to the blockchain. It is set to zero in most transactions to indicate immediate execution. If locktime is nonzero and below 500 million, it is interpreted as a block height, meaning the transaction is not included in the blockchain prior to the specified block height. If it is above 500 million, it is interpreted as a Unix Epoch timestamp (seconds since Jan-1-1970) and the transaction is not included in the blockchain prior to the specified time. The use of locktime is equivalent to postdating a paper check.
I don't know I can not find it in the chapter 6 of its 2nd version |
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Thank you sir for permission to translate your thread. But before that I apologized because I just finished today and I made it. This is all because of Covid-19, my job is a bit tougher. The following is the result of my translation in the Indonesian Sub Forum [Edukasi][Diskusi]- Daftar Halaman Tersembunyi dan DeskripsiOnce again, thank you very much, this is very useful for me and maybe in a local forum. Thanks for your time to translate it. I did not remember I have conversation with you in PM.  I always reply to any people who contact me in PM for acceptance to do translations of my threads "You are free, always to do so. Just remember to leave links (for respect and for your account safety -- plagiarism causes perma-ban) Please correct this typo in your translation too. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Halaman Tersembunyi/ fitur | | | Deskripsi penggunaan | | | | | | PGB Kunci Publik | | | PGB Kunci Publik | | |
Is it just a typo? Because as far as I know the correct one is PGP (Pretty Good Privacy) Public Key.
It is a typo and you make me surprised that I did neither notice the typo nor many guests of this thread. I therefore much thankful for your typo finding. After month, it has been corrected. |
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"Never be correct", even if both assets were literally moving together for months? While they've moved the opposite ways recently, it still doesn't change the fact that they were somewhat correlated. This isn't even an opinion. It's just data.
"All models are wrong" according to George Box. There are many contributors (variables) to a model. You have to make decisions to keep this variable while exclude another variable. No matter the final models you like the most are, all of them are wrong at somewhat levels and at some points of time. Model A can be right today but it will be wrong later. The unbelievable weak down in March of 2020 is a lively example for this. There is no model can control all those things. The amazing thing is if you can build a good model from which you can get some points to use. It is not perfect but you can use with your awareness of uncertainty. Models are built from past conditions, data and with the assumption that future conditions won't change much. In reality, life is different and it happens in uncontrollable way. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_models_are_wrong |
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Using the 30 days MA will always give you "terrible" results, the number of blocks found in 30 days is a drop in the ocean as far as the 210,000 blocks are concerned, so getting 7 years halving estimate is pretty normal, getting 2 years is also nothing out of the ordinary, can you do another analysis from the last halving to the latest block? one more thing, you should use block time, ignore the confirmation thing, I remember you made a topic about empty blocks? you could use the same data from LoyceV.
Thank you. It is my mistake from carelessness with the likely wrong term from bitinfocharts.com. From my mistake, I looked back and see they use confirmation time ~ block time. This discussion sheds a light for me that the confirmation time shows how generous or parsimonious or relevant people do their bitcoin transactions over time. There are some factors behind (knowledge, practice, skills, urgent needs, etc.) but somewhat can give us some ideas. |
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