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4261  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Bulls Keep Charging to Upside Targets on: March 28, 2019, 10:22:33 AM
Quoted for others to see image without entering link.



Very interesting. Now open the same chart but not with 1h candles but with 1w candles and you will see that all you are saying is small rise with decreasing volume and decreasing long of candles

And that's alarming. We may see very aggressive dump.
4262  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling Strategy on: March 28, 2019, 09:35:20 AM
I think a good strategy is to bring lots of capital while gambling, so we can do gambling with various tricks and all possibilities. because we always wait for luck, and if we only bring a little capital, then we can lose that lucky moment.
That is the right thing to do.  If you have  big capitals it gives an opportunity for you to invest little by little and in a long run if you are lucky to win some of bet you will be in profits.

That's the worst strategy. The longer you play the output is closer to statistical distribution. Means that the longer you play the bigger advantage casino gets because it has statistic advantage in every game.
The Best strategy that is based on mathematics (not assumptions) to get rich in casino is to take as much money as you can lose and bet everything on single number in roulette. If you win and that's still not enough for you than you bet it all on single number again. After that you are either x1300 or x0 and go home. That's the strategy that provides the best probability of doing x1000.

All others (especially yours - spending whole day with low bets hoping to get luck) only decrease probability of gaining profit.
4263  Economy / Speculation / Re: What will happen when the stock market crashes? on: March 28, 2019, 09:26:01 AM
Knowing a fact that the average life expectancy for a fiat currency is 27 years interesting things might happened when dollar will be affected by hyperinflation. What would than happened with bitcoin price in $ and other currencies?


According to a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org, there is no historical precedence for a fiat currency that has succeeded in holding its value. Twenty percent failed through hyperinflation, 21% were destroyed by war, 12% destroyed by independence, 24% were monetarily reformed, and 23% are still in circulation approaching one of the other outcomes.

The average life expectancy for a fiat currency is 27 years, with the shortest life span being one month. Founded in 1694, the British pound Sterling is the oldest fiat currency in existence. At a ripe old age of 317 years it must be considered a highly successful fiat currency. However, success is relative. The British pound was defined as 12 ounces of silver, so it's worth less than 1/200 or 0.5% of its original value. In other words, the most successful long standing currency in existence has lost 99.5% of its value. source: http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2011/01/23/time-different-dollar


4264  Local / Polski / Re: Signature campaign on: March 28, 2019, 09:19:11 AM
Sporo tych kampanii ostatnio u niego startuje. Czyżby to była jaskółka hossy?
Widzę, że się zgłosiłeś. Trzymam kciuki.


Mam kolejną ciekawą:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5118558.0

Płatna w ETH, sponsorowana przez IOTX (CMC - https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/iotex/) potwiedzona przez admina na telegramie:
Quote
[Forwarded from IoTeX Announcement Channel]
🎈 IoTeX Bitcointalk Signature Campaign has started!
🙌 Help us to spread the word after voting starts ➡️https://goo.gl/wyPiK2
Tylko bounty manager nie znany.
Płatne w ETH:
10 spots for Members - 0.025 ETH/week
20 spots for Full Members - 0.05 ETH/week
20 spots for Sr. Members - 0.1 ETH/week   (ok. 13$)
20 spots for Hero & Legendary Members - 0.2 ETH/week

Min. 15 postów z czego 9 może być na lokalu.Więc wypłata nie jest zdumiewająco wysoka, ale zato wymagania są zdumiewająco niskie.
4265  Local / Polski / Re: Signature campaign on: March 27, 2019, 04:15:59 PM
nowa kampania od hampuz, czyli naszego ulubionego bounty managera. To najlepsza kampania z wolnymi miejscami dla tych rang, więc polecam (są lepiej płatne ale kolejka jak po mięso za komuny, a tu świeża z wolnymi miejscami).
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5124985.msg50330943#msg50330943
Hero i Legendery member. Do 0.02 btc za tydzień za 50 postów.
4266  Economy / Speculation / Re: What will happen when the stock market crashes? on: March 27, 2019, 04:12:44 PM
We need to remember that we are already dumped. There is not much space for further price falling due to lack of weak hands. Last news about delisting bitcoin futures from CBOE did not move the price.
People didn't pay attention to CBOE halting their Bitcoin futures due to their poor volumes. Doing $4-$5 million a day in volume is well below what a trashy exchange such as Yobit generates.

I strongly believe that right now most of the weak hands are out already. What we are left with are those who are still in doubt but firmly hold just because they think that's the right thing to do because people say so.

It may require one more flash dump to make even these people unload their coins to get rid of what is left in latent selling pressure. The price re-testing its December low will very likely do it.

I agree with you. I only think that average Lambo guy don't know that. He thinks that ETF and BAKKT will safe bitcoin and seeing delisting futures should go and dump his coins. And we didn't see that. That means that there are less weak hands on asset.
4267  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling Strategy on: March 27, 2019, 11:12:40 AM
Controlling your bet will still depend on the experience and what kind of gambling you are playing. Using martingale is effective if you have a lot of budget for betting at the small scale gambling but as I have said, it still depends on the game you want to bet on.

Martingale is not effective. It decreases your probability of doubling in comparison to betting everything on red and going home. I've code simulation for that. Here are my results.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5112216.msg49832531#msg49832531

and odds in roulette

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5111520.msg49808336#msg49808336



4268  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin 4-year cycle is it real? Probable end year rally for Bitcoin on: March 27, 2019, 11:08:15 AM
I think that it's safe to say halving has and will have a significant impact in the emergence of bull markets, because of the fact that the relative scarcity of newly mined coins all of a sudden increase and markets react to that, as well as the psychological aspect of people's expectations based on previous halvings pushing demand up.

I beg to differ. People have been expecting the past halving events to bring something good to the crypto table but in reality, it just cuts down the reward for miners and the relative scarcity is just increased. It is expected to bring price rises but in reality, there really is no guarantee accompanied with the reward halving. Traders might also expect some positive trading signal but then again halving events =/ price increases. As for the 4-year cycle, I don't know. We only have had two of the said 'cycle' so it's hard to call it with utmost certainty.

Agreed. Its just decrease of inflation by few %. Thats it.

Technically it could pump price like few %. But fomo guys will pump it 100% i their wont be dumped by whale.

To the bitcoin cycles. Bitcoin is very young and immature. Its hard to predict what would happened on 60 bil market asset looking at its behaviour 4 years ago at 3 bil marketcap. Its totally different type of asset and will act totally different.
4269  Economy / Economics / Re: Why exchanges constantly expose you to the risk of losing your capital. on: March 27, 2019, 09:51:03 AM
I don't think that this is necessarily an issue.

Traders go into a recently listed asset and know that when it first gets listed, the prices will be artificially inflated for a period of time as the markets adjust to the normal deposit/withdrawals, as well as the hype from the listing quietens down. The volume that is generated at these kinds of prices is most likely very low anyways, because people with some common sense will know that at the beginning, it's as good as a purely speculative token.

I guess they don't know that when they place market buy order without order book fulfilled they might buy coin for 3000 sat instead of 700 sat. If they knew that they won't do that. How they could know what's in order book if order book is not visible before opening trades.

There is nothing the exchange can do to stop this anyhow. They provide the orderbook and the trading engine, and nothing else. They can't manipulate the pricing of the orders, or revert orders from previous instances, because it's not their right or obligation to do so.
Its called price fixing and its happening during every session on stock market. Before opening trades they have orders like:

Code:
sell
999
998
997
995
650
630
600
200
at any price

buy
at any price
850
840
830
820
700
500
200
During fixing exchange calculate crash price at for example 700 sat and fulfill sell orders with 200 600 630 650 sell prices giving custommers even better price (they sold for 700 not 200-650) and 850, 840, 830, 820 and 700 from buy orders (better price too). Rest of orders are waiting in order books and may be fulfilled during trading. Thats how fixing works. Provides best price for custommers while opening trades. Not random how its now.

4270  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Your Rocket.run Experiences... on: March 27, 2019, 09:28:28 AM

What a 10,000 customer hit for the launch of Rocket.run this is crazy number!! I also try my luck and join this giveaway goodluck for all participant.


Just go to their BTT topic (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5116550.msg50321394#msg50321394) and you will know why they gain so many customers that fast. They are there all the time answering every question and listening to their customers:

High fees? Decreased in 1 day

I'm the one who first addressed the high withdrawal fee yesterday and the rocket.run team didn't hesitate for a moment and changed it as soon as possible, great job to you guys! I hope more great things will happen to your platform.
4271  Economy / Speculation / Re: What will happen when the stock market crashes? on: March 27, 2019, 08:48:38 AM
There are 2 scenarios.
1- during market crash investors very often move their investment from high risk to low risk (stocks to gold). In that scenario bitcoin will drop due to its high risk asset.
2- bitcoin was made during market crash for all of those pissed off at the present monetary system. Perhaps during next market crash their feeling will be renewed and will see pump.

We need to remember that we are already dumped. There is not much space for further price falling due to lack of weak hands. Last news about delisting bitcoin futures from CBOE did not move the price.


I would not call bitcoin gold yet.
4272  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Your Rocket.run Experiences... on: March 27, 2019, 08:36:49 AM
More than 10 000 customers currently. They even launch a give away to celebrate that:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5124774.msg50321667#msg50321667

I've tested it only with faucets but I've managed to boost them x100 to test withdrawals. It was on my wallet in the blink of an eye.

And their withdrawal fees. I've didn't see that low ever.
4273  Economy / Economics / Re: Why exchanges constantly expose you to the risk of losing your capital. on: March 27, 2019, 08:30:17 AM
Just the way how exchanges opens trades is random and unhealthy for customers.

Or you think that an exchange that is open for business will restrict numbers of orders so as to have empathy on customers? I don't think they will do that, they will allow customers to express their selves on their decision in making orders. That is my understanding on this.

How much will exchange lose by implementing price fixing during coin listing? Volume of first minute of trading was equal to 6000 BTC. I bet that all trades with more than x2 price of 10 min average (2x 700 sat), that would not be fulfilled was less than 1000 btc. Transaction fee with BNB discount is equal to 0.075 % for buyer and same for seller so we have 0.15%. We have 1.5 BTC. Is that really that much for binance compared with evident give a f... about customers?

Those 1000 btc is even too much. In my opinion with price fixing listing would look more professional and would bring more investors. Also, traders seeing price change during fixing would move their orders to be fulfilled.

Prices may varies with the market demands and also its market volume. It is usually happen that after listing a certain coins will definitely turn down as many will easily sell their coins in low price which it is dragging the price to the bottom.
I also experience like this and it making me to loss my funds at 50% but I do believe isn't the end of my crypto life and still have chances to recover those losses before.

It's not about that. Celer (25.03.2019 binance listing) ICO price was close to 160 sat. Binance opens trades with 3000 sat price because at that price they finalized first trade by finalizing them order by order...
It's not about supply and demand. Its pure random. Read my post:

You know how its done now?
...
4274  Local / Polski / Re: Ranking zaufania Trust - jak działa? Czym jest DT i jak nim zostać. on: March 26, 2019, 06:28:07 PM
Sens jest taki, byś Ty widział poprawnie trust wszystkich innych. Jeżeli np. mnie ktoś oszuka i ja go negatywnie ocenię, to ty nie zobaczysz tej oceny i prawdopodobnie też dasz się oszukać. Jak dodasz mnie, to już zobaczysz go na czerwono i nie wykonasz transakcji. Chodzi o to, by jak najbardziej rozbudować swoją trust listę, by widzieć wszystkie przekręty innych użytkowników a jednocześnie nie mieć na liście byle kogo, by uniknąć opinii oszustów.

Jeśli nie wykonujesz żadnych czynności wymagających zaufania na BTT (kupno, sprzedaż, wymiana) i sam nie chcesz zostać DT1, to swoją listę trust możesz zostawić pustą, bo do niczego ci nie służy.
4275  Local / Polski / Re: Ranking zaufania Trust - jak działa? Czym jest DT i jak nim zostać. on: March 26, 2019, 04:53:24 PM

Chcę tylko dodać, że pobawiłem się trochę ustawieniami wczoraj i kiedy dodałem @TytanowyJanusz zamiast @Cryptovigi to mój trust spadł na 9 a gdy zamiast @Investaco to nawet na 7.

Bo mnie i tak masz w swoim drzewku czy mnie dodasz czy nie, bo jestem zaufanym cryptovigiego, a masz ustawione Trust depth na 2 wiec licza się dla ciebie również oceny zaufanych ludzi twoich zauchanych ludzi. Wiec jak dodawałeś mnie zamiast cryptovigiego to defakto jedyne co robiłeś to usuwałeś cryptovigiego. Czemu na 9? hmm musiałbym zobaczyć dokładnie jak wtedy wyglądało drzewko to może bym coś wymyślił. Dodanie mnie zamiast investaco natomiast powoduje spadek na 7 prawidłowo. Bo jego ocena waży za 5 według excela z mojego posta, a dodając mnie jak już mówiłem nic nie zyskujesz, bo i tak tam jestem.

Najgorzej było gdy chciałem dodać @Bitcryptex zamiast @Cryptovigi to mój trust spadł na 6 czy nawe 4 nie jestem dokładnie pewien ale różnica była duża.
Bitcryptex nie ocenił cię jeszcze, więc dodanie go do listy trust nie zwiększa twojego trust natomiast usuniecie Cryptovigiego usuwa jego ocenę oraz moją (bo masz mnie w drzewku tylko jako zaufanego cryptovigiego). Czemu aż tak srogo spadło to nie wiem Smiley

Warto dodać, że to ocena, jaką tylko ty widzisz. Normalni ludzie, którzy nie grzebali w soim drzewku trust widzą wciąż 0: -0 / +0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=131333;dt
4276  Local / Alternatywne kryptowaluty / Re: Spekulacja na newsach alt/btc on: March 26, 2019, 04:15:53 PM
Wszystko w sumie w wątku na bieżąco. Trzymam poniższe:

Elf - zapakowany czekam na dalsze wzrosty. Zakupy średnio po 3700 stat - obecnie 4316
Mainnet obiecali w Q1. Ostatnie parę dni zostało a jedyne co wiemy to:
Hello, the exact date of the MainNet launch will be announced through the official channels soon, please stay tuned with us on Twitter (https://twitter.com/aelfblockchain) or @aelfnews.

Waves - tu brak newsów poza aidropem vestock tokena ale na to raczej ceny nie trzyma. technicznie wygląda ciekawie.

ENG - Zebrałem w okolicach 9500 sat pod mainnet w Q1. A czytam obecnie i się okazuje, że w Q1 będzie testnet. Nie wiem, czy ja wcześniej źle zrozumiałem ale na telegramie widzę podobne zamieszanie. Cena puchnie to sobie jeszcze potrzymam. obecnie 12000 sat.
QLC - Zebrałem w okolicach 800 sat. Mainnet 31.03 więc za chwile będzie pewnie dump.
LTC - tego nie mam ale zastanawiam się. Troszkę już jest wysoko ale ma czas i miejsce na kolejne wzrosty (https://www.litecoinblockhalf.com/)
IOTX - koło 200 sat brane. Jutro ma być Mainnet Rehearsal  i pewnie podadzą konkretną datę mainnetu. https://medium.com/iotex/mainnet-rehearsal-begins-on-march-27-93cd0e6ff7a7

Tyle. Obecnie ciężko widzę zakupy. Niczego nie jestem pewien z tych newsów i nic przy obecnych wycenach nie mogę polecić. Wszystko porusza się bardzo nerwowo.  Widzieliście pompę EVX? W pewnym momencie wybiło 300%. Najśmieszniejsze jest to, że obrót wynosi 46 000 btc a marketcap wynosi 7000 btc (przed pompą 2500 btc). Czyli statystycznie w ciągu 1 doby każdy token jaki istnieje zmienił właściciela 6.5 razy. Śmierdzi to na kilometr.

edit 28.03.2019:
Iotex :"The public Mainnet launch date will be announced in the coming week. Based on today’s successful Mainnet Rehearsal kickoff, we are confident that the Mainnet will be launched to the public in the next 2–3 weeks."
4277  Local / Polski / Re: Ranking zaufania Trust - jak działa? Czym jest DT i jak nim zostać. on: March 26, 2019, 11:17:02 AM

Zacznijmy od prostego. Ostatnia liczba (+5) bo masz 5 pozytywnych opinii od ludzi, których masz na swoim trust list.

Kalkulowany współczynnik wychodzi mi 14. Algorytm wygląda prosto, ale błąd mogę popełniać w ilości misięcy od oceny.

score += min(10, round_up(months since rating))

Zaokrąglij w górę ilość miesięcy. Czyli jak dostałeś ocenę wczoraj, to algorytm traktuje to jako pełen miesiąc i przyjmuje wartość 1? Jeśli tak i nie pomyliłem się z dalszymi pozycjami, to coś tu nie pasuje.
Jeśli natomiast pierwszy miesiąc musi był pełen by się liczył, to wtedy wychodzi idealnie 11, bo pierwsze 3 oceny wejdą dopiero za kilka dni. Chyba, że gdzieś indziej popełniam błąd. Dowiemy się, jak na początku kwietnia twój trust wzrośnie
4278  Economy / Gambling / Re: 🚀✨[Rocket.Run] THERE WAS NO SUCH GAME, UNTIL NOW. JOIN THE THRILL. ✨🚀 on: March 26, 2019, 10:39:08 AM
0.0001BTC withdrawal fee on BTC. That's close to miners reward. That's crazy. Professional exchanges has 5-20 times bigger withdrawal fee.
"We value the voice of our users with priority." That's what we appreciate. Great job guys.
How long will that last?
4279  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: what technology does Binance and Bitmex use to trigger trades so fast on: March 26, 2019, 10:30:33 AM
The lightening fast trades in binance and bitmex look amazing. What technology makes them so super fast.

Binance or bitmex speed is nothing compared to forex speed. And forex is based on technology from a dozen years before. So its not something new and amazing to see. Its strange to see that other exchanges can't handle traffic even now when we are in bear market.
4280  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Play poker to train trading on: March 26, 2019, 10:15:42 AM
That's the best approach you can have imo. People here like to say that in gambling positive outcome is never guaranteed, but in fact it is never guaranteed in trading either even if you are the most experienced trader in the world. Success comes to those who realize that they can lose at any moment regardless of their knowledge of the situation, and thus they never risk big amounts, and if they lose they are not bankrupt because of that, they can continue their activity and if they are good at it there are good chances of being successful in the long run.
Agreed. thats the point of the whole topic and thats the attitude you can learn much faster in Poker than in trading and its usefull in whole life. Be ready for a punch no matter how sure of winning you are.
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