He should be blacklisted as a hardware day trader, he had NO intention of completing and was looking for another buyer to pawn them off immediately afterwards. I don't believe he had any funds, or access to funds to complete without an immediate sale and I was forced to cock block to prevent this atrocious behaviour. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=191149.0;allI had the full intention but was not given the means to pay immediately. WinVery should be blacklisted for this comment, and for bidding for something he had no funds to cover. It's pretty obvious that he bid knowing that he could run up the price later. The problem was he was an ass about it. Boycott his gambling site too. Screw him.
I bid with the intention to immediately pay. Are you joking? So pay now and don't take silly excuses that makes you look ridiculous. |
|
|
|
I'm a whale. What do I do next?  Sing! My voice instructor actually visited the hotel last weekend, but we did not have opportunity to practice. She bought some bitcoins though  Well done then! |
|
|
|
Qué manden foto  :D (es broma) |
|
|
|
I'm a whale. What do I do next? Sing! |
|
|
|
If the first generated coins move at some point... There will be an interesting reaction. I'd foresee a crash - but who knows?
It would be an opportunity. 1.5 Million coins on the market would put more coins into circulation. Considering how constrained the money supply already is, it would only help. That does not make any sense. We could run the world on 1 bitcoin. I agree it would be an opportunity... for those around Nakamoto group. I think many see the fact that the first coins never moved as an incredible demonstration of faith in the future of BTC. If those coins move, that faith could be shaken (or not, just speculating) I also like to entertain the idea that it could be a demonstration of insanity. Somebody that has not moved a SINGLE COIN from 2009 till today could also be very capable of dumping all the coins at once. He (or them) would be rich anyway, and nobody can wait to be rich forever. I'm not saying I believe any of the above - just speculating for fun, anyhow I find incredibly intriguing the fact that those coins NEVER moved. |
|
|
|
Are there official rules for auctions in this thread? I didnt found a sticky about this.
Anyway... bidding via pm corrupts the whole purpose of this subforum. The bids placed in thread are binding, they cant be edited. A bid via pm doesnt exist. The auctioner could claim there are higher bids and no bidder could prove. This way shill bidding would become possible. Plus no other bidded can react on an offer placed by pm, because he dont know that its there.
In my opinion the playing field was set and cant be changed afterwards because someone thinks he found a trick to outbid every other bidder without risk of being outbid.
Maybe mods should say something about.
+10000000 |
|
|
|
That should be avoided AT ALL COSTS, otherwise the auctions become a joke. Bidders have to honor their bids, and auctioneers have to honor the winners (I've seen a couple of auctions where the winner did not get the goods because the OP finally sold the goods by PM after the auction was over).
Im not sure why friedcat took out the rule for now but its a risk for sure. The last thing you said sounds horrible. Was this person moved to scam accusations at least? Don't think so, but I consider it appropriate. Just check one example: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=182343.0 |
|
|
|
And BTW: I always knew you are heavily invested in BTC. You like to play the "contrarian indicator": if you are wrong, you get rich; if you are right... Well, you are right  You're just hedging in some sort of psychologically twisted way |
|
|
|
|
Proudhon, you are too intelligent to get depressed over a crash. BTC is very prone to bubbles and crashes, as all commodity-like assets - this is even more true when the market is so ridiculously tiny. At the end, a crash is just an opportunity to invest in BTC, I really don't see the point in being depressed about them. There's still a long run before BTC definitely fails or wins.
Bitcoin is an exceptional idea, it empowers people, it gives freedom, it endangers the position of the filthiest scumbags on heart (financial corporations) - just work to strengthen BTC's economy and forget about the exchange rate and speculation.
|
|
|
|
I don't believe you when you say you will be ok with losing all that capital in bitcoin if bitcoin tomorrow goes to say $30.
I think you are saying untrue things to yourself in order to comfort yourself: 'no need to worry, these are only unrealized gains I stand to lose'.
I can guarantee you are mistaken. A practical example: I was very excited during the last bubble burst, I woke up at 4AM just to be awake when Gox reopened trading, as I wanted to buy as many BTC as possible with the fiat I could afford to loose in that moment. I had bids all the way down from $90 to $30, and one of the big ones at $42... I was really pissed I did not hit it, but anyhow I manage to buy quite a few BTC at an average price of $70, which is much more expensive than my average buying price for the majority of my holdings - but still felt "cheap", as I increased my stash in a way that satisfied me. I did not sell a single BTC during the crash, even if I watched it from the very beginning and i really believed we would be going down to $30 - call me stupid, but it was not worth the hassle for me to take out my paper wallets. I just didn't want to see my BTC converting to fiat, even if it was to buy more BTC later - I did not want to take that gamble because I preferred to not gamble my BTC. Honestly, I won't be pissed off by a long term bear market, and a decline to $30 or below. In fact, that idea amuses and thrilles me - it would be an excellent opportunity to work on real BTC economy, strengthening the infrastructure (WE NEED MORE EXCHANGES!!) and the products and services offered... While it would be also a great opportunity to increase your BTC holdings, and to spend them in useful things, not dirty fiat. I'm quite radical, with all things in life - my position may seem awkward to you, but I guarantee is legit. And of course this position is possible only because I gambled fiat that I could afford to loose, and I'm willing to take my gamble to the very end - I want to see where we stand at in 20 years. Doubling my fiat capital... Fivefold it.... Honestly, that is not important in my book. And if it was important, I still think that buying as cheap as possible with something you can afford to loose and then just holding long term is much wiser, because you will then have cold heart and you won't make silly mistakes driven by fear or greed. But, for me freedom is much more important, and money can buy just a little tiny fraction of that. Interesting. Thank you for sharing that. Part of me also wants to think and act like you. I believe your approach is the way to get rich. But what keeps me from doing it is that I can't stand the idea of seeing all these profits maybe vanish one day. Then all would have been for nothing. Honestly: "getting rich" is not my goal, but I agree that mine is not a bad approach for it. Just increase your BTC holdings with the fiat you can afford to loose, forget about the exchange rate, work on BTC real economy, never exchange BTC for fiat, and we will see where we are at in 10/20 years. The most important thing: strong hands and cold heart, fear and greed are useless IMO. And if BTC goes to 0, it won't be for nothing: it was work you did for an exceptional idea that is here to stay (its name may be Bitcoin or Bitcoin3.0, who cares), because this protocol has everything that makes technology exceptional: it gives freedom and power to the people. |
|
|
|
Payment sent. PS: The blacklisting clause is removed by friedcat for this round. WinVery.com has retracted his bid (for 2 blades), and they are up for the next in line (Caesium) He should be blacklisted as a hardware day trader, he had NO intention of completing and was looking for another buyer to pawn them off immediately afterwards. I don't believe he had any funds, or access to funds to complete without an immediate sale and I was forced to cock block to prevent this atrocious behaviour. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=191149.0;allWell, that would be up to friedcat I guess. But dropping out of the bids after you've won is quite bad I agree.. That should be avoided AT ALL COSTS, otherwise the auctions become a joke. Bidders have to honor their bids, and auctioneers have to honor the winners (I've seen a couple of auctions where the winner did not get the goods because the OP finally sold the goods by PM after the auction was over). |
|
|
|
bad news: at least two more weeks(or one more diff adjustment if you prefer), you heard it here first.  Source pls |
|
|
|
I think you are making a false reasoning.
Unrealized gains is not true. Those gains are realized. They are yours, and are now part of your total capital, which has increased considerably.
Right now you are risking 50% of your total capital to bitcoin. It does not matter how much you risked in the past to get here.
Please don't put words in my mouth that I did not say. I never said btc is not risky. To the contrary.
Well, I don't agree with you. I believe in BTC not because of his growth potential in terms of exchange rate, but because I believe it empowers people, it gives them freedom, is a "f**k off" to a filthy system run by financial corporations. Exchanging what i believe it's the REAL thing (BTC) for fiat money feels like a loss in my book. I prefer to slowly spend BTC in goods and services. You think on your "capital" in terms of fiat money, multiplying the BTC you hold by the exchange rate with USD; I think on my "capital" as X BTC and X fiat, and I don't really give a sh*t about the exchange. That said, I'm not allocating more fiat that I can afford to loose to BTC, because unfortunately fiat is what I need to feed my family, at least ATM - and BTC is still risky. But I'm not going to get rid of something that has the power to change the world and empower individuals (BTC) to exchange it for fiat, because I really don't think in those BTC in fiat terms (hope I made some sense). I don't believe you when you say you will be ok with losing all that capital in bitcoin if bitcoin tomorrow goes to say $30. I think you are saying untrue things to yourself in order to comfort yourself: 'no need to worry, these are only unrealized gains I stand to lose'. I can guarantee you are mistaken. A practical example: I was very excited during the last bubble burst, I woke up at 4AM just to be awake when Gox reopened trading, as I wanted to buy as many BTC as possible with the fiat I could afford to loose in that moment. I had bids all the way down from $90 to $30, and one of the big ones at $42... I was really pissed I did not hit it, but anyhow I manage to buy quite a few BTC at an average price of $70, which is much more expensive than my average buying price for the majority of my holdings - but still felt "cheap", as I increased my stash in a way that satisfied me. I did not sell a single BTC during the crash, even if I watched it from the very beginning and i really believed we would be going down to $30 - call me stupid, but it was not worth the hassle for me to take out my paper wallets. I just didn't want to see my BTC converting to fiat, even if it was to buy more BTC later - I did not want to take that gamble because I preferred to not gamble my BTC. Honestly, I won't be pissed off by a long term bear market, and a decline to $30 or below. In fact, that idea amuses and thrilles me - it would be an excellent opportunity to work on real BTC economy, strengthening the infrastructure (WE NEED MORE EXCHANGES!!) and the products and services offered... While it would be also a great opportunity to increase your BTC holdings, and to spend them in useful things, not dirty fiat. I'm quite radical, with all things in life - my position may seem awkward to you, but I guarantee is legit. And of course this position is possible only because I gambled fiat that I could afford to loose, and I'm willing to take my gamble to the very end - I want to see where we stand at in 20 years. Doubling my fiat capital... Fivefold it.... Honestly, that is not important in my book. And if it was important, I still think that buying as cheap as possible with something you can afford to loose and then just holding long term is much wiser, because you will then have cold heart and you won't make silly mistakes driven by fear or greed. But, for me freedom is much more important, and money can buy just a little tiny fraction of that. |
|
|
|
|
If the first generated coins move at some point... There will be an interesting reaction. I'd foresee a crash - but who knows?
|
|
|
|
Rampion, So first you spell me a lesson of risk like I'm a teenager while I I'm iam 15% invested in bitcoin and then you proceed in revealing that you are invested for 50% but that you are not risking much.  What pipe are you smoking? I'm smoking a very good pipe, that's a fact. What I'm saying is that I gambled 10% of my savings, and now that 10% tenfold in Fiat terms... But I really don't count on that unrealized gains, I did not enter BTC expecting to increase my fiat holdings, I entered BTC for the long haul and because I prefer BTC over fiat. I can afford to loose that gains because I never realized them, and I can also afford to loose the initial 10% gamble. What i wouldn't do is to deny btc is risky, and thus I would never allocate a % of my fiat, hard earned savings, that would get me nervous or worried if I was about to loose them. And sorry for my sloppy English I think you are making a false reasoning. Unrealized gains is not true. Those gains are realized. They are yours, and are now part of your total capital, which has increased considerably. Right now you are risking 50% of your total capital to bitcoin. It does not matter how much you risked in the past to get here. Please don't put words in my mouth that I did not say. I never said btc is not risky. To the contrary. Well, I don't agree with you. I believe in BTC not because of his growth potential in terms of exchange rate, but because I believe it empowers people, it gives them freedom, is a "f**k off" to a filthy system run by financial corporations. Exchanging what i believe it's the REAL thing (BTC) for fiat money feels like a loss in my book. I prefer to slowly spend BTC in goods and services. You think on your "capital" in terms of fiat money, multiplying the BTC you hold by the exchange rate with USD; I think on my "capital" as X BTC and X fiat, and I don't really give a sh*t about the exchange. That said, I'm not allocating more fiat that I can afford to loose to BTC, because unfortunately fiat is what I need to feed my family, at least ATM - and BTC is still risky. But I'm not going to get rid of something that has the power to change the world and empower individuals (BTC) to exchange it for fiat, because I really don't think in those BTC in fiat terms (hope I made some sense). |
|
|
|
|
TL;DR
Do we have an order number os this is another PR joke?
|
|
|
|
Rampion, So first you spell me a lesson of risk like I'm a teenager while I I'm iam 15% invested in bitcoin and then you proceed in revealing that you are invested for 50% but that you are not risking much. What pipe are you smoking? I'm smoking a very good pipe, that's a fact. What I'm saying is that I gambled 10% of my savings, and now that 10% tenfold in Fiat terms... But I really don't count on that unrealized gains, I did not enter BTC expecting to increase my fiat holdings, I entered BTC for the long haul and because I prefer BTC over fiat. I can afford to loose that gains because I never realized them, and I can also afford to loose the initial 10% gamble. What i wouldn't do is to deny btc is risky, and thus I would never allocate a % of my fiat, hard earned savings, that would get me nervous or worried if I was about to loose them. And sorry for my sloppy English |
|
|
|
Sounds like a more robust strategy to me. I'd feel strange reducing my exposure to bitcoin to just 13% in the heights of a roaring bull market though. One thing I consider you haven't mentioned (and maybe you don't care) is I try to avoid taking a nominal cash profit and creating a taxable event while we're still in the early years for bitcoin. If this thing is as great as we think it is we should be able to do the Warren Buffett move and just hold forever. Eventually we can take out fiat loans for living expenses at a lower interest rate than the expected rate of return of the cryptocash holdings thereby paying no taxes and not reducing our earnings as it appreciates.
Thanks for your confirmation! 13% is indeed still high exposure at the heights of a roaring bull market, but indeed, bitcoin can then still do jumps no one expects, never to come back to even those heights (thought chance is very low for that, but if it happens and I only have say 5%, I'm pretty fucked, basically losing most of my coins and an opportunity to become very rich). I came to that number by revising my target exposure. I have that now at 25%. I want to half it when risk is very high, and double it when risk is very low, so that means going down to 13% min, and going up to 50% maximum. OK, that's the opposite of what I meant actually but depending on your life situation might be the right perspective for you. Personally I put about 10% of my assets in at $7 on average and have let it ride. I'll let you do the math but clearly some folks here would have taken some back off the table. If I were good at short-term trades I'd try more of that stuff but I still remember the time I sold at $4.36 to lock in a quick $.17 profit. Obviously never got that coin back Oh, I'm sorry, I misread you. Well, congratulations on your amazing investment! If you feel comfortable with the exposure you have now (75% btc ? ), then all is good. Risk tolerance is a personal thing. Holding on to them and not selling any has up until now been the best strategy so the empirical evidence is that you did the most profitable thing possible. I admire you. Despite of what I said, I realize that with the current exchange rate my "exposition" to BTC is more than 50%. I initially bought BTC at $15ish, investing what I could afford to loose (aprox. 10% of my savings), and then I've been engaging in BTC businesses and investments (I'm more a "real economy" guy) that increased my BTC holdings without trading. So we could say that now +50% of my savings are BTC... But I don't consider or feel that as "exposure". I gambled 10% of my savings because I believed in BTC, while acknowledging it being risky (that's why only 10%): but I gambled that 10% for good, for the long haul, not willing to convert that money to fiat anytime soon... In fact I wouldn't mind to NEVER convert it back to fiat. I will hold those coins like a mofo, and I'm also buying some more with spare cash when there is a real opportunity (flash crashes, big dip)... But mostly I'm investing those BTC in BTC related ventures (mining, securities, etc.) which ATM is working quite well, being BTC economy so reactive and thrilling. At the end of the day I don't feel "50% of my wealth is in BTC". If it goes to 0, I will feel I just lost 10% of the savings I had a year ago, and who cares... If it goes to +$1,000, well, that's OK... Then I may be selling a little for fiat, but I'm not so sure about it. |
|
|
|
Man, don't let greed to take over, and don't fool yourself. BTC has high rewards because it's very risky. That's why allocating 50% of your resources might not be wise. Sure, it depends on your situation, for some risking 80% of their resources could be worth it (because they're young and they can make back that money working quite easily, or because they don't have a family to look after), but for the average joe an exposure of 40%/50% to BTC is not wise.
You take for granted BTC will tenfold again - sure, we all agree is probable, but you must acknowledge it's also very possible it goes to 0.
And you may just be happier working on some real economy unrelated to pure speculation, while holding a BTC stash you're confident with, not constantly checking for the exchange rate
I agree that allocating 50% of your capital to bitcoin looks very risky. However, on average I plan to invest only 25%. I will only invest 50% if bitcoin were to ever go to serious undervaluation again. For example, after the crash in 2011 the price ($3) was considerably lower than the 200 day moving average ($9), so you can then say that the price is depressed/low already. The downward risk from there is low which means it's safer. So kicking up my allocation to 50% bitcoin at that point may seem risky, but is actually equally risky than having today 15% of my capital in bitcoin, when the price ($150) is still a lot above the 200 day moving average ($38), because the downward risk is much higher today. Basically, the risk I take in bitcoin remains the same over time and summarized it's only 25% of my capital that I risk in bitcoin, eventhough I might sometimes have 50% in bitcoin. You seem to forget that a) Bitcoin is still experimental software and b) even if the protocol is robust, at this moment it's very simple to crash the exchange rate for good (because of its still fragile infrastructure and tin penetration) Your view about "-50% of the 200 day MA" being safe because undervalued is something that works very well in stocks, but Bitcoin is not a stock. The risk in Bitcoin is always high, at least for the moment. There is only one exchange that controls 80% of the market, that exchange could shut down at any moment and take the price to <$1. Or their bank accounts could be freeze because a couple of customers don't see their wires credited on their accounts and file police reports. Or because an FBI investigation about money laundry leads to Gox... Or whatever. Those are just examples, and I could go forever with other many, just to point out how risky is Bitcoin at this point. Making a long story short: Bitcoin is the kind of investment where allocating more than you can afford to loose is just plain stupid. Can you afford to loose 50% of your resources? The answer might be yes, I don't discuss that - as I said earlier there are many circumstances that coud make it worthwhile to gamble 50% of your wealth on BTC. Hell, when I was 24 years old I would not have minded to gamble EVERYTHING I had on BTC, because the potential rewards are so high, and everything I had was so little... Again, don't fool yourself: risk is never "low" in BTC. If you fool yourself thinking risk is "low", you will allocate something you cannot afford to loose and that will cloud your judgment at some point. If you allocated too much, if something bad happens (like Gox being shut down, or the exchange rate sinking to really low levels because of a sudden fork, or because kiddie porn in the block chain goes suddenly to mainstream media, whatever) you won't be so cold and you will probably make bad calls. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
