ABSTRACT- The network conditions are reflected by block size that in turn causes fee is high or low. The median value of daily block size in October is above 1.23 MB.
- In 2020 so far, the median of daily block size is 1.27 MB
- October is the month with transaction size are stable around 1.27 MB (see box plot with vertical line, box, whisker and raw results). In median, the latest 3 months (August - October) have same value at 1.27 MB
- In differences (%) between median of fee (in specific day to all days in 2020), people are paying more expensive fees in October: around 508% (in satoshis) or 20224% (in USD).
- The medians (all days in 2020) of fee per kB are 32467.2 satoshi or 0.1 USD
- In the last 3 months, more people accept higher fees that reflects by narrower gaps between differences of max - median and p75 - median (see plot)
- In median of daily max fee: people tend to accept 10+ USD for each kB in October. However, October is not the highest month, it is a third one instead. The 2 highest months are May and August. Reminder is outliers in October (latest days) are much higher than outliers in May or August.
- In median of daily daily median fee: people tend to accept 5 + USD for each kB in October and it is the third highest month, after May and August. The same data interpretation for outliers.
Time series plotsBlock size in MB (it is after I calculated medians for daily block size). Summary for variables: sizeMB
by categories of: month
month | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020m1 | 31.00 1.13 0.17 1.21 1.05 1.22 0.51 1.26
2020m2 | 29.00 1.23 0.04 1.24 1.21 1.26 1.13 1.28
2020m3 | 31.00 1.21 0.10 1.25 1.22 1.27 0.85 1.33
2020m4 | 30.00 1.19 0.12 1.23 1.17 1.26 0.79 1.30
2020m5 | 31.00 1.29 0.03 1.28 1.27 1.31 1.22 1.36
2020m6 | 30.00 1.23 0.12 1.27 1.24 1.29 0.78 1.33
2020m7 | 31.00 1.27 0.04 1.28 1.27 1.30 1.12 1.35
2020m8 | 31.00 1.29 0.02 1.29 1.27 1.31 1.25 1.34
2020m9 | 30.00 1.28 0.04 1.29 1.27 1.31 1.15 1.39
2020m10 | 29.00 1.29 0.02 1.29 1.28 1.30 1.23 1.35
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 303.00 1.24 0.10 1.27 1.23 1.29 0.51 1.39
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Block size (for all blocks in 2020). I don't calculate daily median for this one. Summary for variables: size
by categories of: m
m | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020m1 | 4737.00 974062.11 440761.55 1.19e+06 637357.00 1.29e+06 244.00 2.21e+06
2020m2 | 4154.00 1.10e+06 381206.27 1.24e+06 1.05e+06 1.32e+06 293.00 2.28e+06
2020m3 | 4255.00 1.10e+06 384647.89 1.24e+06 1.06e+06 1.32e+06 244.00 2.14e+06
2020m4 | 4513.00 1.08e+06 390384.36 1.22e+06 1.05e+06 1.30e+06 244.00 2.42e+06
2020m5 | 4192.00 1.27e+06 225990.99 1.28e+06 1.20e+06 1.36e+06 280.00 2.07e+06
2020m6 | 4549.00 1.15e+06 373225.21 1.26e+06 1.13e+06 1.34e+06 244.00 2.20e+06
2020m7 | 4589.00 1.23e+06 285914.06 1.28e+06 1.20e+06 1.35e+06 244.00 2.29e+06
2020m8 | 4521.00 1.28e+06 230549.31 1.29e+06 1.21e+06 1.36e+06 217.00 2.33e+06
2020m9 | 4531.00 1.24e+06 292441.24 1.29e+06 1.20e+06 1.36e+06 200.00 2.19e+06
2020m10 | 3977.00 1.25e+06 266874.59 1.29e+06 1.21e+06 1.36e+06 213.00 2.33e+06
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 44018.00 1.16e+06 349851.87 1.26e+06 1.15e+06 1.34e+06 200.00 2.42e+06
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In October 2020 Data was imported on 29 October 2020 (ends at block #654708), not recently but the plot shows time points at which mempool was clear sometimes in October. Whenever the p25 value of daily block size falls back to below 1 MB, mempool has chances to get clearer. I made a typo in plot title: The period is 01 Oct 2020 - 29 Oct 2020. All-time and 2020 plots |
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It is partially true, witcher_sense. 
Greed and lack of knowledge then experience cause all of such. - Bitcoin total supply is fixed and I believe most of bitcoin investors know about that.
- It is interesting to see many people are misled by news that "Bitcoin is scarce (because of its finite supply)". Such news mostly are seeded repeatedly when whales manipulate the market.
- Lack of knowledge and experience force people to join fee race. Many people called them as bitcoin investors but don't know what is confirmation, what is txhash and I don't feel strange if those people give their bitcoin to exchanges to broadcast and charge high fees.
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It is a bump! (for the coming weekend)I hope that newbies who don't understand how bitcoin transactions are confirmed and how mempool changes will take this bull run of bitcoin price and transaction fee to learn. It is a valuable live course and it does not happen too regularly. Read OP and a few posts in this thread as well as the quoted post, then observe mempool to see how it goes next few days or even up to 2 weeks. In the last 30 days, there are 3 periods in which mempool size exceeds 50 MB (first in early days of October, second around 21 October at 53 MB -- the purple arrow, and the third is now with 62 MB in mempool. In percent, there is an increase of 17% in mempool size compares to what it was on 21 October 2020. After that day, mempool was dipped and almost clear. I am not over pessimistic but nothing is too bad like a catastrophe here and now.  - Institutional and weekend effects
- A bit stability of bitcoin next few days
- We can have better fee rate. It is my expectation but if it happens, people should move or consolidate their bitcoin when fee is cheaper before mid of November.
https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,30d |
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How about altcoin price actions in this amazing run of bitcoin? |
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In the last 30 days, there are 3 periods in which mempool size exceeds 50 MB (first in early days of October, second around 21 October at 53 MB -- the purple arrow, and the third is now with 62 MB in mempool. In percent, there is an increase of 17% in mempool size compares to what it was on 21 October 2020. After that day, mempool was dipped and almost clear. I am not over pessimistic but nothing is too bad like a catastrophe here and now. - Institutional and weekend effects
- A bit stability of bitcoin next few days
- We can have better fee rate. It is my expectation but if it happens, people should move or consolidate their bitcoin when fee is cheaper before mid of November.
https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,30d |
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That transaction was made on 2020-10-26 15:19 UTC. It was about exactly 4 days ago (as of writing, it is 18:48 UTC 30 Oct 2020). - Replace-by-fee was not chosen by the sender so you can get vague idea that sender did know what (s)he was doing.
- Fee rate: 69 satoshi/byte.
With the 1 week window, you can check more details: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,1wThat transaction would be an instant one with first confirmation in next 1 or 2 blocks. The screenshot (at 15:11 UTC) is not totally correct because around 15:18 UTC, there was less than 1 MB in mempool from the tip to 70 satoshi/ byte fee rate. I don't know when the sender sign that transaction but it seems to be a very quickly confirmed transaction and it was made when the total size of mempool is about 10 MB. It was done before the transaction fee storm. |
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See? Just pay 3 satoshis per byte and wait a day, rather than a hundred+ for half a day...
You always can get cheaper transaction fees if you can wait for 6 hours. Instant transactions with first confirmation within next 1 or 2 blocks eat up your capital because fee rates to use are always at tip of mempool (never be cheap). |
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With different capital in hands, people need to have different investment or trading strategies to get profits or to exit at price they want (take profit or cut loss, it depends). - Volume is most important factor when you invest or trade. If a coin or token has very low volume that much lower than the amount you plan to invest or trade with it, you will get troubles for your orders. Your orders might not be filled up at price you want or won't be filled up at all.
- It is easy to exit with $100 for most of coins or tokens on the market.
- It is challenging to exit with $10000 (more than 0.7 BTC) if you set your order at a single price. It is not a matter with bitcoin but for most of altcoins, you will get troubles.
- Your orders look big enough to be considered as supports or resistances by others
- You can see profit on screen but if you can not exit, you won't get profit in hands
Solutions: - Make your orders sparesly at different price will help them are easier to be filled.
- Make good allocation for your capital to a few coins/ tokens for your capital part for altcoins or tokens, not bitcoin.
- Diversification helps you
- Reduce risks from scam coins/ tokens and their unexpected dumps or scam exits.
- Might be easier to exit anytime you want.
- Bitcoin should account for 70% to 80% of your portfolio.
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What do you think about the fees and the perspectives?
- Price of bitcoin will become more stable (maintains around $13000 or dump first then has a new stable price range). People will not be crazy accept high fee because their demands to buy or take profits will become less.
- Next difficulty adjustment will help to deal with latest drop in total hashrates.
- Mempool will be better (smaller size) and fee will become cheaper
To compare transaction fees over periods, I think it is better if you use fees in satoshi or BTC, not in USD. 2 transactions with same transaction size, same fee rate will have different fees in USD. |
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I've checked two charts for 26 October and I think that the difference may be caused by timezone. One chart tells that average fee was 3.44$ that day, another one tells 5.74$. - Timezones make differences because there are geographical locations from which more bitcoin transactions will made. More transaction counts do cause higher transaction fee.
- Days of week make difference too. Weekends usually give you better fee rate (cheaper). Do you know that in last weekend, there are few times mempool was dipped to 1 satoshi/(v)byte before all things go up?
- Another reason is average and median are different statistics. Average can be seriously affected by outliers (red circles in the box plot) but median can not. You can call median as true average statistics of a sample.
More details is here Bitcoin transaction fees (feer per KB - in USD) with median, outliers, plotsThere were people who spent $153 per kb for his/ her transaction. Crazy sender! About weekend and institutional effects (I gonna give you updates and improve that thread later). Weekend to come so please consolidate your coins and / or move your funds to save fees. If you don't have need to move your coins, consolidate them instead (at 1 satoshi/byte). Look at below statistics for latest update and compare median transaction fees (in satoshis/ kB) on Sunday and Saturday to Friday: - Friday: 18471
- Saturday: 14258 (22.8% cheaper)
- Sunday: 12701 (31.2% cheaper)
Transaction fee is decided by transaction size and fee rate. - Fee rate: Senders can set any fee rate they want -- of course, must avoid 0 satoshi/(v)byte.
- Transaction size: is decided by input and output (types and numbers).
If you make 2 transactions with same type and same fee rate, just different in the amount of bitcoin (and value in USD), 2 transactions will have same transaction fee.
Reminders- Consolidate your small inputs (I learned it from LoyceV). If you do it on last weekend, today you can make transaction with cheaper fees (even you have to make 2 transactions, 1 on last weekend and 1 today)
- Observe mempool and plan your transactions (days of week and hourframe)
- Sign your transaction with opt-in Replace-by-Fee option (just in case) when fee rate is low
- Be your own bank with non-custodial wallet. If you use custodial wallet or store your bitcoin on exchanges, casinos you have accept funny situations
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Great thread but I would like to give OP and readers another thread on Locktime from LoyceV. I read LoyceV's thread in 2019 but never mind to think of when I will use it. I am not a bitcoin whale so at the moment I have not yet imagined when I will use Locktime. At least now the forum has 2 threads on Locktime (Paper wallet and Electrum wallet). Both 2 threads are in my spreadsheet. Using Locktime for inheritance planning, backups or giftsMastering bitcoin 1st edition, chapter 5TRANSACTION LOCKTIME
Locktime defines the earliest time that a transaction can be added to the blockchain. It is set to zero in most transactions to indicate immediate execution. If locktime is nonzero and below 500 million, it is interpreted as a block height, meaning the transaction is not included in the blockchain prior to the specified block height. If it is above 500 million, it is interpreted as a Unix Epoch timestamp (seconds since Jan-1-1970) and the transaction is not included in the blockchain prior to the specified time. The use of locktime is equivalent to postdating a paper check.
I don't know I can not find it in the chapter 6 of its 2nd version |
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Thank you sir for permission to translate your thread. But before that I apologized because I just finished today and I made it. This is all because of Covid-19, my job is a bit tougher. The following is the result of my translation in the Indonesian Sub Forum [Edukasi][Diskusi]- Daftar Halaman Tersembunyi dan DeskripsiOnce again, thank you very much, this is very useful for me and maybe in a local forum. Thanks for your time to translate it. I did not remember I have conversation with you in PM.  I always reply to any people who contact me in PM for acceptance to do translations of my threads "You are free, always to do so. Just remember to leave links (for respect and for your account safety -- plagiarism causes perma-ban) Please correct this typo in your translation too. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Halaman Tersembunyi/ fitur | | | Deskripsi penggunaan | | | | | | PGB Kunci Publik | | | PGB Kunci Publik | | |
Is it just a typo? Because as far as I know the correct one is PGP (Pretty Good Privacy) Public Key.
It is a typo and you make me surprised that I did neither notice the typo nor many guests of this thread. I therefore much thankful for your typo finding. After month, it has been corrected. |
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"Never be correct", even if both assets were literally moving together for months? While they've moved the opposite ways recently, it still doesn't change the fact that they were somewhat correlated. This isn't even an opinion. It's just data.
"All models are wrong" according to George Box. There are many contributors (variables) to a model. You have to make decisions to keep this variable while exclude another variable. No matter the final models you like the most are, all of them are wrong at somewhat levels and at some points of time. Model A can be right today but it will be wrong later. The unbelievable weak down in March of 2020 is a lively example for this. There is no model can control all those things. The amazing thing is if you can build a good model from which you can get some points to use. It is not perfect but you can use with your awareness of uncertainty. Models are built from past conditions, data and with the assumption that future conditions won't change much. In reality, life is different and it happens in uncontrollable way. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_models_are_wrong |
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Using the 30 days MA will always give you "terrible" results, the number of blocks found in 30 days is a drop in the ocean as far as the 210,000 blocks are concerned, so getting 7 years halving estimate is pretty normal, getting 2 years is also nothing out of the ordinary, can you do another analysis from the last halving to the latest block? one more thing, you should use block time, ignore the confirmation thing, I remember you made a topic about empty blocks? you could use the same data from LoyceV.
Thank you. It is my mistake from carelessness with the likely wrong term from bitinfocharts.com. From my mistake, I looked back and see they use confirmation time ~ block time. This discussion sheds a light for me that the confirmation time shows how generous or parsimonious or relevant people do their bitcoin transactions over time. There are some factors behind (knowledge, practice, skills, urgent needs, etc.) but somewhat can give us some ideas. |
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I would like to know what Mitchell has to say about the template.
You can find it in OP. Template is only one part of previous posts.
Local rules:
- The only allowed posts are about updates to the OP or available spots for campaigns.
- Posts about available spots for campaigns should be removed when they become obsolete.
- Discussion about campaigns are strictly forbidden (unless it's really relevant, which in 99% of the cases, it isn't).
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That's the confirmation time for a transaction, it is not really correlated with the time between blocks although it can be influenced by it, just look at how that thing is looking for the last year, if it were like that we would be seeing the next halving in 8 years as for the last month we've had an average confirmation time of around 20 minutes. This is the block time, showing the average time between blocks: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-confirmationtime.html#6mI am sorry for my mistake. I did not carefully notice it. Confirmation time is affected by fee rate each transaction is set up with. Firstly with Raw value option, I see the fluctuation around 10 mins and not check more. Thanks for your correction. I knew the link you provided (thanks, of course). You post makes me wonder why bitinfocharts.com uses the term confirmationtime for block time. This somewhat causes my mistake (I did not do double check). 
It is a function of how full the mempool is, not how fast or slow the block time is. If I drop 500 MB of 1 sat/vbyte transaction in the the mempool right now, then even if we found a block every 5 minutes for the rest of the day the median confirmation time is going to be pushed up towards an hour. There is no direct correlation.
Yes. It is not a linear correlation. In fact, hashrates rise significantly or falls dramatically over different period. Total blocks founds with short interval and total blocks found with long interval balance one another. It is what why the median value of block time is around 10 minutes. Miners (their greediness, over-mining activities or capitulations) can result in shortly impacts but in the long run, they can not. Looking at the graph, there is also no way the average block time could have increased from 10 minutes to 17 minutes over the course of 3 months without a massive drop in hashrate. That's approximately 10-12 difficulty readjustments. For the difficulty to readjust 10-12 times, but the block time to continue to increase, there would have had to have been a huge and consistent loss of hashrate over the last 3 months, when in reality it has increased from ~120 EH/s to ~140 EH/s.
Thank you for the detailed explanation from which I learned something too. Again, the chart is taken from third party and its validity is unknown. I simply took it for these estimations. Price of bitcoin has its impacts as well. Lots of assumptions, lots of if. I am thankful to the difficulty adjustment that help the network works and halving intervals are almost stable. |
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As for bitcoin specifically, it's a typical coin flip. If you'd ask me a month ago, I would say that bitcoin would continue to go up with the S&P500(because of government bailouts) but lately both assets have been going on their separate ways so we're back to extremely unpredictable territory.
All of such plots, correlations are for reference and for what happened, for the past. Forecasts are made by using past data and never be correct but among many useless or incorrect models, there are some good models that we can use. Those possible lag effects are the decision made by different companies to layoff their employees. It might have been a hard time for them for sure, but that's the reality of what happened during the pandemic.
Delayed or lag effects here are from many factors: - Delay of news released why we all knew the pandemic is there. WHO delayed to make a public announcement that it is a pandemic. - Delay of data collection on unemployment rates till the monthly reports. Monthly reports are released on the first Friday of each calendar month. - Delay of companies to reduce their human resources, etc. - Delay of news effects on different local markets. Where is the geographical location the news is released initially? And how long till the news show its biggest effects globally? About Bitcoin and gold, over history and in 2020 only, they are positively correlated with 7 days delay (not instantly or intraday). I can say so (with confirmation from data). I think that these graphs may well correlate for this reason: It is no secret to anyone that the pandemic in the first place deals a very tangible blow to the US economy. The economy begins to suffer and, accordingly, large masses of people begin to seriously think about what to do with their savings so that they are not subject to inflation, and naturally some of these people turn their eyes towards bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. And thus, it can have a rather tangible effect on the price of bitcoin.
It is just partially true I think. Because the real momentum behind the iceberg is not from the pandemic, it happened and accumulated months before the pandemic announcement on March. About people, there are many conservative people that you will almost never be able to convince them about bank system bailouts. They are more than ones you can convince and they are not real fuel for the rise of bitcoin, IMO. |
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I came back to WO today (with post, not simply read). Enjoy WO gang! |
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Halving happens for each 210 000 blocks but how long the interval between 2 consecutive halving days is a myth. No one can tell you exactly. It depends on fluctuations or increases or decreases of block confirmation time within the all batch of 210 000 blocks. The chart shows you how the median confirmation time (block time) change over years. The plot is for 30-days MA. Let's estimate the interval between 2 halvings based on 30-days MA of block time. In fact, I don't believe we will have to wait up to next 7 years (since May 2020) to see next halving. The plot shows regularly corrections of block time. - 10 minutes: 3.995 years
- 15 minutes: 5.993 years
- 17.76 minutes (current 30-days MA of block time): 7.096 years
Raw estimations . di 210000*10/60/24/365
3.9954338
. di 210000*15/60/24/365
5.9931507
. di 210000*17.76/60/24/365
7.0958904
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