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Its so funny for me when about 90% people (and gouvermnet) don't see anything bad in lottery buying lottery ticket to win big money where there is 1:10 000 000 probability of winning and you can win 2 000 000 times your bet what gives us "house" edge equal to 80% where on average casino game house edge is close to 3% and everyone is saying that gambling is bad - a way to lose money. Lottery is even worse.
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When I read that it was necessary to be a professional to make profits in the market (what I agree with), I remembered an experiment carried out once before by Professor Prinston who compared the results on the stock exchange achieved by experts and monkeys throwing drafts. I do not know if you've heard this story? " Give a monkey enough darts and they’ll beat the market. So says a draft article by Research Affiliates highlighting the simulated results of 100 monkeys throwing darts at the stock pages in a newspaper. The average monkey outperformed the index by an average of 1.7 percent per year since 1964. That’s a lot of bananas!
What is all this monkey business? It started in 1973 when Princeton University professor Burton Malkiel claimed in his bestselling book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, that “A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper's financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts.”
“Malkiel was wrong,” stated Rob Arnott, CEO of Research Affiliates, while speaking at the IMN Global Indexing and ETFs conference earlier this month. “The monkeys have done a much better job than both the experts and the stock market.”
In their yet-to-be-published article, the company randomly selected 100 portfolios containing 30 stocks from a 1,000 stock universe. They repeated this processes every year, from 1964 to 2010, and tracked the results. The process replicated 100 monkeys throwing darts at the stock pages each year. Amazingly, on average, 98 of the 100 monkey portfolios beat the 1,000 stock capitalization weighted stock universe each year." source and whole article you can find here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/I wonder what the results would look like when a similar experiment like the stock market and monkeys would be done with the cryptocurrency market. Maybe it would turn out that trading in cryptocurrencies is more like not even for poker, but simple gambling than we think? Interesting experiment. I've heard about it when I was learning TA. It throws different light on all of those who are claiming that trading (in contrast to poker) is based only on strategy, technique and experience and there is no luck involved. Of course it is. Without luck, you can do best analysis and still be hit by a whale. I was speaking with trader with 30 years experience a lot. Calm and always ready for a punch. That was his attitude. When i came excited and said that i've earned 30% in short term on stocks he only ask - Did you sold and withdraw? No.. You earn nothing than. Even the best analysis won't protect you against the black Swan. |
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I'm not talking about first listing after ico. Well that too but I'm mostly talking about any listing. Even if coins was listed on other exchange before. Just the way how exchanges opens trades is random and unhealthy for customers.
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Woha!!! @Tytanowy Janusz jesteś jak król Midas który wszystko zamieniał w złoto!!!!... z tą różnicą że Ty wszystko zamieniasz w merity  Właśnie zobaczyłem, że dostałeś merity nawet za posta w którym pytasz czy można wrzucać reflinki... Chylę czoła Też byłem zaskoczony. Tak wysoka osobistość doceniła post-zapytanie. Liczyłem bardziej na odpowiedź  ... puki co wypowiadali się użytkownicy według swojej wiedzy bazującej na regulaminie. Czyli nic, czego byśmy nie wiedzieli. Nie do końca rozumiem zasady. Za trzymanie USDT/trx płacą w usdt/trx 1.12%? W jakiej skali (roku, dnia, miesiąca) i kto to wspiera, na jakich portfelach trzeba trzymać? Widzę, że zaczyna sie cała akcja pod koniec kwietnia. Jeśli to prawda, to można spodziewać się pompy na tronie niedługo, bo giełdy będą musiały się określać, czy wspierają airdrop czy nie, co o aidropie poinformuje masy. |
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Nie. Pierwsze słyszę. Korzystałeś z tego? https://www.litecoinblockhalf.com/A co o tym sądzicie? Będzie pompka na kursie ltc/btc ? Od grudnia kurs równiutko rośnie bez większych pomp i korekt. Od dołka już +100% ale do halveningu jeszcze kupa czasu na wzrosty. |
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Świetnie memy panowie Dorzucam 2 kolejne reprezentujące 2 osobne typy inwestorów:   |
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Its not limiting. Its letting them buy coin at opening with accurate price instead of random price.
Have you ever heard of "Pump and Dump"? On newly listed coin? If you manage to hear it then that's the answer. Its not pump and dump. Its finalizing orders order by order instead of with fixed price set by traders during fixing (like on stock market). You know how its done now? 1- Exchange opens setting orders 2- first user create sell order at x100 just for fun 3- second user create market buy order 4- third user create sell order at x1.2 for small profit 5 - fourth user created market buy order (0.01 sec after guy from point 3) 6- ...... n - n user created sell order at 0.8 of last price on other exchange There are n-1 orders on market. And they hanging for moment that exchange will open trades. Then exchange opens trading and is finalizing orders order by order. Means that guy from point 3 will buy with 100x price (because that the only wall that is on market that his buy order can hit in) and guy who made exactly same order type 0.01 sec after will buy at x1.2 price (because currently that's the lowest price available). That's ok for you? Or that's the stupidest way to open trades during listing and its done like that only to scam users. |
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get some money from fees then they will definetely get it.
They would get fees even with fixing. All trades in first moment after opening will be done at price set during fixing (like on stock market) not with random price as its now. Also crypto exchanges are working 24/7 so it is a bit different from your example.
I'm talking about coins listing not everyday trading on listed coin. I guess that how the market goes and why would exchanges limit their users? Limiting traders is not essential to exchanges. AFAIK there are no exchanges that limit their traders.
Its not limiting. Its letting them buy coin at opening with accurate price instead of random price. |
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Almost every listing looks like that:  Those spikes on first candle in most cases happens in first 1 min - 5 min. Does exchanges really don't know how to prevent their users from buying coins 100 times higher by market buy? If chart is that high means that someone bought that high and someone sold that high. That's crazy and so easy to prevent. None need to invent wheel. All they need to do is go and take a look how every day starts on regular assets on stock markets. To prevent that situation every day starts with 30 - 120 min fixing (up to exchange). (f.e. 120 min is for New York Stock Exchange) Fixing (source: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091113/auction-method-how-nyse-stock-prices-are-set.asp):
The Opening Auction
While the NYSE’s official market opening time is 9:30 a.m. EST, orders to buy and sell securities can be entered as early as 7:30 a.m. In particular, the two types of orders that are accepted before the market officially opens are Market on Open (MOO) and Limit on Open (LOO). MOO orders seek to purchase shares at the current market price at the time the market opens. LOO orders seek to purchase a specific number of shares at a specific price when the market opens. If the requested price is not met, the trade does not take place.
The first data stream of the new trading day includes a reference price for each security. This price generally matches the previous night’s closing price. The data stream also includes data regarding the current imbalance between buy and sell orders and prices. By publishing this data, NYSE gives traders the opportunity to adjust their trades in order to match up buy and sell orders.
Data is published every five minutes until 9:00 a.m. From 9:00 a.m. until 9:20 a.m., it is published at one-minute intervals. For the final ten minutes prior to the market open, the data is published every 15 seconds. Beginning at 9:28, the likely opening price for each security is added to the published date stream. Orders placed between 9:28 a.m. and 9:35 a.m. cannot be canceled.
So wheel is already invested. Why exchanges do not apply that? The only explanation is that they are letting their users to buy coins 100x higher for their own profit. Perhaps they are manipulating with order of orders that way that their coins are being sold on the top of that 1 min candle with 10-100x profit. Avoid creating orders in first 5 min of any listing. You will mostly loss majority of them. |
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Forget about martingale. It does not work. I've tested it in my simulation that I've coded. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5112216.msg49832531#msg49832531This strategy is based on underestimating propability of killing strikes. In fact that propability is quite high. In 200 bets its: 6 in a row - 96,5% 7 in a row - 80% 8 in a row - 54% 9 in a row - 32% |
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Price will grow when whales will be ready. Not when good news will appear. We are no longer in bull market where good news pumps x2. We are in bear market where average investor is to scared that its last year of bitcoin. No matter if with or without LN. Slow down. Firstly we need to break 4k resistance and huge sell walls in 5200-6000 range. Good news is that price didn't drop after CBOE delisting bitcoin futures news meas that there are no panic sellers anymore. Weak hands left their bitcoins after breaking 6k support. https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2019/03/cboe-delists-bitcoin-good-or-bad-news/ |
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There are different kind of trading and different time frame to make profits as well right,I am looking for monthly basis profits with 10-20% profits for a cycle.
I always see numbers like these and it makes me wonder: Did anyone really manage to have a consistent 10-20% monthly profit (month after month)? And I have serious doubts it is possible. To quickly elaborate: 10% monthly profit cumulatively means about 200% profit a year. You start with 1 BTC and at the end of the year you have 2 BTC 20% monthly profit cumulatively means about 800% profit a year. You start with 1 BTC and at the end of the year you have 8 BTC These are huge returns that I think even the best traders in the world couldn't make. Sure people claim they can do it, but somehow I doubt. I think you can make it once, two times, you can even be lucky to make it five or six times, but to have such huge returns on a consistent basis is impossible. More realistically, you can have a consistent profit of 10-30% a year, but not that amount month after month long term. Yea. I agree with you. None is getting that profit constantly. If someone is claiming he's doing that he is lying or he is trading since 1 month and he was lucky enough to earn that much in single month. From 1 btc in 5 years you will get 56 000 btc and 3 000 000 btc after 10 years. Why only 3 mil? After few years of experience you should increase profit if 20% is possible for newbie. 50% per year is quite good and is achievable constantly in crypto and 20% in stocks. |
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The poker and trading also same have risk especially today the movement of price value in the coin market cap is very volatile while buying altcoin for trading. Playing poker the risk is if the player not setting up greed control possible to lose huge mone.
I think there is no lesson that you can take in poker for trading besides knowing that both have a high risk too. what are the important lessons of poker that you can implement in trading? both are different you know, strategies, which determine of win, its different. If you would spend at least 5 min to read OP you will know what lesson you can take from poker and apply into trading. If you would read even only last sentence you would know that too. Professional trader and poker player will say the same thing: -You lose the most when you are sure that you will win
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Payment has arrived, withdrew and received in my wallet successfully.
Thanks Rocket.run and Hhampuz for the first payment.
Same here. Thanks Hhampuz and Rocket.run that is an honour for me to take part in this campaign. |
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... Warto wciąż wykonywać airdropy od wielkich firm, które cię nie oszukają - takie jak giełdy. Oraz od tokenów/coinów już dostępnych na giełdach. Co wy na to, byśmy takimi "pewniakami" dzielili się tutaj, lub w oddzielnym temacie? W regulaminie tematu zawarłbym, że można postować linki afiliacyjne. Bo jeśli ktoś znajduje i się dzieli pewniakiem, to mu się należy Nie wiem tylko jak zapobiec spamowi do losowych airdropów przez linki afiliacyjne. Sam pomysł mi się podoba, ale dwie uwagi - koniecznie musiałbyś założyć go w opcji self-moderate i na bieżąco wyrzucać wpisy spamerów, przed którymi raczej się nie ochronimy... Natomiast odnośnie linków afiliacyjnych - to raczej nie przejdzie bo to złamanie zasad forum (i chyba zapis w pierwszym poście niewiele tutaj pomoże): ...
4. No referral code (ref link) spam. [1]
....
oraz: ...
7. Linki wstawiamy bez referrali, z refami tylko na PW i jeśli odbiorca nie ma nic przeciwko temu.
...
więc co najwyżej na priva ale tylko dla tych, którzy wyrażą na to chęć. Gdzieś czytałem, że jak nie są to gołe linki tylko dostarczają jakąs wartość to mogą być. Założyłem osobny temat w sekcji meta. Zobaczymy co powiedzą. Mi wydaje się to być dobrym i pomocnym tematem, a reflinki będą jego atutem. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5124231.msg50299628#msg50299628 |
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Thanks for advice from both of you. you are keeping it clean but normally it leads to abuse by reflink-spammers.
I'll keep it clean but even if i won't handle the only person that will suffer is me myself because quality posts will be linked by me in main thread. So average users that come to my thread to take part in good airdrops will go from my links directly to quality posts with informations (and reflinks from users who posted them and in my opinion deserve to put them due to delivering quality news for community) skipping all spam. |
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Hello. I would like to ask you if my idea is legal due to bitcointalk rules. I would like to start topic in local board that will consist list of airdrops. Those would be 100% sure payout aidrops because i would list there only those that are organised by huge trustful companies (like binance and its last celar 20$ airdrop) or by existing on CMC coins (like bread or byteball airdrop). So it won't be spam of ICO airdrops. I guess that there would be max 10 new links per year. Main thread won't consist any reflinks. Only description, reflink warning and link to user's posts. I know that 1 person won't find them all on time. That's why I would like BTT community to help me by posting in my thread as soon as they find new airdrop. Those posts will have to be written in specific form. Something like: how much to earn:
What's the name of coin and CMC link:
Airdrop duration:
difficulty (easy/medium/hard)
reflink:
And we get to the point that I'm not sure if its legal or not for me and for posters in my thread. I would like to encourage BTT community to share good airdrops as soon as possible like above by allowing them to put reflink. Of course all spam reflinks will be deleted by me and all reports that are not made like they should be. |
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Moja historia jest zbliżona. Zacząłem również od airdropów, ale byłem bardziej wytrwały. Zawaliłem grupami 2 telegramy, a na moim portfelu eth jest obecnie 60 tokenów o łaczej wartości 10$ Wszystko co miało wartość >5$ sprzedawałem od razu i z tego uzbierało się ok 100$ (nie licząc opisanych poniżej pewniaków *) + libra, która dala zarobić 200-300$ (zrobiona 2 kontami, bo jeszcze żonie podsyłałem co ciekawsze). Nie wiem jakie są limity na telegramie, ale wydaje mi się, że 500 grup. Równocześnie robiłem bounty. Skupiłem się jednak na twitterze, faceboku, linkedin, czasami napisałem coś na medium/steemicie. Poświęciłem więc bardziej dziesiątki godzin niż setki jak Ty, ale rezultat podobny. Shivom, który był moim pierwszym bounty wypłacił mi 200$ (które sprzedałem po roku za 10$ jeśli dobrze pamiętam). Jakbym podpiął sygnaturkę nawet z memberem byłoby to 1000$, ale wtedy jeszcze nawet nie wiedziałem co to jest. Jak zobaczyłem tą kasę to zacząłem dołączać do jak największej liczby kampanii- kto by tak nie zrobił - miesiąc pracy zajmującej 3 min dziennie za najsłabsze możliwe konta, które ledwo spełniały kryteria. W sumie zrobiłem z 30-40 bounty z których łącznie wyciągnąłem około 30$ - totalna strata czasu. A shivom był fartem nowicjusza, który opłaciłem zmarnowanym czasem na kolejnych kampaniach. Troszkę jak amator, który pójdzie do kasyna dla zabawy ze 100zł. Lepiej by je przegrał i wrócił do domu, bo jak wygra 1000, to przy następnej wizycie przegra 10 000 bo za bardzo uwierzy w siebie. Zniechęcony powoli odpuszczałem temat robiąc coraz mniej kampanii aż w końcu twitter oddał mi przysługę banując mi konto, co usprawiedliwiło mnie wewnętrznie przez całkowitym porzuceniem tematu. *Uważam jednak, że wciąż warto być w temacie i zerkać co nowego pojawia się na różnych grupach typu aidropallert. Zaledwie 2 tyg temu airdrop miał celer (ten co wchodzi jutro na binance) https://twitter.com/binance/status/1106555971290058752Za przetestowanie apki (5 min roboty) rzucili 20$ w cenie ICO. Należy jednak pamiętać, że ICO binance to nie jest zwykłe ICO i tu można założyć, że cena w poniedzialek będzie conajmniej x3 - x4. Tokeny już mam na koncie. Byteball (zwany obecnie OBYTE 141 CMC) rzucił mi ponad 20$ za podpięcie pod portfel steemita. Kasę trzymam dalej na portfelu, bo chłopaki teraz co tydzień losują 1 portfel na który przelewają 100 GB czyli 4 000$ i 211.11 GBB - których wartość ciężko określić. Wystarczy się dopisać do chętnych. Bread (157 CMC)za pobranie apki koło 30$ Warto wciąż wykonywać airdropy od wielkich firm, które cię nie oszukają - takie jak giełdy. Oraz od tokenów/coinów już dostępnych na giełdach. Co wy na to, byśmy takimi "pewniakami" dzielili się tutaj, lub w oddzielnym temacie? W regulaminie tematu zawarłbym, że można postować linki afiliacyjne. Bo jeśli ktoś znajduje i się dzieli pewniakiem, to mu się należy Nie wiem tylko jak zapobiec spamowi do losowych airdropów przez linki afiliacyjne. Edit: 25.03.2019 Celer udało się sprzedać po cenie ICO x4. Wiec z aidropa wpadło 80$. Warto pilnować airdropy. Temat otworze i będę moderował nawet bez reflinków. Mam tylko nadzieję, że nie będę jedynym postującym i szukającym newsów |
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