Technically speaking, you may be correct after all, but this is not what most of us would like to know. What we want to know is how low the price will go. I think you will agree that it is a big difference between the price finding a true bottom at 2.5k and at 0.5k. On the other hand, I don't agree that it doesn't mean anything. In fact, it means everything, and still more so with such a speculative asset as Bitcoin, as it is exactly these people who are in for money are driving the prices up (as well as down, for that matter)

Though for you personally, it may not mean anything, of course

Expecting results in 2 to 5 years is not what many are actually expecting

For most holders it would likely mean accepting that they lost their cryptocurrency investments. I don't mean that prices won't revert in 5 years (probably they will), but how much? As I see it, the only possible way for prices to return to 20k and beyond is another speculation boom ("bull run") but it basically means that a new, bigger wave of holders should arrive with fresh money, and that may actually take so many years

That's not a given

Obviously, for the majority of altcoins it was a one way ticket to the graveyard, so whether Bitcoin rises or falls, they are going to die anyway. But it is not only them as even top altcoins are unlikely to outperform Bitcoin long term. How come? If Bitcoin is set to rise in the future (which is not a given, either, just in case), most likely it will be due to its real value expanding (as opposed to purely speculative value). But in these circumstances we shouldn't really expect altcoins to rise as much as Bitcoin (let alone outperform it)

Absolutely agree with this

People should listen less to publicity whores and drama queens like John McAfee, Craig Wright and their likes, who obviously have their own agenda, while listen more to people like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, who don't make empty promises, who are clear and honest about their true intentions

For example, many of us are not quite happy with what Warren Buffett thinks and says about cryptocurrencies in general and Bitcoin in particular but in no case we can call him a liar or hypocrite. In other words, whenever you see or hear John McAfee mentioned, skip it and ignore it

I wouldn't advise anyone to do that thing

Dollar cost averaging, averaging down, lowering your entry point or anything to that tune is all about adding to a losing position, by whatever name. I don't know how long this bear market is going to last or how low the prices are going to plummet yet but I'm 100% certain that people who have been averaging down since the 20k levels are not quite happy with the results of their investment decision. So think twice before following advices from random dudes on the Internet like this one

Are you sure about that?

If I'm not mistaken, Satoshi's whitepaper is called something like "A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System". Cash is synonymous with currency (or money), while cash system as I see it refers to a payment system which makes use of this currency. Apart from that, creating a way of making quick and cheap transactions can be done via creating a currency in its own right (though not only that, of course). Anyway, if you come to disagree, you are welcome to explain your stance in greater detail

The halving won't help us much

If we are to continue slowly sliding down, it won't mend matters, if only temporarily due to hype. The inflow of new coins is already not great (relative to the total number of coins circulating) and halving is unlikely to have a strong impact on prices. Many folks were telling that Bitcoin can't drop below 6k as it would make mining unprofitable. But we already crashed 2 times and probably will crash lower. In this way, halving can be our hope indeed and perhaps even should be as the only thing worse than false hope is false hopelessness, but don't expect too much

It is a matter of time until people start selling again, and they will unless we see a surge in demand. When the price falls, people are indeed not inclined to sell at first. But when they get used to these lower prices (especially if there is no sign of recovery), they will start selling again as they need fiat for their daily expenses. After all, 3k is still a huge price compared to, for example, Bitcoin Cash which is worth some measly 120 dollars per coin (though I think that it is still highly overpriced)

That likely explains why we go down in steps

It cuts both ways

I mean we saw bull runs but we also experienced bear rushes too, and right now we are following one of those. As they say, once bitten twice shy. Apart from that, you can't actually say that the early adopters had taken really great risks. Yes, they had patience to wait (I refer to those who actually managed to wait that long, at least till 2017 tops), but their financial involvement in Bitcoin was not great as they received most of their stashes basically for free (e.g. via CPU or GPU mining)

Shares are not less volatile than crypto

And this is exactly what Warren Buffett himself says specifically about Berkshire Hathaway stock which plummeted 50.7 percent in less than half a year. Today I read a post by some dude around here who brought forth the very example of Berkshire Hathaway stock as something which can't possibly fall in value, and here you see Warren Buffett in person saying that Berkshire shares have suffered four "truly major dips". Can it really be more ironic than that?

But I don't disagree with this

In fact, I'm using margin trading (i.e. shorts) specifically to keep as little in my exchange account as possible, while still being able to ride short-term price movements. It is just a matter of time when an exchange gets hacked or something else as bad happens resulting in the loss of coins (like what happened at Quadriga). For the record, Bitfinex had already been hacked in the past, though it is still not clear whether it was a "genuine" hack or an inside job

But isn't that a valid assumption?

If Bitcoin is actually doing well as you say, why doesn't its price grow after all? Maybe, things are not as good as they seem to you? For example, you refer to an expansion in Lightning Network use but how do you gauge this expansion really? If you are you looking at the data from 1ml.com, 632 bitcoins can't make a dent in Bitcoin's total supply. We would need something to the tune of 100k bitcoins removed from the market to make a meaningful impact on Bitcoin's price (but that may take years)

Sounds big, what do you mean by this?

And why wasn't the market as generous at 20k levels, for example? Personally, I don't expect Bitcoin to crash a lot lower (if that was your point) but I can't say the same about Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum as it seems to me that their current price is too high for an altcoin (still over 100 for both, which should be around 50). So we may likely see a brutal shake-off in the next few months after all but not so much with Bitcoin as with overpriced altcoins like the ones I mentioned. Time to short both of the houses

It's a difference that makes the difference

You can't compare what we see today with the market in 2015. Technically, back then it was an entirely different market which you can't even remotely place against today's. The 200-320 dollar range you refer to (actually it was more like 150-400) would match the price swings in the range of 3k-5k nowadays. I'm strongly inclined to think that most traders would be head over heels happy to see such price action today. But we are nowhere near that

And it is not only that

Existentially, it just shows that you don't know what you are doing (or whoever is employing this approach in practice). Because if you did, you would be either waiting patiently till the price hit the bottom or shorted the downtrend with balls to the wall. If anything, it makes sense to sell first and then buy back into a lower price, and that would lower your entry point in a less risky manner as well (actually, in a much better manner)

To sum it up, if you can’t take a small loss, sooner or later you will have to take the mother of all losses. And averaging down will make your pain only worse

I can't possibly agree with this approach

And this is likely another lesson that everyone should learn. There is a time-tested and age-old trading wisdom which says to never add to a losing position, and this is exactly what averaging down amounts to. You do lower your breakeven point, that's true, but you do that in exchange for more exposure to a future price fall when it comes about. Now imagine the losses that people would have accumulated by now if they actually had been averaging down from the top at 20k. In short, it is a losing strategy, quite similar to martingale in gambling

I don't expect much of the next halving on its own

We should understand that while block reward is halved, i.e. the supply of new coins becomes half as much, the total supply is already large enough to make this halving not very relevant other than for hype and noise (i.e. for speculative purposes mostly). But if the cryptowinter is to end (that won't be because of halving), this event may still serve as a good trigger to kick off a new cycle

Okay, let me explain a few things

First of all, you should always remember that with margin trading you are basically playing against the "house". And the house in this case is the exchange where you margin trade. You may be playing against an exchange even when you are long with your own coins, but it is always the case with shorts. In practice, it means you should expect things which you normally wouldn't, for example, exchange forcefully liquidating your margin position on some completely arbitrary grounds (like an alleged glitch in the system)

Second, you should understand how the margin system is supposed to work, i.e. when you are likely to have your position liquidated, and here I mean real liquidation, not the one like described above (i.e. wrongful liquidation). If you don't know or understand how it works, you better stay away from margin trading on this exchange until you do. Otherwise, you risk losing your balance due to a technically legitimate margin call. And remember at all times that you are playing against the house with margin trading

I can't say that all altcoins are useless

For example, personally, I find Litecoin quite useful, even if for only "pump&dump shit". Kidding aside, if Bitcoin is to become something, it will most certainly have to do with a store of value. But a good store of value can't be a good means of payment at the same time as these things are mutually exclusive to a great degree. So we need an altcoin which would work as a means of payment with Bitcoin being a store of value. And this is where Litecoin fits in perfectly, without any kidding

Be careful what you wish for

As you just might get it finally. This "stability" is very deceptive. It is not the first time we see prices moving in a tight range (though it is definitely longer than usual), but it always ends in a powerful breakout. You may be sure you are not the only one who feels the same way as many traders are not happy with this market either. And to earn as before they have to narrow their trading ranges in such environment and add to their orders

It means that the range between major support and resistance levels is diminishing. At first it leads to price being sort of locked in between the narrowing walls, and this is what we actually see now. But ultimately, when the resistance or support is finally broken, there will a mighty price action either to the upside or downside as it always happens. And I don't think things are much different now (even though it may take longer than usual)