WHales are playing games with us at their will. Hobo whale adding and removing 10k wall, pushing price up and down whenever he feels like it. Absolutely perfect market to lose money in it if trading.
This is the thing. Whales are accumulating coins. Until they say, " I'm packed now, lets go to the moon"Hopefully we don't have to wait for this because I fear this could take a while. I know good news hasn't had an impact in awhile but I'm hoping we carry this momentum to some big news that spurs new adoption |
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Voted anytime.
Issuance of the NYDFS BitLicenses could've been an option
Thanks. What time should it happen? Well first period of comments ends this week. Should be followed by a second draft which I expect will require an additional 90 days of public feedback. Depending on how long it takes for second and final draft to be approved, my conservative guesstimate would be we are looking at March-April 2015. I'm crossing fingers for a quicker resolution though  |
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Voted anytime.
Issuance of the NYDFS BitLicenses could've been an option
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Ok, fair enough. Thanks for the link, this is actually interesting. I'm curious though if such miners will keep their faith and hold on to their coins with an iron fist even if the bear market continues into 2015. Time will tell, I guess. Edit: On second thought, if large parts of the mining industry are subventionized by VC like that... how low would the price be without such subventions that allow miners to keep their coins off the market?  Interesting question but you also need to consider the profit generated by sale of mining rigs. VC investment is only one component of the invested capital. If we speculate that many companies follow KNC's and BitFury's mining model, then it is likely that only a fraction of their VC money is required to keep running : Step 1. Design & produce a chip Step 2. Mine bitcoins with new chip Step 3. Sell new chip to clients Step. 4. Use profit from sale to fund development of a newer chip Rinse & Repeat. At present it appears that only the business of manufacturing chip & selling them is profitable to some entities. Therefore, for the biggest ones out there, using their chip to mine on a larger scale could seem like an extra curricular activity with limited effect on their short term bottom line and considerable upside on the long term |
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there is a fundamental misconception in your analysis that miners dump the coins they mine on exchanges, effectively putting pressure on the price.
[...]
First off, I never talked about coins being dumped on exchanges. Maybe you are mistaking me for someone else? Also, my assertion still stands that a continuously watered down supply side increases downward pressure on the price, and I see no use in arguing that. Maybe your position is that there is no intersection between the OTC market and exchanges, but I have no reason to believe that this is actually the case. Actually, one obvious counter-example I can spontaneously think of would be the user "loaded", who is participating both in the OTC market and on the exchanges. Second, I am doubtful that large industrial-scale mining operations engage in the speculation business on top of their main (mining) business. They most likely have massive regular expenses for employees, electricity, rent and of course for new hardware in order to stay competitive in the race for a large slice of the hash rate pie. I'd say this indicates that a certain amount of coins has to be sold in order to keep the operations running. And even if they are engaging in speculation - this just means that another failed attempt at a sustained rally will force them to sell a bunch of their held-back coins as soon as they realize that new buyers are not coming in to carry the rally further. So, that gives me one more reason why I suspect this current rally to fail spectacularly once the bulls run out of steam and momentum begins to decline. BitFury founder and CEO Valery Vavilov indicated that the new funding will allow the company to complete production of its 28nm ASIC chip without selling the reserve bitcoins it has mined from its three industrial-scale data centres. Vavilov told CoinDesk that it decided not to tap its bitcoin reserves as it remains bullish on the long-term value of bitcoin.
“We believe in the long-term perspective [the price of bitcoin] will grow and we decided to not to sell [our bitcoin] at such a low price,” Vavilov added. http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-raises-20-million-asic-development-mining-output/This is from the CEO of one of most important industrial scale mining operations. For most of them, the "massive regular expenses" are paid for by massive VC investements. Don't forget that these entities also sell mining rigs at massive profit. Money came easily to startup KnCMiner, which says it made $70 million in revenue in its first year of operations from selling bitcoin mining equipment.
This money is more than enough to cover for expenses. There was a miner convention no later than last week that kind of drove this point home : miners are some of the most bullish actors in the BTC scene. It is misguided to assume that they are selling most of their coins. I am not arguing your analysis of the market but I don't believe your "inflation" argument to be a valid concern |
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there is a fundamental misconception in your analysis that miners dump the coins they mine on exchanges, effectively putting pressure on the price.
in reality, there is a high probability that most of the mined coins, if sold, are sold in bulk to brokers OFF-exchange. there are numerous brokers out there offering to buy in bulk at a premium and considering privacy issues and exchange slippage it only makes sense for miners to get into supply agreements with them.
Close, but in reality miners sell at a discount to OTC resellers, in cash, to avoid taxes. This is true for many of the Chinese miners. Those OTC resellers turn around, and sell OTC at a premium to clients that want to avoid KYC compliance (no Coinbase, no exchanges). Agree, this is more likely. But considering we have seen some examples of advertised brokers actually buying at at premium, my guess is there is some kind of competition between brokers that effectively minimizes the discount charged to miners |
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With the leveling of the mining difficulty, inflation of the bitcoin money supply has fallen from 12% to 10% per annum. An instant 20% reduction in the new money supply has huge influence on tipping the equilibrium of the price.
Sure, good point. But I'd assume that rising prices will bring mining operations back in as the profitability of mining increases again, and inflation will pick up again. So I'm not sure if this will help a sustainable rally to develop. there is a fundamental misconception in your analysis that miners dump the coins they mine on exchanges, effectively putting pressure on the price. in reality, there is a high probability that most of the mined coins, if sold, are sold in bulk to brokers OFF-exchange. there are numerous brokers out there offering to buy in bulk at a premium and considering privacy issues and exchange slippage it only makes sense for miners to get into supply agreements with them. having said that, the exchange price is obviously impacted by this business because demand is satisfied elsewhere but this is not the same as selling pressure. furthermore, in a scenario where price rises, mining operations will not want to sell coins AT ALL. in a bull market, miners are much better off holding on to their coins. therefore, the suggested "inflation" is negligible if not irrelevant as most of the newly minted coins do not reach the market, on or off exchange. in fact, this is exactly what substains rallies : buyers that would otherwise purchase OTC have no other options but to turn to exchanges. |
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the other thing about Bitshares is that you have to assume btsx will gain and keep any value at all. why would it?
1. it isn't money
2. it has no network effect
3. do ppl really want to trade all these overlay assets on top of the blockchain? it could become quite costly depending on how high a price BTC attains and how high a tx fee might go.
4. if Bitcoin's destiny is to become a world reserve currency that supports and disciplines (maximum 10x leverage) the existing fiat system, there would never be a need for Bitshares.
For 1 and 2 people could have said the same thing about Bitcoin in the early days. Rome wasn't build in a day. 3. The transaction fees on Bitshares doesn't depend on the Bitcoin one. The DPOS system scale very well, cost of transaction will not be an issue. 4. These are all problems which are not solved by Bitcoin : - hedge and speculate without counterparty risk - earn an (rather high) interest rate without counterparty risk - diversify one wealth (you will be able to keep X% of you wealth in wheat with BitWheat, Y% in JPY with bitJPY, Z% in GOOG with bitGOOG, etc.) while being government-proof since the purchasing power remain in the custody of a blockchain. And if BitAssets are useful then BTSX will have value because you need BTSX to create BitAssets. RE: 1. What is the distribution model of BTSX? How limited is the supply? RE4. The problems are simply not YET solved by Bitcoin: -hedge and speculate without counterparty risk : platforms can be built on top of the bitcoin blockchain to that effect. recent example : http://www.hedgy.co/ multi-sig derivatives contract. - earn an interest rate without counterparty risk : Bitcoin's deflation is a form of interest - diversify one wealth : see above, evolution of the technology will allow for decentralized platform built on top of the blockchain to perform these functions without counterparty risks |
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Am I the only one here who considers the recent bullish sentiment to be irrational?
The bulls' main argument for a trend reversal seems to be the fact that, after falling ~$400 from this summer's highs, we have seen the first really significant bounce upwards. Honestly, I think that crashing really hard after a months long downtrend isn't exactly the best advertisement for potential new buyers, despite the bounce. And we urgently need those newcomers in order to absorb the constant downward pressure applied by newly mined coins.
Except newly minted coins are not sold on exchanges. |
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 not long to wait now, then upto $490 before consolidation to about $430, and then slow growth picking up pace over the next few months towards the next megabubble. Just how i see it at the moment. these types of intersections are so open to interpretation though. If you created the same model about a week ago, it would show that we fell below the cross and thus right now should be bearish. IMO long-term we are going up, but short-term its volatility until something happens to change that - either the coins distribute from big holders to dedicated smaller HODLers, or wall street gets involved and opens up bitcoin use to investors There will be some big movement in the next few hours. We will see approx $490 next week. The reason I am confident people will go long is because of the following factors: 1. MACD shows that there is momentum for a second phase of the uptrend 2. Every chart from 1 hour to 1 day shows quite clearly a reverse head an shoulders, indicating the downtrend since the ATH has finished. 3. It has followed the same pattern as the April 13 266 pump. using Fibonacci emphases this pattern repetition. 4. The April pump and consolidation took approx 3.5 months from start to finish (approx 4 x longer than Nov 13 pump and approx 4 times as large in BTC value. 5. The volume has been steadily increasing. so far history has repeated, so why should this be different? Im not saying it's mega pump time just yet, but I am saying the the slide has halted. The reason I say 490 is because the Trend line from the last 12 months is currently at that price, that's why i think we will bounce off it, consolidate at $430 and then go sideways and break that upper trend-line in Jan when it sits at about $430. From there steady growth gathering pace, before panic buying sets in again... and noobs start talking about the "S" curve again, and the cycle repeats. See you at $5750 in June 2015... all of this sounds good to me but I expect the Winks ETF to be approved before the end of the year which would certainly precipitate the run up |
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Money as a Ledger
without the need for physical tokens (gold) [or the need for trust].
Great post. I was never quite aware of this concept of money as memory until I stumbled upon Bitcoin. Needless to say it has radically changed my view on a lot of thing economic. Moreover, I think it needs to be emphasized more why it is that the bitcoins are so vital to this system : they are the only units trust-less units within this decentralized ledger. This all seems obvious to most of us yet so many still hang on to the idea of issuing an "asset-backed" unit that would be traded within this ledger. This is asinine and defeats the whole purpose of having a trustless ledger. |
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I think the reason why they are not popin up is because lately there has been nothing but negative news on bitcoin.
Why invest millions in a start-up and then have no customers. Like I said in my other thread, a lot of it was due to low volume these past fews months.
Exchanges only made money on trades, if there is no movement or volume. They can't make money.
I would say the reason they haven't appeared is the absence of a clear regulatory framework. ... Yup. This is why the biggest exchanges are currently not US-located. SecondMarket's exchange will probably launch with or shortly after BitLicense goes into effect, and itBit is waiting for that too before opening up to retail customers. I assume Kraken and others are also in wait-mode. I agree that a solid, clearly regulated, US-exchange infrastructure is long-term bullish for price. But it may take a while. One of the positives is the potential to create liquid hedging products that businesses can use to hedge their exchange rate risk when accepting or using bitcoin. If those tools existed, bitcoin may more readily penetrate deeper into supply chains, especially for international customers. But it takes a while. yup, that Lawsky is cockblocking all of us right now |
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I think the reason why they are not popin up is because lately there has been nothing but negative news on bitcoin.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3OWzZSr8Ncfred & brian from coinbase putting to rest some obvious myth in this AMA merchant processing volume is marginal and sell pressure on the price from these operations quasi-inexistent they actually mention they RARELY, if ever, have to dump coins on exchange from merchant processing and most often the coins are bought by coinbase users (bullish)
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 it is 275 |
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Dow -415, Bitcoin holding beautifully.
When does the QE effect inflect? The Fed can't come out with QE4 without signaling an extreme lack of confidence in markets. At some point, that signaling will overwhelm any technical boost in asset prices that the liquidity would otherwise bring (ie, banks will just sit on the funds instead of bidding up the stock market). First they need to show that end of the current QE wreaks havoc, then a new QE can be introduced. |
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4 green daily candles, followed by 1 red, repeat until moon
I think we will see some more green, but no moon. Range of $100-$800 for 2015. |
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If we break through the previous ATH, there's no telling how high this can go. The media would blow this up, but this time there is a foundation to work on. 80,000+ merchants, more apps, more understanding and places like circle making it super easy to buy in.
THIS. The crazy thing is, our BTC will actually be usable now. Before it was like 1BTC was $1K (or whatever)...cool, but I don't want to trade out for cash. Imagine if BTC gets to $5k in a short period and you can get a gaming laptop for 0.3BTC. Or you can get the latest smartphone for 0.15BTC. That kind of stuff right there blows my mind. Especially when mining 0.5BTC per day. Rock on. I don't need all those gadgets. If you are so shortsighted as to spend your BTC on trivial stuff when it gets to 5k then you're doing it wrong. |
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Retire  |
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No, you're wrong. Bitcoin's price, in relation to USD, has fallen by two thirds this year, while the supply has increased by ~9%. Basic supply/demand equilibrium suggests that the demand has ... decreased  2014 is not going to help you much longer. Use it at your dishonest convenience while you still can  I simply state facts, clear and verifiable, and you sperge out at me. Why the butthurt, bro? I don't see facts, I see convenient dishonesty. I don't see clarity I see a troll hiding behind disingenuous arguments. The only clear and verifiable fact we can interpret from you posting is that you are a mental case, or more commonly labeled, a psychopath. |
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