Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Brewins]

384


I was expecting a hit to the 400's before the weekend

[JayJuanGee]

Hmm

Looks like a pretty good mate for Shroomie... though he has NOT been in the dating scene recently, but s/he / it is showing interest.

[brg444]

there is a fundamental misconception in your analysis that miners dump the coins they mine on exchanges, effectively putting pressure on the price.

in reality, there is a high probability that most of the mined coins, if sold, are sold in bulk to brokers OFF-exchange. there are numerous brokers out there offering to buy in bulk at a premium and considering privacy issues and exchange slippage it only makes sense for miners to get into supply agreements with them.

Close, but in reality miners sell at a discount to OTC resellers, in cash, to avoid taxes.  This is true for many of the Chinese miners.  

Those OTC resellers turn around, and sell OTC at a premium to clients that want to avoid KYC compliance (no Coinbase, no exchanges).

Agree, this is more likely.

But considering we have seen some examples of advertised brokers actually buying at at premium, my guess is there is some kind of competition between brokers that effectively minimizes the discount charged to miners

[ShroomsKit]

The weak hands have been shaken.

Is this miners continuously dumping, stolen coins from yesteryear, combo or something else?

The good ol weak hands myth.
Weak hands have been shaken 150 times now since 1200.

[ShroomsKit]

384


I was expecting a hit to the 400's before the weekend

Why would the dumpers suddenly stop dumping now? Nothing changed.

[vipgelsi]

384


I was expecting a hit to the 400's before the weekend

Why would the dumpers suddenly stop dumping now? Nothing changed.

Maybe they want the price to move up and dump higher later on.

[Brewins]

384


I was expecting a hit to the 400's before the weekend

Why would the dumpers suddenly stop dumping now? Nothing changed.

we still above friday's price

[janos666]

I am beginning to think the Bitcoin market in its current shape would be much better off without these relatively high volume zero-fee Chinase exchanges and their washtrades.
They are either clinically insane or do nothing else but bare manipulations in a way which forces the average price into a monotone downward trend (let alone that it might would be in a similar shape on it's own anyway, so it really doesn't need this).

[JayJuanGee]

384


I was expecting a hit to the 400's before the weekend

Why would the dumpers suddenly stop dumping now? Nothing changed.

we still above friday's price

Given that overall the last few weeks, including weekends had produced pretty decent volume.  This weekend  has been pretty low volume - accordingly, I had been expecting a boost in volume and an attempt to test the downward resistance - maybe push towards lower $370s or maybe a little lower.. yet if that will result in a price upsurge, who knows?

[Walsoraj]

https://twitter.com/wsculley

Recent tweets = gonna be huge and bullish as fuck. Don't cut your loose. Next 24 are crit. CCMF!

 

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

https://twitter.com/wsculley

Recent tweets = gonna be huge and bullish as fuck. Don't cut your loose. Next 24 are crit. CCMF!

 

Twatter=exactly nothing. Geez dude

[Walsoraj]

https://twitter.com/wsculley

Recent tweets = gonna be huge and bullish as fuck. Don't cut your loose. Next 24 are crit. CCMF!

 

Twatter=exactly nothing. Geez dude

Depends on whether you think a certain protocol might save the day.

[touhonoob]

https://i.imgur.com/rrMTZBF.jpg

[Omikifuse]

What do you mean with your pic?

Is he digging the Bitcoin's grave?

[Walsoraj]

It is definitely not a pic suggesting that someone is dumping something.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

It is definitely not a pic suggesting that someone is dumping something.

I heard rumours about a massive Ripple dump...

 

[colour]

there is a fundamental misconception in your analysis that miners dump the coins they mine on exchanges, effectively putting pressure on the price.

[...]

First off, I never talked about coins being dumped on exchanges. Maybe you are mistaking me for someone else? Also, my assertion still stands that a continuously watered down supply side increases downward pressure on the price, and I see no use in arguing that. Maybe your position is that there is no intersection between the OTC market and exchanges, but I have no reason to believe that this is actually the case. Actually, one obvious counter-example I can spontaneously think of would be the user "loaded", who is participating both in the OTC market and on the exchanges.

Second, I am doubtful that large industrial-scale mining operations engage in the speculation business on top of their main (mining) business. They most likely have massive regular expenses for employees, electricity, rent and of course for new hardware in order to stay competitive in the race for a large slice of the hash rate pie. I'd say this indicates that a certain amount of coins has to be sold in order to keep the operations running. And even if they are engaging in speculation - this just means that another failed attempt at a sustained rally will force them to sell a bunch of their held-back coins as soon as they realize that new buyers are not coming in to carry the rally further. So, that gives me one more reason why I suspect this current rally to fail spectacularly once the bulls run out of steam and momentum begins to decline.

Third, you are arguing on the basis of a rally that has not materialized yet. All I see right now is an insignificant bounce that hardly registers on the 2y chart, which may or may not develop into something bigger. Which brings me back to my initial posting, where I suggest that the bullish sentiment is irrational at the moment: We just crashed from the worryingly low sub-400 levels to the shockingly low sub-300 levels. Not too long ago the vast majority here seemed to be convinced that we would never revisit such low prices again. Now we FINALLY had the first significant bounce after going down ~$400 all the way from $660 since this summer, but we are still struggling to even break back above $400. This does not seem very bullish to me, in fact I find it quite worrisome.

Also, we had a similar high-volume bounce situation back in march, right before the failed summer rally that couldn't carry itself beyond the $660 point, despite the bulls being immensely euphoric and going all in (as indicated by the all time high in the number of usd-swaps on finex). I don't see why it should turn out any different this time. A high volume bounce obviously does not guarantee a sustainable rally afterwards, but this seems to be the bulls' main argument for why the bear market is now supposedly behind us.

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/wsculley

Recent tweets = gonna be huge and bullish as fuck. Don't cut your loose. Next 24 are crit. CCMF!

 

Bitcoin....?    Oh Ripple???   FUCK THAT... u beee talkn bout the Rips....  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[brg444]

there is a fundamental misconception in your analysis that miners dump the coins they mine on exchanges, effectively putting pressure on the price.

[...]

First off, I never talked about coins being dumped on exchanges. Maybe you are mistaking me for someone else? Also, my assertion still stands that a continuously watered down supply side increases downward pressure on the price, and I see no use in arguing that. Maybe your position is that there is no intersection between the OTC market and exchanges, but I have no reason to believe that this is actually the case. Actually, one obvious counter-example I can spontaneously think of would be the user "loaded", who is participating both in the OTC market and on the exchanges.

Second, I am doubtful that large industrial-scale mining operations engage in the speculation business on top of their main (mining) business. They most likely have massive regular expenses for employees, electricity, rent and of course for new hardware in order to stay competitive in the race for a large slice of the hash rate pie. I'd say this indicates that a certain amount of coins has to be sold in order to keep the operations running. And even if they are engaging in speculation - this just means that another failed attempt at a sustained rally will force them to sell a bunch of their held-back coins as soon as they realize that new buyers are not coming in to carry the rally further. So, that gives me one more reason why I suspect this current rally to fail spectacularly once the bulls run out of steam and momentum begins to decline.

BitFury founder and CEO Valery Vavilov indicated that the new funding will allow the company to complete production of its 28nm ASIC chip without selling the reserve bitcoins it has mined from its three industrial-scale data centres.

Vavilov told CoinDesk that it decided not to tap its bitcoin reserves as it remains bullish on the long-term value of bitcoin.

“We believe in the long-term perspective [the price of bitcoin] will grow and we decided to not to sell [our bitcoin] at such a low price,” Vavilov added.

http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-raises-20-million-asic-development-mining-output/

This is from the CEO of one of most important industrial scale mining operations.

For most of them, the "massive regular expenses" are paid for by massive VC investements. Don't forget that these entities also sell mining rigs at massive profit.

Money came easily to startup KnCMiner, which says it made $70 million in revenue in its first year of operations from selling bitcoin mining equipment.

This money is more than enough to cover for expenses. There was a miner convention no later than last week that kind of drove this point home : miners are some of the most bullish actors in the BTC scene. It is misguided to assume that they are selling most of their coins.

I am not arguing your analysis of the market but I don't believe your "inflation" argument to be a valid concern