BitsharesX seems vulnerable to this, if true.

Here is the one-week resolution chart of Bitstamp prices. I drew a resistance trendline down from the November 2013 peak  and a support trendline touching the capitulations. It forms a bullish falling wedge pattern, which this site says is resolved by an upwards breakout 68% of the time.

The KDJ indicator on the bottom of the chart is saying oversold as the purple line has a value less than 20.

There was nothing positive or negative about that meeting. Nothing was decided it was just a Q&A session. Not well done, by the BTC side, either. They don't explain things well to those who aren't as technically savvy, which is unfortunate.

One thing I don't like about the Pantera theory - they seem to be legit bulls; believers in bitcoin's potential to help the world. So a willingness to relentlessly sell-down the market over a period of months, hurting otherwise rising confidence and positive public attention, doesn't quite fit. Unless they had some theory about the market being "overheated" and needing a "healthy" long correction or some such....but I doubt it.

Anyways, not saying it's impossible. Profit motives trumping ideals isn't exactly a special phenomenon.

i'm aware of that.  so why republish it 2d after the selloff?

2.  Pantera Capital, 2 days after the selloff, issues not only one but two uber bullish reports on Bitcoin.  its Bitcoin vs Gold report unapologetically and unabashedly forecasting $4.3M/BTC.  they don't normally publish this frequently:

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Bitcoin-vs-Gold.pdf

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-September-2014.pdf

Well, note that I said valuation, not price.

Predicting BTC price is virtually impossible, IMO.  I'd suspect that the value of BTC will continue to rise.  In my opinion (just one guy), the proper valuation metric might very well be what percentage of global M2 takes place in the form of BTC transactions (and also what percentage of global M2 is held in BTC as a store of value).

The price will continue to cross back and forth over that line at unpredictable intervals, kind of like this (pic is irrelevant, other that the fact that it's a graphic representation of what I'm talking about)



I suspect that, yes, the historical growth rate will change.  Two years ago, BTC was around $15.  Now it's around $350.  Will it continue to grow at a rate of 23x every 2 years?  I don't think we'll see:

2016: 8050
2018: 185,150
2020: 4,258,250 (at which point, BTC would, as pointed out above, equal total global M2)

So I guess that unless one subscribes to the Pantera document, growth in PRICE will slow moving forward.

That said, I'm a believer.  I love the protocol, the team, the adaptability.  Definitely NOT trying to start a fight about it.  If one buys BTC today at $350 and sells it at $2300 in 6 years, that is a fabulous return.  There will also be long periods where BTC is far, far above that value metric.  If the M2 metric says BTC is worth $2300, there is no reason to think that the price couldn't be 5x or 10x (or more) because markets, being forward-looking, might well price in future M2 transaction and store-of-value gains.

I don't know how anyone could think this, this seems so counterintuitive to me...

It ignores EVERY technology adoption curve out there.

As sgbett pointed out. It also ignores greed which is the biggest fuel for BTC's price rises.

This would suggest that as adoption grows and more people are acquainted with Bitcoin's value proposition the pool of potential adopter shrinks.

As far as I can understand it this is not how network effects behave. At least not until we have reached a halfway point in adoption where Bitcoin has become so widely spread there are fewer people not using/invested in it than there are Bitcoiners.

It seems so blatently obvious to me that the potential for a massive bubble increases every time Bitcoin becomes exposed to a more important percentage of the population and turns the eyes of bigger and bigger fiat whales.

don't listen to OP. does he know more than the early investors dumping $7 million on exchanges?

people on the inside are getting out and they need greater fools to buy their bags. past performance does not guarantee future gains, don't be anyone's fool. $50 is still overvalued for this market.

Or you can chose a respectable Bitcoin bank like www.circle.com which insures all deposits through Marsh Insurance. No artificial $250k limit either.

Why are you shitting up this thread?  If you have nothing to say, don't say it.

Nah.  He doesn't suffer fools gladly is all.  Everything in your post has been addressed previously, but I'll give you a TL;DR:
Since the dollar is a fiction, an unbacked abstraction created by teh evol banksters, what difference does it make how many zeros they need to add to that fiction?  It is no harder to create a billion dollars than it is to create one

For a bankrupt country, we're doing pretty well.  Which irrelevant backwater do you hail from?

When I turned 2k into 50k in the alt market I felt rich and literally dumped at 40% below market price because I wanted a new car.

If I had 10 mil, seriously I would not care how I sold it and even if I lost a couple of mil because I know I'd never see that money in my life anyway.

http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/06/what-is-happening-to-bitcoin-right-now/

Note the quote. Exactly what i was thinking. It makes the most sense of all theories i've heard yet it's the hardest to believe for most here for some reason.

"Seems pretty clear to me. An early adopter decided $300 is their breaking point. They want to cash out their $9m before they miss their chance. They’re not experienced with handling this amount of money because they’ve never been rich before; they just got lucky. They don’t have the connections to sell off-market so they decided to sell the way they know and the way that’s guaranteed to work: a Bitstamp sell order below market. They could maybe get more money with a more sophisticated trading strategy but who cares? They’ll take their $9m and retire on a beach somewhere for the rest of their lives.
That’s what I’d do if I had 30,000 BTC right now and I bet you would too."

The guy was looking at the price going down every hour and basically panic sold. Below 300 was just too much for him. He was losing 10.000's per day.
He moved the coins to Stamp, right away did a 5k dump to secure a good amount of money (his aim was a million) and when he saw there were buyers he put the rest up at 300.
Perfectly reasonable explanation.
He wasn't the bearwhale. He also isn't buying back. Just a guy who wanted out. Yes, that happens.

You lunatics think fiat is printed at will anyhow, so they'll just add a few zeros to the plates and keep the presses running longer, amirite?